2019 MLB draft thread

[OneDog847]

9 hours ago, frogsplash31 said:

I feel like Vaughn is getting punished for past Sox draft picks. If the Sox took Kelenic last year, I guarantee more people would be for Vaughn. Not saying Abrams can be a future allstar, but, I'm not trusting the Sox to develop him. I think the Sox shouldn't overthink it and draft Vaughn, dude can flat out hit. Sucks he's a 1b/dh only, but he's an elite hitter and potential middle of the order bat.

Totally agree. The Sox took the safe college bat last year ( and previous two years) in Madrigal and the returns haven't been too hot. I'm sure that is factoring into the equation. 

I also wonder if there is some division and drama going on in the Sox braintrust right now. Based on Hostetler's past draft history, Vaughn seems like a no-brainer to the White Sox. However, we keep seeing the Sox, and more specifically KW, linked to Abrams. 

[Lillian]

Interesting to consider the difference in potential value, between Madrigal at pick #4 and Vaughn at pick #3. And to think that Vaughn is not even our consensus pick. It makes last year's selection of Madrigal look really questionable. If you remember, I wanted India. The Sox better not screw this one up, as this could be the last time they get a pick, anywhere close to this high. The more I think about last year's pick, the more frustrated I become. What was Madrigal's upside? A guy who made contact and didn't strike out, with good defence, but only at 2ND. I want a potentially big impact bat, if I'm selecting a position player, with the #3, or 4 pick. If no players with that kind of profile are there, take a pitcher.

Edited May 26, 2019 by Lillian

[fathom]

42 minutes ago, Lillian said:

Interesting to consider the difference in potential value, between Madrigal at pick #4 and Vaughn at pick #3. And to think that Vaughn is not even our consensus pick. It makes last year's selection of Madrigal look really questionable. If you remember, I wanted India. The Sox better not screw this one up, as this could be the last time they get a pick, anywhere close to this high. The more I think about last year's pick, the more frustrated I become. What was Madrigal's upside? A guy who made contact and didn't strike out, with good defence, but only at 2ND. I want a potentially big impact bat, if I'm selecting a position player, with the #3 pick. If no players with that kind of profile are there, take a pitcher.

Madrigal’s winning mentality is going to help him hit with more power supposedly.

[Lillian]

1 hour ago, fathom said:

Madrigal’s winning mentality is going to help him hit with more power supposedly.

Well, if he were in this year's Draft and I were picking, I'm not sure I'd rank him in the top 10. Either this year is a stronger top of the Draft, or the Sox screwed up.

[turnin' two]

44 minutes ago, Lillian said:

Well, if he were in this year's Draft and I were picking, I'm not sure I'd rank him in the top 10. Either this year is a stronger top of the Draft, or the Sox screwed up.

or both.

[ptatc]

Just now, turnin' two said:

or both.

or neither.

[turnin' two]

Just now, ptatc said:

or neither.

Fair enough.

[turnin' two]

7 hours ago, sox71 said:

Hostetler said in the Garfein podcast that he interviewed the six candidates and he came away with five who would fit the pick at #3 instead of 6......wonder who failed the interview. 

Hahah.  Probably Ruscthman.

[Y2Jimmy0]

4 hours ago, Lillian said:

Interesting to consider the difference in potential value, between Madrigal at pick #4 and Vaughn at pick #3. And to think that Vaughn is not even our consensus pick. It makes last year's selection of Madrigal look really questionable. If you remember, I wanted India. The Sox better not screw this one up, as this could be the last time they get a pick, anywhere close to this high. The more I think about last year's pick, the more frustrated I become. What was Madrigal's upside? A guy who made contact and didn't strike out, with good defence, but only at 2ND. I want a potentially big impact bat, if I'm selecting a position player, with the #3, or 4 pick. If no players with that kind of profile are there, take a pitcher.

Madrigal was the best college hitter in the draft. Teams had 70 grades on his hit tool and defense. Madrigal is really safe. I preferred Kelenic but completely understood going Nick Madrigal and it's waaaaay to early to make determinations on the pick at this point. 

[Y2Jimmy0]

3 hours ago, fathom said:

Madrigal’s winning mentality is going to help him hit with more power supposedly.

I'm the one that tweeted this earlier and I was para-phrasing Hostetler. It's obviously not the most important factor but the fact that Madrigal has been on winning teams his entire life is a benefit. His makeup is off the charts. Jake Burger is similar in that regard. Those dudes are going to get everything they can out of their ability because they work harder than lots of guys. I understand the concerns with Madrigal and they're warranted. The hope is that the contact skills are so good that once he gets stronger and gets to use the juiced baseballs more power unlocks. Nobody fucking said that he's going to develop power because of his winning mentality though. 

[fathom]

6 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I'm the one that tweeted this earlier and I was para-phrasing Hostetler. It's obviously not the most important factor but the fact that Madrigal has been on winning teams his entire life is a benefit. His makeup is off the charts. Jake Burger is similar in that regard. Those dudes are going to get everything they can out of their ability because they work harder than lots of guys. I understand the concerns with Madrigal and they're warranted. The hope is that the contact skills are so good that once he gets stronger and gets to use the juiced baseballs more power unlocks. Nobody fucking said that he's going to develop power because of his winning mentality though. 

I get the character strengths, but it doesn’t mean much to me if a player’s team won in college, etc.  Oregon St. was loaded as you obviously know.  You can have all the character in the world, but it doesn’t mean you can easily add 15 pounds of muscle on a frame that might not be able to support it. 

[Lillian]

I never expected Madrigal to hit for power. My concern is that he is not hitting for average and he isn't walking enough. He needs to be hitting over .300, with an OBP close to .400. That would play, even without the power. However, he is a long way from those numbers. He has the ability to put the bat on the ball, but as someone here has observed, that may be to his detriment. It would be better if he were a little more selective, and tried to work counts to get a pitch that he can hit hard. Being so small, his strike zone should be conducive to drawing walks, at his current level. Pitchers at Advanced A Ball don't have very good command. I don't want him to be trying to increase his launch angle, and hit fly balls, but it would be better if he could hit more line drives.

For a guy who had such an advanced hit tool, and was expected to be fast tracked through the Minor Leagues, he has a lot to work on. Look how far the other prospects have fallen, since moving to Birmingham, from Winston Salem. He better be hitting close to .350 in Advanced A, if he is going to be able to cut it, at AA and that's still a long way from the Major Leagues.

Edited May 26, 2019 by Lillian

[michelangelosmonkey]

5 hours ago, Lillian said:

Interesting to consider the difference in potential value, between Madrigal at pick #4 and Vaughn at pick #3. And to think that Vaughn is not even our consensus pick. It makes last year's selection of Madrigal look really questionable. If you remember, I wanted India. The Sox better not screw this one up, as this could be the last time they get a pick, anywhere close to this high. The more I think about last year's pick, the more frustrated I become. What was Madrigal's upside? A guy who made contact and didn't strike out, with good defence, but only at 2ND. I want a potentially big impact bat, if I'm selecting a position player, with the #3, or 4 pick. If no players with that kind of profile are there, take a pitcher.

Madrigal's upside is Rod Carew.  Singles hitting, good defense, fast second baseman that averaged about an 8 WAR per year over a seven year stretch.  Don't give up on him yet.  

 

[Jack Parkman]

I never expected Madrigal to hit double digit homers except in his best seasons. I do expect 40+ 2B, 5+3B and 25+ SB, which shouldn't be too much to ask a player with his skillset. 

Edited May 26, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Lillian]

23 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Madrigal's upside is Rod Carew.  Singles hitting, good defense, fast second baseman that averaged about an 8 WAR per year over a seven year stretch.  Don't give up on him yet.  

 

Rod Carew actually could hit for power. He simply chose not to, but rather to be a high average hitter. I doubt that we will see another Rod Carew, anytime soon. All of today's players seem to be "homer happy". Madrigal will likely never even sniff the the kind of production that Carew had, but I would be very satisfied if he could be a high on base %, Gold Glove second baseman. 

[Dominikk85]

8 hours ago, Lillian said:

Interesting to consider the difference in potential value, between Madrigal at pick #4 and Vaughn at pick #3. And to think that Vaughn is not even our consensus pick. It makes last year's selection of Madrigal look really questionable. If you remember, I wanted India. The Sox better not screw this one up, as this could be the last time they get a pick, anywhere close to this high. The more I think about last year's pick, the more frustrated I become. What was Madrigal's upside? A guy who made contact and didn't strike out, with good defence, but only at 2ND. I want a potentially big impact bat, if I'm selecting a position player, with the #3, or 4 pick. If no players with that kind of profile are there, take a pitcher.

Anyone was suprised how little power madrigal has shown so far. All the prospect guys saw him as a 10-12 homer guy who might grow into 20 hr power like altuve did. That would be a star player with his hit tool.

Nobody expected him to only hit one homer in his first 350 plate appearances. Hopefully he can turn it on this summer and hits 7-8 homers the rest of the way.

As a confirmation here is longenhagen talking about him as first overall pick and predicting 12-15 homers per year.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/could-a-5-foot-8-second-baseman-be-drafted-first-overall/

Nobody in the industry saw madrigal as an overdraft at 4.

[oldsox]

3 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

Anyone was suprised how little power madrigal has shown so far. All the prospect guys saw him as a 10-12 homer guy who might grow into 20 hr power like altuve did. That would be a star player with his hit tool.

Nobody expected him to only hit one homer in his first 350 plate appearances. Hopefully he can turn it on this summer and hits 7-8 homers the rest of the way.

As a confirmation here is longenhagen talking about him as first overall pick and predicting 12-15 homers per year.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/could-a-5-foot-8-second-baseman-be-drafted-first-overall/

Nobody in the industry saw madrigal as an overdraft at 4.

But he did struggle in the CWS last year.

And, please, please don't compare him to Carew.

[turnin' two]

3 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Madrigal's upside is Rod Carew.  Singles hitting, good defense, fast second baseman that averaged about an 8 WAR per year over a seven year stretch.  Don't give up on him yet.  

 

That is quite the upside.  And I would guess far less than a 1% probability.  

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

5 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

I never expected Madrigal to hit double digit homers except in his best seasons. I do expect 40+ 2B, 5+3B and 25+ SB, which shouldn't be too much to ask a player with his skillset. 

A faster DJ LeMahieu is what I've been saying since the draft. In his prime that's about 30+ doubles, 5+ 3B, 25+ SB, about 10 HR with gold glove defense and a .310+ average. Probably about a 3-4 WAR guy.

[Chicago White Sox]

8 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Madrigal was the best college hitter in the draft. Teams had 70 grades on his hit tool and defense. Madrigal is really safe. I preferred Kelenic but completely understood going Nick Madrigal and it's waaaaay to early to make determinations on the pick at this point. 

Nice post Jimmy.  People writing off Madrigal this early into his career is absolute insanity.

Edited May 27, 2019 by Chicago White Sox

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Nice post Jimmy.  People writing off Madrigal this early into his career is absolute insanity.

Surprisingly enough, I was actually supportive of the Madrigal pick, mostly because I think slap hitters with ++ hit and speed tools and gap power are the new market inefficiency. I still think Madrigal has a chance to be really good if he actually shows that he's a 70 hitter. Right now he's showing 50 to 55 and that isn't going to cut it for a player with his skillset. There is still plenty of time though. 

Edited May 27, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[michelangelosmonkey]

6 hours ago, Lillian said:

Rod Carew actually could hit for power. He simply chose not to, but rather to be a high average hitter. I doubt that we will see another Rod Carew, anytime soon. All of today's players seem to be "homer happy". Madrigal will likely never even sniff the the kind of production that Carew had, but I would be very satisfied if he could be a high on base %, Gold Glove second baseman. 

Of course he is unlikely to be Rod Carew...but you asked what his upside was.   I think Ichiro was the modern Rod Carew...great defense, great speed, great bat control, never hit for power.  Or Tony Gwynn....or Robbie Alomar.    All those guys had long stretches of 6+ WAR seasons.   I think that was the dream with Madrigal....there is a narrative on this board that if you hit for no power there is no room for you in the modern world of baseball.  And yet all of us would take a 22 year old Ichiro.          

[ptatc]

6 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Of course he is unlikely to be Rod Carew...but you asked what his upside was.   I think Ichiro was the modern Rod Carew...great defense, great speed, great bat control, never hit for power.  Or Tony Gwynn....or Robbie Alomar.    All those guys had long stretches of 6+ WAR seasons.   I think that was the dream with Madrigal....there is a narrative on this board that if you hit for no power there is no room for you in the modern world of baseball.  And yet all of us would take a 22 year old Ichiro.          

the issue is that those players had power, they just sacrificed home runs for a  higher average, OBP and fewer strikeouts.  The still hit the ball with power in the field if play.

Ichiro had some of the best power in the league. During the All star game I saw him hit the scoreboard over the concourse in right field. I is still the longest HR I have ever seen at that stadium in 18 years as a season ticket holder. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

20 hours ago, Lillian said:

Interesting to consider the difference in potential value, between Madrigal at pick #4 and Vaughn at pick #3. And to think that Vaughn is not even our consensus pick. It makes last year's selection of Madrigal look really questionable. If you remember, I wanted India. The Sox better not screw this one up, as this could be the last time they get a pick, anywhere close to this high. The more I think about last year's pick, the more frustrated I become. What was Madrigal's upside? A guy who made contact and didn't strike out, with good defence, but only at 2ND. I want a potentially big impact bat, if I'm selecting a position player, with the #3, or 4 pick. If no players with that kind of profile are there, take a pitcher.

India has arguably been worse than Madrigal so far and Madrigal was coming off a wrist injury which can take a full year+ to fully recover from.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, ptatc said:

the issue is that those players had power, they just sacrificed home runs for a  higher average, OBP and fewer strikeouts.  The still hit the ball with power in the field if play.

Ichiro had some of the best power in the league. During the All star game I saw him hit the scoreboard over the concourse in right field. I is still the longest HR I have ever seen at that stadium in 18 years as a season ticket holder. 

Ichiro hit the ball a long way in BP but Ichiro did not play with power at all so it really didn't benefit him.