2019 MLB draft thread

[BackDoorBreach]

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but don't the royals have a highly touted C prospect?  I can't remember his name but I don't think I'm making it up.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

50 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but don't the royals have a highly touted C prospect?  I can't remember his name but I don't think I'm making it up.

M.J. Melendez

[turnin' two]

21 hours ago, Lillian said:

Vaughn was 3 for 4, with a double. Seems to be back on track.

Bishop was 1 for 4 with his 17TH homer, (in just 32 games). I still prefer him, over Vaughn. Left handed hitter, with good speed, over a right handed, first baseman, with average speed. Vaughn has been a "baseball rat," his whole life. Imagine what Bishop would be doing, if he had always dedicated himself to baseball.

I'm not generally in favor of the idea of going after great athletes, with the hope that they can be turned into baseball players. However, what intrigues me about Bishop is that he has now established himself as a legitimate baseball player, even though he has come to the sport late in his athletic career. That suggests that he still has a lot of room for growth. It's scary to think about how good he might be, if he continues to develop. In the meantime, what he has already accomplished this year is quite remarkable. For me, it isn't even close. I'd take him over any other college player, with the possible exception of Rutschman, because Adley is a switch hitting catcher. 

Why does this keep being brought up as if it is true?  Haven't the Sox ( and plenty of other teams) drafted plenty of guys with this thought process that didn't ever get better at an accelerated rate, or at all for that matter?

[SoxBlanco]

5 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Why does this keep being brought up as if it is true?  Haven't the Sox ( and plenty of other teams) drafted plenty of guys with this thought process that didn't ever get better at an accelerated rate, or at all for that matter?

The first name I think of when I hear that description of not playing baseball until later in life is Tim Anderson, and he continues to get better. Which specific White Sox draft picks are you thinking about?

[turnin' two]

2 hours ago, SoxBlanco said:

The first name I think of when I hear that description of not playing baseball until later in life is Tim Anderson, and he continues to get better. Which specific White Sox draft picks are you thinking about?

Joe Borchard, Josh Fields, Jared Mitchell, Spencer Adams, Trayce Thompson, Trey Michaelczewski... I'm sure there are more.

[Boopa1219]

2 hours ago, turnin' two said:

Joe Borchard, Josh Fields, Jared Mitchell, Spencer Adams, Trayce Thompson, Trey Michaelczewski... I'm sure there are more.

Just because these players failed doesn’t mean the Sox should stop drafting these types of players. 

[Lillian]

For the benefit of "Turnin' two," or anyone else who might have misunderstood my post, regarding Bishop's yet untapped potential, allow me to clarify. The point is simply that, while he is the nation's leading collegiate hitter, in most offensive categories, there may still be tremendous upside, owing to the fact that he has only recently focused on the sport of baseball. There is a difference between drafting a great athlete, in hopes of turning him into a baseball player, and drafting a proven baseball player, who still has untapped raw potential.

The logic is compelling and shouldn't need to be corroborated by a great number of examples. For every Joe Borchard, and Jared Mitchell, there are plenty of Tim Andersons, Joe Mauers, Kirk Gibsons, Todd Heltons and other 2, or 3 sport athletes, who regarded baseball as their "second sport". Who would question whether, or not, Bo Jackson could have become one of the best all time baseball players, if he had stayed healthy? Hunter Bishop has already done enough to establish himself as a baseball player, but it is reasonable to assume that he still has more room for growth, because he hasn't played the game as long as most baseball players, his age. 

Adam Engel had a similar background to Bishop's. He was also a star high school football player, with aspirations of playing in the NFL. Instead, like Bishop, he decided to play college baseball, also as a center fielder. Comparing the college careers of the two, should underscore what Bishop has achieved. A quick glance at Engel's junior year stats will illustrate my point. In 256 at bats, he hit 1 home run and batted .236. His OPS was .668. Although Engel is a far below average MLB hitter, he is probably a better hitter now, than he was, as a college player, which suggests that he was very raw, when drafted. Compare that to Bishop's remarkable performance, in his junior year. It is the combination of the raw athletic ability and the already accomplished production, that I find so intriguing about Bishop.

Edited April 15, 2019 by Lillian

[bmags]

9 hours ago, turnin' two said:

Why does this keep being brought up as if it is true?  Haven't the Sox ( and plenty of other teams) drafted plenty of guys with this thought process that didn't ever get better at an accelerated rate, or at all for that matter?

Plenty of draft picks fail.

[Y2Jimmy0]

19 hours ago, KnightsOnMintSt said:

For those of you that follow the draft more closely, who do we THINK the White Sox will take with their 1st pick?

I think the Sox end up with Andrew Vaughn and that pick would be a no brainer. If Vaughn and Rutschman are both off the board, I think the Sox would either take Witt Jr or Lodolo honestly. I don't buy that they'd reach on the next college hitter with a HS phenom on the board. It doesn't make sense. They could go Lodolo though. I've heard they are very fond of him. Hahn went to UNLV to see Stott during spring training. I just don't see any scenario in which he's the BPA. 

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

I would like to see the Sox take a lot of pitching in this draft. Obviously they need to take the BPA available at every pick, but infusing more pitching into the system would be great given all the injuries they have had lately.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

Agreed.  I don't think they should take a pitcher at 1-3 but I'd like to see them load up on high ceiling arms after the first round.  

[Chicago White Sox]

7 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Agreed.  I don't think they should take a pitcher at 1-3 but I'd like to see them load up on high ceiling arms after the first round.  

I agree with this.  Seems like last year’s draft strategy was more or less how I’d go after round 3 with a nice mix of upside college arms and HS bats.

I also think we should be able to add some high variance arms at the deadline by trading guys like Colome & Herrera.

[turnin' two]

7 hours ago, Joshua Strong said:

Just because these players failed doesn’t mean the Sox should stop drafting these types of players. 

 

3 hours ago, bmags said:

Plenty of draft picks fail.

Yeah.  Obviously.  But the narrative of "this guy is newer to baseball, so he will get even better than other guys because now he is more focused" seems like complete hogwash to me, and I don't know of any evidence to support it.

If you are going to draft him, draft him because of what kind of player he is and projects to be.  If you are expecting a jump from ____/`````` just because he isn't playing football anymore, that seems like a wishing and hoping more than scouting,evaluation and planning.

Edited April 15, 2019 by turnin' two

[soxfan49]

12 hours ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

M.J. Melendez

Didn't he allegedly murder his parents a decade or two ago in Los Angeles?

[steveno89]

2 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I think the Sox end up with Andrew Vaughn and that pick would be a no brainer. If Vaughn and Rutschman are both off the board, I think the Sox would either take Witt Jr or Lodolo honestly. I don't buy that they'd reach on the next college hitter with a HS phenom on the board. It doesn't make sense. They could go Lodolo though. I've heard they are very fond of him. Hahn went to UNLV to see Stott during spring training. I just don't see any scenario in which he's the BPA. 

If Adley and Vaughn are off the board, I really hope Witt Jr. or Abrams is the pick instead of reaching for a college player. This organization needs a pipeline of talent for down the road as well, and while a high school player does not ideally fit into our current rebuild schedule, not taking BPA would be a mistake. 

[Baker]

Catcher Shea Langeliers has been back in action for some 3 weeks now after missing several weeks with a hand injury. In 100 AB he’s batting .285 with 3HR  , 2 of them this weekend. 

His draft stock has slid from Top 10 to back of the 1st round. As we know hand injuries can rob a player of power for some time. Maybe the Sox can overslot him for the 2nd round pick.  He was the D1 gold glove catcher last year. 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

I'd much rather see them grab an arm with the 2nd round pick.  I had questions about Langeliers hit tool and durability before the injury.  I'd rather them find a catcher a little later.  Guys like Cooper Johnson, Drew Milas and Phillip Clarke should be around in the later rounds of day 2. 

[bmags]

8 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

I'd much rather see them grab an arm with the 2nd round pick.  I had questions about Langeliers hit tool and durability before the injury.  I'd rather them find a catcher a little later.  Guys like Cooper Johnson, Drew Milas and Phillip Clarke should be around in the later rounds of day 2. 

Do you know anything about Blake Walston (Lhp prep). I read two sentences I liked, about his size and curve ball. Know nothing else.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

That's a new name for me but if he's a big lefty who can spin it I'm in!

[bmags]

1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

That's a new name for me but if he's a big lefty who can spin it I'm in!

Oh the other thing I liked was he'll only be 17 on draft day. This says he tops out at 90 though. Sure is fun researching this stuff when we'll probably draft a college 1b overslot in the second round!

https://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Playerprofile.aspx?ID=551758

[DirtySox]

Kiley chat day. Lotsa draft stuff picked out below.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-4-17-19/

Quote

Jeff

1:30

Any new buzz inside the top 10 of the draft?

Kiley McDaniel

1:32

An unusual amount of KC fans were interested/outraged/surprised that I said last week most of the industry thinks KC will take Andrew Vaughn at 2. Still seems that way, but talked to some folks this week that think they'll go with Bobby Witt, conceding that it's probably one of the two. CHW would definitely not pass on Vaughn if KC did and rumors have MIA leaning college as well, but the top college guy at that point isn't as clear. A recent shuffle at the top of our rankings has Nick Lodolo and JJ Bleday as their best options.

Quote

Shooter

1:32

Couple of draft questions...what are you hearing on Kody Hoese, and what the hell happened to Mitchell Senger?

Kiley McDaniel

1:33

Senger is a lefty from Stetson, a mid major school with a sneaky-good track record for pitching (Kluber, deGrom, Logan Gilbert, Mitchell Jordan, now Senger). He got the yips early and now is back on track, out of the pen. Could be a Nick Sprengel-type late flier based on a solid track record.

1:34

Hoese is a popup 3B at Tulane that sounds like someone will take in the 2nd round this year. Was eligible last year but not really on the radar, was taken late. Stronger and with a better approach this year, he's putting up bonkers numbers, may only be a 4 bat, is 22 on draft day and doesn't have 60 raw power, but can play 3B and performers with some tools kinda run out around the late 2nd round, so there he is.

Quote

Greg

1:35

Is Hunter Barco a guy with signability issues?

Kiley McDaniel

1:36

I wouldn't say issues in that he's gonna be unsignable past a certain very early pick, but he strikes me as a Joey Wentz-type situation where he likely goes in the comp round for overslot. Jack Leiter is a similar situation, but may have a price as high as $4M+, so he could be a school guy.

Quote

Anderson's BABIP

1:39

Lodolo's ceiling, solid mid-rotation arm?

Kiley McDaniel

1:39

Possible #2 if he puts all the elements together. Depending on the day, he'll show three 60 pitches and 55 command, but I don't think he's shown all 4 in any one start this year.

Quote

No Bunts

1:40

Could Lodolo be a realistic option at #3?

Kiley McDaniel

1:40

It sounds like he is in CHW's mix with some college bats if Rutschman-Vaughn go 1-2

Quote

Bobby Higginson

1:41

Of the college shortstops ranked around the first round (Stott/Wilson/Shewmake/Jones/Davidson) which are the most likely to have to move off the position at the pro level?

Kiley McDaniel

1:42

Stott is a yes, Davidson is a little lower but yes, Shewmake is fine and is about 50/50 to be SS/2B,, Jones has the tools but may fit better at 2B or CF, Wilson is probably 2B or C but passable at SS.

Quote

Pickle Nick

1:44

How far does Carter Stewart fall come June ? As a JUCO guy at what point (round) does he likely go back to school to rebuild value?

Kiley McDaniel

1:45

Sounds like he wants to sign and interest is anywhere from 15 to 45 to not really interested, depending on the team

I would guess he goes 20 to 35

Quote

Reid

1:45

Hi Kiley, thanks for the chat. At what point do high school pitchers and high school righties become undervalued in the draft, simply because enough teams refuse to take them? Thinking of Liberatore falling last year despite the obvious gifts.

Kiley McDaniel

1:46

It's a tough market to square because the late developments of 1) medicals, which we don't see and only really hear about post draft and 2) a club having the nerve to pick a prep RHP end up dictating where these guys go.

1:47

A guy could be a consensus 10-15 talent, but 10-12 all had access to higher-ranked guys, 13 doesn't like his arm action, 14-15 are a little worried about the medical, 16-17 don't take prep RHP, 18-19 found an underslot candidate they like just as much and now that prep RHP is going 20th and it wasn't like that consensus was wrong, it just shook out unluckily for him

this sort of thing happens a lot more for prep RHP than other demographics

Quote

Freddy

1:48

If both were available in this draft who would be picked higher Spencer Torkelson or Andrew Vaughn?

Kiley McDaniel

1:48

Vaughn

Quote

Hinkie

1:49

Noah Song is a senior and has a Naval commitment, but he looks like an interesting prospect .  How does all this play out for him?

Kiley McDaniel

1:49

Sounds like 3rd-4th for someone and since he's 22 it's probably underslot

Quote

Oliver

1:51

Hi Kiley. Do you know of any signability concerns for players, or is it too soon? Also, are you allowed to tell us about them? Thank you!

Kiley McDaniel

1:54

We don't always report every piece of info we have about makeup and signability for various reasons, but it's all considered in rankings/mocks. Typically the guys committed to the best schools (combo of education/baseball) like UVA/Vandy, etc. are safe bets to all have a high number and the multi-sport guys are usually tougher signs as both groups have extra leverage. Jack Leiter is definitely the big one now, due in large part to Vandy/wealthy family and Ealy/Hampton as football guys are also concerns but both probably sign if they go in a good spot on day 1 as expected. There will be more that pop up later, but we mostly knew the tough signs at this point last year, like Cole Wilcox and Kumar Rocker. If prep RHP that slide 10 picks past their consensus/expectation, lots of them become kinda unsignable b/c the money starts to dry up.

Quote

D back fan

1:59

Is Corbin Carroll at 16 realistic or is he long gone?

Kiley McDaniel

1:59

Probably gone unless you can buy him down

Quote

Jim

1:59

Who has the best change-up in this college draft class?

Kiley McDaniel

1:59

Evan McKendry at Miami

Quote

D back fan

2:00

Hearing anything for D-Backs at 16 and 26? Go underslot at 26 with a safe sign considering they forfeit the pick if unsigned? Are they in on Tommy Hunter or Stinson?

Kiley McDaniel

2:00

There's maybe 6-8 players they can't get to those picks, so really everyone else in the class is on the board. Don't think they even have an idea how they want to approach it yet in a specific sense.

2:01

Where we see their director, VP, GM, special assistants showing up in the coming month will tell us a lot

and we pay very close attention to that stuff, as do other clubs

Quote

Jim

2:04

Who are the best seniors in this draft that are getting some mid round buzz?

Kiley McDaniel

2:04

They are marked with ** on THE BOARD

2:05

Noah Song, Ryne Olenek, Antoine Duplantis and Evan Edwards are the only ones on there right now, so that's you top tier

really, it's Song, then Olenek, then a bunch of other guy with Edwards and Duplantis among the top ones

Quote

Ben

2:09

So in the NFL draft, there's always this thing prior where the NFL writers put some of the QBs in the late 1st/second round group, and they always seem to go top 12 because hitting on one is too valuable and you don't risk missing it. Is there an equivalent profile/position that you think this happens with in the mlb draft?

Kiley McDaniel

2:10

College bats get moved up like QBs (but not as much) and HS RHP get moved down like running back (but not as much)

Quote

Bobby Bradley's 40-time

2:16

Josh Jung playing some SS? Thoughts?

Kiley McDaniel

2:16

He's 3B in pro ball and may not last there for all of his 20's

Quote

Allen

2:19

Any word on Graeme Stinson? He hasn't pitched in over a month and the team isn't being all that forthcoming with information.

Kiley McDaniel

2:20

I don't know what the situation is exactly, but scouts assume it'll have some sort of medical intervention at some point and that he will be a reliever. Obviously the medical will come between now and the draft and that gray area will be less hazy for clubs.

Quote

BlueJayMatt

2:20

Jays draft at 11 - will Nick Lodolo or Kameron Misner be available there?

Kiley McDaniel

2:20

Lodolo almost certainly no, Misner probably is there

Quote

Guest

2:21

Best prospect that should be available the Marlins should draft. I want Andrew Vaugh but not sure if he will fall to 4.

Kiley McDaniel

2:22

There's a 1% chance he's there

Quote

Andy

2:22

What the hell happened to Tyler Dyson? Is he to the 5-7 round range now?

Kiley McDaniel

2:22

Something like that, he's a reclamation project and could be going back to school depending on what he thinks is the best way to get back on track

Quote

Zack

2:22

Does CJ abrams sign with his drafted team or go to Alabama?

Kiley McDaniel

2:23

Chance of not signing seems very remote

Quote

Jimmy

2:23

Thoughts on Massey from Illinois?

Kiley McDaniel

2:24

Solid middle infielder with a wide base of tools. Fits the TBR style of player to a T. The day Eric and I saw Massey in Arizona, TB had a high level scout there, which made me chuckle.

Quote

Miles

2:28

This James Beard JUCO kid from MS, super fast, know anything more about him?

Kiley McDaniel

2:28

Literally off-the-scale runner but for some scouts he's so raw at the plate that they wouldn't draft him

I'm sure someone will take a chance

 

Edited April 17, 2019 by DirtySox

[Quin]

If the Royals take Witt, I'd rather we take Lodolo than Vaughn at this point.

[bmags]

I would still take Vaughn if we are deadset against high schoolers.

 

[DirtySox]

33 minutes ago, bmags said:

I would still take Vaughn if we are deadset against high schoolers.

 

I think I still prefer Vaughn slightly to both high schoolers.

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

I think I still prefer Vaughn slightly to both high schoolers.

And I understand this, realistically we will have a fairly high draft pick next year, however, and it just seems like one of the rare opportunities to take a stab at these type of profiles: a power hitting up the middle infielder.  Even if he doesn't play for us, that's ridiculous value.

Prior to playing, how much value was Pete Alonso? Now that he's there, you know, it's huge offensive value and I get that and that's why I'd still like Vaughn.