Davidson's Future

[BlackSox13]

I give Davidson credit, he looked good at 3B. Especially since he hasn't played there much this season.

 

So far he's making me eat my words and hope he keeps it up.

[greg775]

Matt has 11 homers. He has more homers than the team has wins.

[soxfan49]

11 hours ago, greg775 said:

Matt has 11 homers. He has more homers than the team has wins.

He also leads the team in RBI's.

 

17 hours ago, greg775 said:

I've decided Matt is a Paulie clone for certain. Good career coming folks.

I hope you're right, Greg. Hard to see this but that'd be awesome.

[zisk]

With a little luck, he might end up playing regularly for bad teams for 5-6 more years. With more luck he could be a sub for a good team for 5-6 years. He'd make more money on a bad team though. Plus, some guys can't hit when playing twice a week.

[soxfan49]

2 minutes ago, zisk said:

With a little luck, he might end up playing regularly for bad teams for 5-6 more years. With more luck he could be a sub for a good team for 5-6 years. He'd make more money on a bad team though. Plus, some guys can't hit when playing twice a week.

I don't know if he's a .950+ OPS guy for the rest of his prime, but if he is, he's a starter on a good team.

[soxfan49]

1 minute ago, Tony said:

Right now, he projects for a 2018 of: 

 

504 ABs, 131 hits, 48 HR, 105 RBI, .261/.383/.591/.974

And to only have that many RBI would be pretty unlucky. He's hitting a ton of solo HR's, albeit the 3 run homer from Saturday. Eventually there will be some guys on base for his bombs. Only way he ends with 105 RBI is if he hits somewhere closer to 33-35 HR.

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

I don't know if he's a .950+ OPS guy for the rest of his prime, but if he is, he's a starter on a good team.

With a .950 OPS he'd be almost Mike Trout.  He'd be better than Stanton's career average.  I think that would be more like Hall of Famer is he did that for the rest of his prime.

[soxfan49]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

With a .950 OPS he'd be almost Mike Trout.  He'd be better than Stanton's career average.  I think that would be more like Hall of Famer is he did that for the rest of his prime.

That's my point. Even if he has a 870-900 OPS, he's a starter on the 2020 and 2021 teams here. That'd be an unbelievable turnaround.

[turnin' two]

17 hours ago, greg775 said:

I've decided Matt is a Paulie clone for certain. Good career coming folks.

I don't see this at all.  Very different hitters.  PK hit over .290 7 times.  I have a hard time seeing Davidson doing that, even if I squint really hard.  PK hit 30 doubles or more 8 times.  PK averaged fewer than 100 K's per 162.

 

They both have power yes.  But if part of Davidson's season this year has been his great ability to draw walks.  That was never a huge part of Konerko's game.  He walked, but it wasn't really a defining characteristic.  Davidson has been really good this year,certainly useful and he could continue to be a valuable part of this team moving forward if he keeps it up.  They just seem like very different hitters to me with very different approaches.  

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, soxfan49 said:

That's my point. Even if he has a 870-900 OPS, he's a starter on the 2020 and 2021 teams here. That'd be an unbelievable turnaround.

I've been hoping for .850 ish, but no this is not an "unbelievable turnaround" if you count all the guys we have who might have turned into something. I had a list of like 10 this offseason, Davidson included, and I kept saying "if we get 2 or 3 big leaguers out of these guys then we've done a great job". Giving guys who have talent but who have early career struggles the time they need to break out is why it was important that we play the kids this year and take our lumps. Some of these guys were going to turn into big leaguers eventually.

[soxfan49]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

I've been hoping for .850 ish, but no this is not an "unbelievable turnaround" if you count all the guys we have who might have turned into something. I had a list of like 10 this offseason, Davidson included, and I kept saying "if we get 2 or 3 big leaguers out of these guys then we've done a great job". Giving guys who have talent but who have early career struggles the time they need to break out is why it was important that we play the kids this year and take our lumps. Some of these guys were going to turn into big leaguers eventually.

Davidson went from being a HR or bust hitter who never walked and struck out a ton, and then 6 months later, he's a smart hitter, can go to the opposite field, still hit a ton of homers, walk a decent amount and strike out much less. To me, that's unbelievable for a guy that a lot of us assumed was a rebuild filler and would never reach the potential he once had.

[Chisoxfn]

2 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

Davidson went from being a HR or bust hitter who never walked and struck out a ton, and then 6 months later, he's a smart hitter, can go to the opposite field, still hit a ton of homers, walk a decent amount and strike out much less. To me, that's unbelievable for a guy that a lot of us assumed was a rebuild filler and would never reach the potential he once had.

Technically didn't Davidson have a pretty good walk rate in the minors, so it was more that last year's walk rate was an abberation from his historical levels.  Davidson clearly has made strides and part of this rebuild is being able to give guys who have some potential time to see how they adjust.  Kudos to Davidson because I never saw him even having the career he's already had at the major league level.  Good to see him making progress from year 1 in the bigs to year 2 and hopefully we see more of that and have found a nice LT piece in the lineup.  

[Balta1701]

17 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

Davidson went from being a HR or bust hitter who never walked and struck out a ton, and then 6 months later, he's a smart hitter, can go to the opposite field, still hit a ton of homers, walk a decent amount and strike out much less. To me, that's unbelievable for a guy that a lot of us assumed was a rebuild filler and would never reach the potential he once had.

The trick is the bolded here. When you have 10 guys who were thought at one point to have potential and who got to the big leagues, if you give them playing time, a couple of them will turn into something useful. That is what we're doing this year, filtering those guys out. I'm genuinely surprised that Delmonico isn't hitting better, but that's how things turn out, some guys break out and others don't. 

[Eminor3rd]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The trick is the bolded here. When you have 10 guys who were thought at one point to have potential and who got to the big leagues, if you give them playing time, a couple of them will turn into something useful. That is what we're doing this year, filtering those guys out. I'm genuinely surprised that Delmonico isn't hitting better, but that's how things turn out, some guys break out and others don't. 

Right -- this is "the process."

[maggsmaggs]

According to Fangraphs, Davidson is third (after JD Martinez and Moncada) in hard hit balls at 51.4 percent. And his home runs (just based on my own memory) have mostly been no-doubters, so it's not like Davidson is getting lucky either. 

[southsider2k5]

37 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

That's my point. Even if he has a 870-900 OPS, he's a starter on the 2020 and 2021 teams here. That'd be an unbelievable turnaround.

Even that is perennial all-star level. 

[soxfan49]

10 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Even that is perennial all-star level. 

Correct. The thought process that he's still a rebuild filler is a popular one, but I'm leaning the other way. I think he could be an .870 OPS guy at the minimum, especially with his power in that ballpark with his ever-improving eye at the plate.

Not sure he'll ever hit .280 or better, but .250 with 35 homers is an extremely valuable piece of a contending team.

Edited May 14, 2018 by soxfan49

[bmags]

15 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The trick is the bolded here. When you have 10 guys who were thought at one point to have potential and who got to the big leagues, if you give them playing time, a couple of them will turn into something useful. That is what we're doing this year, filtering those guys out. I'm genuinely surprised that Delmonico isn't hitting better, but that's how things turn out, some guys break out and others don't. 

The one thing that I've soured on a bit on this, is when players "surprise" you like this, I am still unlikely to trust them in a multi-year sample. That's the problem with delmonico, his eoy slump included, his approach and swing just looked the part. But, anyway, main point is that even if a player surprises, I'm not sure I'll be a believer in them if they are bat-only.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, bmags said:

The one thing that I've soured on a bit on this, is when players "surprise" you like this, I am still unlikely to trust them in a multi-year sample. That's the problem with delmonico, his eoy slump included, his approach and swing just looked the part. But, anyway, main point is that even if a player surprises, I'm not sure I'll be a believer in them if they are bat-only.

See also Garcia, Avi.

[soxfan49]

Just now, bmags said:

The one thing that I've soured on a bit on this, is when players "surprise" you like this, I am still unlikely to trust them in a multi-year sample. That's the problem with delmonico, his eoy slump included, his approach and swing just looked the part. But, anyway, main point is that even if a player surprises, I'm not sure I'll be a believer in them if they are bat-only.

But I don't think anyone ever assumed much defensively for Davidson. To my recollection, I've only ever heard DH associated with him.

[bmags]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

See also Garcia, Avi.

Yes exactly. But that's why I was fine playing him out since I just didn't think he was much of a trade chip and it didn't matter. I just don't really knwo what to do with the info of "unlikely guy had better than expected year".

[thxfrthmmrs]

Davidson makes a great story for prospects overcoming struggles and I am rooting for the guy, but I am still worried about his K%. He's still around 30% and I'd like to see it below 25% going forward. Players with that high of a K% has a higher propensity to struggle over a long period of time. Simply put, his 38% HR/FB (firmly 2nd in the league by a huge margin) is not sustainable.

[thxfrthmmrs]

24 minutes ago, maggsmaggs said:

According to Fangraphs, Davidson is third (after JD Martinez and Moncada) in hard hit balls at 51.4 percent. And his home runs (just based on my own memory) have mostly been no-doubters, so it's not like Davidson is getting lucky either. 

I actually think he's getting luckier. Leaders in hard hit % last few seasons has been around 45% (Judge, Gallo, Ortiz). I don't think Davidson has power like those guys. His hard hit % last season was 38%. Let's say he regressed to somewhere between 38% and 45%, his HR total is going to come down. Also with that kind of hard hit %, it could also suggest he's selling out contact for more power, and if pitchers makes some adjustment with him, he'd likely to rack up more Ks and less hits and home runs. 

[Balta1701]

6 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

I actually think he's getting luckier. Leaders in hard hit % last few seasons has been around 45% (Judge, Gallo, Ortiz). I don't think Davidson has power like those guys. His hard hit % last season was 38%. Let's say he regressed to somewhere between 38% and 45%, his HR total is going to come down. Also with that kind of hard hit %, it could also suggest he's selling out contact for more power, and if pitchers makes some adjustment with him, he'd likely to rack up more Ks and less hits and home runs. 

I think Davidson certainly has power comparable to those guys, but yes his numbers are likely to come down from where they are right now. Drop the HR rate somewhat and he's still shaping up like a useful player.

[Jose Abreu]

I think this is all part of White Sox hitters' gigantic plot to have one really good, flukey season to prevent Abreu from ever getting chosen for another all-star game!