What is up with Lucas Giolito?

[Dam8610]

13 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

I agree. To me, his stuff just isn't MLB-quality at this point, and refinement of his command won;t change that. I would think they'd want to try some mechanical changes that could unlock more velocity or movement, and the place to do that is definitely the minors.

 

Everything in the gamethread from last night suggested he looked downright good for the first few innings before it all unraveled. Several comments about sitting 93-94 with command and that pitch working well, as well as having a much crisper curveball. I didn't watch the game last night, but from those who did, it didn't seem like his stuff was the problem, at least not early.

[Kyyle23]

8 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

Everything in the gamethread from last night suggested he looked downright good for the first few innings before it all unraveled. Several comments about sitting 93-94 with command and that pitch working well, as well as having a much crisper curveball. I didn't watch the game last night, but from those who did, it didn't seem like his stuff was the problem, at least not early.

After i said Smith was making him throw his curve, and he is spotting it, he blew up

 

im not gonna apologize and take the superstition blame because he does that shit all the time

[TaylorStSox]

There is a danger with young starting pitchers on bad teams, especially with kids that aren't overly confident. To me it seems like he's constantly second guessing himself, especially with his mechanics. 

[southsider2k5]

16 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Last night when he fell apart I wondered if the same would have happened down in AAA (for whatever reasons) or if he could have righted the ship (again for whatever reasons) down there and walked out of his start with some confidence for next time.  The Indians broadcast had an extended shot of him in the dugout after he left and in the game thread I described it as "bad body language guy".  He just seemed deflated but he did come out early and actually look like a fairly talented young pitcher -- he just lost it at the slightest sign of some adversity.

Let him try and work out his issues against lower competition with less pressure so maybe next time he faces some adversity at the MLB level he can remember how he fought through it at a lower level.

If he still stinks in AAA then it was never going to work but it's hard to see him "working through this" in MLB,  last night is just more evidence for that.

The problem is with lower competition it can be hard to tell if he has figured out the problem, or superior stuff against flawed kids is what is doing it.  If he is able to go 5 innings on a regular basis, I want him here.  If he can't, he leaves the team no choice but to send him down.

[Eminor3rd]

32 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

Everything in the gamethread from last night suggested he looked downright good for the first few innings before it all unraveled. Several comments about sitting 93-94 with command and that pitch working well, as well as having a much crisper curveball. I didn't watch the game last night, but from those who did, it didn't seem like his stuff was the problem, at least not early.

I watched half of it -- He was 90-92 after about the second inning. He walked four batters over five innings. His 7.00+ ERA went up a bit.

[ptatc]

55 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

I agree. To me, his stuff just isn't MLB-quality at this point, and refinement of his command won;t change that. I would think they'd want to try some mechanical changes that could unlock more velocity or movement, and the place to do that is definitely the minors.

 

I think his stuff can play in the MLB. I really like the curevball he was throwing yesterday. The only problem was that it dropped so much he couldn't keep it in the zone and it didn't fool anyone. He needs to find a better release point to drop it in the zone. In the minors I could see the less patient hitters swinging at those and giving his stats a false positive. As long as the aren't trying to compete his bast place to test the stuff is in the MLB.

[kwolf68]

Gio has been dreadful beyond belief this year, but the Sox need to let him work it out. Maybe he just needs to be skipped in the rotation. Let him clear his head and bring him back. For the life of me I can't understand why he is so much different than the guy who was pitching here last year. Mind boggling. 

[Dick Allen]

2 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I think his stuff can play in the MLB. I really like the curevball he was throwing yesterday. The only problem was that it dropped so much he couldn't keep it in the zone and it didn't fool anyone. He needs to find a better release point to drop it in the zone. In the minors I could see the less patient hitters swinging at those and giving his stats a false positive. As long as the aren't trying to compete his bast place to test the stuff is in the MLB.

Yes, but the White Sox wouldn't go by stats alone. They would know if he's getting by because his pitches that would never be swung at are being swung at in a lower level. I don't know what good having the same thing happen over and over and over again is doing. Maybe if someone is swinging at his crap he gets some confidence, and might be able to throw strikes on a more regular basis. Something has to change, eventually. 

[Dam8610]

3 minutes ago, kwolf68 said:

Gio has been dreadful beyond belief this year, but the Sox need to let him work it out. Maybe he just needs to be skipped in the rotation. Let him clear his head and bring him back. For the life of me I can't understand why he is so much different than the guy who was pitching here last year. Mind boggling. 

His BABIP was .189 and his stand rate was 92% last year. He's much worse in both categories with a walk rate that has more than doubled and a K rate that has almost halved. Based on those numbers, it's not mind boggling at all.

[kwolf68]

Just now, Dam8610 said:

His BABIP was .189 and his stand rate was 92% last year. He's much worse in both categories with a walk rate that has more than doubled and a K rate that has almost halved. Based on those numbers, it's not mind boggling at all.

That's kinda my point. I get the numbers, but the dude has fallen off the proverbial cliff. And has shown almost no signs of getting it back. 

[Dam8610]

5 minutes ago, kwolf68 said:

That's kinda my point. I get the numbers, but the dude has fallen off the proverbial cliff. And has shown almost no signs of getting it back. 

The BABIP and strand rate were meant to show that some regression would've been expected, while the walk and K rates play to your point that he just doesn't have it this year.

[kwolf68]

Just now, Dam8610 said:

The BABIP and strand rate were meant to show that some regression would've been expected, while the walk and K rates play to your point that he just doesn't have it this year.

 

I never thought the strand rate was a true indicator of Gio. I think he will always trend high there. I am going by the eye test. Last year in games I saw he looked in control, confident, competent. Now he looks completely clueless and lost. 

[Eminor3rd]

20 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I think his stuff can play in the MLB. I really like the curevball he was throwing yesterday. The only problem was that it dropped so much he couldn't keep it in the zone and it didn't fool anyone. He needs to find a better release point to drop it in the zone. In the minors I could see the less patient hitters swinging at those and giving his stats a false positive. As long as the aren't trying to compete his bast place to test the stuff is in the MLB.

Basically I just mean that if he needs to change something mechanically or with his pitch movement, I think he should do it in the minors. If's it's a matter of practice and refinement, then he should stay up and work on it.

I agree the curve looks great, but most guys that have good curves get their swinging strikes out of the zone with it. His problem is that it's his only serviceable pitch, which makes it easy to lay off. 

[Eminor3rd]

12 minutes ago, kwolf68 said:

That's kinda my point. I get the numbers, but the dude has fallen off the proverbial cliff. And has shown almost no signs of getting it back. 

What Dam was saying is that the numbers from last year actually show that he ISN'T much of a different guy. The ERA was the only thing that was low -- none of the peripherals supported success at all. He was "good" last year in almost exactly the same way that Shields was "good" that year with the Padres before we got him.

The reason many of us felt excited this year was because it appeared that his velocity was significantly up this spring, and that he had lowered his arm slot (which is commonly done to increase velocity and horizontal movement), so it looked like there was evidence that he was unlocking some potential. But none of those things stuck once the season started. His stuff is just like it was last year -- hammer curve that he commands inconsistently paired with a below average fastball.

He'll have some good starts when guys are hitting the ball at defenders, but there's nothing "under the hood" that is suggesting any sustained success.

[ptatc]

16 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

Basically I just mean that if he needs to change something mechanically or with his pitch movement, I think he should do it in the minors. If's it's a matter of practice and refinement, then he should stay up and work on it.

I agree the curve looks great, but most guys that have good curves get their swinging strikes out of the zone with it. His problem is that it's his only serviceable pitch, which makes it easy to lay off. 

If they were trying to compete, I would agree. But since it's a wasted year, they may as well see how the stuff is playing with MLB hitters. He  needs to spot the FB and change in the zone so they chase the CB. Or get the CB dropped in the zone and chase the others. 

I liked the way he was "pitching backwards" with starting with the CB, he just needs to get some in the zone.

[ptatc]

37 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Yes, but the White Sox wouldn't go by stats alone. They would know if he's getting by because his pitches that would never be swung at are being swung at in a lower level. I don't know what good having the same thing happen over and over and over again is doing. Maybe if someone is swinging at his crap he gets some confidence, and might be able to throw strikes on a more regular basis. Something has to change, eventually. 

I'm not sure sending him down would really be of benefit. He always had a k:BB ratio of at least 2:1 or higher. I think the more patient hitters in the MLB just lay off the big CB out of the zone that is so effective in the minors. Since it's a wasted year anyway, they may as well leave him here and see if he can't figure out a way to get it done. At the end of the year or next year when it's time for others to come up, he may run out of time.

[pcq]

On 6/11/2018 at 10:11 AM, [email protected] said:

Also almost all of his pitches are terrible. We knew his FB is bad if it is under 95 (straight and mediocre spin) and his change isn't the greatest but his CB which was highly touted also has negative pitch value on FG.

 

the only pitch with a positive value is his slider. that is a good thing and maybe he should ramp it's usage up but then again it is just one good pitch. maybe this at least gives him a reliever floor because one solid pitch obviously isn't getting it done twice or thrice through the lineup.

If what you say is true we should agree he is a rehab project for the minors and gets his last shot next spring. More likely they keep him in the pen once another SP gets promoted.  Gio's mind and body are on a strange journey. Where does he fit ?

[Donaldo]

On 6/12/2018 at 11:42 AM, Dam8610 said:

Everything in the gamethread from last night suggested he looked downright good for the first few innings before it all unraveled. Several comments about sitting 93-94 with command and that pitch working well, as well as having a much crisper curveball. I didn't watch the game last night, but from those who did, it didn't seem like his stuff was the problem, at least not early.

I thought innings 1-3 were his best of the season.  He lost command in the 4th, and all hell broke loose.

[Jack Parkman]

2 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Most people are  waaaay too negative on Giolito. He sucks right now, but if he wasn't a major project he wouldn't have been available for Adam Eaton. If he was the consensus top pitching prospect in baseball that they thought he was a year earlier when he was traded in 2016, I don't think Eaton would have been enough to acquire him from the Nationals. In fact, it probably would have taken Mike Trout to acquire him at that point. He would have been untouchable for all intents and purposes. You have to accept that Giolito is much more risk than reward. He's a lottery ticket. If Coop can get him to 85% of the guy he was in 2015 that is a huge win. Also, you have to understand that the light either will or won't come on for him at the 300-400 IP range. Yes, we all have to be that patient. As long as he's getting his stuff back and making strides with command and control that is all we should ask of him at this point. Don't look at progress on a start by start basis, but a month by month basis. 

This is what I wrote in another thread and I think it belongs here as a PSA to everyone about Giolito.

Edited June 15, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[WBWSF]

I realize that this 2018 White Sox season is a rebuild/tanking/throwing up the white flag season. Still. to have Giolito continue in the White Sox rotation is a farce. Is Hahn too stubborn to face the fact that Giolito can't get anybody out. They sent Fulmer down to the minors earlier this season simply because he didn't get the job done. Its beginning to look like this so called rebuild is really going to take years before it becomes successful. Too many players counted on to turn this team around are not performing as well as expected. Giolito should join Fulmer in the minor leagues. Hopefully he can turn his career around down there.

[Dan of Steel]

6 minutes ago, WBWSF said:

I realize that this 2018 White Sox season is a rebuild/tanking/throwing up the white flag season. Still. to have Giolito continue in the White Sox rotation is a farce. Is Hahn too stubborn to face the fact that Giolito can't get anybody out. They sent Fulmer down to the minors earlier this season simply because he didn't get the job done. Its beginning to look like this so called rebuild is really going to take years before it becomes successful. Too many players counted on to turn this team around are not performing as well as expected. Giolito should join Fulmer in the minor leagues. Hopefully he can turn his career around down there.

Neither of those guys are major players in the rebuild. In fact, pretty much nobody on the current MLB roster with the exception of Anderson and Moncada are major parts of the rebuild. You have disappointments and surprises, so we just have to see things play out. The Sox have a lot of talent that's going to emerge within the next season, so just R-E-L-A-X. As long as there are guys who surprise to match some of the disappointments, this rebuild will be fine. 

[fathom]

6 minutes ago, Dan of Steel said:

Neither of those guys are major players in the rebuild. In fact, pretty much nobody on the current MLB roster with the exception of Anderson and Moncada are major parts of the rebuild. You have disappointments and surprises, so we just have to see things play out. The Sox have a lot of talent that's going to emerge within the next season, so just R-E-L-A-X. As long as there are guys who surprise to match some of the disappointments, this rebuild will be fine. 

Giolito was absolutely supposed to be part of the rotation for when they're contenders. Hopefully Covey becomes a member.

[Flash]

11 minutes ago, Dan of Steel said:

Neither of those guys are major players in the rebuild. In fact, pretty much nobody on the current MLB roster with the exception of Anderson and Moncada are major parts of the rebuild. You have disappointments and surprises, so we just have to see things play out. The Sox have a lot of talent that's going to emerge within the next season, so just R-E-L-A-X. As long as there are guys who surprise to match some of the disappointments, this rebuild will be fine. 

Not major players in rebuild due to poor performance, especially Giolito. Fortunately, Lopez looks like a serviceable rotation piece and Dunning a potential bright spot as far as the Nats trade goes. As far as the Sale trade, it looked much better on paper than the current reality.  

[WBWSF]

I've sat through a few seminars with Hahn and he mentioned at those seminars he expected Fulmer and Giolito to be major parts of the rebuild.

[wrathofhahn]

13 minutes ago, WBWSF said:

I've sat through a few seminars with Hahn and he mentioned at those seminars he expected Fulmer and Giolito to be major parts of the rebuild.

I think they've been hoping he regained his stuff which declined slightly and is part of the reason the Nationals moved him.

But besides this there was always going to be busts in this rebuild. It's part of the reason why do we have too much pitching is sort of laughable. Young guys get TJ. They bust. About the only position I feel good about in the minors is the OF. We'd have to have a whole host of guys bust to not get three guys from that group.