2019 MLB draft thread

[fathom]

I know we recently discussed Misner's stats in conference play, but Andrew Vaughn has been horrible.  Barely hitting over .200 (5/24) with no power and more strikeouts than walks.  Not a chance in hell should he be a top 3 pick given his performance this season.

[Flash]

11 hours ago, fathom said:

I know we recently discussed Misner's stats in conference play, but Andrew Vaughn has been horrible.  Barely hitting over .200 (5/24) with no power and more strikeouts than walks.  Not a chance in hell should he be a top 3 pick given his performance this season.

I agree. I've been a huge supporter of Vaughn's based on his other-worldly numbers in the past but as he has fallen back to earth, his appeal at #3 just isn't there. Sure he can turn it around but this stretch shows how human he is. Unless Rutschman falls in our lap, I'm pulling for Witt (unless Abrahms gives reason to get excited). 

[DirtySox]

 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

Priester is going to be the second HS pitcher taken.  Kid's got it all.  

Edited April 6, 2019 by Harold's Leg Lift

[turnin' two]

11 hours ago, Flash said:

I agree. I've been a huge supporter of Vaughn's based on his other-worldly numbers in the past but as he has fallen back to earth, his appeal at #3 just isn't there. Sure he can turn it around but this stretch shows how human he is. Unless Rutschman falls in our lap, I'm pulling for Witt (unless Abrahms gives reason to get excited). 

If I had posted before you, this is what I would have said.  Nicely done.  

[Harold's Leg Lift]

He's the same guy he was a month ago.  He hasn't suddenly forgotten how to hit.  It's baseball. 

[DirtySox]

3 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

He's the same guy he was a month ago.  He hasn't suddenly forgotten how to hit.  It's baseball. 

Yup. Draft thread gonna draft thread. The pendulum is going to swing the other way soon, as he went 2 - 3 with a HR 2B and BB yesterday.

[Dominikk85]

4 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

He's the same guy he was a month ago.  He hasn't suddenly forgotten how to hit.  It's baseball. 

I agree. But he also wasn't going to he a 1.600 ops guy, his true talent is probably in between. I still think he is probably the best college bat. Bishop has been crazy but track record matters too, I think you need to be careful with guys having one huge breakout year. Sure players develope but it could also be a huge career year and some regression following. 

Vaughn has done it for 3 years, he still is the safest pick, even rutschman "only" was good for two years after a bad freshman year.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

8 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

Yup. Draft thread gonna draft thread. The pendulum is going to swing the other way soon, as he went 2 - 3 with a HR 2B and BB yesterday.

Yeaaaaaaa!!!!!  He's good again!!!!!

[bmags]

I still worry with Vaughn. Yes, I am one that complains about body scouting being too inaccurate/too relied on, but it worries me that Vaughn doesn’t appear to have anything more that he can tap into. In this draft, at three maybe that’s still one of the best profiles available. 

But you really don’t get that many chances (hopefully!) to get a player with the types of athleticism/power of Witt or athleticism/speed/potential of Abrams.

[DirtySox]

I think I prefer Abrams to Witt at this point. Especially if Abrams truly has the better hit tool. Also, Abrams clips.

 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

I go:

1. Adley 

2. Jr

3. Abrams

 

I won't be upset if they took Abrams over Jr. I will be very upset if they pass on both of them for a college bat not named Adley.  

 

[ron883]

Not that this is anything we don't know, but people reacting to Vaughn's struggles as of late are doing so because he absolutely has to mash his brains out to be a viable pick at #3. 

[DirtySox]

43 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

I go:

1. Adley 

2. Jr

3. Abrams

 

I won't be upset if they took Abrams over Jr. I will be very upset if they pass on both of them for a college bat not named Adley.  

 

I respect that. I'm personally bullish on Vaughn. I'm at:

1.) Adley

2.) Vaughn

3.) Abrams

4.) Witt

After that I'm kinda all over the place. I think I'd be okay with any of Bishop/Bleday/Lodolo.

[fathom]

13 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

I respect that. I'm personally bullish on Vaughn. I'm at:

1.) Adley

2.) Vaughn

3.) Abrams

4.) Witt

After that I'm kinda all over the place. I think I'd be okay with any of Bishop/Bleday/Lodolo.

What about Bleday is intriguing?  

[Harold's Leg Lift]

5 hours ago, ron883 said:

Not that this is anything we don't know, but people reacting to Vaughn's struggles as of late are doing so because he absolutely has to mash his brains out to be a viable pick at #3. 

He won the Golden Spikes award as a sophomore.  He's mashed.  If he's not mashing now it's most likely because he's pressing and not because he forgot how to hit.  

[PolishPrince34]

http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/26465134/law-brennan-malone-jack-leiter-standouts-prep-showcase

write up from the HS prep showcase. Law down on Abrams flat swing

[fathom]

1 hour ago, PolishPrince34 said:

http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/26465134/law-brennan-malone-jack-leiter-standouts-prep-showcase

write up from the HS prep showcase. Law down on Abrams flat swing

Yeah I get that he has amazing athleticism, but Abrams rawness just seems like a bad fit for our development team.  

[Boopa1219]

1 hour ago, fathom said:

Yeah I get that he has amazing athleticism, but Abrams rawness just seems like a bad fit for our development team.  

Stop saying that, this is a new scouting and player development staff for the Sox. Getz and Hostetlet haven’t drafted and developed this type of player before and just because something doesn’t work out, it doesn’t mean you should stop. I mean Adam Dunn didn’t work out, should the Sox stop signing LH power bats? If the Sox want to be a consistent winner, they need to be able these type of players as they have the highest ceilings. You also don’t want a system devoid of athleticism. 

[Boopa1219]

Just now, Joshua Strong said:

Stop saying that, this is a new scouting and player development staff for the Sox. Getz and Hostetlet haven’t drafted and developed this type of player before and just because something doesn’t work out, it doesn’t mean you should stop. I mean Adam Dunn didn’t work out, should the Sox stop signing LH power bats? If the Sox want to be a consistent winner, they need to be able these type of players as they have the highest ceilings. You also don’t want a system devoid of athleticism. 

And did Tim Anderson die? 

Isnt he a super raw and toolsy player, that plays a up the middle position, that the Sox drafted and developed successfully?

[Lillian]

With all of the top candidates being position players, it would be nice if some pitcher would emerge as a viable candidate. It's almost certain that no pitcher will be taken with the first and second pick. That means that the Sox will be afforded their pick of the best college, or high school arm, in the country. Hopefully by June, Stinson will have demonstrated his ability to successfully make his transition to starter, from former closer. Then there is the high school phenom, Espino. 

Maybe it's just a function of having had to watch that Mariner's juggernaut offensive display, over the weekend, but pitching is still the most important part of the game and with all of the TJ surgeries, a team can never have too many pitchers. It's hard to believe that there isn't one elligible, exceptional arm, in the entire country. Could the Sox go under slot, take a pitcher, and save some money for their later round picks?

The other factor, which we've often discussed, is that pitching is too risky to acquire through free agency. Arms are too expensive and too delicate, to risk committing to very expensive, multi year contracts. The risk of not having a successful draft, is still preferable to losing financial flexibility, over a bad free agent contract, for a "broken" pitcher. I wonder how nervous the Red Sox are, over extending Sale, while his velocity has dropped so dramatically. 

Who would be your top 2, or 3 pitching candidates?

Edited April 8, 2019 by Lillian

[Dominikk85]

I think  a pitcher would fit the Sox well but a third overall pick is too valuable to waste it on a non elite pitching prospect.

I'm not against a pitcher and if a guy like mize was out there this year I would say go for it but there is a reason at this draft the top10 of most lists are almost all hitters.

Fangraphs only gives one pitcher even a 50fv this draft.

My opinion is in the draft only take a pitcher top5 overall if he is half a grade better than the best available hitter.

I mean it would be stupid to take a 55 hitter over a Stephen strasburg in the draft first overall just because he is "safer". But if the best pitcher has the same or even a lower grade than the best hitter I don't think you can do it just because you need a pitcher.

[Lillian]

39 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

I think  a pitcher would fit the Sox well but a third overall pick is too valuable to waste it on a non elite pitching prospect.

I'm not against a pitcher and if a guy like mize was out there this year I would say go for it but there is a reason at this draft the top10 of most lists are almost all hitters.

Fangraphs only gives one pitcher even a 50fv this draft.

My opinion is in the draft only take a pitcher top5 overall if he is half a grade better than the best available hitter.

I mean it would be stupid to take a 55 hitter over a Stephen strasburg in the draft first overall just because he is "safer". But if the best pitcher has the same or even a lower grade than the best hitter I don't think you can do it just because you need a pitcher.

It's hard to argue with your assertion. I'm just hoping that someone emerges, with a strong enough rating, to justify selecting them, at #3. Isn't the only only reason that Stinson is not more highly regarded, that he was a closer and has only begun to be a starter? If so, there is time for him to establish his credentials as part of a rotation. That's my hope. His SO to Walk ratio is impressive and he certainly has a starter's physical stature.

Edited April 8, 2019 by Lillian

[DirtySox]

1 hour ago, Lillian said:

With all of the top candidates being position players, it would be nice if some pitcher would emerge as a viable candidate. It's almost certain that no pitcher will be taken with the first and second pick. That means that the Sox will be afforded their pick of the best college, or high school arm, in the country. Hopefully by June, Stinson will have demonstrated his ability to successfully make his transition to starter, from former closer. Then there is the high school phenom, Espino. 

Maybe it's just a function of having had to watch that Mariner's juggernaut offensive display, over the weekend, but pitching is still the most important part of the game and with all of the TJ surgeries, a team can never have too many pitchers. It's hard to believe that there isn't one elligible, exceptional arm, in the entire country. Could the Sox go under slot, take a pitcher, and save some money for their later round picks?

The other factor, which we've often discussed, is that pitching is too risky to acquire through free agency. Arms are too expensive and too delicate, to risk committing to very expensive, multi year contracts. The risk of not having a successful draft, is still preferable to losing financial flexibility, over a bad free agent contract, for a "broken" pitcher. I wonder how nervous the Red Sox are, over extending Sale, while his velocity has dropped so dramatically. 

Who would be your top 2, or 3 pitching candidates?

I would be in favor of taking some pitching at 3 if it weren't so weak at the top. The only pitcher you could feasibly pop that high is Lodolo, and even that might be a bit of a reach. He's the only 50 pitcher FanGraphs has on the board. I think the ship has sailed on Stinson. Way too much questions this season, way too may instances of sitting in the upper 80's. I'm not touching that at number three with a fifty foot pole.

[Lillian]

I just searched more information on Stinson's conversion to starting, and found this assessment encouraging, especially the 70 grade slider:

"The top-ranked pitcher in the 2019 draft class, Stinson has some of the best pure stuff in the country between a plus fastball and a 70-grade slider that routinely generates whiffs inside and outside of the strike zone. Stinson posted a 1.89 ERA while striking out more than 14 batters per nine innings in 2018, but he spent most of his time coming out of the bullpen. While there’s no doubting his swing-and-miss stuff—Stinson has fanned 143 batters in 90 collegiate innings—he will need to show that he’s capable of handling a starter’s role over a full season. He’s shown flashes that he can be a dominant Friday night arm, including six shutout innings against a powerful Texas Tech lineup in last year’s Lubbock Super Regional, but this year will be his first full season in the role. Stinson gets plenty of comparisons to former North Carolina State left hander Carlos Rodon because of his size and stuff, and he will prove a menace to batters every week throughout the season."

I also found this and I'm starting to find him intriguing:

“Somebody asked [Stinson] at the media lunch if he felt like he could get comfortable starting and he was like ‘Yeah, I have been a starter all my life up to the last 2 years,’” head coach Chris Pollard said. "He really feels like this is something that is comfortable for him because this is kind of more comfortable than what he has been doing coming out of the pen for us the last couple years.”