2019 MLB draft thread

[Jerksticks]

I want Vaughn.  I don’t want the Tigers drafting Vaughn and seeing him mash against us for 6 years.  

 

It’s stupid that Vaughn is a reach at #3 because he’s a 1B but a totally fine selection at 5-7. 

Hitting the shit out of the baseball is the most important tool. 

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

I want Vaughn.  I don’t want the Tigers drafting Vaughn and seeing him mash against us for 6 years.  

 

It’s stupid that Vaughn is a reach at #3 because he’s a 1B but a totally fine selection at 5-7. 

Hitting the shit out of the baseball is the most important tool. 

IMO, he's a reach at 6 or above. 7 is about where I'd start to consider him but I wouldn't take him higher than 9 or 10.  At that point the reward starts to outweigh the risk

Edited May 29, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[mqr]

5 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

I want Vaughn.  I don’t want the Tigers drafting Vaughn and seeing him mash against us for 6 years.  

 

It’s stupid that Vaughn is a reach at #3 because he’s a 1B but a totally fine selection at 5-7. 

Hitting the shit out of the baseball is the most important tool. 

The fall off in expected value between top 5 and everything else is pretty steep. 

[OneDog847]

3 hours ago, GenericUserName said:

I love that mock. Heading into Monday this is so exciting. There is a real chance Adley doesn't go 1, and even if he and Witt are gone by our pick it looks like we are going upside heavy. I think it was the FG guys a while back said something about there being more HS guys this year that might be willing to take lower amounts, so we might even be able to get a few more Bryce Bush types.

He was someone I wanted us to target if we took Vaughn. He is currently #28 on FG and #29 on pipeline. I know people like comparing Abrams to Tim Anderson, but Hampton seems like a better comparison to Anderson, though in CF.

 

2 hours ago, DirtySox said:

Also, here's BA on Hampton.

 

We will most definitely know that KW is back in charge of the White Sox drafting if the Sox select Abrams and this Hampton kid. 

Kenny loves those football players.. 

[DirtySox]

Some relevant stuff from Kiley's chat so far.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-5-29-19/

Quote

Tyler

1:18

How likely do you think it is, as a percentage, that the White Sox will take Abrams?

Kiley McDaniel

1:18

75%

Quote

Roddy

1:27

Does CJ Abrams compare at all to Francisco Lindor at the time he was drafted?

Kiley McDaniel

1:28

Sort of? The raw tools are comparable, Abrams may be a bit better but he's also about a year older than Lindor was on draft day. Lindor had clearly superior defensive actions and polish, probably would say instincts as well.

Quote

BBCNEW

1:28

Nick Hostetler said the Sox met with 6 potential choices at #3. Found 5 of them to be "fits". How important are home visits to teams?

Kiley McDaniel

1:28

Some teams really value them, some teams do it more as a formality or to see if there's a red flag

Quote

Bob

1:34

Will someone take a chance on Tommy Henry in the second round?

Kiley McDaniel

1:34

I think so

Quote

McKiley

1:34

Would Tigers take Abrams if he falls?

Kiley McDaniel

1:34

Don't think so

Quote

WSox

1:44

Is Maurice Hampton a signability concern with is FBall commitment to LSU?

Kiley McDaniel

1:45

Everyone I've talked with thinks he signs

Quote

Love

1:48

You mention the White Sox floating some premium talent to their second round pick. Do you anticipate significant savings with an Abrams selection? What is the likelihood of those targets even getting to 45?

Kiley McDaniel

1:48

Abrams likely goes 6th if the White Sox don't take him, so the thinking is they could offer him between 5th and 6th slot, combine that savings with their overage and have about $2M to spend later

1:49

Or, between $1.5M and $2.0M

Lots of good non White Sox stuff in there too.

Edited May 29, 2019 by DirtySox

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

57 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I think he's riskier than most give credit for. He has to absolutely rake to have any sort of value whatsoever. If the bat doesn't translate as well, you have another Madrigal situation where people are scratching their heads about it. If he rakes, fine it's a good pick but if he struggles any bit then it is a bad pick. Vaughn probably is the riskiest player in the top 10, because all of his value is tied to his bat. As good as Vaughn may be, you can't take a 1B/DH profile in the top 3. 

For this reason, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if Vaughn fell to 7-10 or out of the top 10 all together. 

Yes Jack, if he doesn't perform it's a bad pick but if he does it's a good one.

He's the safest pick in the draft; there is risk tied to every draft pick in baseball, but Vaughn is about as safe as it gets. 

I understand your argument - 2 tool guys have more risk than 5 tool guys in turns of being complete busts - but you just don't get where Vaughn is without being about as can't miss of a hitter as you'll find. Vaughn could roll out of bed tomorrow and hit 25-30 hr's and 250 in the big leagues tomorrow. His ceiling is the best hitter in baseball. You just shouldn't pass on that. 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

18 minutes ago, OneDog847 said:

 

We will most definitely know that KW is back in charge of the White Sox drafting if the Sox select Abrams and this Hampton kid. 

Kenny loves those football players.. 

So does every single talent evaluator in baseball......

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

I think he's riskier than most give credit for. He has to absolutely rake to have any sort of value whatsoever. If the bat doesn't translate as well, you have another Madrigal situation where people are scratching their heads about it. If he rakes, fine it's a good pick but if he struggles any bit then it is a bad pick. Vaughn probably is the riskiest player in the top 10, because all of his value is tied to his bat. As good as Vaughn may be, you can't take a 1B/DH profile in the top 3. 

For this reason, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if Vaughn fell to 7-10 or out of the top 10 all together. 

This is exactly why you should be taking Vaughn; the fact that he is this high despite stigma's like yours shows how good his bat is. I like to draft elite tools - they are safer than unrefined tools. He may lack elsewhere, but those two tools he has are so loud it's crazy

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

42 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

The Twins signed CJ Cron off the scrap heap and he's hitting .271/.337/.536.  He cost nothing to acquire.  How much better does Vaughn have to hit to justify the pick at 1-3.  Even the most inept FO should easily be able to find a 1B who can be league avg.  

Not sure what this means; JD Martinez was signed for free. He's the best hitter in baseball possible. Does that mean you shouldn't invest in strong hitting outfielders? 

Comparing CJ Cron to Andrew Vaughn is like comparing Adam Eaton to Bryce Harper. 

[OneDog847]

10 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yes Jack, if he doesn't perform it's a bad pick but if he does it's a good one.

He's the safest pick in the draft; there is risk tied to every draft pick in baseball, but Vaughn is about as safe as it gets. 

I understand your argument - 2 tool guys have more risk than 5 tool guys in turns of being complete busts - but you just don't get where Vaughn is without being about as can't miss of a hitter as you'll find. Vaughn could roll out of bed tomorrow and hit 25-30 hr's and 250 in the big leagues tomorrow. His ceiling is the best hitter in baseball. You just shouldn't pass on that. 

Din't we hear this same line last year with Madrigal? 

[SoxAce]

I look at Vaughn as this years Seth Beer (rich man's version) who ironically was talked about being the #1 pick when he was a freshman before his sub par sophomore season and then when people realized he was a terrible defensive player as a junior. 

But hey, that is what a DH is for in the AL. Unfortunately the Sox have alot of those 1B/DH types in the system already.

Edited May 29, 2019 by SoxAce

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

15 minutes ago, OneDog847 said:

Din't we hear this same line last year with Madrigal? 

This obsession with Madrigal at this point is a bit much. He's played less than one full season of professional baseball and was coming off a debilitating injury. 

He's not a finished product. No one who is 5'6 is ever a SAFE pick. The Sox took a chance there, but Madrigal does some things really well. 

 

Edited May 29, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

7 minutes ago, SoxAce said:

I look at Vaughn as this years Seth Beer (rich man's version) who ironically was talked about being the #1 pick when he was a freshman before his sub par sophomore season and then when people realized he was a terrible defensive player as a junior. 

But hey, that is what a DH is for in the AL. Unfortunately the Sox have alot of those 1B/DH types in the system already.

By all accounts, Vaughn will stay at first and is far supreme to Beer in that regard... also, Vaughn had less swing and miss in his game, and has shown more consistency. Beer, by my personal opinion, was under drafted though because of prospect fatigue and because people fall in love with possibility more than production.

Vaughn would be the #1 pick in the draft if he was left handed or if he was 6'4. The fact that he is neither of those things actually has next to zero impact on his likely outcomes so they really shouldn't determine where he's drafting. 

[ChiSox59]

For someone that follows the draft more than I, why would Abrams fall to 6th if the Sox don't take him?  Why would Miami or Detroit pass on him? 

[DirtySox]

2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

For someone that follows the draft more than I, why would Abrams fall to 6th if the Sox don't take him?  Why would Miami or Detroit pass on him? 

Because they like other guys better.

[SoxAce]

26 minutes ago, OneDog847 said:

Din't we hear this same line last year with Madrigal? 

Eh.. unfortunately for him he's in a pretty shitty developmental organization here which he's pretty much dealing with things that he's trying to figure out now (massive shifts, launch angle, etc). He gets a bit too much hate from some here. I wish he was hitting .330 too, but his defense is still outstanding, his speed is still very good and he is still impossible to strikeout. I still don't think he's 100% from that wrist injury either, but that's another discussion. 

Edited May 29, 2019 by SoxAce

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

For someone that follows the draft more than I, why would Abrams fall to 6th if the Sox don't take him?  Why would Miami or Detroit pass on him? 

Baseball scouting is so inexact that it's not abnormal for one team (or a collection) to like a guy in the top 5 while another team may not like him in the 1st round at all. 

[ChiSox59]

5 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

Because they like other guys better.

I had that part figured out.  Who are Miami and Detroit targeting? 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, SoxAce said:

Eh.. unfortunately for him he's in a pretty shitty developmental organization here which he's pretty much dealing with things that he's trying to figure out now (massive shifts, launch angle, etc). He gets a bit too much hate for some here. I wish he was hitting .330 too, but his defense is still outstanding, his speed is still very good and he is still impossible to strikeout. 

Madrigal is responsible for his development. Excusing him by blaming someone else is a lazy way out. Madrigal wasn't/isn't supposed to require a significant amount of development. I'm still convinced he'll figure it out. 

[DirtySox]

6 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I had that part figured out.  Who are Miami and Detroit targeting? 

Sounds like Detroit would snatch up Vaughn or Greene, and Miami is on the Bleday train.

Edited May 29, 2019 by DirtySox

[Harold's Leg Lift]

Most likely JJ Bleday or Riley Greene.  Perhaps Hunter Bishop.

[SoxAce]

Just now, DirtySox said:

Sounds like Detroit would snatch up Vaughn, and Miami is on the Bleday train.

They love him. 

[OneDog847]

39 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

So does every single talent evaluator in baseball......

How many football players have the Cubs and Astros drafted recently? 

[Balta1701]

I'm gonna take a different tack with this one - this is the time the White Sox should draft for need.

By almost all accounts, Abrams and Vaughn grade similarly, with Abrams playing a more useful position but Vaughn being several years ahead of him. Right now, once a couple guys graduate, the White Sox's system looks barren, and they have a whole lot of holes on the big league roster. RF, 2b, 1b, DH, 1-2 starting pitching slots, entire bullpen, bench. They've already proven they will not spend with the big teams to fill any of these roles and aside from the 2 guys they will not trade they have little of value on the trade market, which means that we're going to be looking at mid-level FA guys next year to fill most of these roles. 

Given that 1b/DH is a current need, even if Abreu is brought back, and how this franchise has conducted itself, there should be a priority on finding another piece who can contribute ASAP. This can and should be done at the expense of guys who might be really good in 3-4 years.

If you grade these guys similarly, a guy who could replace Anderson in 3-4 years is far less valuable to this franchise than a guy who plays 1b and puts up an Abreu-like 110 wRC+ in 2020 and 2021. 

[bmags]

I have a feeling that when both are in A+, we will have severe FOMO over Riley Greene, by time they are in AAA we will be thrilled having Abrams.