Jose Abreu

[caulfield12]

Hanley Ramirez will take up one of those spots with a contender for just $565,000.

[wrathofhahn]

10 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Why?  What of his skillset is going to be the issue?  You can look around baseball and see similar styles of hitters who age into their middle to late 30's just fine.

Like who? People who have done regression models have proven for most players regression happens after age 29 and the huge dropoff starts at 32-33.

Most of the guys with same style of hitters that defy the curve you find out later had help. Like for example Palmeiro. Or suspected guys like Cruz. I'm sure it happens outside of that but they are outliers for a reason.

Edited May 27, 2018 by wrathofhahn

[ron883]

9 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

Like who? People who have done regression models have proven for most players regression happens after age 29 and the huge dropoff starts at 32-33.

Most of the guys with same style of hitters that defy the curve you find out later had help. Like for example Palmeiro. Or suspected guys like Cruz. I'm sure it happens outside of that but they are outliers for a reason.

It's possible Jose is doping. Putting up numbers similar to his rookie campaign at age 31. Best shape of his life too. You never know.

[wrathofhahn]

Just now, Hot FiRe said:

It's possible Jose is doping. Putting up numbers similar to his rookie campaign at age 31. Best shape of his life too. You never know.

The point is fans never think players are going to regress. For example Bautista (who likely had help) or Donaldson.

But FO need to be smarter. The overwhelming evidence is players 33+ years old are bad bets to make that is Abreu age on his next extension so we burn through his most valuable years left to sign him to an extension through his decline when we are ready to compete?

How does that make any sense? People aren't thinking with their head when it comes to Abreu.

[Dick Allen]

12 minutes ago, Hot FiRe said:

It's possible Jose is doping. Putting up numbers similar to his rookie campaign at age 31. Best shape of his life too. You never know.

The more likely case of doping are your Jose Abreu related posts the last several years. It is just amazing how bad he has made you look, but you refuse to let go, and he makes you look even worse.

Edited May 27, 2018 by Dick Allen

[southsider2k5]

59 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

Like who? People who have done regression models have proven for most players regression happens after age 29 and the huge dropoff starts at 32-33.

Most of the guys with same style of hitters that defy the curve you find out later had help. Like for example Palmeiro. Or suspected guys like Cruz. I'm sure it happens outside of that but they are outliers for a reason.

There is a list of guys that have hit past 33.  Even just in Chicago you can look at a guy like Paul Konerko.  Frank Thomas had some huge seasons in his late 30's.  Miguel Cabrera is continuing to hit.  Victor Martinez is another name that comes to mind, as well as Chipper Jones.  Carlos Beltran has continued to hit into his last 30's, as has Adrian Beltre.

[Sarava]

We don't need to look very far to see how fast this thing can come together. Last year the Sox fought most of the way with the Phillies for the worst record in baseball. Today the Phillies stand in 1st place, 2 months in to this season. Look how fast the Cubs went from perennial losers to one of the best teams in baseball. We all saw that happen in our own back yard.

If the Sox go on a spending spree this winter, which they should given their absurdly low payroll commitments going forward. And if some prospects come up and excel right away, there's no saying the Phillies of this year couldn't be the Sox next year. Probably not, but it's possible.

To hurt their chances moving forward by trading off the best player, to me seems absurd. They're not going to get an Eloy or a Kopech back for Abreu. 

[wrathofhahn]

58 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

There is a list of guys that have hit past 33.  Even just in Chicago you can look at a guy like Paul Konerko.  Frank Thomas had some huge seasons in his late 30's.  Miguel Cabrera is continuing to hit.  Victor Martinez is another name that comes to mind, as well as Chipper Jones.  Carlos Beltran has continued to hit into his last 30's, as has Adrian Beltre.

Look you are coming up with a handful of names who are outliers some of which have been accused of using roids (Beltre actually has been proven). The data is the data this has already been done the regression rates of these ages are clear.

So we can either hope Abreu is an outlier, hope he is using roids, or do the smart thing and move on and trade him when he has the most value.

Edited May 27, 2018 by wrathofhahn

[Jose Abreu]

1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

The more likely case of doping are your Jose Abreu related posts the last several years. It is just amazing how bad he has made you look, but you refuse to let go, and he makes you look even worse.

Whenever Abreu (rarely) does something bad, he's the first to jump on it.

Whenever Abreu is doing well, there's always an excuse. He's doping, it's because he's facing easy pitchers, etc. You'd think 5 seasons of production would be enough to end that cycle.

[southsider2k5]

17 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

Look you are coming up with a handful of names who are outliers some of which have been accused of using roids (Beltre actually has been proven). The data is the data this has already been done the regression rates of these ages are clear.

So we can either hope Abreu is an outlier, hope he is using roids, or do the smart thing and move on and trade him when he has the most value.

Handful?  You are saying one.  And you are using it as some sort of catch all to eliminate anyone who does hit later in their career.  That isn't really "data".

[Kyyle23]

 

[fathom]

5 minutes ago, Tony said:

And there is zero way for you to define what “value” is in this case, as we are all unaware of offers are out there for Jose.

Again, this is franchise that has traded Sale, Q and Eaton in a short amount of time. Don’t think you Abreu would be on the move if the Sox could get “Value” back. It’s not a video game, there isn’t a “force trade” option available. 

To me, Abreu is only moved if they get exactly what they want (like Q).  Sale and Eaton were getting moved no matter what.

[GreenSox]

8 minutes ago, fathom said:

To me, Abreu is only moved if they get exactly what they want (like Q).  Sale and Eaton were getting moved no matter what.

That seems like a good approach; although I think they really did want to move Q.  Don't get that feeling with Abreu, but I hope they are open to it.

[wrathofhahn]

5 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Handful?  You are saying one.  And you are using it as some sort of catch all to eliminate anyone who does hit later in their career.  That isn't really "data".

 

I think you are confused. The point is they are all outlier cases regardless of reason I just wanted to make the point that when you hear these older players like Beltre, like Gary Sheffield, like Palmeiro, probably the most famous case being Bonds in many cases these guys prolong their careers via unnatural means.

Like I said earlier the data is the data and yes there are outliers but when you offer an extension you are absorbing a certain amount of risk and in Abreu case it would be a bad risk. So it becomes whether or not it makes sense to keep him for the 1.5 years left we have of control with where this club is at I would argue if we get a good offer it we should move him because we'd be wasting his best years and surplus value playing on a non-competitive club.

And if we acquired prospects more inline with our timeline (2-3 years away) it would make more sense

Edited May 27, 2018 by wrathofhahn

[ptatc]

6 hours ago, fathom said:

To me, Abreu is only moved if they get exactly what they want (like Q).  Sale and Eaton were getting moved no matter what.

Yes. It's all about the return value. If a team wants to give the sox a return that is worth more than his value to the Sox, Trade him. If not, he stays.

[ptatc]

26 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

 

I think you are confused. The point is they are all outlier cases regardless of reason I just wanted to make the point that when you hear these older players like Beltre, like Gary Sheffield, like Palmeiro, probably the most famous case being Bonds in many cases these guys prolong their careers via unnatural means.

However, like I said earlier the data is the data it's just a bad bet to take (extension) and for me doesn't make sense at all.

You managed to put the two biggest a$$holes I encountered in my time in the MLB in one sentence. Thanks for ruining my holiday weekend.

[wrathofhahn]

6 hours ago, Tony said:

And there is zero way for you to define what “value” is in this case, as we are all unaware of offers are out there for Jose.

Again, this is franchise that has traded Sale, Q and Eaton in a short amount of time. Don’t think you Abreu would be on the move if the Sox could get “Value” back. It’s not a video game, there isn’t a “force trade” option available. 

That's correct but I could do the math on surplus value and figure out what we could expect. Just going off his surplus value if he continues his torrid pace this year he'll be worth 26.8 million surplus value (based on fangraphs 8.2 million WAR). Assuming he's moved on July 30 that means we'll likely have played around 100 games. Making his surplus value to his new club of 10.3 million (62 games)

Next year projecting 162 games and a standard .5 WAR decline he'll be worth 4.2 WAR or 34.4 million total value. Projecting around 18 million salary that equals 16.4 million surplus value.

So 10.3 million + 16.4 million equals 26.7 million. Thats basically the value of a 40-50th ranked prospect. I'm confident some team will offer that.

[caulfield12]

http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post/_/id/18519/olney-hitters-who-cant-beat-the-heat-getting-left-behind

Details (midway through the article) some of the struggles that veteran hitters (Goldschmidt is the prime example, hasn’t had a hit on a single mid 90’s fastball and above YET this year)...are having with the threefold increase in high velocity pitches, especially as most starters are only going through line-ups twice and relievers are throwing harder and harder.

So BAA fastballs (two and four seamers) is going to be one of the strongest indicators for Abreu losing (something) from his previous fastball dominating self.

[southsider2k5]

2 hours ago, wrathofhahn said:

 

I think you are confused. The point is they are all outlier cases regardless of reason I just wanted to make the point that when you hear these older players like Beltre, like Gary Sheffield, like Palmeiro, probably the most famous case being Bonds in many cases these guys prolong their careers via unnatural means.

Like I said earlier the data is the data and yes there are outliers but when you offer an extension you are absorbing a certain amount of risk and in Abreu case it would be a bad risk. So it becomes whether or not it makes sense to keep him for the 1.5 years left we have of control with where this club is at I would argue if we get a good offer it we should move him because we'd be wasting his best years and surplus value playing on a non-competitive club.

And if we acquired prospects more inline with our timeline (2-3 years away) it would make more sense

It's all risk.  Let's not pretend that just because we get "prospects" that they are going to somehow replace what we are giving up.  What I see is in all the examples of hitters that do keep hitting into their mid and late 30's they seem to be bigger and stronger guys who primary tool is a big hit tool, while being strong enough to make those hits go for power.  The tool that ages the least well is speed, and let's face it, that is nothing that Abreu needs to worry about.  The guys I listed in previous posts as having defied those numbers are very similar to Abreu in the type of players that they are.  It is also worth noting that while you are posting a league average number, just by a statistical nature, there are outliers to those.  I really think Abreu profiles as the type of hitter who will hit into his mid to maybe even late 30's and is the kind of guy that a team should be OK with extending.

[caulfield12]

Konerko was a great fastball hitter until injuries started to take their toll...maybe the best fastball hitter of the last 20 years for the White Sox.  That's almost always the FIRST thing to go, bat speed (of course, along with pure foot speed and athleticism).

The poster child for a 30's decline is probably Albert Pujols, but there's always been the scent of steroids around him because of how his body has seemingly broken down, and how precipitous his decline has been (exacerbated by advanced stats/metrics, because his traditional numbers alone like HR's and RBI's don't look terrible at all).

[wrathofhahn]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Konerko was a great fastball hitter until injuries started to take their toll...maybe the best fastball hitter of the last 20 years for the White Sox.  That's almost always the FIRST thing to go, bat speed (of course, along with pure foot speed and athleticism).

The poster child for a 30's decline is probably Albert Pujols, but there's always been the scent of steroids around him because of how his body has seemingly broken down, and how precipitous his decline has been (exacerbated by advanced stats/metrics, because his traditional numbers alone like HR's and RBI's don't look terrible at all).

That is an excellent point as well as the ESPN article. Abreu is very dependent on his bat speed because he doesn't really walk much.

If he starts to swing through some of those pitches and has trouble with the fastball that could cause major problems

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

It's all risk.  Let's not pretend that just because we get "prospects" that they are going to somehow replace what we are giving up.  What I see is in all the examples of hitters that do keep hitting into their mid and late 30's they seem to be bigger and stronger guys who primary tool is a big hit tool, while being strong enough to make those hits go for power.  The tool that ages the least well is speed, and let's face it, that is nothing that Abreu needs to worry about.  The guys I listed in previous posts as having defied those numbers are very similar to Abreu in the type of players that they are.  It is also worth noting that while you are posting a league average number, just by a statistical nature, there are outliers to those.  I really think Abreu profiles as the type of hitter who will hit into his mid to maybe even late 30's and is the kind of guy that a team should be OK with extending.

Saying everything is a risk isn't a valid argument. Of course it is but as a fan I want my GM to take smart calculated risks not just throw up his hands and say screw it everything is a risk lets ignore the data and give Abreu a major extension.

And yes I also realize prospects are a bet too but the thing is by age 33 Abreu will have likely declined and if we give him an extension we will directed dollars on a declining player that could have been spent elsewhere.

That's sort of the thing the risk isn't equal that is why I posted the numbers earlier. The average 33 year old 1B/DH will have significantly declined and will only further decline as he gets older (likely little or no surplus value in his extension). If we even get one top 25-50 hitting prospect on average we will have gained around 30 million of surplus value over the course of his career. So yeah Abreu could be an outlier and the prospects could flame out but that is an unlikely scenario.

That's why I posted the numbers earlier to show this.

 

[BlackSox13]

10 hours ago, Tony said:

And there is zero way for you to define what “value” is in this case, as we are all unaware of offers are out there for Jose.

Again, this is franchise that has traded Sale, Q and Eaton in a short amount of time. Don’t think you Abreu would be on the move if the Sox could get “Value” back. It’s not a video game, there isn’t a “force trade” option available. 

This is a great point. None of us know what teams have offered or will offer for Abreu. I remember last year coming out of ST some felt Hahn missed the boat on trading Q and should have taken the best offer over the winter. I think most would agree that Hahn's patience payed off.

 

Personally I think if Hahn gets an offer that meets or exceeds his asking price Abreu is gone. If not then worst case scenario is we get to watch Abreu tear it up for another 1.5 years, which I'm absolutely fine with. Also, I feel Abreu's bat will age well over the next 3-4 years so I wouldn't complain if the Sox decided to extend him.

 

 

 

 

[southsider2k5]

47 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

That is an excellent point as well as the ESPN article. Abreu is very dependent on his bat speed because he doesn't really walk much.

If he starts to swing through some of those pitches and has trouble with the fastball that could cause major problems

Saying everything is a risk isn't a valid argument. Of course it is but as a fan I want my GM to take smart calculated risks not just throw up his hands and say screw it everything is a risk lets ignore the data and give Abreu a major extension.

And yes I also realize prospects are a bet too but the thing is by age 33 Abreu will have likely declined and if we give him an extension we will directed dollars on a declining player that could have been spent elsewhere.

That's sort of the thing the risk isn't equal that is why I posted the numbers earlier. The average 33 year old 1B/DH will have significantly declined and will only further decline as he gets older (likely little or no surplus value in his extension). If we even get one top 25-50 hitting prospect on average we will have gained around 30 million of surplus value over the course of his career. So yeah Abreu could be an outlier and the prospects could flame out but that is an unlikely scenario.

That's why I posted the numbers earlier to show this.

 

I  could post the numbers that show most prospects post 0 WAR in their careers too.

Also if anyone had been willing to pay that for Abreu, he would have been gone already. Your value idea for him is insanely high compared to what teams are willing to pay. We are not getting a top 25 prospect.  That is insanity.

[greg775]

13 hours ago, wrathofhahn said:

The point is fans never think players are going to regress. For example Bautista (who likely had help) or Donaldson.

But FO need to be smarter. The overwhelming evidence is players 33+ years old are bad bets to make that is Abreu age on his next extension so we burn through his most valuable years left to sign him to an extension through his decline when we are ready to compete?

How does that make any sense? People aren't thinking with their head when it comes to Abreu.

What? Half this board would be fine with him getting traded It's not like there are 99 greg's clamoring to keep Jose A. From the things I've heard Hahn say in the past I am thinking he will be dealt at the trade deadline this year. But I hope Hahn gets buried in the press for doing it. Jose has been so consistent with the Sox. The 3 prospects the Sox get for him ... there's no guarantee they'll do squat. Sox are getting a no. 4 pick in this draft in a couple weeks, a No. 1 pick next year and probably a top four pick the following year. Those are 3 more prospects to add to the system. No need to trade Jose for 3 more.

[Dam8610]

3 hours ago, greg775 said:

What? Half this board would be fine with him getting traded It's not like there are 99 greg's clamoring to keep Jose A. From the things I've heard Hahn say in the past I am thinking he will be dealt at the trade deadline this year. But I hope Hahn gets buried in the press for doing it. Jose has been so consistent with the Sox. The 3 prospects the Sox get for him ... there's no guarantee they'll do squat. Sox are getting a no. 4 pick in this draft in a couple weeks, a No. 1 pick next year and probably a top four pick the following year. Those are 3 more prospects to add to the system. No need to trade Jose for 3 more.

Greg, if you're so convinced that Abreu can be a key component to the next competitive White Sox team, then why are you so against trading him? The timeline looks like 2020 at this point, and he can be resigned for the 2020 season. If you trade him, you get more building blocks for 2020-20??, and he can be resigned for 2020. If you keep him, you get production that is counterproductive to team goals for 2018 and 2019. I'm hoping that this rebuild sticks like the 90s-00s Braves, and that's more likely if they trade Abreu than if they don't.