2019 MLB draft thread

[DirtySox]

3 minutes ago, Flash said:

Vaughn was the best hitter (college or HS) last year and he is even more dialed-in this year. He is on a rediculous pace that would mark the most productive season in NCAA history. His track record as being in a league of his own goes back to HS. Sure pitchers will be extra careful and start pitching around him. That said, I can see teams buying into the narrative that 1B is less important and therefor pick a MI/CF. I understand in some instances 1B is a 'default-to' position but, all you have to do is watch Rizzo, Freeman, Votto and, to a lesser extent Hosmer and count how many throwing errors they save (vs. say Abreu) to appreciate the value of a 1B who can play defense, especially with the way shifts are employed today. I can get behind Rutschman, a HS MI w/upside or a lights out pitcher with the 3rd pick but I just don't buy passing up Vaughn because he is a 1B.  

I'm fine with many of the options at the top right now. I feel like there's no chance Adley slips to three. Fangraphs even upgraded him to a 60 FV recently. That being said, it will be interesting to look at the draft tendency of both Baltimore and KC. Baltimore has a new scouting director I believe. We know that Vaughn fits the White Sox drafting trend to a T. That's assuming he gets there though.

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

Problem is you don't know who is going to be a superstar. Every once in a while there is a floor ceiling total package like harper but usually with HS players the high upside guys  also have high risk.

There are the mike trouts and bo bichettes but also Alex Jackson or tim beckham.

At least in the top 5, they have carried pretty good value recently. Even when they bust out at the major league level, they still carry value for some time in the minors.

One scary part with vaughn is if he hits AA and has just a .850 ops or something, that's a big hit to his value. You are basically saying he needs vlad jr type bat, and he may have it. It's not a safe pick, but elite bats should not be underrated.

 

[Flash]

2 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

I'm fine with many of the options at the top right now. I feel like there's no chance Adley slips to three. Fangraphs even upgraded him to a 60 FV recently. That being said, it will be interesting to look at the draft tendency of both Baltimore and KC. Baltimore has a new scouting director I believe. We know that Vaughn fits the White Sox drafting trend to a T. That's assuming he gets there though.

Good point. I read somewhere that Baltimore brought in a scouting director(?) with direct ties to Witt. Also, KC losing their cathcher to TJ for all of 2019 (as well as drafting a plethora of pitchers last year) might indicate Rutschman won't make it to #3, assuming Baltimore takes Witt (big assumption).  As we sit here today, its hard to envision how we can F@#* it up. 

[bmags]

6 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

I'm fine with many of the options at the top right now. I feel like there's no chance Adley slips to three. Fangraphs even upgraded him to a 60 FV recently. That being said, it will be interesting to look at the draft tendency of both Baltimore and KC. Baltimore has a new scouting director I believe. We know that Vaughn fits the White Sox drafting trend to a T. That's assuming he gets there though.

Baltimore has such an uphill battle and new fo as you said.

My prediction is if they value adley equally to another player, they'll take lowest deal and try to save up. 

However, AZ also has 6 top 75 picks, so you have to think about how much you can even compete with a team that has such flexibility.

KC we have no idea, but judging by last years draft, if Adley slips to them I have a hard time seeing them passing him up, I could also see them go vaughn. If it goes Adley/Vaughn 1-2, I don't think the sox should feel bad about that.

[bmags]

1 minute ago, Flash said:

Good point. I read somewhere that Baltimore brought in a scouting director(?) with direct ties to Witt. Also, KC losing their cathcher to TJ for all of 2019 (as well as drafting a plethora of pitchers last year) might indicate Rutschman won't make it to #3, assuming Baltimore takes Witt (big assumption).  As we sit here today, its hard to envision how we can F@#* it up. 

Well we could certainly mess it up, but we only have so much knowledge of these guys, so the exciting part is having some really exciting player types available.

[DirtySox]

22 minutes ago, bmags said:

Baltimore has such an uphill battle and new fo as you said.

My prediction is if they value adley equally to another player, they'll take lowest deal and try to save up. 

However, AZ also has 6 top 75 picks, so you have to think about how much you can even compete with a team that has such flexibility.

KC we have no idea, but judging by last years draft, if Adley slips to them I have a hard time seeing them passing him up, I could also see them go vaughn. If it goes Adley/Vaughn 1-2, I don't think the sox should feel bad about that.

If the Sox are "forced" into one of Witt/Abrams, for the love of god please take the one who has a better hit tool (Abrams at this point?). That's one area I simply have no confidence in as far as player development goes.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

38 minutes ago, Flash said:

Good point. I read somewhere that Baltimore brought in a scouting director(?) with direct ties to Witt. Also, KC losing their cathcher to TJ for all of 2019 (as well as drafting a plethora of pitchers last year) might indicate Rutschman won't make it to #3, assuming Baltimore takes Witt (big assumption).  As we sit here today, its hard to envision how we can F@#* it up. 

Baltimore hasn't hired a scouting director.  Elias is doing both jobs.

[bmags]

23 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

If the Sox are "forced" into one of Witt/Abrams, for the love of god please take the one who has a better hit tool (Abrams at this point?). That's one area I simply have no confidence in as far as player development goes.

I felt better when kiley said their hit tool isn't that far off, sounds like witt improved with scouts in some summer/fall tournaments.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

48 minutes ago, bmags said:

At least in the top 5, they have carried pretty good value recently. Even when they bust out at the major league level, they still carry value for some time in the minors.

One scary part with vaughn is if he hits AA and has just a .850 ops or something, that's a big hit to his value. You are basically saying he needs vlad jr type bat, and he may have it. It's not a safe pick, but elite bats should not be underrated.

 

The vast majority of superstar position players were drafted as HS players.  Trout, Harper, Betts, Machado, Arenado, Lindor, Yelich, Stanton, Freeman, Votto, Realmuto, Seager, Bellinger etc.  Sure there are  superstar college hitters like Bregman, Judge, Bryant, and Rendon but if you want a superstar position player odds are he's going to be a HS draft.

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

The vast majority of superstar position players were drafted as HS players.  Trout, Harper, Betts, Machado, Arenado, Lindor, Yelich, Stanton, Freeman, Votto, Realmuto, Seager, Bellinger etc.  Sure there are  superstar college hitters like Bregman, Judge, Bryant, and Rendon but if you want a superstar position player odds are he's going to be a HS draft.

Completely agree. 

Big difference with them is they are usually athletically superior (most will go to majors instead of college), and with the great ones you see them rise up levels and improve instead of just maintain due to their athleticism getting unlocked as more and more of their baseball instincts develop, while our college prospects just come in and you just hope they can be 60% of what they were in college.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

The vast majority of superstar position players were drafted as HS players.  Trout, Harper, Betts, Machado, Arenado, Lindor, Yelich, Stanton, Freeman, Votto, Realmuto, Seager, Bellinger etc.  Sure there are  superstar college hitters like Bregman, Judge, Bryant, and Rendon but if you want a superstar position player odds are he's going to be a HS draft.

Psssshh, Harper was drafted out of JuCo. ?

[Harold's Leg Lift]

9 minutes ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

Psssshh, Harper was drafted out of JuCo. ?

Cross him off then! 

[steveno89]

24 minutes ago, bmags said:

Completely agree. 

Big difference with them is they are usually athletically superior (most will go to majors instead of college), and with the great ones you see them rise up levels and improve instead of just maintain due to their athleticism getting unlocked as more and more of their baseball instincts develop, while our college prospects just come in and you just hope they can be 60% of what they were in college.

It really can go either way. The upside tends to be higher with elite high school prospects, but stars can come from the college ranks as well. 

 

2 hours ago, DirtySox said:

If the Sox are "forced" into one of Witt/Abrams, for the love of god please take the one who has a better hit tool (Abrams at this point?). That's one area I simply have no confidence in as far as player development goes.

I worry about the Sox ability to develop a high end HS position prospect as well, especially due to lack of track record. The last one they tried was Hawkins, who failed miserably.

[bmags]

1 minute ago, steveno89 said:

It really can go either way. The upside tends to be higher with elite high school prospects, but stars can come from the college ranks as well. 

 

I worry about the Sox ability to develop a high end HS position prospect as well, especially due to lack of track record. The last one they tried was Hawkins, who failed miserably.

It's become a self fulfilling prophecy, they were really 0-2 in last 20 years. You could take many years of college pitching and say we are 0-2 in many of those samples. So then they are hoping the limited selection of high schoolers in later rounds panned out to prove it, which is also a crap shoot.

If you look at other teams, they'll fail on some hs picks. They'll succeed on several too.

This isn't a pro white sox development take, moreso that we don't really know how good or bad they are because they don't really try. I mean, if they had drafted corey seager would corey seager suck? Man hopefully not.

[Dominikk85]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

At least in the top 5, they have carried pretty good value recently. Even when they bust out at the major league level, they still carry value for some time in the minors.

One scary part with vaughn is if he hits AA and has just a .850 ops or something, that's a big hit to his value. You are basically saying he needs vlad jr type bat, and he may have it. It's not a safe pick, but elite bats should not be underrated.

 

Some recent top5 HS hitters:

2015 Kyle Tucker

2014 Nick Gordon

2013 Clint Frazier

2012 correa Buxton

2011 bubba sterling

 

Looks quite good, only sterling is a complete bust.

 

What you said about Vaughn is right of course. It doesn't have to be quite vlad though. If it is Peter alonso it would be ok too. Vaughn has a little less power than alonso but a better hit tool according to the fangraphs guys so he could be a similar prospect.

 

[Dominikk85]

1 hour ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

Psssshh, Harper was drafted out of JuCo. ?

But after graduating early from HS, so he essentially was hs age

[SoxAce]

1 hour ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

Psssshh, Harper was drafted out of JuCo. ?

He was 17. I'll allow it.

[bmags]

31 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

Some recent top5 HS hitters:

2015 Kyle Tucker

2014 Nick Gordon

2013 Clint Frazier

2012 correa Buxton

2011 bubba sterling

 

Looks quite good, only sterling is a complete bust.

 

What you said about Vaughn is right of course. It doesn't have to be quite vlad though. If it is Peter alonso it would be ok too. Vaughn has a little less power than alonso but a better hit tool according to the fangraphs guys so he could be a similar prospect.

 

And brendan rodgers is still a top 10-20 prospect, so he holds a lot of value, I'd argue pretty confidently more than pete alonso.

[OneDog847]

1 hour ago, steveno89 said:

It really can go either way. The upside tends to be higher with elite high school prospects, but stars can come from the college ranks as well. 

 

I worry about the Sox ability to develop a high end HS position prospect as well, especially due to lack of track record. The last one they tried was Hawkins, who failed miserably.

The highlight of Courtney Hawkin's career was the standing backflip that he did live during the Draft show. Dude never even made it out of AA. Colossal bust. 

I do not see the Sox taking Witt or Abrams if Adley and Vaughn go 1.1 and 1.2. They will most likely just pivot to the next best college player available. 

[DirtySox]

Fangraphs Draft Update:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/another-draft-rankings-update/

Quote

Texas Tech 3B Josh Jung and Vanderbilt RF J.J. Bleday both have some buzz in the industry as being in the mix to be the third-best college bat behind Oregon State C Adley Rutschman and Cal 1B Andrew Vaughn (both recent risers themselves); Jung and Bleday have moved up to reflect this. Bleday is off to a quick start and looks more athletic than he has in the past, while Jung is a hit-first type who could improve considerably with more loft in his swing in pro ball, but compares favorably to some recent top-10 overall college bats. Others college bats in that mix are UNLV SS Bryson Stott, North Carolina LF Michael Busch, and the big riser in the last update, Missouri RF Kameron Misner.

Some other good tidbits within as well.

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

Fangraphs Draft Update:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/another-draft-rankings-update/

Some other good tidbits within as well.

Could Bleday be why hahn was at the vandy game?

[DirtySox]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

Could Bleday be why hahn was at the vandy game?

Good call.  I'll use this opportunity to post BA's Bleday scouting report. This has probably changed some considering the rise in stock, as it was posted on January 25th.

Quote

Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 205 | B-T: L-L
Commit/Drafted: Padres '16 (39)
Scouting Report: A two-year starter at Vanderbilt, Bleday led the Commodores in hitting this spring and he followed it up with a strong summer in the Cape Cod League. Bleday is listed at 6-foot-3, 205 pounds and looks the part of a right fielder. He has good pitch recognition and does a good job of consistently barreling the ball. The lefthanded hitter has a balanced swing, produces good bat speed and got to his plus raw power better this summer than he has previously. Bleday has plus arm strength and covers ground in the outfield. Players with his profile don’t often go in the first round, but if he makes a jump with his power, like Oregon State’s Trevor Larnach did this spring, he could become an exception to the rule.

 

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

9 hours ago, [email protected] said:

But after graduating early from HS, so he essentially was hs age

Lol I know I was just messing around.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Maybe Graeme Stinson is someone that could slip to the 2nd RD for us.

So far, Adley is the only player who a FV above 50, as he sits at a 60 FV.

That would make Adley the best offensive draft prospect since 2016's Corey Ray had a 60 FV.

And if you put Madrigal in this year's class, he would slot in #2 behind Adley with a 55 FV.

[Jack Parkman]

14 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

The vast majority of superstar position players were drafted as HS players.  Trout, Harper, Betts, Machado, Arenado, Lindor, Yelich, Stanton, Freeman, Votto, Realmuto, Seager, Bellinger etc.  Sure there are  superstar college hitters like Bregman, Judge, Bryant, and Rendon but if you want a superstar position player odds are he's going to be a HS draft.

Thirded. I wonder what it is with pitching as well. I looked it up and the majority of ace quality pitchers were actually college arms. 

Of ace quality pitchers, at some point in their career, that were draft eligible: 

College: 

Verlander

Scherzer

Sale 

Kluber

DeGrom

Cole 

Nola

HS: 

Kershaw

Bumgarner

Syndergaard 

Snell

Out of the following pitchers, the following were NOT top 10 picks: 

Sale 

Kluber 

DeGrom

Snell 

Syndergaard

Of this group, Kluber and DeGrom were NOT 1st round picks and Snell and Syndergaard were Comp A picks(between 1st and 2nd rounds). We all know where Sale was drafted, and IIRC he was rated 4th best prospect going into the 2010 draft but he fell into the Sox lap because of groupthink. 

If this tells you anything, it is that you can get a superstar position player anywhere but to get an ace you damn well better get him in the top 10. 

 

 

Edited March 5, 2019 by Jack Parkman