10 Market inefficiencies for White Sox to exploit

[caulfield12]

1)  The city of Chicago itself...one of the 3-5 most attractive destinations for any Free Agent.  This will come into play this coming offseason, and was already arguably an element of the decision for Luis Robert to choose the Sox over the Cards.

2)  More available payroll space after 2018 and 2019 than any team in MLB

3)  The AL Central is in a "down" cycle with Cleveland already having peaked.  Five of the bottom 12 MLB teams in attendance, which is especially important for Cleveland and Minnesota.   Ilitch Sr. is no longer overspending in DET.   Royals and Tigers both on downcycles with poor farm system and lots of bad veteran contracts.  Twins will lose Mauer, Dozier, Santana, etc.   Sano and Buxton not interested in signing long-term extensions, same with Berrios (so far).

4)  Storied connection to Latin American players (and Cubans in particular)...one of the few Hispanic managers in the game, with Omar Vizquel trailing in his footsteps.    Potential stars in Rodon, Moncada, Jimenez, Luis Robert, R. Lopez, Adolfo, Basabe, etc.    Abreu and Alexei Ramirez have set the tone in the last decade, following in the footsteps of Minnie Minoso, Jose Contreras, El Duque, Luis Aparicio, Chico Carrasquel, etc.

5)  Don Cooper's success with pitching and Herm Schneider's with keeping players off the DL (Burger injury notwithstanding)...they will be challenged to earn their money the next 3-5 years.   Dave Duncan also in place as a valued consultant, Thome on the offensive side.

6)  Interest in the Cubs is peaking (might have already peaked)...following that team is becoming increasingly expensive for even upper middle class families.  Team looks like it will be tripped up with payroll issues in the future due to Heyward and Darvish.  By the time the White Sox fully arrive in 2020, their remaining competitive window will be in its 2 final years, in all likelihood.

7)  Top 3 Farm System...and looking to add even more talent in 2018 and probably another 8-12 pick in 2019.  I'm not going to bother to cover it all because it's done on a nightly basis, but the system is generally on an upward trend, other than the concerns about Burger (acute), Robert and Hansen.

?   For some reason, an 8 is unavailable, lol...but it's the fact that the White Sox have been the only team who had three marquee talents (Sale, Q and Eaton) to jump start the rebuild, and the timing for those moves worked out nearly perfectly (Moncada struggling in 20 at-bats with Boston, compared to Benintendi and Devers), and then the Cubs' desperation to part with Jimenez and Cease in order to get an established anchor for the middle of their rotation.

9)  TV contract negotiations coming just in time to allow the White Sox to add another $25-35 million to payroll comfortably without breaking a sweat.

10)  Biggest free agent class coming up in the 2018-19 off-season, which is the White Sox are well-positioned to be in the market for any player on the board, even Harper and Machado (should they desire to dip their toes in the deep end of the pool again).

 

I'll add one more....we still probably will need to go outside the organization for an elite closer or set-up guy (Kimbrel/Miller, etc.), but we have an abundance of young pitching talent, and some of the leftovers will naturally fit into our bullpen, supplemented with 2-3 veteran signings. 

 

 

Edited May 10, 2018 by caulfield12

[oldsox]

Regarding Free Agency next off season, I'm sure glad MLB changed Draft Pick compensation rule so that if Sox do take a free agent(s) with a QO, they at least won't have to give up a #1 pick in 2019.

[Blackout Friday]

The primary downside to being so awful thus far, in my opinion, is who the hell would sign here?

[southsider2k5]

28 minutes ago, oldsox said:

Regarding Free Agency next off season, I'm sure glad MLB changed Draft Pick compensation rule so that if Sox do take a free agent(s) with a QO, they at least won't have to give up a #1 pick in 2019.

They were always top 10 protected. 

[Baron]

I dont expect them to sign anyone of significance next offseason. 

[ron883]

Machado or bust

[WBWSF]

6 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

1)  The city of Chicago itself...one of the 3-5 most attractive destinations for any Free Agent.  This will come into play this coming offseason, and was already arguably an element of the decision for Luis Robert to choose the Sox over the Cards.

2)  More available payroll space after 2018 and 2019 than any team in MLB

3)  The AL Central is in a "down" cycle with Cleveland already having peaked.  Five of the bottom 12 MLB teams in attendance, which is especially important for Cleveland and Minnesota.   Ilitch Sr. is no longer overspending in DET.   Royals and Tigers both on downcycles with poor farm system and lots of bad veteran contracts.  Twins will lose Mauer, Dozier, Santana, etc.   Sano and Buxton not interested in signing long-term extensions, same with Berrios (so far).

4)  Storied connection to Latin American players (and Cubans in particular)...one of the few Hispanic managers in the game, with Omar Vizquel trailing in his footsteps.    Potential stars in Rodon, Moncada, Jimenez, Luis Robert, R. Lopez, Adolfo, Basabe, etc.    Abreu and Alexei Ramirez have set the tone in the last decade, following in the footsteps of Minnie Minoso, Jose Contreras, El Duque, Luis Aparicio, Chico Carrasquel, etc.

5)  Don Cooper's success with pitching and Herm Schneider's with keeping players off the DL (Burger injury notwithstanding)...they will be challenged to earn their money the next 3-5 years.   Dave Duncan also in place as a valued consultant, Thome on the offensive side.

6)  Interest in the Cubs is peaking (might have already peaked)...following that team is becoming increasingly expensive for even upper middle class families.  Team looks like it will be tripped up with payroll issues in the future due to Heyward and Darvish.  By the time the White Sox fully arrive in 2020, their remaining competitive window will be in its 2 final years, in all likelihood.

7)  Top 3 Farm System...and looking to add even more talent in 2018 and probably another 8-12 pick in 2019.  I'm not going to bother to cover it all because it's done on a nightly basis, but the system is generally on an upward trend, other than the concerns about Burger (acute), Robert and Hansen.

?   For some reason, an 8 is unavailable, lol...but it's the fact that the White Sox have been the only team who had three marquee talents (Sale, Q and Eaton) to jump start the rebuild, and the timing for those moves worked out nearly perfectly (Moncada struggling in 20 at-bats with Boston, compared to Benintendi and Devers), and then the Cubs' desperation to part with Jimenez and Cease in order to get an established anchor for the middle of their rotation.

9)  TV contract negotiations coming just in time to allow the White Sox to add another $25-35 million to payroll comfortably without breaking a sweat.

10)  Biggest free agent class coming up in the 2018-19 off-season, which is the White Sox are well-positioned to be in the market for any player on the board, even Harper and Machado (should they desire to dip their toes in the deep end of the pool again).

 

I'll add one more....we still probably will need to go outside the organization for an elite closer or set-up guy (Kimbrel/Miller, etc.), but we have an abundance of young pitching talent, and some of the leftovers will naturally fit into our bullpen, supplemented with 2-3 veteran signings. 

 

 

I admire your optimism about the future of the White Sox. I hope you're right.

[caulfield12]

53 minutes ago, Blackout Friday said:

The primary downside to being so awful thus far, in my opinion, is who the hell would sign here?

Whoever buys into the vision the front office is selling...it might take a 5-10% premium for now.

That said, the untapped potential is clearly there.  It’s likely going to require 2-3 leaders from other teams to get us over the top.  But to answer the question, why did Hosmer sign with the Padres?  They’re the exact same reasons for signing here, other than geographic location. 

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, WBWSF said:

I admire your optimism about the future of the White Sox. I hope you're right.

There’s no choice but cautious optimism, really

One way or the other, this franchise is going into uncharted waters.   Hahn and KW will sink or swim.   No middle ground.

[LittleHurt05]

Or they can just offer the most money. 60% of the time, it works every time.

[Dick Allen]

47 minutes ago, Hot FiRe said:

Machado or bust

It's possible, but far from probable. If you're Machado and the White Sox and Yankees or Dodgers offer similar money, where are you going? JR is going to have to ARod or Cano it. 

Edited May 10, 2018 by Dick Allen

[BamaDoc]

44 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

There’s no choice but cautious optimism, really

One way or the other, this franchise is going into uncharted waters.   Hahn and KW will sink or swim.   No middle ground.

I am cautiously optimistic, but there is every outcome possible.  The rebuild may not bring a champion but we could be anywhere from bad to good.

[Dick Allen]

1 minute ago, BamaDoc said:

I am cautiously optimistic, but there is every outcome possible.  The rebuild may not bring a champion but we could be anywhere from bad to good.

Eventually, they will get to the point where they have to add veterans through trade or free agency to put them over the top. That's where I have issue. If you don't think RH or JR or KW or all three had a clue how to supplement their roster to win before, I don't know why you would think they would now. 

They were at point C or D trying to get to E. Now they are at point A. To me, all it does is buys them time, eventually they will have to get to point C or D again, and they have shown in the past that is where they pretty much hit a wall.

[BamaDoc]

Don't disagree with you at all.  The Sox have always had a budget.  In the past that led to us trying to compete by bargain shopping and trading young talent.  Hopefully, with a younger/cheaper core, there will be more money available to get better players and/or the budget will be bigger.

[LittleHurt05]

6 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Eventually, they will get to the point where they have to add veterans through trade or free agency to put them over the top. That's where I have issue. If you don't think RH or JR or KW or all three had a clue how to supplement their roster to win before, I don't know why you would think they would now. 

They were at point C or D trying to get to E. Now they are at point A. To me, all it does is buys them time, eventually they will have to get to point C or D again, and they have shown in the past that is where they pretty much hit a wall.

I'm not certain they have a clue now either, but this is a dictatorship, not a democracy so we don't have much of a choice.  Unless we stop rooting the Sox until JR/KW are gone.  But now who would go and do something crazy like that?  Become a Cubs fan?  Nonsense.

[Dam8610]

10 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Eventually, they will get to the point where they have to add veterans through trade or free agency to put them over the top. That's where I have issue. If you don't think RH or JR or KW or all three had a clue how to supplement their roster to win before, I don't know why you would think they would now. 

They were at point C or D trying to get to E. Now they are at point A. To me, all it does is buys them time, eventually they will have to get to point C or D again, and they have shown in the past that is where they pretty much hit a wall.

The problem, using your analogy, is that in the mid 2010s, the White Sox were at point B, and used the resources required to get to point C hoping that luck and top end talent would carry them to point E. Now, ideally, internal talent will carry them to point D, and they'll only need to spend the resources required to get to point E, which they'll have at that point. The difference is their strategy was faulty before. Now it's not.

[TheTruth05]

20 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

The problem, using your analogy, is that in the mid 2010s, the White Sox were at point B, and used the resources required to get to point C hoping that luck and top end talent would carry them to point E. Now, ideally, internal talent will carry them to point D, and they'll only need to spend the resources required to get to point E, which they'll have at that point. The difference is their strategy was faulty before. Now it's not.

This is basically it, not that i give Hahn and Co. complete confidence but with a bigger checkbook and hopefully less holes needed to fill they can go out and get a gamechanger.

[Dick Allen]

3 hours ago, TheTruth05 said:

This is basically it, not that i give Hahn and Co. complete confidence but with a bigger checkbook and hopefully less holes needed to fill they can go out and get a gamechanger.

It's easy to sign free agents if you are willing to pay them more than anyone else. KW , RH seem to think they have some sort of power of persuasion when it comes to signing players. Remember just a few months ago how upset KW was at not getting a shot at Otani for $300k, and how the White Sox supposedly made an offer for Machado because they thought spending a year with the team gave them some sort of advantage money couldn't wipe right out. 

 

They have without question, done some things recently they haven't done either ever or for a very long time. But like the Bulls, I believe they will sign the elite free agents when it happens. There is no reason to think they are coming to 35th and the Ryan. 

[Blackout Friday]

4 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Whoever buys into the vision the front office is selling...it might take a 5-10% premium for now.

That said, the untapped potential is clearly there.  It’s likely going to require 2-3 leaders from other teams to get us over the top.  But to answer the question, why did Hosmer sign with the Padres?  They’re the exact same reasons for signing here, other than geographic location. 

Yeah, maybe I’m not giving players enough credit. A lot of the time though they just give perameters and the agent finds the team.

But I know players too. That was my job. They’re often stupid competitive. They want to be the most, be the best, or make the most. It drives them. 

Free agency is already a fragile system for a team like ours. Not much room for error. I just hope they get it right. 

[southsider2k5]

I think one of the inefficiencies the White Sox are looking to exploit right now are college and minor league relievers.  It is early now, but we will see how it turns out.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

44 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

It's easy to sign free agents if you are willing to pay them more than anyone else. KW , RH seem to think they have some sort of power of persuasion when it comes to signing players. Remember just a few months ago how upset KW was at not getting a shot at Otani for $300k, and how the White Sox supposedly made an offer for Machado because they thought spending a year with the team gave them some sort of advantage money couldn't wipe right out. 

 

They have without question, done some things recently they haven't done either ever or for a very long time. But like the Bulls, I believe they will sign the elite free agents when it happens. There is no reason to think they are coming to 35th and the Ryan. 

 

41 minutes ago, Blackout Friday said:

Yeah, maybe I’m not giving players enough credit. A lot of the time though they just give perameters and the agent finds the team.

But I know players too. That was my job. They’re often stupid competitive. They want to be the most, be the best, or make the most. It drives them. 

Free agency is already a fragile system for a team like ours. Not much room for error. I just hope they get it right. 

These 2 posts pretty much say everything when it comes to signing big name free agents. Most want 2 things to win a World Series and money. Someone like Hosmer already won his. Being terribly bad going into this crucial period isn't exactly ideal, nor is having a long tradition of losing, sparse crowds and no history of spending big money and egomaniacs running the front office with their own history of losing, bad history of drafting and developing talent who are way too comfortable in their jobs.

[Lip Man 1]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

 

These 2 posts pretty much say everything when it comes to signing big name free agents. Most want 2 things to win a World Series and money. Someone like Hosmer already won his. Being terribly bad going into this crucial period isn't exactly ideal, nor is having a long tradition of losing, sparse crowds and no history of spending big money and egomaniacs running the front office with their own history of losing, bad history of drafting and developing talent who are way too comfortable in their jobs.

Well said in my opinion. You hope it works out in the end but this front office really hasn't earned much benefit of the doubt. This off season will be very interesting to be sure. Was told basically as long as the Sox offer the most money to the top guys they'll sign here. We'll see...as you said there's more to it than that. If there is only a few million dollars a year difference between offers other factors can come into play. Personally I'd be very surprised if the Sox got any of the elite guys on the market next year. I think they can, and will, get some useful pieces particularly in the bullpen which will help but guys like Harper, Machado, Kershaw (if he opt out) won't be coming here unless the Sox offer some ridiculous amount of money which they have rarely, rarely done (Albert Belle comes to mind) 

Edited May 10, 2018 by Lip Man 1

[caulfield12]

In an ideal world, they'd bring in one more outside high level expert/consultant (maybe even from another industry like football or basketball), but I doubt we get that.

I would LOVE to think there were a number of people in the front office (Haber, the analytics guys, etc.) pushing back against trading for James Shields in 2016, signing Derek Holland or even drafting Burger, but we'll never know.

That kind of healthy back and forth is productive for an organization...and I'm not 100% we have that with the current KW/Hahn dynamic.

[Replacement Level Poster]

7 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

It's easy to sign free agents if you are willing to pay them more than anyone else. KW , RH seem to think they have some sort of power of persuasion when it comes to signing players. Remember just a few months ago how upset KW was at not getting a shot at Otani for $300k, and how the White Sox supposedly made an offer for Machado because they thought spending a year with the team gave them some sort of advantage money couldn't wipe right out. 

 

They have without question, done some things recently they haven't done either ever or for a very long time. But like the Bulls, I believe they will sign the elite free agents when it happens. There is no reason to think they are coming to 35th and the Ryan. 

Yes I haven’t seen this since the Albert Belle signing, and even that was a single outlier, white flag trade about 8 months later, versus what is likely needed now one of the premier guys on the open market plus maybe two more significant market pieces. 

[caulfield12]

This is our only evidence so far:

1) Bidding for Tanaka (ace in prime control years)

2) Abreu

3) Luis Robert

4) Paid top dollar for Dunn (for DH's) and Robertson (for closers)

 

Of course, we've never gone much beyond the $65-70 million range for a single contract.  Danks, Abreu, Konerko, Buehrle and Ordonez were the biggest deals (if I'm recalling correctly) in terms of total value.

 

https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/mlb/diamondbacks/2018/05/02/aj-pollock-arizona-diamondbacks-free-agency/575785002/

How much could Pollock be looking at? Coming off last year’s strange free-agent market, that’s a hard question to forecast – but two recent deals for center fielders could provide a framework.

First, there’s the five-year, $80 million deal the Brewers gave Lorenzo Cain, a player who is two years older than Pollock but has tended to generate relatively similar production. More recently, the Rockies gave Charlie Blackmon a six-year, $108 million extension.

Perhaps the biggest hurdle for Pollock to clear as a free agent is his reputation for being injury prone. Staying healthy over the final five months could go a long way toward convincing clubs his past injury issues were more an aberration than the norm.

As for the power he’s displayed, it would seem to bode well for reasons perhaps beyond the obvious.

This is Pollock’s age-30 season, meaning that whichever team signs him will be paying market rates at a time in his career when he figures to be entering a decline phase. This is especially pertinent given that, because of his position (center field) and offensive profile, his speed is a significant part of his game.

But if his power surge is real, teams might feel more comfortable with a long-term deal knowing he has the bat to profile on an outfield corner.

“From an offensive standpoint, he could hit one or two in your lineup or he could slide back and hit fourth or fifth,” a scout with an American League team said. “There’s the ability for him to move throughout your lineup; there’s an element of run scoring and run production to his game.

“From a defensive standpoint, he can still play center field, and if he slows down a tick or two, I think there’s enough offensive production that you could move him to left field. If he’s a guy who could hit 20 (homers), get on base, score runs and play really good defense, that’s a good player.”

Some scouts seem more likely to buy the power jump because they believe in the improvements they’ve seen from Pollock at the plate. They think he might still be growing into himself as a hitter.

“He’s a different player than he was a few years ago,” another scout from an AL club said. “He’s continued to make adjustments. He’s still kind of an underrated guy, but he shouldn’t be.”

Once free agency gets underway, Pollock still will likely take a backseat to Bryce Harper, Manny Machado and Clayton Kershaw, should the latter opt out of his contract. But he could work his way to the top of the next tier.

“If he remains healthy and continues to produce the way he has,” the second AL scout said, “there’s no reason to think why he couldn’t.”

This will be great for the Diamondbacks’ season, but bad for their future. Unless they surprise everyone once again.

Edited May 11, 2018 by caulfield12