2019 MLB draft thread

[Harold's Leg Lift]

Someone in the organization should realize that Jr is too advanced for even them to fuck him up.  Then hopefully Hostetler is gone after the draft.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

I think more than anything, how they’ve handled 2nd round/1st round comp picks has been my largest gripe. 

But regardless, there was huge importance on getting these draft picks right. The difference between 11 and 17 in a draft isn’t huge. But the rebuild just looks so different if you draft Kirilloff and not Collins. Or Kieboom and not Burdi. 

I’m in 100% agreement.  I’m not a huge fan of Hahn at the moment, but he did add a substantial amount of high-end talent with his big three trades (which he should have given the assets being traded).  The problem is we’ve failed to supplement that much via the draft and that’s downright inexcusable IMO.  

Most rankings have only have two or three of our top 10 prospects being draft picks, which is pretty damn nuts.  Only one of those guys is a legit 100 prospect, which is also pretty pathetic.  A big part of that is playing it way too safe with our high picks.  Hostetler has actually had some nice mid & late round finds, but he needs to start prioritizing ceiling much more at the top of the draft in the future and that means seriously considering high school talents.  

If Adley & Vaughn are off the table at #3 in this next draft and we pass on Witt or Abrams for a safe college pick (I know a lot can change between now and June), I’ll be beyond livid.  That being said, I’m fairly optimistic  after last year’s draft where we took three HS kids in the first 11 rounds, that our willingness to take HS is finally changing for the better.

[Harry Chappas]

11 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m in 100% agreement.  I’m not a huge fan of Hahn at the moment, but he did add a substantial amount of high-end talent with his big three trades (which he should have given the assets being traded).  The problem is we’ve failed to supplement that much via the draft and that’s downright inexcusable IMO.  

Most rankings have only have two or three of our top 10 prospects being draft picks, which is pretty damn nuts.  Only one of those guys is a legit 100 prospect, which is also pretty pathetic.  A big part of that is playing it way too safe with our high picks.  Hostetler has actually had some nice mid & late round finds, but he needs to start prioritizing ceiling much more at the top of the draft in the future and that means seriously considering high school talents.  

If Adley & Vaughn are off the table at #3 in this next draft and we pass on Witt or Abrams for a safe college pick (I know a lot can change between now and June), I’ll be beyond livid.  That being said, I’m fairly optimistic  after last year’s draft where we took three HS kids in the first 11 rounds, that our willingness to take HS is finally changing for the better.

He couldn't supplement those to form a winner at the MLB level.  You or I could have made those trades to get those players... After that he has done nothing to build the organization.  The drafts are embarrassing. 

[DirtySox]

 

[Quin]

2 hours ago, DirtySox said:

 

Jesus.

At this point, let Vaughn go #2.

[Quin]

16 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m in 100% agreement.  I’m not a huge fan of Hahn at the moment, but he did add a substantial amount of high-end talent with his big three trades (which he should have given the assets being traded).  The problem is we’ve failed to supplement that much via the draft and that’s downright inexcusable IMO.  

Most rankings have only have two or three of our top 10 prospects being draft picks, which is pretty damn nuts.  Only one of those guys is a legit 100 prospect, which is also pretty pathetic.  A big part of that is playing it way too safe with our high picks.  Hostetler has actually had some nice mid & late round finds, but he needs to start prioritizing ceiling much more at the top of the draft in the future and that means seriously considering high school talents.  

If Adley & Vaughn are off the table at #3 in this next draft and we pass on Witt or Abrams for a safe college pick (I know a lot can change between now and June), I’ll be beyond livid.  That being said, I’m fairly optimistic  after last year’s draft where we took three HS kids in the first 11 rounds, that our willingness to take HS is finally changing for the better.

Via the draft the Top 10 isn't loaded, yes, but let's do a total breakdown of the Top 30 via Future Sox.

#1 - Eloy: Trade
#2 - Kopech: Trade
#3 - Cease: Trade
#4 - Robert: Signing
#5 - Madrigal: Draft
#6 - Dunning: Trade --> Not a Top 100 at time of trade
#7 - Adolfo: Signing --> Has had his ups and downs, could end up being Top 100
#8 - Collins: Draft --> Former Top 100, could get there again
#9 - Basabe: Trade
#10 - Gonzalez: Draft --> 3rd rounder who seems to do everything right.
#11 - Rutherford: Trade
#12 - Hansen: Draft --> This man is an enigma but can easily be Top 100 when he's on, out of baseball when he's not
#13 - Burdi: Draft
#14 - Burger: Draft
#15 - Walker: Draft
#16 - Zavala: Draft --> 12th Rounder
#17 - Hamilton: Draft
#18 - Sheets: Draft
#19 - Stephens: Draft
#20 - Johnson: Draft
#21 - Bush: Draft --> 33rd Rounder
#22 - Lambert: Draft
#23 - Flores: Draft
#24 - Pilkington: Draft
#25 - Rivera: Draft --> 28th Rounder
#26 - Sosa: Signing
#27 - Curbelo: Draft
#28 - Stiever: Draft
#29 - Medeiros: Trade
#30 - Adams: Draft

The Sox aren't quite churning draftees at the major league level yet, but they've definitely gotten significantly better at drafting in Hostetler's time.

[Lillian]

7 hours ago, DirtySox said:

 

How do these numbers compare to those produced by Harper, Trout, A-Rod and Ken Griffey, Jr.? Those guys were all drafted out of H.S.

[Dominikk85]

1 hour ago, Lillian said:

How do these numbers compare to those produced by Harper, Trout, A-Rod and Ken Griffey, Jr.? Those guys were all drafted out of H.S.

It is quite normal that hs draftees hit above 500. 

Zack Greinke hit over 400 with tons of homers in HS

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zack_Greinke

[GenericUserName]

1 hour ago, Lillian said:

How do these numbers compare to those produced by Harper, Trout, A-Rod and Ken Griffey, Jr.? Those guys were all drafted out of H.S.

ARod hit .505 with 9 HRs and 35 stolen bases without a caught stealing in 33 games, but it sounds like he also used a wood bat in games so that is a difficult comparison.

Griffey only played his JR and SR years of HS (spent the others at spring training instead of on his HS team) but hit .478 with 17 homeruns combined over the two years and I think 54 games.

Trout hit .531 with 18 HRs and 20 steals in 81 at bats as a senior.

Harper batted .626/.723/1.339 with 14 homers, 22 doubles, 9 triples, 36 steals, 76 runs and 55 RBI in 115 games as a high school sophomore (his last year of high school). Then as a 17 year old playing at a JuCo (with a wood bat) he hit .442/.524/.986 with 29 home runs, 89 RBI, 88 runs and 18 stolen bases in 62 games.

Really though you shouldn't compare stats. Nothing about the games these guys played in is anything coming close to standardized. They played with different types of bats against different levels of competition over different time periods and in different weather conditions. To me, the only thing you should look for in the numbers is new concerns and if anything supports or contradicts previous scouting reports. For instance, we knew Witt had power and his 8 homeruns confirms that. On the other hand, we though Abrams had a really good hit tool but he hasn't hit as well this year so maybe we should look at that again or see if there are other factors.

[Lillian]

I don't know how one would go about trying to evaluate a high school kid's ability to hit. He has likely never faced anything close to the kind of "stuff," which he would see in professional baseball. At least a pitcher can be evaluated on the basis of his pitches and command.

[GenericUserName]

2 minutes ago, Lillian said:

I don't know how one would go about trying to evaluate a high school kid's ability to hit. He has likely never faced anything close to the kind of "stuff," which he would see in professional baseball. At least a pitcher can be evaluated on the basis of his pitches and command.

That's why the summer circuit is so huge for the high school guys. Its the only time most of them will be consistently facing like competition. Once you get into their HS seasons, besides the pop up player who just developed recently, most guys really only slide down draft boards because you really aren't going to see anything new that is good, but you might see something new that is bad.

[Dominikk85]

54 minutes ago, Lillian said:

I don't know how one would go about trying to evaluate a high school kid's ability to hit. He has likely never faced anything close to the kind of "stuff," which he would see in professional baseball. At least a pitcher can be evaluated on the basis of his pitches and command.

There are prospect showcases like perfect game were they face the top HS pitchers. Those are a small sample so stats don't mean much but scouts use the eye test to evaluate how the players do against top pitchers. If there are lots of Ks and pop ups it is a bad sign while consistent and strong contact is a good sign.

 

Can't really judge ops or Ba though since the sample is so small so it is more eyeball scouting.

Hs scouting is always more eyeball scouting than stat scouting which is why some modern sabermetric GMs don't like drafting them high. You get a few stats like tee exit velo or throwing velo but mostly it is eyeball scouting while with college stats you can do more "moneyball" kind of scouting and measure production.

Edited March 17, 2019 by [email protected]

[Harold's Leg Lift]

42 minutes ago, Lillian said:

I don't know how one would go about trying to evaluate a high school kid's ability to hit. He has likely never faced anything close to the kind of "stuff," which he would see in professional baseball. At least a pitcher can be evaluated on the basis of his pitches and command.

First thing you have to figure out is does he have "feel" to hit. Does he consistently hit the ball on the barrel. Can he handle an inside fastball. Then you can evaluate his swing mechanics/athleticism.  Does he have bat speed. Does he have a strong hand load. Does he have a good hand/bat path.  Does he use his lower half.   Does he have good balance.  Is it a groove swing. Does he have good pitch recognition. Can he recognize spin. 

 

It's not easy but these are all things that must be evaluated in all young hitters before you look at the players stats. 

[Dominikk85]

26 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

First thing you have to figure out is does he have "feel" to hit. Does he consistently hit the ball on the barrel. Can he handle an inside fastball. Then you can evaluate his swing mechanics/athleticism.  Does he have bat speed. Does he have a strong hand load. Does he have a good hand/bat path.  Does he use his lower half.   Does he have good balance.  Is it a groove swing. Does he have good pitch recognition. Can he recognize spin. 

 

It's not easy but these are all things that must be evaluated in all young hitters before you look at the players stats. 

Yes, it is a lot more subjective than college scouting, basically it is still the "old school" scouting. 

Still the uncertainity is bigger than for college players because there are many guys with good swing who are not hitting pro pitching. 

[bmags]

26 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

There are prospect showcases like perfect game were they face the top HS pitchers. Those are a small sample so stats don't mean much but scouts use the eye test to evaluate how the players do against top pitchers. If there are lots of Ks and pop ups it is a bad sign while consistent and strong contact is a good sign.

 

Can't really judge ops or Ba though since the sample is so small so it is more eyeball scouting.

Hs scouting is always more eyeball scouting than stat scouting which is why some modern sabermetric GMs don't like drafting them high. You get a few stats like tee exit velo or throwing velo but mostly it is eyeball scouting while with college stats you can do more "moneyball" kind of scouting and measure production.

Is this true?

Though production is hard to measure, I would imagine they value the type of athleticism and other spare-like metrics that you need to draft high school or international to get because college gets so picked over before they start.

With HS you are judging them on where they are going to be if you develop them, which as I’ve said, is great because you are challenging them with tougher competition as they are improving both physically and mentally.

I am not against college players but the focus on them means you miss out on players with high upside.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

10 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

Yes, it is a lot more subjective than college scouting, basically it is still the "old school" scouting. 

Still the uncertainity is bigger than for college players because there are many guys with good swing who are not hitting pro pitching. 

College stats can be subjective too.  Does he play in a good conference.  Is the conference up or down that year.  Does he play in a hitter/pitcher friendly park. Is he doing his damage against the Friday guy or is he beating up on the weekday guys.

 

In my opinion you can never scout stats for any amateur player.  Tools first.

[bmags]

12 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

College stats can be subjective too.  Does he play in a good conference.  Is the conference up or down that year.  Does he play in a hitter/pitcher friendly park. Is he doing his damage against the Friday guy or is he beating up on the weekday guys.

 

In my opinion you can never scout stats for any amateur player.  Tools first.

There’s things like trackman though that do modernize it. In the wrong hands though...

[longshot7]

Went to the Oregon St/UCLA game today - Rutschman went 4-5 w 2 hrs and one was a moon shot. Christ, I hope he falls to #3

[caulfield12]

Witt and Abrams would fit the timeline perfectly to replace Anderson after 2023, fwiw.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

The Cal Baseball twitter is trash. The kid running it doesn't seem to understand that many are following that account simply for Vaughn updates. It's not hard to tweet out what he has done in his ABs. It's 4-5 tweets per game. Hell, even a recap tweet at the end of each game about his performance would be helpful.

Anyway, today he went 1/3, 2 HBP, SB, 0 BB, 0 K. His average fell to .414. He's the only one hitting over .300 in their lineup. I can't believe he gets pitched to.

[Dominikk85]

Rutschman has been even hotter than vaughn so far this year hitting 456/619/895.

Imo there is no doubt he will go 1-1, he could be buster posey.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

2nd RD pick potential Drey Jameson on Friday..... 6 1/3 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 11 K.

Now has 50 K to 10 BB in 29 2/3 IP.

[bmags]

1 hour ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

2nd RD pick potential Drey Jameson on Friday..... 6 1/3 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 11 K.

Now has 50 K to 10 BB in 29 2/3 IP.

I feel like 90% certain sox will draft Tommy Henry and then they will all joke about being michigan alums for weeks.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

They might as they don't have an issue with guys who have a one piece arm action (Stiever). I just hope it's not in the 2nd. 

[bmags]

41 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

They might as they don't have an issue with guys who have a one piece arm action (Stiever). I just hope it's not in the 2nd. 

One thing that's going to be tough with getting a high schooler in 2nd round is AZ has all of those comp picks. Worried we are going to pick a college 1b again.