2019 MLB draft thread

[Harold's Leg Lift]

These ass clowns may actually stumble fuck themselves into the best player in the draft. Unbelievable

[HoosierSox]

48 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

These ass clowns may actually stumble fuck themselves into the best player in the draft. Unbelievable

That's what everyone thought when they got Rodon at 3. That one didn't turn out to well.

[DirtySox]

FG mock 3.0

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-3-0-two-rounds/

[DirtySox]

Just now, DirtySox said:

FG mock 3.0

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-3-0-two-rounds/

Quote

3. White Sox – C.J. Abrams, SS, Blessed Trinity HS (GA)
Vaughn is still in the mix, but Abrams is the favorite here, and people around baseball think the White Sox are deploying a different draft strategy after years of early college picks. We think they’ll take a prep arm with their second pick. We have most of those targets going in the top 30, but prep righties tend to slide, and odds are that they could float one of these to 45: Quinn Priester or Matthew Allan (both very unlikely to float), Brennan Malone or Daniel Espino (maybe one of these), and J.J. Goss or Barco (some chance). In this scenario, we have an upside prep bat in Maurice Hampton getting to 45 and they also have some interest in Florida prep SS Yordys Valdes.

These second round targets are fun. I'm all about this!

 

[bmags]

Very pro.

As someone who basically only has access to player type and draft resource management I'm pro. But these wild vacillations in draft strategy each year make me wonder how successful their combining of analytics and scouting operations are.

[bmags]

With a wonderfully interesting update, here are two BA scouting reports for my soxtalk bretheren. I'm particularly intrigued by Goss.

Quote

Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 185 | B-T: R-R 
Commit/Drafted: Texas A&M 
Scouting Report: Goss entered his senior season as perhaps the best No. 2 pitcher on any high school team in the country, as righthander Matthew Thompson also plays for Houston’s Cypress Ranch High. Thompson was a first-team Preseason All-American, while Goss was voted to the second team. This spring, however, Goss has been the more impressive arm, routinely throwing in the 90-96 mph range with his fastball, a plus slider and changeup. Goss’ slider is in the low 80s with tight spin, and he has impressive feel for his mid-80s changeup with solid fading life. Prior to his senior season, Goss showed impressive strike-throwing ability and worked mostly in the upper 80s with excellent feel to spin, but a commitment to improving his body over the offseason has allowed his stuff to tick up to the point where his pure stuff is now comparable to the best high school pitchers in the class. With a 6-foot-3, 185-pound frame and plenty of athleticism—he also plays outfield for Cypress Ranch—Goss has room to add more weight as he continues to mature physically. The best of another deep crop of Texas A&M pitching recruits, Goss has played his way into Day 1 consideration, if he wasn’t there already, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Goss drafted in the first round thanks to his ability to throw strikes and the recent improvement in his pure stuff.

Hunter Barco

Quote

Notes:

Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 212 | B-T: L-L 
Commit/Drafted: Florida 
Scouting Report: Barco entered the 2019 draft cycle as one of the most anticipated prep pitchers in the class after blowing up as an underclassmen at Perfect Game’s Jupiter showcase in 2017. There, he showed three plus pitches from the left side with a projectable frame that had some scouts talking about the potential of Barco one day being a top-five pick. That sort of talk has cooled a bit since then, particularly as Barco had an up-and-down summer in 2018, when his fastball wasn’t quite as electric and his arm slot dropped down to almost fully sidearm. That created plenty of inconsistencies with his slider, allowing the pitch to back up too frequently and come across without the bite it had shown previously. However, Barco came out of the gate strong this spring for his senior season. He got his arm slot up and closer to a natural three-quarter look, and he also looked much more physically developed and muscular throughout his 6-foot-4, 212-pound frame. With improved strength, better timing in his delivery and a more efficient arm slot, Barco’s stuff has ticked up this spring. He averages around 91-92 mph with his fastball, but it routinely gets up into the 94-95 mph range and pairs with a low-80s slider that projects as a plus offering. He also has a mid-80s split-changeup that’s among the best in the class with a spin rate in the 900 to 1,110 rpm range. The one concern with Barco this spring is that his control has come and gone at times, but he has the athleticism and clean arm action to project at least average strike-throwing ability in the future. Scouts praise Barco’s professional makeup and he’s put himself into a class of his own in among the 2019 prep lefthanders, but as a Florida commit he is expected to be a tough sign. If he does make it to campus in Gainesville, Barco could make an impact as a two-way player thanks to above-average raw power with the bat, but he is certainly a pitching prospect first and foremost.

Both athletic and great size. Barco's changeup is intriguing and a 6'4 lefty. But I really like Goss's writeup.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

17 minutes ago, HoosierSox said:

That's what everyone thought when they got Rodon at 3. That one didn't turn out to well.

True but if they get enough cracks at it they may actually have one that works out!

[Harold's Leg Lift]

8 minutes ago, bmags said:

With a wonderfully interesting update, here are two BA scouting reports for my soxtalk bretheren. I'm particularly intrigued by Goss.

Hunter Barco

Both athletic and great size. Barco's changeup is intriguing and a 6'4 lefty. But I really like Goss's writeup.

If you live in the Chicago area you should really go to the Under Armour All American game at Wrigley Field. You can see all these guys for yourself and compare what you saw to these writeups.  This years game is July 22nd.

[Y2Jimmy0]

17 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

These second round targets are fun. I'm all about this!

 

They actually have them selecting Maurice Hampton in round 2 though. Hampton won't be 18 until August. He has a strong football commitment to LSU but here's his profile from pipeline. 

Hampton is one of only four players named an Under Armour All-American in baseball and football, joining Kyler Murray, A.J. Brown and fellow 2019 prep outfielder Jerrion Ealy. Named Mr. Tennessee Football at the Division II 3-A level last fall, Hampton not only is one of the Draft's top outfielders but also a four-star cornerback ticketed to play two sports at Louisiana State if he doesn't turn pro. The most athletic prospect to come out of Tennessee in years, he could become the state's first prep position player to go in the first round since Mike White in 1986.

Like most athletes who star in multiple sports, Hampton needs refinement on the diamond, but his huge upside could make the patience that will be required in his development worth it. His right-handed swing could get smoother but still generates impressive bat speed and exit velocities, giving him the potential for 25 or more homers on an annual basis if he makes enough contact. He struggled against quality pitching early on the showcase circuit last summer but continually improved and gave a glimpse of what he might be if he focused on baseball.

Hampton has dynamic tools beyond his raw power. He's also a well above-average runner who can make an impact as a basestealer and a defender. He definitely has the quickness for center field, though he needs to refine his reads and routes, and also flashes plus arm strength that will enable him to play anywhere in the outfield.

[GenericUserName]

I love that mock. Heading into Monday this is so exciting. There is a real chance Adley doesn't go 1, and even if he and Witt are gone by our pick it looks like we are going upside heavy. I think it was the FG guys a while back said something about there being more HS guys this year that might be willing to take lower amounts, so we might even be able to get a few more Bryce Bush types.

7 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

They actually have them selecting Maurice Hampton in round 2 though. Hampton won't be 18 until August. He has a strong football commitment to LSU but here's his profile from pipeline. 

Hampton is one of only four players named an Under Armour All-American in baseball and football, joining Kyler Murray, A.J. Brown and fellow 2019 prep outfielder Jerrion Ealy. Named Mr. Tennessee Football at the Division II 3-A level last fall, Hampton not only is one of the Draft's top outfielders but also a four-star cornerback ticketed to play two sports at Louisiana State if he doesn't turn pro. The most athletic prospect to come out of Tennessee in years, he could become the state's first prep position player to go in the first round since Mike White in 1986.

Like most athletes who star in multiple sports, Hampton needs refinement on the diamond, but his huge upside could make the patience that will be required in his development worth it. His right-handed swing could get smoother but still generates impressive bat speed and exit velocities, giving him the potential for 25 or more homers on an annual basis if he makes enough contact. He struggled against quality pitching early on the showcase circuit last summer but continually improved and gave a glimpse of what he might be if he focused on baseball.

Hampton has dynamic tools beyond his raw power. He's also a well above-average runner who can make an impact as a basestealer and a defender. He definitely has the quickness for center field, though he needs to refine his reads and routes, and also flashes plus arm strength that will enable him to play anywhere in the outfield.

He was someone I wanted us to target if we took Vaughn. He is currently #28 on FG and #29 on pipeline. I know people like comparing Abrams to Tim Anderson, but Hampton seems like a better comparison to Anderson, though in CF.

[SoxAce]

32 minutes ago, bmags said:

Very pro.

Absolutely. Been wanting this since the start. They desperately need to get talent in the lower minors. 

[bighurt574]

The Orioles would be fools not to take Rutschman.  I assume everything else is a smokescreen to keep his bonus demands in check.  

[GreenSox]

As prep athletes are so hard to sign after the first round, yet ideally picked after the first round (most have "lottery ticket" traits, undeveloped, not ideal for an early pick), and if one doesn't think there's a sure fire all star in the draft, the Orioles' strategy is probably best...IF they can pull it off with the prep players picked with later selections.  You really have to know what you're doing to execute that strategy.

The Sox kind of did that when they reached for Burger...but they used the savings, inexplicably,  on a college player who had little leverage.

Edited May 29, 2019 by GreenSox

[GenericUserName]

Interesting to note that the mock says the Sox have interest in Yordys Valdes who FG have at #79 and pipeline has at #82. Maybe he is our primary third round target or a backup, underslot second round option to try to get whoever falls to the third round.

[mqr]

1 hour ago, HoosierSox said:

That's what everyone thought when they got Rodon at 3. That one didn't turn out to well.

Turned out better than the guys that went in front of him

[DirtySox]

58 minutes ago, bmags said:

But these wild vacillations in draft strategy each year make me wonder how successful their combining of analytics and scouting operations are.

I too was wondering about this. Has the strategy/approach truly changed? Why? Simply because they feel the system is top heavy? Has the power dynamic on these decisions changed recently? Have they realized the current approach hasn't been paying dividends? Maybe they are just going to George Costanza it this year and do the exact opposite of their best instincts/judgement and luck into a bunch of high ceiling prep talent working out.

[DirtySox]

55 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

If you live in the Chicago area you should really go to the Under Armour All American game at Wrigley Field. You can see all these guys for yourself and compare what you saw to these writeups.  This years game is July 22nd.

Hmm. You might have decided my summer Chicago trip date.

[mqr]

32 minutes ago, bighurt574 said:

The Orioles would be fools not to take Rutschman.  I assume everything else is a smokescreen to keep his bonus demands in check.  

The Orioles have been known to be fools.

[DirtySox]

Oh for those interested in Valdes. Here's a BA scouting report.

Quote

Ht: 5-10 | Wt: 170 | B-T: B-R 
Commit/Drafted: Florida State 
Scouting Report: A pop-up shortstop in Florida, Valdez is a glove-first player with advanced actions and ability up the middle. He compares well with the best prep defenders in the 2019 class, and he has put himself in position to go on the first day of the draft as a switch-hitter who should stick at shortstop. As confident and flashy as Valdez is defensively, his bat has a long way to go. There is some contact ability, but he lacks the size and strength to drive the ball with impact on a regular basis.

 

[DirtySox]

Also, here's BA on Hampton.

Quote

Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 210 | B-T: R-R 
Commit/Drafted: Louisiana State 
Scouting Report: A two-sport star committed to Louisiana State as both an outfielder and four-star defensive back, Hampton is among the most athletic players in the 2019 draft class. He hit well during the showcase circuit last summer, barreling up plenty of high-end arms while showing that he has the necessary bat speed to handle plus velocity. However, he also displayed an agressive, free-swinging approach at the plate that could use plenty of refinement. Hampton has impressive bat-to-ball skills and good hand-eye coordination that serves him well in the batter’s box, but because of his muscle-bound frame he can get a bit stiff and will need to make a few mechanical tweaks to make sure he routinely gets into a good hitting position. He has at least average raw power and will likely develop more in the future, but there’s some question as to how much power Hampton will ever reach in games. Defensively, Hampton has the speed—he’s a plus-plus runner—to stick in center field long term, and he has the athleticism to make highlight-reel plays look almost routine. But he will need to iron out both his reads and route-running ability to reach that potential. Hampton has flashed plus arm strength, but the power of his throws has been inconsistent, and like his mechanics in the box, Hampton’s arm action can look a bit stiff at times. If Hampton does get drafted high enough to forgo his commitment to LSU, he could take huge strides forward once he refines his game and is able to focus exclusively on his growth as a baseball player. He has the talent to fit in the back of the first or supplemental first round.

 

[mqr]

5 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

I too was wondering about this. Has the strategy/approach truly changed? Why? Simply because they feel the system is top heavy? Has the power dynamic on these decisions changed recently? Have they realized the current approach hasn't been paying dividends? Maybe they are just going to George Costanza it this year and do the exact opposite of their best instincts/judgement and luck into a bunch of high ceiling prep talent working out.

I'm not sure the overall strategy has changed. I think, and acknowledge that this is purely speculation, the FO felt that they acquired the necessary top end talent to open a competitive window through trades and inter. signings and were using the draft for 'high floor' supplement to that group, and once that group mostly advanced through the minors it's time to shift back to drafting for ceiling. 

[Perfect Vision]

12 hours ago, Jerksticks said:

Anything’s possible, and I definitely think that goes on.  But it’s hard to imagine it’s easy to deke the team picking first, who can select any player in the world.  

I feel like the last few years we’ve been sending out some deceptive coverages only to always fall back into zone.  And everyone knows we play zone

It's not about deking the Orioles, it's about making Vaughn's camp think there is a real chance he could slip to 5, which has a slot value of $6,180,700.  The greater the chance they think that could happen, the more likely it is that they'd be willing to strike a deal with the Orioles for any amount over that.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

18 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

Hmm. You might have decided my summer Chicago trip date.

It's on a Monday this year.  It's usually on a Fri or Sat.  At least the Cubs are out of town.  Last year was a freakin zoo.  

[Harold's Leg Lift]

23 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

I too was wondering about this. Has the strategy/approach truly changed? Why? Simply because they feel the system is top heavy? Has the power dynamic on these decisions changed recently? Have they realized the current approach hasn't been paying dividends? Maybe they are just going to George Costanza it this year and do the exact opposite of their best instincts/judgement and luck into a bunch of high ceiling prep talent working out.

Ding! Ding!

[DirtySox]

Kiley draft chat today. Queue is open. Get some questions in!

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-5-29-19/