It's time to talk about the Sox young pitching

[wrathofhahn]

Honestly I thought we made a mistake in the offseason not bringing in some buy low veteran guys. They'd either have trade value at the deadline or at least protect us against burning through our young guys service time.

We've been lucky when it comes to injuries to SP. Really lucky...

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

Honestly I thought we made a mistake in the offseason not bringing in some buy low veteran guys. They'd either have trade value at the deadline or at least protect us against burning through our young guys service time.

We've been lucky when it comes to injuries to SP. Really lucky...

With two of our starting 5 on the DL, I can't really agree with us having been lucky lately.

[Dam8610]

2 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

Honestly I thought we made a mistake in the offseason not bringing in some buy low veteran guys. They'd either have trade value at the deadline or at least protect us against burning through our young guys service time.

We've been lucky when it comes to injuries to SP. Really lucky...

There's Santiago, Volstad, and a couple other AAAA fillers who could spot start if need be to avoid wasting a key player's service time.

[bmags]

I kept bringing up trading for Jason Hammel lol what a terrible idea.

[Dam8610]

17 minutes ago, bmags said:

I kept bringing up trading for Jason Hammel lol what a terrible idea.

Giving up a prospect for a ML player is the last thing this team needs to do right now.

[bmags]

Just now, Dam8610 said:

Giving up a prospect for a ML player is the last thing this team needs to do right now.

Give me a break. He'd have cost less than nothing. We'd have been taking on 11 million for a 35 year old pitcher that had a bad year last year from a rebuilding team.

[Dam8610]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

Give me a break. He'd have cost less than nothing. We'd have been taking on 11 million for a 35 year old pitcher that had a bad year last year from a rebuilding team.

If they can get him for the contract, sure, it can't hurt anything.

[bmags]

Just now, Dam8610 said:

If they can get him for the contract, sure, it can't hurt anything.

LOL, sorry, I was disagreeing with your premise but it actually would hurt. Hammel is terrible, somehow would still be noticeably bad on our noticeably bad rotation. We are on the 2016 white sox diet of recycling older name free agents hoping that they give us average production when they are somehow worse than our AAA fodder.

[wrathofhahn]

36 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

With two of our starting 5 on the DL, I can't really agree with us having been lucky lately.

Rondon was a known injury at the start of the season. We've only really had one guy Miguel. To me thats lucky.

 

 

[caulfield12]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2017-world-baseball-classic-top-10-prospects/

Time to start signing some Japanese/Korean players...throw EVERYTHING at the wall and hope some of it sticks.

[Eminor3rd]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2017-world-baseball-classic-top-10-prospects/

Time to start signing some Japanese/Korean players...throw EVERYTHING at the wall and hope some of it sticks.

Fujinami is a bust. Hard thrower, but no semblance of control at all, potential make-up issues, and already a ton of miles on the arm.

Despaigne is like if Yasmany Tomas was 50 pounds heavier and was 30 already.

Yamada is a monster but has a potentially chronic back issue, and he plays the one position we don't need (second base). His swing is incredibly powerful but also very long -- it's tough to know if it would translate to the majors. He's super fast, too, though. Very high-end talent but some real question marks.

Tsutsugoh has been a monster slugger in the past and is still only like 26, but he's having a down year and is a below average corner OF.

Seiya Suzuki is awesome but he ain't goin anywhere.

If you want to start following a guy that we may have a legit chance of getting as soon as this offseason, look into Yusei Kikuchi, the Seibu Lions ace. High-three quarters delivery, sits like 91-93, can touch 95, has a plus splitter and flashes a plus slider. Solid command. Has been a famous prospect for a while but was disappointing until he finally broke out in a big way last year at age 25, almost winning the Sawamura Award (their Cy Young). The Lions have always said they they'd post him if he ever put together two good seasons in a row, and he's started strong this year, so everyone expects him to be made available. Tough to know how a guy like this will translate -- he doesn't have the elite velocity that's becoming common in the MLB, but we've seen guys with good splitters dominate for a while over here. Might have platoon issues with his delivery. He's probably a mid-rotation guy but he's young enough to be around for a long time.

Edited May 16, 2018 by Eminor3rd

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Eminor3rd said:

Fujinami is a bust. Hard thrower, but no semblance of control at all, potential make-up issues, and already a ton of miles on the arm.

Despaigne is like if Yasmany Tomas was 50 pounds heavier and was 30 already.

Yamada is a monster but has a potentially chronic back issue, and he plays the one position we don't need (second base). His swing is incredibly powerful but also very long -- it's tough to know if it would translate to the majors. He's super fast, too, though. Very high-end talent but some real question marks.

Tsutsugoh has been a monster slugger in the past and is still only like 26, but he's having a down year and is a below average corner OF.

Seiya Suzuki is awesome but he ain't goin anywhere.

If you want to start following a guy that we may have a legit chance of getting as soon as this offseason, look into Yusei Kikuchi, the Seibu Lions ace. High-three quarters delivery, sits like 91-93, can touch 95, has a plus splitter and flashes a plus slider. Solid command. Has been a famous prospect for a while but was disappointing until he finally broke out in a big way last year at age 25, almost winning the Sawamura Award (their Cy Young). The Lions have always said they they'd post him if he ever put together two good seasons in a row, and he's started strong this year, so everyone expects him to be made available. Tough to know how a guy like this will translate -- he doesn't have the elite velocity that's becoming common in the MLB, but we've seen guys with good splitters dominate for a while over here. Might have platoon issues with his delivery. He's probably a mid-rotation guy but he's young enough to be around for a long time.

Good recap...you're obviously following the international scene more closely than nearly everyone here.

Looking to Asia just makes (extra) sense if we're locked out of signing Latin American players until next summer.   Supposedly, Seibu doesn't really draw well and could really use the expected $15-20 million posting fee to subsidize their franchise into the future.

 

https://friarsonbase.com/2018/03/13/san-diego-padres-yusei-kikuchi/

Why the San Diego Padres should NOT go after Kikuchi...

 

According to those who closely follow the NPB, Kikuchi was expected to become the first Japanese player to forego the NPB draft and sign with a Major League Baseball team. He ultimately decided to hone his craft in Japan.

I’m not going to deny that he is a fantastic pitcher. Kikuchi features a four-pitch mix (fastball, slider, change, and curveball). He holds the NPB record for fastest pitch by a left-hander, just over 98 mph. His slider is the strikeout pitch that has commanded the most attention.

Injuries have routinely held him back from reaching his full potential since his NPB debut in 2011. He missed his entire rookie season with a shoulder injury. The shoulder issues returned in 2013, causing him to miss two months.

Injuries aside, in 2017 Kikuchi showed the world what he’s capable of. He allowed a career-low 5.9 hits/9 innings, and cut the number of walks allowed in half compared to 2016.

Current Fangraphs contributor Sung Min Kim said last year that the Seibu Lions will post Kikuchi after the 2018 season, should he record double-digit wins in ’17 and ’18.

If Kikuchi is posted after this season, he will be 27 and in the prime of his career. The international bonus pool system rules won’t apply, meaning an unlimited bidding war is sure to break out. If he posts a similar, or even better, season than he did last year in Japan, the winner may find themselves paying well-above the $100 million mark.

A large portion of Padres’ fans have been adamant about “sticking to the plan” since the signing of Eric Hosmer. Don’t be tricked into thinking that the Friars are instant World Series contenders in 2019 with Hosmer and one big starting pitcher. Dedicating more than $100 million to Kikuchi, plus $15-20 million posting fee to the Seibu Lions (depends on final contract amount) just isn’t worth it.

San Diego has numerous pitching prospects that the organization believes will be major league contributors. Let’s give these guys a shot and hope they live up to the hype.

 

Giving a unknown pitcher $100+ million (plus posting fee) doesn't seem to fit into the White Sox playbook, but they almost did it with Tanaka...and this guy would be 27 and fills a need as a LH starter. (The usual caveat is that he would have to pass all the medicals to even be considered for the first $100+ million deal in franchise history.)

That's why Rick Hahn makes the big bucks, right?

Personally, I would rather give out $300-350 million to AJ Pollock, Kikuchi, Kimbrel/Miller and Moustakas than putting it ALL into the Harper or Machado basket.

That kind of move would make or break the franchise for a decade...so Hahn's going to take the measured approach IMO and spread the money around.   In that sense, it's like buying a mutual fund vs. "going for it" with one particular high growth stock.

 

 

Edited May 16, 2018 by caulfield12

[Eminor3rd]

8 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Good recap...you're obviously following the international scene more closely than nearly everyone here.

Looking to Asia just makes (extra) sense if we're locked out of signing Latin American players until next summer.   Supposedly, Seibu doesn't really draw well and could really use the expected $15-20 million posting fee to subsidize their franchise into the future.

 

https://friarsonbase.com/2018/03/13/san-diego-padres-yusei-kikuchi/

Why the San Diego Padres should NOT go after Kikuchi...

 

According to those who closely follow the NPB, Kikuchi was expected to become the first Japanese player to forego the NPB draft and sign with a Major League Baseball team. He ultimately decided to hone his craft in Japan.

I’m not going to deny that he is a fantastic pitcher. Kikuchi features a four-pitch mix (fastball, slider, change, and curveball). He holds the NPB record for fastest pitch by a left-hander, just over 98 mph. His slider is the strikeout pitch that has commanded the most attention.

Injuries have routinely held him back from reaching his full potential since his NPB debut in 2011. He missed his entire rookie season with a shoulder injury. The shoulder issues returned in 2013, causing him to miss two months.

Injuries aside, in 2017 Kikuchi showed the world what he’s capable of. He allowed a career-low 5.9 hits/9 innings, and cut the number of walks allowed in half compared to 2016.

Current Fangraphs contributor Sung Min Kim said last year that the Seibu Lions will post Kikuchi after the 2018 season, should he record double-digit wins in ’17 and ’18.

If Kikuchi is posted after this season, he will be 27 and in the prime of his career. The international bonus pool system rules won’t apply, meaning an unlimited bidding war is sure to break out. If he posts a similar, or even better, season than he did last year in Japan, the winner may find themselves paying well-above the $100 million mark.

A large portion of Padres’ fans have been adamant about “sticking to the plan” since the signing of Eric Hosmer. Don’t be tricked into thinking that the Friars are instant World Series contenders in 2019 with Hosmer and one big starting pitcher. Dedicating more than $100 million to Kikuchi, plus $15-20 million posting fee to the Seibu Lions (depends on final contract amount) just isn’t worth it.

San Diego has numerous pitching prospects that the organization believes will be major league contributors. Let’s give these guys a shot and hope they live up to the hype.

 

Giving a unknown pitcher $100+ million (plus posting fee) doesn't seem to fit into the White Sox playbook, but they almost did it with Tanaka...and this guy would be 27 and fills a need as a LH starter. (The usual caveat is that he would have to pass all the medicals to even be considered for the first $100+ million deal in franchise history.)

That's why Rick Hahn makes the big bucks, right?

Personally, I would rather give out $300-350 million to AJ Pollock, Kikuchi, Kimbrel/Miller and Moustakas than putting it ALL into the Harper or Machado basket.

That kind of move would make or break the franchise for a decade...so Hahn's going to take the measured approach IMO and spread the money around.   In that sense, it's like buying a mutual fund vs. "going for it" with one particular high growth stock.

 

 

I subscribe to their version of mlb.tv (Pacific League TV), and I've found myself watching as much NPB as White Sox over the last couple seasons... for obvious reasons, lol.

I would love to get Kikuchi, because I'm a fan of the NPB and that would be fun -- but I will tell you this: at the time he was posted, Tanaka was a substantially better pitcher than Kikuchi is now. If Kikuchi creates the same bidding war that Tanaka did, it will be a much riskier buy. It's impossible to guess how they may translate differently, but Tanaka was unbelievable in what turned out to be his walk year. I think he was literally 24-0 with a sub-2 ERA or something.

Now, Tanaka has been a TOR starter over here when healthy, so that still leaves a lot of room for Kikuchi to be good. But just as a point of comparison.

[GreenSox]

Fulmer =  hand-picked by the talent evaluators, #8 draft choice
Lopez = Top 100 prospect
Giolito =  Top 10 prospect for 2 seasons.
None are busts yet; although none are mainstay, they have talent and that often takes a while to develop. I suspect at least 1 will become a rotation mainstay. 1/3 is a reasonable ratio for pitching, which means you need a lot of it.

 

Edited May 16, 2018 by GreenSox

[joejoedairy]

1 hour ago, GreenSox said:

Fulmer =  hand-picked by the talent evaluators, #8 draft choice
Lopez = Top 100 prospect
Giolito =  Top 10 prospect for 2 seasons.
None are busts yet; although none are mainstay, they have talent and that often takes a while to develop. I suspect at least 1 will become a rotation mainstay. 1/3 is a reasonable ratio for pitching, which means you need a lot of it.

 

Yeah, I think we are at a point where we should be happy if we get 1 starter and 1 reliever out of those 3. 

[wrathofhahn]

Giolito is not being looked at objectively right now. His top 10 prospect status was based on his stuff he isn't that pitcher anymore.

He barely throws 91-92 anymore let along lighting up the radar gun to 95-97 as he used too. He probably profiles more of a 4th/5th starter at this point.

[Jack Parkman]

2 hours ago, wrathofhahn said:

Giolito is not being looked at objectively right now. His top 10 prospect status was based on his stuff he isn't that pitcher anymore.

He barely throws 91-92 anymore let along lighting up the radar gun to 95-97 as he used too. He probably profiles more of a 4th/5th starter at this point.

Yeah, I'll be surprised if he sticks in the majors if he doesn't somehow get back to 95-96. Given how he continues to lose velocity rather than gaining any back, I'll be shocked if he sticks in any role. Fulmer doesn't have any semblance of knowing where the ball is going and Lopez is meh. I honestly think out of those 3 we should be happy if Lopez is a lights out reliever because he can't seem to hold his velocity as a starter. I'm expecting zero from Fulmer and Giolito at this point and if they can contribute in any way in the majors consider it a win. 

Edited May 16, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Dam8610]

13 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Good recap...you're obviously following the international scene more closely than nearly everyone here.

Looking to Asia just makes (extra) sense if we're locked out of signing Latin American players until next summer.   Supposedly, Seibu doesn't really draw well and could really use the expected $15-20 million posting fee to subsidize their franchise into the future.

 

https://friarsonbase.com/2018/03/13/san-diego-padres-yusei-kikuchi/

Why the San Diego Padres should NOT go after Kikuchi...

 

According to those who closely follow the NPB, Kikuchi was expected to become the first Japanese player to forego the NPB draft and sign with a Major League Baseball team. He ultimately decided to hone his craft in Japan.

I’m not going to deny that he is a fantastic pitcher. Kikuchi features a four-pitch mix (fastball, slider, change, and curveball). He holds the NPB record for fastest pitch by a left-hander, just over 98 mph. His slider is the strikeout pitch that has commanded the most attention.

Injuries have routinely held him back from reaching his full potential since his NPB debut in 2011. He missed his entire rookie season with a shoulder injury. The shoulder issues returned in 2013, causing him to miss two months.

Injuries aside, in 2017 Kikuchi showed the world what he’s capable of. He allowed a career-low 5.9 hits/9 innings, and cut the number of walks allowed in half compared to 2016.

Current Fangraphs contributor Sung Min Kim said last year that the Seibu Lions will post Kikuchi after the 2018 season, should he record double-digit wins in ’17 and ’18.

If Kikuchi is posted after this season, he will be 27 and in the prime of his career. The international bonus pool system rules won’t apply, meaning an unlimited bidding war is sure to break out. If he posts a similar, or even better, season than he did last year in Japan, the winner may find themselves paying well-above the $100 million mark.

A large portion of Padres’ fans have been adamant about “sticking to the plan” since the signing of Eric Hosmer. Don’t be tricked into thinking that the Friars are instant World Series contenders in 2019 with Hosmer and one big starting pitcher. Dedicating more than $100 million to Kikuchi, plus $15-20 million posting fee to the Seibu Lions (depends on final contract amount) just isn’t worth it.

San Diego has numerous pitching prospects that the organization believes will be major league contributors. Let’s give these guys a shot and hope they live up to the hype.

 

Giving a unknown pitcher $100+ million (plus posting fee) doesn't seem to fit into the White Sox playbook, but they almost did it with Tanaka...and this guy would be 27 and fills a need as a LH starter. (The usual caveat is that he would have to pass all the medicals to even be considered for the first $100+ million deal in franchise history.)

That's why Rick Hahn makes the big bucks, right?

Personally, I would rather give out $300-350 million to AJ Pollock, Kikuchi, Kimbrel/Miller and Moustakas than putting it ALL into the Harper or Machado basket.

That kind of move would make or break the franchise for a decade...so Hahn's going to take the measured approach IMO and spread the money around.   In that sense, it's like buying a mutual fund vs. "going for it" with one particular high growth stock.

 

 

Why couldn't the Sox sign this guy AND Machado? Or him, Machado, and Kimbrel? Seems like splitting the money it'd take to get Harper into two  or three players, which is pretty much the approach you're advocating here. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 5/15/2018 at 11:10 AM, bmags said:

I kept bringing up trading for Jason Hammel lol what a terrible idea.

That's OK I keep bringing up RA Dickey.

[caulfield12]

6 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

Why couldn't the Sox sign this guy AND Machado? Or him, Machado, and Kimbrel? Seems like splitting the money it'd take to get Harper into two  or three players, which is pretty much the approach you're advocating here. 

Yeah, let's see where the Cubs, Yankees and Dodgers are after this season.

They go after Harper or Machado HARD, it's going to be difficult to run up our risk tolerance to where we can outbid them when the Cubs are already generating $250-300 million more (per year) than the Sox just opening the gates.

That said, Heyward/Darvish and trying to keep Bryant/Baez/Contreras all in the fold is going to become prohibitively expensive...they're eventually going to have to make some tough choices (they've been pretty fortunate with being able to obtain closers as well, that string of luck won't continue.)

 

As far as relievers go, I'm not even sure how confident I would be throwing a $50-75 million contract at Andrew Miller with where he is at this point in his career, and how much hard usage he's undergone the last half decade.  It feels like Kimbrel or bust on that front.  Or we go after someone who falls out of favor, which is quite possible with Ken Giles' future in Houston (obviously, that's the lesser choice.)

Edited May 17, 2018 by caulfield12

[ptatc]

On 5/15/2018 at 12:52 PM, Dam8610 said:

Can a 12-6 curve be adapted to, say, an 11-5 curve without losing effectiveness?

Most pitchers do this. Partly because it doesn't change the release point as much. However, this makes the true 12-6 a more rare pitch and it can be more effective. The greater drop instead of the lateral movement is the advantage of the 12-6 version.

[wrathofhahn]

I know the subject is veering off topic but the Yankees would be morons to sign Machado to that kind of deal they have elite prospects up the middle.

What they should do and would make even bigger impact at 1/10 the price is find a 1B and DH. Right now they have  elite position prospects use their cheapness and good production then trade for 1B/DH. 

Right now they have Gardner/Austion/Hicks manning 1B/DH/CF. Only one of those guys needs to play the field CF. Replace the other two. Not that I feel a whole lot of sympathy but if the Yankees play Austin at 1B and Gardner at DH they really are wasting a ton of the surplus value gained at the other positions. Still a great offense but 1B and DH won't cost them a 350 million to fix. Hell it won't cost them even 50 million.

If I were them I'd be all over Abreu.

[Dam8610]

1 hour ago, ptatc said:

Most pitchers do this. Partly because it doesn't change the release point as much. However, this makes the true 12-6 a more rare pitch and it can be more effective. The greater drop instead of the lateral movement is the advantage of the 12-6 version.

Maybe he should try throwing his fastball from the curve release point and his curve from the fastball release point? It would effectively make him a 5 pitch pitcher and dramatically increase his deception. It's worth trying something at this point since he's not been very effective thus far.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, wrathofhahn said:

I know the subject is veering off topic but the Yankees would be morons to sign Machado to that kind of deal they have elite prospects up the middle.

What they should do and would make even bigger impact at 1/10 the price is find a 1B and DH. Right now they have  elite position prospects use their cheapness and good production then trade for 1B/DH. 

Right now they have Gardner/Austion/Hicks manning 1B/DH/CF. Only one of those guys needs to play the field CF. Replace the other two. Not that I feel a whole lot of sympathy but if the Yankees play Austin at 1B and Gardner at DH they really are wasting a ton of the surplus value gained at the other positions. Still a great offense but 1B and DH won't cost them a 350 million to fix. Hell it won't cost them even 50 million.

If I were them I'd be all over Abreu.

They're also waiting on Greg Bird to get healthy and for Gardner's contract to expire (this year)...Ellsbury, too.

[chitownsportsfan]

1 hour ago, Dam8610 said:

Maybe he should try throwing his fastball from the curve release point and his curve from the fastball release point? It would effectively make him a 5 pitch pitcher and dramatically increase his deception. It's worth trying something at this point since he's not been very effective thus far.

He should try not sucking as well.