2019 MLB draft thread

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Just now, DirtySox said:

Was it @ChiliIrishHammock24 who is the big Drey fan?

Also, I didn't know Drey was a small dude. I have a soft spot for short/small pitchers. I was the Marcus Stroman cheerleader for the 2012 draft.

'Twas not I. But he's listed at 6 foot, which obviously isn't big, but that doesn't scream "super tiny" to me. Stroman is only 5'7".

[bmags]

19 minutes ago, GenericUserName said:

 

The smokescreen stuff is so weird for the mlb draft. You can't trade picks so who cares if people know your board?

[fathom]

Yeah reading the tea leaves, it very well could be the Sox with Abrams that Kiley was referring to.  He did mention he was going to see Abrams play again to see what GMs show up.

[bmags]

You never know, I bet every fan of a team in the top ten would think its them.

Could just as well be orioles.

[bmags]

21 minutes ago, fathom said:

Yeah reading the tea leaves, it very well could be the Sox with Abrams that Kiley was referring to.  He did mention he was going to see Abrams play again to see what GMs show up.

Just to further my point, his only explicit sox reference was also discussing taking Vaughn.

[Jose Abreu]

I don't get the impression at all that he's referring to the Sox there. And if he were, I think he would've said top 5 instead of top 10.  

[Harold's Leg Lift]

Agreed.  It wouldn't surprise me if it's the Rangers as I've heard they're not enamored with anyone who they think will be there at #8.  They may be looking to do something out of the box with that first pick to overslot guys at 41 and 50.

[bmags]

The 2020 class is supposedly good...if you feel that way and you are texas would you consider drafting a guy and purposely tanking the negotiation just to double up then?

[Harold's Leg Lift]

I don't think so.  The next years class is always better but some injuries and under performances and it's just average and they lost a year of development on a player.  

Saying they're not enamored doesn't mean they don't like anyone but lets say they have similar grades on Hunter Bishop or Corbin Carroll as they do on a guy like Jackson Rutledge or Brett Baty.  Why not take one of them and save $500k to spend later.  I could definitely see them doing something like that.

[DirtySox]

 

[bmags]

no Presidents. 

[DirtySox]

Some pretty interesting takes/notes from Law today in his chat. Pulled them out and posted below.

http://meadowparty.com/blog/2019/05/09/klawchat-5-9-19/

Quote

Julie

1:21

Do you see any reason why the Orioles wouldn't take Rutschman? Seems like a no-brainer, and Mike Elias seems like a reasonable guy. Are there any doubts that he's the #1 pick?

Keith Law

1:22

He's not the clear 1-1 guy in my mind. He's the best prospect, but the gap between him and Vaughn is small, and the question for Elias is whether he'd rather have Rutschman + good HS prospect (at pick 42) or Vaughn + better HS prospect because he can cut a better deal with Vaughn at 1.

Quote

Andy

1:46

Rutschman is a switch hitting college catcher,  who can field, with power. I've never seen him, but this screams Wieters, even without the Orioles conncetion.

Keith Law

1:47

He's a much better receiver today than Wieters was, and we have better data to back that up.

Quote

Dave

1:50

You seem far less bullish on Rutschman than other people in the industry. What do you see as his limitations?

Keith Law

1:50

Don't know about other people in the industry, but I know plenty of scouts who agree with me that his hit tool isn't anywhere near what Vaughn's is.

Quote

John

1:57

Any chance at this point that Abrams makes it to the Reds at 7?

Keith Law

1:58

Extremely low, but I could never say zero. What hurts is that I'm not hearing any teams above there exploring under-slot deals - highest team I've heard doing that is Texas at 8.

Quote

Erin

2:14

Any thoughts on Brady McConnell? His numbers look good this year but haven't heard much about him since he was a projected first rounder a couple years ago

Keith Law

2:14

He's hit enough the last two months or so to put himself into the top two rounds for sure, maybe even late first. I have some questions about the hit tool and ability to stay at short, but he's a really good athlete and maybe in the second round you roll the dice on that?

Quote

Dallas

2:17

White Sox have drafted Walker (18 2nd), Burger (17 1st), Sheets (17 2nd), Gonzalez (17 3rd), and Collins (16 1st) who all seem like potential 1B/DH (though I'm not entirely sure).  Is Vaughn such a good bat that they would continue down this same path?  Rutschman seems like an obvious selection for them if available but I question Vaughn.

Keith Law

2:18

I've also heard them with Abrams, because Kenny Williams likes him. (That's the story, at least.) I'd much rather take Vaughn given his history. Also, although you're correct on their last bunch of picks, I don't think Collins and Sheets matter, and Gonzalez is definitely an outfielder.

Quote

Pat

2:26

Houston took Correa way below slot in 2012, then took McCullers at like 41. Would Vaughn be the only option for the O's if they went the underslot route? Could anyone else like Abrams get in the discussion?

Keith Law

2:26

Sure. Abrams, Greene. If Carroll were 6'2" he'd be a candidate.

 

Edited May 9, 2019 by DirtySox

[Harold's Leg Lift]

7 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

Extremely low, but I could never say zero. What hurts is that I'm not hearing any teams above there exploring under-slot deals - highest team I've heard doing that is Texas at 8.

 

I heard the same thing, Keith.  ?

[OneDog847]

1 hour ago, DirtySox said:

Some pretty interesting takes/notes from Law today in his chat. Pulled them out and posted below.

http://meadowparty.com/blog/2019/05/09/klawchat-5-9-19/

 

Thanks for posting. 

Law seems to think that Collins and Sheets have no future. I get that with Sheets as he has proven to be a powerless first baseman but what about Collins? I though most people were convinced that Collins bat would play at the next level? 

Seems like KW is all about Abrams. Who makes the final call if he want Abrams and Hahn/Hostetler want Vaughn? 

 

[Quin]

4 hours ago, DirtySox said:

Some pretty interesting takes/notes from Law today in his chat. Pulled them out and posted below.

http://meadowparty.com/blog/2019/05/09/klawchat-5-9-19/

 

- Seeing any smoke on Adley not being 1-1 is enticing.

- Who in the hell sees Luis Gonzalez or Steele Walker as 1B/DH? Glad Law called that out.

[tray]

Most mock Draft boards have the Sox picking Andrew Vaughn at #3. I look at his videos and physically, he looks stocky and slow for a player his age, something like Jake Burgur.  He doesn't have the athleticism to play anywhere but  1B or maybe just DH. 

Right now Rutschman is the consensus  No.1  pick.  No chance we will get him.  I think Bobby Witt Jr. or C.J. Abrams will go at no. 2.   My hope is that the White Sox/ Hostetler/ Kenny Williams, don't out-think themselves and take either Witt or Abrams, whichever one is still available at no. 3.  

 

[SonofaRoache]

15 hours ago, OneDog847 said:

Thanks for posting. 

Law seems to think that Collins and Sheets have no future. I get that with Sheets as he has proven to be a powerless first baseman but what about Collins? I though most people were convinced that Collins bat would play at the next level? 

Seems like KW is all about Abrams. Who makes the final call if he want Abrams and Hahn/Hostetler want Vaughn? 

 

I think with Collins he may expect him to stick at Catcher possibly if the White Sox drafted Vaughn, or he could be traded to fill other spots. I don't like drafting the first base types but if you think he can hit .275 and 35 Homer's you draft him. 

[Chisox378]

I think Collins is ready but should play as a catcher. Not sure he will be good enough hitter as a DH or 1B. He is being blocked by red hot McCann and Wellington Castillo.  McCann may block him for years if McCann continues to play like this. 

Vaugn,Vaughn,and more Vaughn. I had Vaughn as the best hitter at the end of last season and again this season he is dominating. Best swing of all the top hitters. 

[Lillian]

This is the Law comment, upon which we should be focusing; "plenty of scouts who agree with me that his (Rutschman's) hit tool isn't anywhere near what Vaughn's is". If it's true that either Rutschman is not that good of a hitter, or Vaughn really is that special of a hitter, that could have a huge impact on the top of the Draft. It may mean that Adley doesn't go #1, which has pretty much been a foregone conclusion. It also may mean that the Sox could have a very interesting choice to make.

At this point, I have no idea. However, I will say this; Even if Rutschman isn't as good of a hitter as Vaughn, I would still rate him higher, based upon the fact that he is a switch hitter and is a very good defensive catcher. That has to represent more value than a slow, right handed hitting, first baseman. What Rutschman represents is a lot more useful and a lot harder to find. 

Edited May 10, 2019 by Lillian

[Chisox378]

Vaughn, Rutschman, or Abrams all won't pan out to be the best hitter in this draft. Vaughn in my opinion will be the best out of the 3, putting up solid MLB numbers, Josh Donaldson numbers. The key will be the second round pick. 

Rutschman as a switch hitter will hit .280-.290 max, 20HR, decent K to W. He does have value.

[Quin]

5 hours ago, tray said:

Most mock Draft boards have the Sox picking Andrew Vaughn at #3. I look at his videos and physically, he looks stocky and slow for a player his age, something like Jake Burgur.  He doesn't have the athleticism to play anywhere but  1B or maybe just DH. 

Right now Rutschman is the consensus  No.1  pick.  No chance we will get him.  I think Bobby Witt Jr. or C.J. Abrams will go at no. 2.   My hope is that the White Sox/ Hostetler/ Kenny Williams, don't out-think themselves and take either Witt or Abrams, whichever one is still available at no. 3.  

 

It's the MLB Draft.

It's a slim chance, but there's a chance.

2018: Mize eventually became the consensus #1, but Singer was for a long time.

2017: Consensus #1 Hunter Greene went #2

2016: Closest thing to consensus was Jason Groome (ended up going #12) or A.J. Puk (#6)

2015: Dansby Swanson was the lock.

2014: We all know what went down with Rodon.

 

All it takes is some classic MLB GMs overthinking / falling in love with something.

1. Orioles decide that they want to take their time, they hired Witt's family, etc. and go for the shortstop.

2. The Royals decide they want Vaughn's hit tool / save some cash for a comp round pick.

 

Fortunately, Rutschman fits the current White Sox draft modus operandi, so I don't see them passing him up if by some miracle he fell. 

[Lillian]

6 minutes ago, Chisox378 said:

Vaughn, Rutschman, or Abrams all won't pan out to be the best hitter in this draft. Vaughn in my opinion will be the best out of the 3, putting up solid MLB numbers, Josh Donaldson numbers. The key will be the second round pick. 

Rutschman as a switch hitter will hit .280-.290 max, 20HR, decent K to W. He does have value.

What would the WAR difference between Rutschman and Vaughn look like, if they ended up being the kind of players, you project? Let's say that the switch hitting Rutschman hit .285 with an OBP of .360, with 20 homers, as a plus defensive catcher and Vaughn hit like Donaldson, which would be something like a .285 AVG, with a .375 OBP and 30 homers, as a plus defensive first baseman.

[Sox Fan In Husker Land]

35 minutes ago, Lillian said:

What would the WAR difference between Rutschman and Vaughn look like, if they ended up being the kind of players, you project? Let's say that the switch hitting Rutschman hit .285 with an OBP of .360, with 20 homers, as a plus defensive catcher and Vaughn hit like Donaldson, which would be something like a .285 AVG, with a .375 OBP and 30 homers, as a plus defensive first baseman.

Last year JT Realmuto put up 4.8 fWAR in 125 games with a .277/.340/.484 line with 21 HRs. Realmuto was 24th on Fangraphs in defensive value among catchers at 8.3.

If Rutschman would put up .285/.360/.485 with superior D than Realmuto, he would be over a 5 fWAR player easily, and probably north of 6. With those stats he would be the best catcher in baseball. No catcher has eclipsed 5.0 fWAR since Buster Posey in 2016, when he went 288/362/434 with great D and put up 6.5 fWAR.

If you think Vaughn would be putting up a .290/.380/.525 line with 30 HRs,  plus D at 1st, & being a decent base runner, he could be around where Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt were in 2018 and around 5 fWAR.

 

Since 2008 here are some lines from catchers and their fWAR with similar projections to what you said for Rutschman.

2011 Miguel Montero: 282/351/469. 35 defensive value. 18 HRs in 140 games. 6.0 fWAR.

2016 Buster Posey: 288/362/434. 37.22 defensive value. 14 HRs in 146 games. 6.5 fWAR.

2013 Jonathan Lucroy: 280/340/455. 41.6 defensive value. 18 HRs in 147 games. 6.8 fWAR.

2009 Brian McCann: 281/349/486. 43.2 defensive value. 21 HRs in 138 games. 6.9 fWAR.

2013 Buster Posey: 294/371/450. 29.2 defensive value. 15 HRs in 148 games. 7.2 fWAR.

2008 Russell Martin: 280/385/396. 44.8 defensive value. 13 HRs in 155 games. 7.6 fWAR.

Edited May 10, 2019 by Sox Fan In Husker Land

[Lillian]

33 minutes ago, Sox Fan In Husker Land said:

Last year JT Realmuto put up 4.8 fWAR in 125 games with a .277/.340/.484 line with 21 HRs. Realmuto was 24th on Fangraphs in defensive value among catchers at 8.3.

If Rutschman would put up .285/.360/.485 with superior D than Realmuto, he would be over a 5 fWAR player easily, and probably north of 6.

If you think Vaughn would be putting up a .290/.380/.525 line with 30 HRs,  plus D at 1st, & being a decent base runner, he could be around where Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt were in 2018 and around 5 fWAR.

If your assessment is reasonably accurate, I would favor Rutschman because, while the WAR for the two players is similar, the value that Rutschman brings to the table, with his ability to bat left handed and play a premium position is significant. It may be hard to quantify, but it is valuable, nevertheless. Value is also a function of supply and demand. A switch hitting, good offensive and defensive catcher is rare, and therefore always in short supply. The demand is almost a constant. What team couldn't use such a player? Therefore, it's not simply that Adley plays a premium position, it's also that such players are very rare.

Edited May 10, 2019 by Lillian

[Jerksticks]

Eh, but he only impacts 120 games a year.  Doesn’t that have to turn some GMs off?