What is up with Lucas Giolito?

[chitownsportsfan]

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Think of something you have done the exact same way your entire life, and try to do it differently.

I'm just a little confused how after a promising late summer and spring he's now turned into...whatever the hell this is.

 

[chitownsportsfan]

5 minutes ago, JoeCoolMan24 said:

IIRC, Eno or Jeff Sullivan or one of the saberheads had a list of biggest velocity spikes from 2017 to spring of 2018, and he cited Giolito as being #1 I believe, and seemed to buy in to the idea that he had turned it around.

he was def reaching 94-95 and commanding it.  it was why I was really optimistic.  it's just example 10^333 of why spring training is utterly worthless from a projection standpoint.

Edited April 26, 2018 by chitownsportsfan

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

1 minute ago, chitownsportsfan said:

he was def reaching 94-95 and commanding it.  it was why I was really optimistic.  it's just example 10^333 of why sprint training is utterly worthless from a projection standpoint.

When it comes to results, Spring means nothing. But when he made a change to his mechanics that allowed him to have command, and he added a few ticks of velocity, those are things that should carry over from spring, not the numbers.

[caulfield12]

http://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=34710.1125

Here are 46 pages of posts on the Giolito/Lopez/Dunning trade from Nationals' fans.

Interesting reading.  Of course, lots of obvious comments that Eaton hasn't been on the field enough for WASH, either.

 

His (Lopez's) control seems to get worse and worse. I think the moves the Nats made to their development staff especially pitching wise sent some shockwaves especially when it looked like the guys the Nats traded away started to turn things around. Now, maybe it's not as shocking that those guys still look like they have a long ways to go, but that still doesn't cover up the fact that the system has been pretty low on pitching in general for a few years now.

 

Re: Eaton for Giolito Lopez and Dunning

« Reply #1130: April 02, 2018, 10:37:31 AM »

 

This entire trade will be a referendum on Rizzo and the development staff's ability to project prospects. If you are someone who bought into the high rankings for Giolito and Lopez, then this trade was and is a massive overpay. But it looks like Rizzo and company had a much cooler view and so far it looks like they may be right.

I was really against the trade at first but after seeing the pitchers not really impress so far I have moved from being negative on the trade to wait and see.

 

Re: Eaton for Giolito Lopez and Dunning

« Reply #1131: April 02, 2018, 10:51:08 AM »

 

Giolito will be fine.  he's a rotation regular.  He's not going to be Stras 2.0, but he'll give Chicago 6 years of nice #3 results with a chance for more.  No worse than a righty Gio.

[Jake]

11 hours ago, JoeCoolMan24 said:

IIRC, Eno or Jeff Sullivan or one of the saberheads had a list of biggest velocity spikes from 2017 to spring of 2018, and he cited Giolito as being #1 I believe, and seemed to buy in to the idea that he had turned it around.

This isn't quite that, but here's Jeff Sullivan on Giolito in the spring: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-watch-lucas-giolito-look-very-good/

Quote

The White Sox broadcast talked to Don Cooper during the middle of the game, after Giolito had thrown his final pitch. According to Cooper, Giolito had been throwing his fastball around 94-95 miles per hour. As I’ll note one more time, it’s spring training, which means we don’t get confirmation here from Statcast. We sort of have to take Cooper at his word.

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

20 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I'm just a little confused how after a promising late summer and spring he's now turned into...whatever the hell this is.

 

You worry too much . If this was mid season in optimal weather for getting an arm loose and warm and it happened 5 or 6 starts in a row then you could worry. With dead arm and cold weather typical of early season crap  just give him until June of so before you actually panic. We can't expect all these young guys to end up injury free anyway. Just look at all the Mets young pitchers for how things go for for starters these days. Throw a bunch together and seems like half end up with arm problems. Guess I'm not helping you worry any less . Sorry.

[Jake]

At 91.9mph, yesterday's game was Giolito's best average fastball velocity so far this year (was 91.2 in the opening weekend start, his best up to yesterday). That being said, it would have been tied for his slowest velo start among his 2016 and 2017 appearances.

[Eminor3rd]

I got extremely excited when his velo was up/arm slot down in the Spring. ST stats don't predict much if anything, but mechanical and procedural changes generally do.

But if the velo is back down, and the fastball doesn't have more run, he's not even going to be a #3. This version of Giolito only has one weapon (the curveball), and he can't command or control it well enough to use it more than sparingly.

Is it the cold? I don't know, but I hope so.

[TheTruth05]

20 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

I got extremely excited when his velo was up/arm slot down in the Spring. ST stats don't predict much if anything, but mechanical and procedural changes generally do.

But if the velo is back down, and the fastball doesn't have more run, he's not even going to be a #3. This version of Giolito only has one weapon (the curveball), and he can't command or control it well enough to use it more than sparingly.

Is it the cold? I don't know, but I hope so.

I agree,i thought restoring to his old mechanics was finally paying off when the ST results we're coming in but now we know it was probably just a hot gun. I understand he's still a work in progress and no one is pushing him (yet) to figure it out but if he can't regain that velocity he's not going to be much of a core piece that we imagined,if a piece at all.

Edited April 27, 2018 by TheTruth05

[hogan873]

Giolito looked a lot more comfortable out there yesterday  not as good as he looked in ST.  Hopefully this is a turning around in progress.  The next few starts will tell the story.

[Jack Parkman]

Today is another positive step. I won't completely rule out a velocity jump for him until we get through the 2019 season and it still hasn't returned. I'm starting to get a little more skeptical that his plus velocity will return, but I'm still holding out a glimmer of hope that he's still working on control and repetition of his delivery. I'm not sure he can be much more than a back end of the rotation pitcher with where he is currently. 

Edited May 3, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

7 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Today is another positive step. I won't completely rule out a velocity jump for him until we get through the 2019 season and it still hasn't returned. I'm starting to get a little more skeptical that his plus velocity will return, but I'm still holding out a glimmer of hope that he's still working on control and repetition of his delivery. I'm not sure he can be much more than a back end of the rotation pitcher with where he is currently. 

Yesterday was his highest average velocity of the season and was back to the 93 he was hanging out at last year. 

[BigHurt3515]

13 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Yesterday was his highest average velocity of the season and was back to the 93 he was hanging out at last year. 

I was watching the stadium gun the whole game and he was at 92-92 pretty consistently until later in the game when he was more 90-91 with an occasional 92.

[kwolf68]

Taking time, but Gio has had two starts that were encouraging since the debacle against Oakland. I think he'll be around 94 by next month. Combine that with improved command and we're SET. Keep in mind we do  NOT need Gio to be a top of the rotation starter, Kopech and Rodon slot more to that level. With ReyRey showing great signs, Gio in the #4 slot would be extremely pleasing. Especially if he continues to settle down here in 2018.

[Balta1701]

36 minutes ago, kwolf68 said:

Taking time, but Gio has had two starts that were encouraging since the debacle against Oakland. I think he'll be around 94 by next month. Combine that with improved command and we're SET. Keep in mind we do  NOT need Gio to be a top of the rotation starter, Kopech and Rodon slot more to that level. With ReyRey showing great signs, Gio in the #4 slot would be extremely pleasing. Especially if he continues to settle down here in 2018.

I for one don't think of Rodon as a top of the rotation starter right now, so getting Giolito into a #2 spot would be really quite nice to me.

[chitownsportsfan]

Yesterday was the first time I think he's flashed that really good breaking ball and command on all pitches that we saw in spring.  Velocity was good if not ideal.  He'll have a lot more margin for error with his command and breaking stuff if he was at 93-95 instead of 91-93 but at least he improved a couple ticks yesterday.

It's a completely stat free observation but he seems to really struggle from the stretch.  Don't know if it's a mental issue or physical issue or somewhat of both.  I think part of it is that he just can't challenge hitters with his fastball like Lopez can when he's behind in the count and needs an out.  I mean he tried and gave up the dinger.  Think that was a 91mph fastball dead middle.  If that's at 95 maybe he fouls it back.

At this point I don't really see any reason to consider him a TOR future talent.  Looks like he should settle in around a decent 3 or a good 4 if he can come out more often than not with the stuff he had last night.

[bmags]

1 hour ago, kwolf68 said:

Taking time, but Gio has had two starts that were encouraging since the debacle against Oakland. I think he'll be around 94 by next month. Combine that with improved command and we're SET. Keep in mind we do  NOT need Gio to be a top of the rotation starter, Kopech and Rodon slot more to that level. With ReyRey showing great signs, Gio in the #4 slot would be extremely pleasing. Especially if he continues to settle down here in 2018.

I hope this is the case but the things giolito builds on seem to fall apart so quickly. Honestly just doesn't seem to be the same incremental process as with everyone else. 

It's like he's trying to hold as many cans as possible, and as they add another to the pile he doesn't just drop one or two, they all fall out and he starts the process over.

[southsider2k5]

 

[Jack Parkman]

5 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Yesterday was his highest average velocity of the season and was back to the 93 he was hanging out at last year. 

I was actually going to post that. I understand how to read the graph in that the dot is the average for the outing, and that the line is the minimum and maximum velocities for the start,  There are zero data points on them, so I'm a little confused. 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

I was actually going to post that. I understand how to read the graph in that the dot is the average for the outing, and that the line is the minimum and maximum velocities for the start,  There are zero data points on them, so I'm a little confused. 

What do you mean by "there are zero data points on them" - are you asking why each individual pitch isn't shown? 

[Jack Parkman]

21 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

What do you mean by "there are zero data points on them" - are you asking why each individual pitch isn't shown? 

Yeah, kinda for clustering purposes, and I'd improve by marking min, max and average with a number. 

Edited May 3, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

Yeah, kinda for clustering purposes, and I'd improve by marking min, max and average with a number. 

well they're also going to make the graph simpler, if you had 50 data points on each of those lines and 3 numbers on each of those lines, for a pitcher making 30 starts it becomes unreadable.

[Jack Parkman]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

well they're also going to make the graph simpler, if you had 50 data points on each of those lines and 3 numbers on each of those lines, for a pitcher making 30 starts it becomes unreadable.

Not really, but I understand the simple thing. I'd just prefer the clustered data. It gives more info. At the very least minimum maximum and average should be marked with a number instead of just having to eyeball it. 

Edited May 3, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Donaldo]

In 2017, Lucas averaged 2.4 BB/9 IP.

In 2018 he's averaging 6.9 BB/9 IP.

 

I knew it was bad, but I didn't realize it was this bad.

[Dick Allen]

He was much better tonight when he started throwing strikes. I don’t think he threw 3strikes in a row until the 3rd or 4th inning. 

 

I can’t understand pitchers trying to nibble on the corners the first pitch. There is such a huge difference 1-0vs. 0-1,and there are so many hitters who either won’t swing at the first pitch or require it be in a very specific spot, pitchers can get away with throwing meatballs then most of the time. And with sabermetrics and emphasis on pitches per AB, that is only going to grow. Pitchers need to use it to there advantage and get ahead in the count instead of trying to throw a perfect pitch. O-1; then they may chase your bullshit.