It's time to talk about the Sox young pitching

[Chicago White Sox]

39 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I've been saying all along that failure rates and injuries will take their toll on the young pitching to those who think the whole staff will come from the prospects and I am as positive as you can be about giving pitchers the time necessary to develop.

So yea right now things look bleak but really what did you expect ? It's YOUNG pitching. DUH. Use some common sense people . Expecting great things from prospects is  wonderful  but no one should be shocked when they don't live up to expectations especially until they reach about 25 years old. These things have been a constant in baseball for a long time. Expecting the Sox to keep escaping injuries and development time and having all prospects on the staff is just not and never will be realistic.

What exactly looks bleak?  Other than Giolito’s horrific start & the uncertainty over Hansen’s injury (and it sounds like he will be fine), everything is going well with our pitching prospects.  I honestly think people are overreacting to a couple bad starts by Kopech.

[Balta1701]

11 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Everyone's forgetting about Rodon...he's under team control through 2021.  If he can regain his form, that takes a LOT of the pressure off the rest of youngsters, they can all fall in line behind him, instead of coming up to the big leagues and feeling the pressure right off the bat to "be the man."

Carlos Rodon has not been "The man" since he was drafted either.

[Eminor3rd]

I'm still high on Lopez. The stuff is unbelievable, and I think his command of it will improve. 

[Balta1701]

6 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

I'm still high on Lopez. The stuff is unbelievable, and I think his command of it will improve. 

I'm still high on several of these guys as struggling for a year is exactly what we should have expected from them. That includes guys walking the world, giving up tons of HR after falling behind in the count, etc.

The one thing that is worrying me is the low number of strikeouts because eventually you do have to be able to put guys away.

[southsider2k5]

12 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

I also think one of the McClure/Puckett/Stephens types will end up being a solid 3/4 starter. It's not always the top guys who end up making it, after all. Gotta factor the wild cards in 

There is just so much volume of potential starting pitching in this system right how.  After the top level guys, it is really hard to get a read on not only who could break out, but if there will be a spot for them.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What exactly looks bleak?  Other than Giolito’s horrific start & the uncertainty over Hansen’s injury (and it sounds like he will be fine), everything is going well with our pitching prospects.  I honestly think people are overreacting to a couple bad starts by Kopech.

I did say RIGHT NOW things look bleak so I could answer Giolito's problems, No Rodon or Hansen , Burdi's injury. Fulmer's struggles, Fry the only young reliever on the team and yes right now Kopech's last 2 starts . Some of these things will improve quickly or in weeks. Kopech had a bad month last year in June then after that was lights out.

[Chicago White Sox]

16 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I did say RIGHT NOW things look bleak so I could answer Giolito's problems, No Rodon or Hansen , Burdi's injury. Fulmer's struggles, Fry the only young reliever on the team and yes right now Kopech's last 2 starts . Some of these things will improve quickly or in weeks. Kopech had a bad month last year in June then after that was lights out.

Gotcha, I guess for me the only thing that has radically changed for the worse is Giolito.  I’m not writing him off yet, but do have huge concerns about him.  I 100% understand being a little worried about Rodon, Hansen, & Burdi until they come back, but those aren’t long-term concerns for me until I know if for some reason they’ll never be the same.  I never expected much from Fulmer, so that isn’t a big deal for me.  I get where you are coming from, just don’t see the doom & gloom Jack sees.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

I'm still high on Lopez. The stuff is unbelievable, and I think his command of it will improve. 

100% on this.

[chitownsportsfan]

Lopez and Giolito, and Giolito with a bullet, have been the worst starters in baseball this year.   Giolito doesn't even look like a pro player imo.  Lopez at least has the velocity and stuff but so far his command on his changeup has been absolutely awful, and so has his control in general.

Lopez's problems can be fixed with repetition and refinement.  I have no idea how you "fix" Giolito.

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Gotcha, I guess for me the only thing that has radically changed for the worse is Giolito.  I’m not writing him off yet, but do have huge concerns about him.  I 100% understand being a little worried about Rodon, Hansen, & Burdi until they come back, but those aren’t long-term concerns for me until I know if for some reason they’ll never be the same.  I never expected much from Fulmer, so that isn’t a big deal for me.  I get where you are coming from, just don’t see the doom & gloom Jack sees.

TBH, surving the Jon Garland and Gavin Floyd up and down's make me less worried about Lucas.  But with them all having similar backgrounds (High HS picks who lost stuff in their journey to the majors, had some pretty big ups and downs, struggled to get consistency from start to start early on in their careers, big tall RHPs with long arms and legs, called to the majors at a young age, etc) it gives me a viewpoint that there could be something to guys needing a bit longer to get comfortable at the major league level.  I remember all of these same conversations happening for years for both Floyd and Garland.

[TaylorStSox]

Drops in velocity don't concern me as much as some of you guys. We're very much a pitch to contact/2 seamer/cutter organization. It's certainly not as sexy as a strikeout and the sabr guys seem to be obsessed with k's, but again, I'm not overly concerned yet. 

[TaylorStSox]

And Garland was absolutely filthy. He just didn't seem to have the drive to want to be great. 

[turnin' two]

34 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Lopez and Giolito, and Giolito with a bullet, have been the worst starters in baseball this year.   Giolito doesn't even look like a pro player imo.  Lopez at least has the velocity and stuff but so far his command on his changeup has been absolutely awful, and so has his control in general.

Lopez's problems can be fixed with repetition and refinement.  I have no idea how you "fix" Giolito.

Am I misreading this or are you saying this guy:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=lopezre01&year=2018&t=p

 

has been one of the worst starters in baseball this year?

 

He has a .640 OPS against.  Opponents are hitting less than .200 against him.  He has a WHIP of 1.12. Maybe he walks too many and strikes out too few but he is young and should continue to improve.  Saying he has been one of the worst SP in baseball really makes no sense and I sure don't see a logical argument to support it.  

[Jack Parkman]

5 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Am I misreading this or are you saying this guy:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=lopezre01&year=2018&t=p

 

has been one of the worst starters in baseball this year?

 

He has a .640 OPS against.  Opponents are hitting less than .200 against him.  He has a WHIP of 1.12. Maybe he walks too many and strikes out too few but he is young and should continue to improve.  Saying he has been one of the worst SP in baseball really makes no sense and I sure don't see a logical argument to support it.  

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16400&position=P

Look at his FIP and xFIP. He's been bad, just extremely lucky. 4.93 FIP and 5.54 xFIP. Shields has been the best starter on the staff and it isn't close, which is very scary. 

[chitownsportsfan]

11 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Am I misreading this or are you saying this guy:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=lopezre01&year=2018&t=p

 

has been one of the worst starters in baseball this year?

 

He has a .640 OPS against.  Opponents are hitting less than .200 against him.  He has a WHIP of 1.12. Maybe he walks too many and strikes out too few but he is young and should continue to improve.  Saying he has been one of the worst SP in baseball really makes no sense and I sure don't see a logical argument to support it.  

bWAR sucks for pitchers because it doesn't use FIP.  Lopez has been incredibly lucky.  He has .4fWAR and the 2nd worst xFIP in baseball behind (you guess it) Giolito.

I'm a big Reylo supporter.  He's got great stuff.  But he's been all over the place this year and especially his changeup has just been awful.  There is some really great clay to work with their though, unlike what I've seen from Gio, who honestly looks like a Juco pitcher.

Edited May 14, 2018 by chitownsportsfan

[turnin' two]

36 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16400&position=P

Look at his FIP and xFIP. He's been bad, just extremely lucky. 4.93 FIP and 5.54 xFIP. Shields has been the best starter on the staff and it isn't close, which is very scary. 

FIP and xFIP are basically the same stat as K/IP and BB/9.  Those stats rely much too heavily on K numbers.  They also rely heavily on BB numbers.  Both things that I mentioned Lopez needs to work on, which also would indicate his FIP numbers would have been high.  These can be useful, but using them as the primary evaluation tool for a guy seems heavily flawed to me.  He has other stats that balance out those numbers.  Such as OPS against, BAA, SLG against (.354).  Will his ERA number rise a bit?  Maybe, probably.  The differential of 2 runs or so seems a bit extreme.  But maybe this also indicates that his K/9 numbers are likely to rise a bit.  

 

And your last sentence should prove just how flawed it is to use FIP and xFIP as your only evaluation measures.  If you have watched the games at all, this is clearly not a true statement.

Edited May 14, 2018 by turnin' two

[turnin' two]

36 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

bWAR sucks for pitchers because it doesn't use FIP.  Lopez has been incredibly lucky.  He has .4fWAR and the 2nd worst xFIP in baseball behind (you guess it) Giolito.

I'm a big Reylo supporter.  He's got great stuff.  But he's been all over the place this year and especially his changeup has just been awful.  There is some really great clay to work with their though, unlike what I've seen from Gio, who honestly looks like a Juco pitcher.

Wasn't even looking at his WAR.  

[chitownsportsfan]

5 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Wasn't even looking at his WAR.  

Voros.

[Jack Parkman]

11 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

FIP and xFIP are basically the same stat as K/IP and BB/9.  Those stats rely much too heavily on K numbers.  They also rely heavily on BB numbers.  Both things that I mentioned Lopez needs to work on, which also would indicate his FIP numbers would have been high.  These can be useful, but using them as the primary evaluation tool for a guy seems heavily flawed to me.  He has other stats that balance out those numbers.  Such as OPS against, BAA, SLG against (.354).  Will his ERA number rise a bit?  Maybe, probably.  The differential of 2 runs or so seems a bit extreme.  But maybe this also indicates that his K/9 numbers are likely to rise a bit.  

 

And your last sentence should prove just how flawed it is to use FIP and xFIP as your only evaluation measures.  If you have watched the games at all, this is clearly not a true statement.

I have been watching the games and Shields has been probably the best guy on the staff objectively. Still scary. If Shields could fix his 1st inning bugaboo, he'd probably have decent stats too. 

Edited May 14, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[turnin' two]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

I have been watching the games and Shields has been probably the best guy on the staff objectively. Still scary. 

Fair enough.  I completely disagree, but fair enough.

[turnin' two]

1 minute ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Voros.

I have no idea what this means. 

[soxfan49]

1 hour ago, TaylorStSox said:

And Garland was absolutely filthy. He just didn't seem to have the drive to want to be great. 

He had that California Cool attitude. My dad used to hate his attitude when he was bad but would love him otherwise. Not sure I'd ever question a pro athlete's drive unless it was admitted by the player.

[turnin' two]

11 minutes ago, Tony said:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/mccracken/parkfact.html

Ok thank you, don't see how it really applies to what you (Chitown, not Tony) are saying about Lopez.  Are you (again, Chitown not Tony) that Lopez has in some way benefited from having his home park at Guaranteed Rate?  It isn't like it is AT&T or Safeco.  If anything it seems to be pretty much in the middle of the distribution curve (and that is with a few years of a horrible offensive ballclub playing there). 

Edited May 14, 2018 by turnin' two

[Eminor3rd]

11 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Ok thank you, don't see how it really applies to what you (Chitown, not Tony) are saying about Lopez.  Are you (again, Chitown not Tony) that Lopez has in some way benefited from having his home park at Guaranteed Rate?  It isn't like it is AT&T or Safeco.  If anything it seems to be pretty much in the middle of the distribution curve (and that is with a few years of a horrible offensive ballclub playing there). 

The shade being tossed at Lopez is because his 2.44 ERA is against a 4.54 FIP and a 5.28 xFIP.

What this means, essentially, is that (1) his K/BB ratio suggests he does not deserve an ERA that low, and (2) he has given up far fewer homeruns than would be expected given his ballpark and the current offensive environment of the league. This makes him, on paper, a prime candidate for regression, because if he keeps performing the same as he has been, you'd expect him to give up more homers and for more of his balls in play to become hits going forward.

He needs to strike more dudes out (and walk a few less) to avoid this.

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

The shade being tossed at Lopez is because his 2.44 ERA is against a 4.54 FIP and a 5.28 xFIP.

What this means, essentially, is that (1) his K/BB ratio suggests he does not deserve an ERA that low, and (2) he has given up far fewer homeruns than would be expected given his ballpark and the current offensive environment of the league. This makes him, on paper, a prime candidate for regression, because if he keeps performing the same as he has been, you'd expect him to give up more homers and for more of his balls in play to become hits going forward.

He needs to strike more dudes out (and walk a few less) to avoid this.

*claps hands* Exactly. FIP and xFIP are predictive, as in they tell you what is likely to happen in the future. ERA and ERA+ (or ERA- if you want to use that) tell you what happened  so far, and are not predictive stats.