2019 MLB draft thread

[GenericUserName]

19 minutes ago, mqr said:

Chicago Marist?

Yep. One is an OF/1B named Jason Hodges (FG #133). Dude is built and has some ridiculous power, but doesn't make enough contact right now. Other guy is Kendal Ewell who seems to be more of a raw five tool type.

There is a decent amount of talent from the area in the draft. Antoine Kelly (FG #104) is a pitcher at Wabash Valley JC who is played HS at Maine East.

Also in the area is a catcher out of St. Laurence named Matt McCormick (FG #121) as well as a LHP out of Nazareth named Michael Prosecky and a SS out of St. Rita named Jalen Greer, both of whom are ranked as other HS guys in the FG rankings.

https://www.prepbaseballreport.com/news/IL/Illinois-2019-Rankings-Updated-0834257619

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

17 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

For those in favor of the Sox drafting Abrams, I'm curious what you propose the Sox do at first base in the coming years.  The options would seem to be (1) signing a declining 33 year old to a 3-4 year extension, (2) keeping and extending a player currently hitting .172, (3) transitioning Collins to first base, although he's never played the position and almost certainly won't have the bat to be a benefit there, (4) hoping Burger can develop into a quality first basemen, despite the same concerns with Collins plus the unknown of his recovery from injury, or (5) signing one of the aging, mediocre-at-best, free agent first basemen.  All terrible options in my opinion.

While you don't draft strictly for need at the big league level, people are burying their heads in the sand if they don't see that first base is going to be a huge need in the coming years (hopefully contending years), while shortstop is not.

They are likely bringing back Abreu. If they don't, one of their options (Collins, Burger, Eloy, etc) could play over there. CJ Cron was signed off the scrap heap. 1B are easy to find. Just pay for one. I'd be in favor of JD Martinez on a new 5-year deal. You know what the Sox won't be able to afford? A young player like CJ Abrams in his prime. Could Abrams bust? 100%. It's about percentage outcomes though. If he never develops power, he's still a major league regular at a premium position. If Vaughn gets hurt or struggles in the minors, he'd debuting at 23-24 and has to absolutely rake in the majors to be valuable. Now, I think he's going to rake in the majors so I'd be fine if they picked him. I completely understand why they'd go Abrams instead though and I hope that's what they do. 

[bmags]

Derek Dietrich was signed in March and has a .700 slugging percentage right now. He'll be a FA, slot him over to 1b. That's the beauty of 1b, basically anyone can be one.

[bmags]

7 minutes ago, GenericUserName said:

Yep. One is an OF/1B named Jason Hodges (FG #133). Dude is built and has some ridiculous power, but doesn't make enough contact right now. Other guy is Kendal Ewell who seems to be more of a raw five tool type.

There is a decent amount of talent from the area in the draft. Antoine Kelly (FG #104) is a pitcher at Wabash Valley JC who is played HS at Maine East.

Also in the area is a catcher out of St. Laurence named Matt McCormick (FG #121) as well as a LHP out of Nazareth named Michael Prosecky and a SS out of St. Rita named Jalen Greer, both of whom are ranked as other HS guys in the FG rankings.

https://www.prepbaseballreport.com/news/IL/Illinois-2019-Rankings-Updated-0834257619

 

Pro Hodges.

[DirtySox]

 

[bmags]

Hodges BA Writeup

Quote

Scouting Report: A 6-foot-3, 212-pound outfielder with a picturesque slugger’s frame, Hodges has plus-plus raw power and can hit the ball as far as almost anyone in the 2019 class. Most of that power is restricted to batting practice, however, as Hodges has struggled with average high school pitching and whiffs too frequently. His bat path and swing look good, mechanically, but he struggles to cover the entire plate and is frequently fooled by secondary pitches. Hodges looked better with the bat during games last summer and fall than he has this spring, so some teams might feel more comfortable with his bat moving forward. Regardless, he’ll need more patience as he develops a sound approach and becomes a more polished hitter. Hodges is athletic, but he’s an average runner who moves better in a straight line than he does out of the batter’s box or in the outfield chasing down fly balls. He’ll make the routine plays in a corner outfield spot, but his arm might be better served for left field than in right. Hodges is an Arkansas commit, and he could significantly raise his stock by getting to school and performing in the SEC.

Also of Illinois dudes, Michael Massey has a nice college write-up.

Oooh, Antoine Kelley, come on down:

Quote

Ht: 6-6 | Wt: 205 | B-T: L-L 
Commit/Drafted: Padres '18 (13) 
Scouting Report: Intrigued by his easy velocity, the Padres made a serious effort to sign Kelly as a 13th-round pick out of high school. He opted instead to head to Wabash Valley (Ill.) JC, which appears to be a wise move, as he’s more highly regarded a year later. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Kelly touched 100 mph at some point. Already, he sits at 93-95 and touches 97 from the left side with extremely easy arm action. He also optimistically has the makings of a future above-average slider. Athletic teenage lefties with this kind of stuff often hear their name called relatively quickly in the draft, especially when they strike out 19.1 batters per nine innings. Kelly does throw across his body and struggles at times to find the strike zone, but the fastball-slider combo is going to be hard for teams to ignore.

thanks @GenericUserName for the heads ups

[mqr]

Fangraphs has Abrams listed has 50 game 60 raw in FV power which seems high. 

[GenericUserName]

10 minutes ago, bmags said:

Oooh, Antoine Kelley, come on down:

I think it was the PBR podcast where they said he reminds some scouts of David Price. Obviously still very raw, but that is the kind of upside on him.

Also, does BA have Ethan Vecrumba ranked? He is an Indiana kid that had some numbers that stood out during the Super 60, but I never really heard his name much.

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, GenericUserName said:

I think it was the PBR podcast where they said he reminds some scouts of David Price. Obviously still very raw, but that is the kind of upside on him.

Also, does BA have Ethan Vecrumba ranked? He is an Indiana kid that had some numbers that stood out during the Super 60, but I never really heard his name much.

Not in their 500

[GenericUserName]

5 minutes ago, bmags said:

Not in their 500

Wow, that is just crazy to me. He is a 6'4" lefty running plus to plus-plus times with 100+ mph exit velos and a strong arm in the outfield. This is a comment from PBR from ~6 weeks ago:

Quote

4/14/19

Indiana recruit, currently ranked No. 2 in Indiana’s 2019 class, No. 59 overall. 6-foot-4, 205-pound left-handed hitter, strong, powerful athletic frame. Plus raw tools across the board who possesses rare speed/power combination. Roped a single - 101 mph off the bat - that smoked the base umpire on the shin. Ran a 4.11 down the line. Also threw out a runner at the plate from centerfield to preserve the victory in the eighth inning.

 

[35thstreetswarm]

1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

That is a fantastic article.  Thank you for sharing.

I like the idea of a hitter so good that the analytical models cannot find a comp for him.  But as a Cal-Berkeley grad, I'm admittedly biased

[bmags]

5 minutes ago, GenericUserName said:

Wow, that is just crazy to me. He is a 6'4" lefty running plus to plus-plus times with 100+ mph exit velos and a strong arm in the outfield. This is a comment from PBR from ~6 weeks ago:

 

The BA500 is obnoxiously formatted too, you have to click read more like 50 times.

I would imagine this is a scout issue. They have virtually every SEC Junior/Senior. BA does a lot of legwork but is located in NC.

They do great work but I'm guessing the difference between guys beyond 200 and those left off are more about contacts. It's an impossible task for a team like that. 

More than that, I do wonder if midwest/northern scouts may like their "hidden gem" status and try to keep guys secret.

[Quin]

30 minutes ago, mqr said:

Fangraphs has Abrams listed has 50 game 60 raw in FV power which seems high. 

Aight, I'm sold.

[DirtySox]

1 minute ago, Quin said:

Aight, I'm sold.

I was sold when Kiley said that he isn't too far off from Lindor at draft time. With the distinction of less polish defensively.

[mqr]

Just now, Quin said:

Aight, I'm sold.

Yeah, right? I'm all in on Abrams

 

[flavum]

I'd take Vaughn, but I don't care who they take...just don't mess this up. 

If they take Vaughn, I want him in the big leagues by early 2021. If they take Abrams, I want him in the big leagues before his 23rd birthday, whenever that is. Either one, everyday star player...this the third pick in the draft....don't mess it up!

[bmags]

1 minute ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

I like the idea of a hitter so good that the analytical models cannot find a comp for him.  But as a Cal-Berkeley grad, I'm admittedly biased

Vaughn really pulls at me. I really am not opposed to him as much as I really like the opportunity to get a player like Abrams.

But the part that the article hits on for me is:

yes, Goldschmidt was drafted in 7th round, but that was a huge mistake! He would quite obviously go top 5 in that redraft (I don't want to look it up but I know trout was 2009 so assuming there may be a few better from it)

So the question is will the market correct itself in identifying players that will perform so well (hoskins, goldschmidt, etc) and drafting them higher, and making them as hard to acquire as an athletic shortstop in the future?

He is going to just rake for the first 2 years, and it will bite at me the whole time. It's a really hard question.

I mean if we walked away the first three rounds with Vaughn and could afford Hampton and then get my new hearthrob antoine kelley in the 3rd? That's an insane draft.

We'll see what happens. As I said, I like pretty much all of our options.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

16 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

More

Replying to @MitchellWinkelm @JamesFox917

1st Round Picks since 2007 by WAR White Sox = 65.9 Cubs = 54.6 Royals = 52.5 Indians = 45.7 Twins = 41.1 Tigers = 25.2 Believe whatever narrative you want and sure, Sale accounts for a lot of it but it’s hard to draft in the 1st round for MLB. Incredibly hard.

43 is Sale but 24 of the Indians is Lindor, 47 of the Cubs is Bryant, Baez and Cashner, 32 of the Royals is Hosmer and Moustakas. It’s all a crap shoot

1 reply2 retweets0 likes

How do I embed tweets on here? 

11:41 AM - 26 May 2019

 

•  

For the record I dont think this is accurate as it does not count Josh Donaldson for the Cubs.

[Lillian]

2 hours ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

Interesting writeup on Vaughn that echoes the arguments about him on this board:

 

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/5/30/18645138/mlb-draft-andrew-vaughn-first-baseman-cal

 

Very interesting, indeed. This author validates my rejection of the assertion that being only 6' tall is a negative. However, height may still be a consideration, regarding defence. Being a bigger target, with a longer reach, at first, is advantageous. I wonder how good of a hitter Vaughn has to be in the Major Leagues, to justify his being picked 3RD. For me, unless he exceeds .300, .350, .500, with over 30 HR's. I'd prefer a guy who hits left handed and, or can also play a premium position. However, you can see how a team could be willing to settle for just reaching those bench marks, especially if they think the probability of reaching them is high enough. After all, those numbers aren't exactly "chopped liver". On the other hand, 30 home runs doesn't seem like much of a hurdle, these days, with the maple bats and live ball. Lot's and lot's of guys are going to have 30+ homers, this year. Last night, Abreu hit what should have been his 15TH, if he hadn't passed Tim, rounding first base, and that's in just 1/3 of the season.

Edited May 30, 2019 by Lillian

[DirtySox]

30 minutes ago, bmags said:

The BA500 is obnoxiously formatted too, you have to click read more like 50 times.

There is a "See Full List" button which expands the list to 500. Unless you mean you have to click read more to expand the scouting report itself.

[Perfect Vision]

I really think people are glossing over the first base issue.  There seems to be a general feeling that the Sox will simply sign a CJ Cron or Derek Dietrich or someone off the scrap heap and he will suddenly rake, or that Jose Abreu won't continue to decline, or that this will be an easy position for the Sox to fill.  I'm not confident at all that the Sox would be successful in signing JD Martinez or any other player viewed as a quality first basemen, or trade for a good one.

Vaughn could certainly bust or disappoint, but people a lot smarter than me think he has a good shot of being an above average bat at first base, as soon as late next year or early 2021.  I think passing on Vaughn in part because it's assumed that the Sox will have no problem getting production from first base down the line would be a mistake.

 

[mqr]

7 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

I really think people are glossing over the first base issue.  There seems to be a general feeling that the Sox will simply sign a CJ Cron or Derek Dietrich or someone off the scrap heap and he will suddenly rake, or that Jose Abreu won't continue to decline, or that this will be an easy position for the Sox to fill.  I'm not confident at all that the Sox would be successful in signing JD Martinez or any other player viewed as a quality first basemen, or trade for a good one.

Vaughn could certainly bust or disappoint, but people a lot smarter than me think he has a good shot of being an above average bat at first base, as soon as late next year or early 2021.  I think passing on Vaughn in part because it's assumed that the Sox will have no problem getting production from first base down the line would be a mistake.

 

All of this is true. It's still not how you should be approaching the 3rd pick in the draft. 

Edited May 30, 2019 by mqr

[ptatc]

1 hour ago, Perfect Vision said:

For those in favor of the Sox drafting Abrams, I'm curious what you propose the Sox do at first base in the coming years.  The options would seem to be (1) signing a declining 33 year old to a 3-4 year extension, (2) keeping and extending a player currently hitting .172, (3) transitioning Collins to first base, although he's never played the position and almost certainly won't have the bat to be a benefit there, (4) hoping Burger can develop into a quality first basemen, despite the same concerns with Collins plus the unknown of his recovery from injury, or (5) signing one of the aging, mediocre-at-best, free agent first basemen.  All terrible options in my opinion.

While you don't draft strictly for need at the big league level, people are burying their heads in the sand if they don't see that first base is going to be a huge need in the coming years (hopefully contending years), while shortstop is not.

What makes you say this? He currently has 8 HR  and .552 SLG which would be near 40 for a full season. He also has a ,375 OBP which is one of his lowest in the minors.

I don't expect that in the MLB but 30 HR and a .350 OBP seems attainable.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

The question is... would you draft Frank Thomas with the 1st pick in the draft. The obvious answer is yes. 

Given that Vaughns ceiling is the best hitter in the world, I'd say the Frank Thomas ceiling and possibility is a valid comparison.

[mqr]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The question is... would you draft Frank Thomas with the 1st pick in the draft. The obvious answer is yes. 

Given that Vaughns ceiling is the best hitter in the world, I'd say the Frank Thomas ceiling and possibility is a valid comparison.

Would you take Francisco Lindor with the first pick in the draft? This is a pretty pointless line of logic. 

I'm perfectly fine with drafting either guy.