2019 MLB draft thread

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

Kiley draft chat today. Queue is open. Get some questions in!

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-5-29-19/

I already asked if Pilkington has a velo uptick or not. Maybe not related to the draft, but it's still a question worth asking. They may or may not put it through

 

Edited May 29, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[DirtySox]

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I already asked if Pilkington has a velo uptick or not. Maybe not related to the draft, but it's still a question worth asking. They may or may not put it through

 

Not a bad question to ask Kiley. He does prospect stuff too. So does Eric.

[Jack Parkman]

Just now, DirtySox said:

Not a bad question to ask Kiley. He does prospect stuff too. So does Eric.

I know who does what. I read fangraphs semi-religiously. I'm a math nerd and a huge baseball fan. They get my traffic because I can't afford BP. 

[ChiSoxJon]

On 5/28/2019 at 11:46 AM, bmags said:

If sox let strong play in a late season tournament sway them then god help us. But I'm sure that's just a young writer trying to keep it interesting.

Im going to put a lock on Nick Bennett, LHP, Louisville to the White Sox, let's say round 5.

Sox do have a bit of a Louisville connection

22 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Seemed like it was a high school kid from what he was implying - he talked about going to a game, and having heard bad things about his relationship with his teammates possibly. Then they saw him the entire time and not a single teammate talked to him or high fived him or anything like that. He was a hermit in his own dugout and the Sox said they will pay on him for that reason. Would love to know who they were talking about. 

Wonder who this is

21 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

My guess would be Houston LHP Seth Romero 

Thought he meant this year. Romero is in the Nats system

2 hours ago, HoosierSox said:

That's what everyone thought when they got Rodon at 3. That one didn't turn out to well.

Unfortunately injury riddled, but somehow better than Aiken and Kolek

I also felt as if we got the best arm in Fulmer in '15 and best power bat in '16 with Collins and best player in MAdrigal last year

Don't pick on me

1 hour ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

They actually have them selecting Maurice Hampton in round 2 though. Hampton won't be 18 until August. He has a strong football commitment to LSU but here's his profile from pipeline. 

Hampton is one of only four players named an Under Armour All-American in baseball and football, joining Kyler Murray, A.J. Brown and fellow 2019 prep outfielder Jerrion Ealy. Named Mr. Tennessee Football at the Division II 3-A level last fall, Hampton not only is one of the Draft's top outfielders but also a four-star cornerback ticketed to play two sports at Louisiana State if he doesn't turn pro. The most athletic prospect to come out of Tennessee in years, he could become the state's first prep position player to go in the first round since Mike White in 1986.

Like most athletes who star in multiple sports, Hampton needs refinement on the diamond, but his huge upside could make the patience that will be required in his development worth it. His right-handed swing could get smoother but still generates impressive bat speed and exit velocities, giving him the potential for 25 or more homers on an annual basis if he makes enough contact. He struggled against quality pitching early on the showcase circuit last summer but continually improved and gave a glimpse of what he might be if he focused on baseball.

Hampton has dynamic tools beyond his raw power. He's also a well above-average runner who can make an impact as a basestealer and a defender. He definitely has the quickness for center field, though he needs to refine his reads and routes, and also flashes plus arm strength that will enable him to play anywhere in the outfield.

So confident this kid will be drafted by us...Wonder if he signs AND plays at LSU or what

1 hour ago, GenericUserName said:

Interesting to note that the mock says the Sox have interest in Yordys Valdes who FG have at #79 and pipeline has at #82. Maybe he is our primary third round target or a backup, underslot second round option to try to get whoever falls to the third round.

What do we know about him?

[DirtySox]

2 minutes ago, ChiSoxJon said:

What do we know about him?

I posted his Baseball America scouting report a few posts up.

[bmags]

48 minutes ago, mqr said:

I'm not sure the overall strategy has changed. I think, and acknowledge that this is purely speculation, the FO felt that they acquired the necessary top end talent to open a competitive window through trades and inter. signings and were using the draft for 'high floor' supplement to that group, and once that group mostly advanced through the minors it's time to shift back to drafting for ceiling. 

Just want to stress that this is drafting for need. They seem to go in with a plan not based on who the players in the draft are but what the org needs.

Last year had a draft full of prep pitching and sox didn't grab one, they went after a bunch of low velo college pitchers and polished college hitters.

[DirtySox]

I'm going to laugh so hard (then cry) if we end up with say, Vaughn and Logan Wyatt with picks 1 and 2. That would be some masterful trolling after getting excited for all these tooled up prep players.

[bmags]

I think that Maurice Hampton profile looks awesome tbh. Give me bat speed and athleticism all day.

Couple other notes:

- Some of the shortstops in round 2 they are linked to sound really similar in profile to Yolbert Sanchez. Really piling on there.

- CJ Abrams is profiled in the athletic here for subscribers:

https://theathletic.com/993601/2019/05/29/a-born-hitter-georgia-prep-star-c-j-abrams-will-be-a-speedy-selection-in-mlb-draft/

[bmags]

1 minute ago, DirtySox said:

I'm going to laugh so hard (then cry) if we end up with say, Vaughn and Logan Wyatt with picks 1 and 2. That would be some masterful trolling after getting excited for all these tooled up prep players.

I will still be excited for Vaughn, but yeah, still preparing for Wyatt personall.y.

[poppysox]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

I will still be excited for Vaughn, but yeah, still preparing for Wyatt personall.y.

From what the pros seem to say it's going to be one of these two.  Hostetier has a great job since all of baseball does the research for him.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

9 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

I'm going to laugh so hard (then cry) if we end up with say, Vaughn and Logan Wyatt with picks 1 and 2. That would be some masterful trolling after getting excited for all these tooled up prep players.

I would not pass on Vaughn if he's there. To get where he is draft status wise takes an incredible amount of bat talent... to overcome to stigma of RH 1B college bats in round one being a horrible pick.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

I thought seth beer was under drafted for this same reason. He had some contact questions that didn't help his cause but he dominated the college scene for 3 years offensively. He has no glove or position really though. Beer is crushing the ball this year in AA.

Edited May 29, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[bmags]

2 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

If you live in the Chicago area you should really go to the Under Armour All American game at Wrigley Field. You can see all these guys for yourself and compare what you saw to these writeups.  This years game is July 22nd.

This sounds like fun, thanks for the tip!

[flavum]

If the Sox board isn’t Rutschman-Witt-Vaughn, I’d be disappointed. Go with the best combination of talent/highest probability of being an everyday star. The Sox history of development and Abrams lack of power at this point scares me too much. That said, if they get Abrams, welcome to the family!

[turnin' two]

26 minutes ago, bmags said:

Just want to stress that this is drafting for need. They seem to go in with a plan not based on who the players in the draft are but what the org needs.

Last year had a draft full of prep pitching and sox didn't grab one, they went after a bunch of low velo college pitchers and polished college hitters.

This still drives me crazy.  The past few years, I have a bigger problem with how the Sox handle rounds 2-6 (or so) than what they do in the first round.

[GenericUserName]

Some stuff on Valdez from an article about south florida draft prospects:

Quote

The best 2019 MLB draft prospect from a South Florida high school is Hollywood McArthur’s Yordy Valdez, and his coach is Oddibe McDowell, which is fitting.

Here’s why: There may not be a player in the history of baseball who was drafted as often and as highly as McDowell, who was selected six times in the top five rounds between 1981 and 1984. In those days, there were two drafts per year, and McDowell kept turning down the pros until the Texas Rangers made him the 12th pick of the ’84 selection process.

Now comes Valdez, a Cuban-born, switch-hitting, slick-fielding shortstop who ranks No. 75 among all prospects — college and high school — according to Baseball America.

With the draft set to start June 3, scouting reports indicate Valdez is among the best defensive players in the prep ranks. However, those reports also say he doesn’t drive the ball well.

McDowell has a bit of a different view on the offensive ability of Valdez, who has committed to Florida State.

“I like everything about his game,” McDowell said of Valdez, a fourth-year starter. “He runs well, throws well, coachable. He’s a pretty good hitter — more solid righty than lefty. It’s just a matter of getting more consistent.”

Valdez arrived in South Florida at age five. His father, Oscar, who played outfield for the Cuban national team, told the Herald his son will go to FSU unless he is drafted in the top two rounds.

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/high-school/article230900279.html

[bmags]

On 5/28/2019 at 9:47 AM, bmags said:

 

1. JJ Goss ($$$)

2. Blake Walston ($$)

2. Gunnar Henderson ($$$)

3. Kendall Williams (and then send for Gio's hs pitching coach) ($$$)

4. Brooks Lee ($$)

5. Jimmy Lewis ($)

6. Sammy Siani ($)

7. Ethan Small (would love to get him in 3rd somehow) ($)

8. Greg Jones (depending on draft) ($)

9. Isaiah Campbell ($)

10. Bryce Osmond ($$?)

I doubt the top 4 are available.

 

Just for fun, I crossed out all of the guys who wold not be available at 45 according to FG latest mock (again, just for fun).

Not listed: Maurice Hampton - now my fav player ever. Probably thought he'd be gone, only realized Jerrion Ealy as a two sport guy.

[DirtySox]

25 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I would not pass on Vaughn if he's there. To get where he is draft status wise takes an incredible amount of bat talent... to overcome to stigma of RH 1B college bats in round one being a horrible pick.

I'm with you on Vaughn. I believe he's going to mash and wouldn't be disappointed with the pick. I think most people here like him. It's just a lot of us have been swinging back and forth between Vaughn and Abrams at the moment.

[Jack Parkman]

8 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

I'm with you on Vaughn. I believe he's going to mash and wouldn't be disappointed with the pick. I think most people here like him. It's just a lot of us have been swinging back and forth between Vaughn and Abrams at the moment.

I think he's riskier than most give credit for. He has to absolutely rake to have any sort of value whatsoever. If the bat doesn't translate as well, you have another Madrigal situation where people are scratching their heads about it. If he rakes, fine it's a good pick but if he struggles any bit then it is a bad pick. Vaughn probably is the riskiest player in the top 10, because all of his value is tied to his bat. As good as Vaughn may be, you can't take a 1B/DH profile in the top 3. 

For this reason, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if Vaughn fell to 7-10 or out of the top 10 all together. 

Edited May 29, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[turnin' two]

5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I think he's riskier than most give credit for. He has to absolutely rake to have any sort of value whatsoever. If the bat doesn't translate as well, you have another Madrigal situation where people are scratching their heads about it. If he rakes, fine it's a good pick but if he struggles any bit then it is a bad pick. Vaughn probably is the riskiest player in the top 10, because all of his value is tied to his bat. 

For this reason, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if Vaughn fell to 7-10 or out of the top 10 all together. 

I don't really buy this logic.  He has to hit to have value yes.  But at 4 in the draft, Abrams would have to hit.  Or Bleday.  Of Witt.  If they draft Abrams and he doesn't hit, but is good with the glove, it is still a wasted pick.  You can get good fielding bad hitting infielders a dime a dozen (Yolmer?)  If they draft Bleday, and he doesn't mash, you have what?  A bad 4th OFer?  Waste of a pick.  All of these guys need to hit to be worth it.  Getting a utility IF or backup OFer with this pick is just as much of a disaster as Vaughn being a AAA player.  They all need to hit.

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

I don't really buy this logic.  He has to hit to have value yes.  But at 4 in the draft, Abrams would have to hit.  Or Bleday.  Of Witt.  If they draft Abrams and he doesn't hit, but is good with the glove, it is still a wasted pick.  You can get good fielding bad hitting infielders a dime a dozen (Yolmer?)  If they draft Bleday, and he doesn't mash, you have what?  A bad 4th OFer?  Waste of a pick.  All of these guys need to hit to be worth it.  Getting a utility IF or backup OFer with this pick is just as much of a disaster as Vaughn being a AAA player.  They all need to hit.

Well yes, sure but Vaughn has to be Pujols or Kris Bryant or something like that. It puts a ton of pressure on his bat. 

The other guys can get away with being a .270, 20 HR player and still have value. Vaughn can't. 

Edited May 29, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

I don't really buy this logic.  He has to hit to have value yes.  But at 4 in the draft, Abrams would have to hit.  Or Bleday.  Of Witt.  If they draft Abrams and he doesn't hit, but is good with the glove, it is still a wasted pick.  You can get good fielding bad hitting infielders a dime a dozen (Yolmer?)  If they draft Bleday, and he doesn't mash, you have what?  A bad 4th OFer?  Waste of a pick.  All of these guys need to hit to be worth it.  Getting a utility IF or backup OFer with this pick is just as much of a disaster as Vaughn being a AAA player.  They all need to hit.

It's a matter of degrees.

If Abrams hits 90 wrc+, he's still a major leaguer, possibly still even a plus regular.

If Vaughn hits 90 wrc+, he maybe makes the show but is basically useless.

If Abrams hits 110 wrc+, he could be an all star.

if Vaugh hits 110 wrc+, he's a replaceable starter.

Now, it's true that Vaughn is more likely to have a 110 wrc+ than Vaughn, but to little value. And he's certainly more likely to have a 130 or more, but the degree matters a lot because he basically has to be a star with the bat, but he's also the most likely to be a star with the bat.

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

It's a matter of degrees.

If Abrams hits 90 wrc+, he's still a major leaguer, possibly still even a plus regular.

If Vaughn hits 90 wrc+, he maybe makes the show but is basically useless.

If Abrams hits 110 wrc+, he could be an all star.

if Vaugh hits 110 wrc+, he's a replaceable starter.

Now, it's true that Vaughn is more likely to have a 110 wrc+ than Vaughn, but to little value. And he's certainly more likely to have a 130 or more, but the degree matters a lot because he basically has to be a star with the bat, but he's also the most likely to be a star with the bat.

^^^

Nice post. Stole the thoughts from my brain. 

[mqr]

Kiley a 75% chance Abrams’ goes to the sox. So I think the odds of Vaughn are preeeeeetty slim

Edited May 29, 2019 by mqr

[Harold's Leg Lift]

The Twins signed CJ Cron off the scrap heap and he's hitting .271/.337/.536.  He cost nothing to acquire.  How much better does Vaughn have to hit to justify the pick at 1-3.  Even the most inept FO should easily be able to find a 1B who can be league avg.