GenericUserName Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 Here is how I feel right now (this might change by lunch): Abrams has tantalizing skills and could be an 80 runner with plus game power if everything goes right. He is the kind of guy you lose sleep over having passed on if he hits. If he is destroying the majors five years from now, we will all be talking about how we all wanted him but KW made us take someone else (because we have to blame KW for everything). However, is he a transcendent player? A type of guy who only comes around every few years? Or is he just this year's toolsy HS pick that everyone falls in love with until 3 days after the draft when the next toolsy guy is identified in the next class? Because to me, it seems like Vaughn might be that type of player, or at least that type of bat. 60 hit/60 power is a pretty rare combo that would be hard to replicate whereas I think you can find some "discount" CJ Abrams on day 2. Maurice Hampton, Jerrion Ealy, Tre Fletcher, Connor Walsh, Dasan Brown, James Beard, Hudson Head, Glenallen Hill, hell even college guys like Greg Jones, Jake Sanford, and Jordan Brewer are all tooled up guys that could be something special. The difference with all of these guys is that we wouldn't have to pass on a possibly transcendent bat to get them. If the new strategy really is "loud tools" then there are plenty of guys with tools that can approach Abrams, but how many have the combo of tools to approach Vaughn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harold's Leg Lift Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 Spencer Torkelson will be next years Andrew Vaughn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sticky Stuff Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 7 minutes ago, GenericUserName said: Here is how I feel right now (this might change by lunch): Abrams has tantalizing skills and could be an 80 runner with plus game power if everything goes right. He is the kind of guy you lose sleep over having passed on if he hits. If he is destroying the majors five years from now, we will all be talking about how we all wanted him but KW made us take someone else (because we have to blame KW for everything). However, is he a transcendent player? A type of guy who only comes around every few years? Or is he just this year's toolsy HS pick that everyone falls in love with until 3 days after the draft when the next toolsy guy is identified in the next class? Because to me, it seems like Vaughn might be that type of player, or at least that type of bat. 60 hit/60 power is a pretty rare combo that would be hard to replicate whereas I think you can find some "discount" CJ Abrams on day 2. Maurice Hampton, Jerrion Ealy, Tre Fletcher, Connor Walsh, Dasan Brown, James Beard, Hudson Head, Glenallen Hill, hell even college guys like Greg Jones, Jake Sanford, and Jordan Brewer are all tooled up guys that could be something special. The difference with all of these guys is that we wouldn't have to pass on a possibly transcendent bat to get them. If the new strategy really is "loud tools" then there are plenty of guys with tools that can approach Abrams, but how many have the combo of tools to approach Vaughn? Let’s hope this is how Baltimore views it and they pass on Adley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 25 minutes ago, GenericUserName said: Here is how I feel right now (this might change by lunch): Abrams has tantalizing skills and could be an 80 runner with plus game power if everything goes right. He is the kind of guy you lose sleep over having passed on if he hits. If he is destroying the majors five years from now, we will all be talking about how we all wanted him but KW made us take someone else (because we have to blame KW for everything). However, is he a transcendent player? A type of guy who only comes around every few years? Or is he just this year's toolsy HS pick that everyone falls in love with until 3 days after the draft when the next toolsy guy is identified in the next class? Because to me, it seems like Vaughn might be that type of player, or at least that type of bat. 60 hit/60 power is a pretty rare combo that would be hard to replicate whereas I think you can find some "discount" CJ Abrams on day 2. Maurice Hampton, Jerrion Ealy, Tre Fletcher, Connor Walsh, Dasan Brown, James Beard, Hudson Head, Glenallen Hill, hell even college guys like Greg Jones, Jake Sanford, and Jordan Brewer are all tooled up guys that could be something special. The difference with all of these guys is that we wouldn't have to pass on a possibly transcendent bat to get them. If the new strategy really is "loud tools" then there are plenty of guys with tools that can approach Abrams, but how many have the combo of tools to approach Vaughn? The one thing about throwing hampton/ealy in with Abrams is it really discounts Abrams safety in his hit tool, whereas hampton and ealy you are dealing with swing and miss and in ealy's case some maxed out physical projection (though that feels like it was way overrated for alek thomas). What I don't like about the draft discussion this year is it feels like people can see vaughn in competition and can easily transform that to imagining him in the big leagues. And with Rutschman, the 2 weeks of Bishop love, and Bleday, but with Abrams we just see a lot of "well he's just a fast high school guy". I think Law's really aggressive promotion of Vaughn has made me rate Vaughn ahead of Abrams, and I'm really hard pressed to even pass on Greene. But if we drafted abrams, hampton, fletcher/kelly that would be such an insane infusion of upside athleticism to the org that desperately needs it beyond Robert. But it also lacks big bats. It lacks power arms, but also lacks big strike throwers. It lacks a lot of elite tools now so I just want to make sure they get some. Just no college outfielder that isn't Misner in round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtySox Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 Longenhagen chat starting now. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eric-longenhagen-chat-5-31-19/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lillian Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 Is there still a consensus that Rutschman, Witt and Vaughn are all in a tier above Bleday, Abrams and any other guys, who might be considered in the 2ND tier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, Lillian said: Is there still a consensus that Rutschman, Witt and Vaughn are all in a tier above Bleday, Abrams and any other guys, who might be considered in the 2ND tier? the top tier is most often considered Rutschman Witt Vaughn/Bleday/Abrams/Green With Law its Rutschman/Witt/Vaughn then dropoff Others mention a "top 6" which includes Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Bleday and Green before a dropoff, mostly as identifying those six as the top hitters, and then the teams behind may go any number of ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtySox Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 Another very interesting Kiley piece was posted today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harold's Leg Lift Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 I think it goes: Tier 1 Rutschman, Witt Tier 2 Abrams, Bleday, Greene, Vaughn Tier 3 and beyond A giant mess of man goo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtySox Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 (edited) Quote Boots 12:31 It's very odd to see the White Sox emphatically interested in Abrams after years of college players. Has something changed strategically with them? What is driving this? Eric A Longenhagen 12:32 I guess I'd ask if you think their recent strategy is working? I wasn't on Burger, Sheets, that type of player. Not for me. Edited May 31, 2019 by DirtySox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtySox Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 That Kiley piece is super interesting. Highly recommend giving it a read. Also. Quote If an adviser represents a players who is receiving interest from those organizations deemed to be the best at hitting development and those deemed to be the worst, we know of a few prospects who are quoting different bonus demands to different clubs to maximize their draft day outcome. We fukt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxAce Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, DirtySox said: That Kiley piece is super interesting. Highly recommend giving it a read. Also. We fukt. As those guys should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtySox Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 (edited) Quote Charlie 12:46 Compare CJ Abrams to Tim Anderson for me. Profile sounds similar (speed, up the middle athlete) but Anderson seems to have more pop than Abrams whereas he is much more polished? Fair? Eric A Longenhagen 12:46 they're not similar at all, sorry 12:47 they're each fast, that's it Quote brad nj 12:45 why do people keep saying the big 6 hitters, isn't adams little to no power? Eric A Longenhagen 12:46 no, he's added mass and has at least average raw now. It isn't playing in games yet because he has a contact-oriented approach, but he's not a weakling. Edited May 31, 2019 by DirtySox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 brad nj 12:45 why do people keep saying the big 6 hitters, isn't adams little to no power? Eric A Longenhagen 12:46 no, he's added mass and has at least average raw now. It isn't playing in games yet because he has a contact-oriented approach, but he's not a weakling. Adams very likely means Abrams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lillian Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 (edited) 22 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said: I think it goes: Tier 1 Rutschman, Witt Tier 2 Abrams, Bleday, Greene, Vaughn Tier 3 and beyond A giant mess of man goo If you and "bMags" are correct and disagree with "Ray Ray," who echoes Law, then I want Bleday, over Vaughn, for all of the reasons we have discussed. To me this is the critical question. Vaughn has to be considered a tier above Bleday, to justify taking him. Wouldn't you agree that most of the experts consider at least Vaughn's hit tool, as a tier above the others? Edited May 31, 2019 by Lillian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, Lillian said: If you and "B Mags" are correct and disagree with "Ray," who echoes Law, then I want Bleday, over Vaughn, for all of the reasons we have discussed. To me this is the critical question. Vaughn has to be considered a tier above Bleday, to justify taking him. Wouldn't you agree that most of the experts consider at least Vaughn's hit tool, as a tier above the others? I'm not offering my own opinion, I was giving you a rundown of what the feeling is among the mlb pipeline, BA, fangraphs types. I can't claim to know how to scout these dudes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 ugh, Eric's chats are so terrible. His personality doesn't translate at all to chat and it comes off as really dismissive. they should have Dan Szym sit down with him to show him how to do it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtySox Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 Man. Kiley chats are so much better than Eric ones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GenericUserName Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 (edited) 17 minutes ago, DirtySox said: That Kiley piece is super interesting. Highly recommend giving it a read. Also. We fukt. I would do the same. I guess maybe we can say we are going to spend big on it in the offseason considering we have all that Machado money to spend. 12 minutes ago, DirtySox said: no, he's added mass and has at least average raw now. It isn't playing in games yet because he has a contact-oriented approach, but he's not a weakling. Damnit, now I kind of want Abrams again. F it, reverse auction and take whoever goes further under slot. Edited May 31, 2019 by GenericUserName 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTruth05 Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 Hard to really take anything of significance sometimes with Eric's chats. In terms of Abrams vs Vaughn, I trust KLaw more than any of the experts with position players. if he has Vaughn rated that high it's because he's legit. I'm leaning Vaughn even though the system needs HS talent yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtySox Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 (edited) New BA Mock. Here's the top 6. https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/ Quote 1.) BAL - Adley Rutschman The Orioles should be talking to more players than just Rutschman, and that’s exactly what they are doing. There is no leverage advantage gained by focusing on only one player, and when Mike Elias picked at the top of the draft with the Astros, they never made their pick known until right when the draft began. Most sources we talk say they still believe the Oregon State catcher will be the first name called Monday night. Quote 2.) KC - Bobby Witt Jr. Witt Jr. to the Royals is as much of a lock as anything in this draft. Quote 3.) CWS - Andrew Vaughn Here’s where things get less clear, but the options seem to be Vaughn, C.J. Abrams or J.J. Bleday if the first two picks go as planned. Quote 4.) MIA - J.J. Bleday We’ve heard for some time now that the Marlins’ scouting department really likes Bleday, so this seems to make the most sense at this point. Abrams and Riley Greene would also be considered in this situation. Quote 5.) DET - Riley Greene Like the Marlins with Bleday, we’ve heard the Tigers tied to Greene frequently this spring. If they don’t have to choose between Greene and a college bat like Vaughn or Bleday, we think they take arguably the best prep hitter in the class. This decision gets tougher if Bleday or Vaughn are on the board, but we believe the Tigers prefer Greene to Abrams. Quote 6.) SD - C.J. Abrams If Abrams doesn’t go No. 3 to the White Sox, this seems like the best landing spot for him. Each of the six names that are off the board now continue to get talked about in some order for the top six picks. This might be the first time we've seen Bleday mentioned as a White Sox possibility. Edited May 31, 2019 by DirtySox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtySox Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 BA did a staff draft for fun. They assign teams and pick who they would take in that situation (not who they think the teams would take). Carlos Collazo was assigned the White Sox. He ended up taking Bleday and Blake Walston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lillian Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 Regarding that FanGraphs piece by Kiley; How is this "Swing Change" innovation relevant to a comparison of Vaughn and Bleday? Bleday is at Vanderbilt, which Kiley mentioned as one of the more "progressive" programs. Could that account for J. J.'s sudden emergence of power? What is the program like at California? Has Vaughn developed his successful approach on his own, or is he also a product of this new thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PolishPrince34 Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 Tim: After that driveline analysis, the White Sox need to fire their whole development staff, right? 1:05 Eric A Longenhagen: that’s an extreme course of action but I agree it’s not working Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted May 31, 2019 Share Posted May 31, 2019 I would really like Walston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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