2019 MLB draft thread

[Lillian]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The question is... would you draft Frank Thomas with the 1st pick in the draft. The obvious answer is yes. 

Given that Vaughns ceiling is the best hitter in the world, I'd say the Frank Thomas ceiling and possibility is a valid comparison.

You are absolutely right. If he is going to hit like Frank Thomas, I'd take him #1, in almost any year's draft. However, I wonder what the probability is that he hits anywhere close to the Big Hurt's HOF career.

[turnin' two]

26 minutes ago, Lillian said:

Very interesting, indeed. This author validates my rejection of the assertion that being only 6' tall is a negative. However, height may still be a consideration, regarding defence. Being a bigger target, with a longer reach, at first, is advantageous. I wonder how good of a hitter Vaughn has to be in the Major Leagues, to justify his being picked 3RD. For me, unless he exceeds .300, .350, .500, with over 30 HR's. I'd prefer a guy who hits left handed and, or can also play a premium position. However, you can see how a team could be willing to settle for just reaching those bench marks, especially if they think the probability of reaching them is high enough. After all, those numbers aren't exactly "chopped liver". On the other hand, 30 home runs doesn't seem like much of a hurdle, these days, with the maple bats and live ball. Lot's and lot's of guys are going to have 30+ homers, this year. Last night, Abreu hit what should have been his 15TH, if he hadn't passed Tim, rounding first base, and that's in just 1/3 of the season.

There were 25 guys that hit 30 HRS last season.  Obviously fewer than 1 per team.  There were only 4 that did it while hitting .300 or higher; JD, Trout, Yelich and Betts.  If the Sox think he is a 30/300 guy, it would be insane to pass on that.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

12 minutes ago, mqr said:

Would you take Francisco Lindor with the first pick in the draft? This is a pretty pointless line of logic. 

I'm perfectly fine with drafting either guy. 

I would take Frank Thomas over Francisco Lindor... also, this is a reach comparison imo.

Abrams is raw, unpolished and has an immense amount of development to do to reach that level. Its certainly possible.

Some people would argue that Vaughn is already one of the best hitters on the planet and will only develop further. If Vaughn didnt get any better, he projects around 248/365/510 right now as a big leaguer. Getting Vaughn to develop further into a top 5 hitter is much more likely based on his current production than getting a high school SS and developing him into a top 5 SS.

It's not dumb or outrageous to compare Vaughn to HOF talent first baseman because by all accounts, through this age, he ranks better than the vast majority of them.

Edited May 30, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Jose Abreu]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

If Vaughn didnt get any better, he projects around 248/365/510 right now as a big leaguer.

I don't necessarily think these figures are outlandish, but where are you getting them from?

[Flash]

I'm probably wrong but I don't rule out Vaughn being able to play 3B if necessary. He has a classic 3B build and strong arm. Moreover, suggesting we can move Eloy, Collins, Burger , etc. oversimplifies the skills and undervalues the importance of having a solid glove at first. Just watch Rizzo, Hosmer, Votto and Freemen and see how many throwing errors they prevent (as opposed to Abreu). With our young IF'rs I'd hate to see someone like Eloy trying to scoop up in-between hops.

[turnin' two]

7 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Some people would argue that Vaughn is already one of the best hitters on the planet and will only develop further. If Vaughn didnt get any better, he projects around 248/365/510 right now as a big leaguer.

Not sure where you got the numbers, but I was actually just thinking, if his hit tool fades a bit, Khris Davis may be a solid comp, and Davis is .248/.320/.518 for his career.  

[Perfect Vision]

23 minutes ago, ptatc said:

What makes you say this? He currently has 8 HR  and .552 SLG which would be near 40 for a full season. He also has a ,375 OBP which is one of his lowest in the minors.

I don't expect that in the MLB but 30 HR and a .350 OBP seems attainable.

I think Collins will be a .220/.320/.430 type hitter in the majors, with 20-25 homeruns, but also top 10 in the league in strikeouts on an annual basis.  That he's only hit .233 over 300 minor league games (even with the great walk rate), doesn't make me think he'll ever hit better than .220 or so in MLB, and possibly much worse.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I don't necessarily think these figures are outlandish, but where are you getting them from?

Standard normalization of college stats based on key rates - similarly to what ZIPS would do. 

The article actually discusses how Vaughn has been a nightmare for analytics people because he falls outside of the SD for every college hitter in the system... so when you project his outcomes by using a standard college/mlb statistical regression you get the numbers above... (I'm sure they vary based on analysis) and if you heavily weight BB% (which in Vaughns case you should because he's so high on the spectrum that his college walk numbers actually do help us project his MLB outcomes) You actually bump those numbers up to:

254/378/514

Most people working the analytical baseball world will have a hard time accepting that slash line for someone who has never left college. Hence why teams are searching for reasons to discredit the number and opposed to accepting it. 

Vaughn is a fucking animal.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

7 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Not sure where you got the numbers, but I was actually just thinking, if his hit tool fades a bit, Khris Davis may be a solid comp, and Davis is .248/.320/.518 for his career.  

His hit tool grades higher than every power hitting prospect not named Vlad Jr.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

8 minutes ago, Flash said:

I'm probably wrong but I don't rule out Vaughn being able to play 3B if necessary. He has a classic 3B build and strong arm. Moreover, suggesting we can move Eloy, Collins, Burger , etc. oversimplifies the skills and undervalues the importance of having a solid glove at first. Just watch Rizzo, Hosmer, Votto and Freemen and see how many throwing errors they prevent (as opposed to Abreu). With our young IF'rs I'd hate to see someone like Eloy trying to scoop up in-between hops.

Vaughn will not be able to move from first base. 

[MyNamesRod]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Standard normalization of college stats based on key rates - similarly to what ZIPS would do. 

The article actually discusses how Vaughn has been a nightmare for analytics people because he falls outside of the SD for every college hitter in the system... so when you project his outcomes by using a standard college/mlb statistical regression you get the numbers above... (I'm sure they vary based on analysis) and if you heavily weight BB% (which in Vaughns case you should because he's so high on the spectrum that his college walk numbers actually do help us project his MLB outcomes) You actually bump those numbers up to:

254/378/514

Most people working the analytical baseball world will have a hard time accepting that slash line for someone who has never left college. Hence why teams are searching for reasons to discredit the number and opposed to accepting it. 

Vaughn is a fucking animal.

Keep talking like that and you’re gonna make me switch back to wanting Vaughn instead of Abrams ?

[Flash]

Poor Mans Rutschman...might still be around 3rd/4th round  - Missouri State's Drew Millas is extremely athletic for his position, flashing above-average run times and moving around behind the plate like an infielder. He has soft hands and excels at blocking and receiving. He also has a strong and accurate arm, the leadership skills desired in a catcher and calls his own game -- a rarity in college.

Millas offers some raw power, but he has gotten too wrapped up in trying to lift and drive the ball during a rough junior season offensively. He's a switch-hitter who's significantly better from the left side, and some evaluators wonder if he'd be better off giving up batting right-handed.

[Flash]

6 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Vaughn will not be able to move from first base. 

Read several teams have worked him out at 3rd including Baltimore. Will look for article.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, MyNamesRod said:

Keep talking like that and you’re gonna make me switch back to wanting Vaughn instead of Abrams ?

The guy has 85 XBH's in 156 college games. ?

People didn't think that would happen with the new bats.

Adley has been an AMAZING college player and hitter.. and he has 70 in 180 games. 

[Perfect Vision]

Let's say the Sox draft Abrams and both he and Vaughn develop more or less as expected.  Will people favoring Abrams still be happy with the pick if, 2 years from now, Vaughn is hitting something like .270/.350/.475 for the Tigers, while Abrams is hitting something like .285/.340/.400 at A+ with quality defense and stolen bases?  Some probably would still be happy with the Abrams pick, but I wouldn't be in that scenario.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, Flash said:

Read several teams have worked him out at 3rd including Baltimore. Will look for article.

Yes, but it won't work. Vaughn makes Hoskins look like Rickey Henderson defensively when it comes to athleticism. Vaughn just isn't a great athlete despite having an incredible and athletic swing.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, Perfect Vision said:

Let's say the Sox draft Abrams and both he and Vaughn develop more or less as expected.  Will people favoring Abrams still be happy with the pick if, 2 years from now, Vaughn is hitting something like .270/.350/.475 for the Tigers, while Abrams is hitting something like .285/.340/.400 at A+ with quality defense and stolen bases?  Some probably would still be happy with the Abrams pick, but I wouldn't be in that scenario.

If Vaughn develops as expected, he's slashing 300/420/550+.

[Flash]

2 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

Let's say the Sox draft Abrams and both he and Vaughn develop more or less as expected.  Will people favoring Abrams still be happy with the pick if, 2 years from now, Vaughn is hitting something like .270/.350/.475 for the Tigers, while Abrams is hitting something like .285/.340/.400 at A+ with quality defense and stolen bases?  Some probably would still be happy with the Abrams pick, but I wouldn't be in that scenario.

Vaughn will ascend to bigs quickly...maybe 2020/1. Imagine a lineup with Roberts, Moncada, Vaughn, Eloy, Anderson....??? 

[Perfect Vision]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

If Vaughn develops as expected, he's slashing 300/420/550+.

I don't think it's reasonable to expect anyone to have a .400+ OBP at the major league level, even current MLB all stars.  Some do, and Vaughn eventually could, but it shouldn't be expected.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

I don't think it's reasonable to expect anyone to have a .400+ OBP at the major league level, even current MLB all stars.  Some do, and Vaughn eventually could, but it shouldn't be expected.

There are 20 hitters in MLB right now that are right around 400 or more. 

I understand your reluctance but this is also the problem scouts are having... that's where Vaughn projects and it's up to the person on whether they want to accept that or not.

[OneDog847]

8 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The guy has 85 XBH's in 156 college games. ?

People didn't think that would happen with the new bats.

Adley has been an AMAZING college player and hitter.. and he has 70 in 180 games. 

 

7 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

Let's say the Sox draft Abrams and both he and Vaughn develop more or less as expected.  Will people favoring Abrams still be happy with the pick if, 2 years from now, Vaughn is hitting something like .270/.350/.475 for the Tigers, while Abrams is hitting something like .285/.340/.400 at A+ with quality defense and stolen bases?  Some probably would still be happy with the Abrams pick, but I wouldn't be in that scenario.

Vaughn's college numbers are almost as good as The Big Hurt's and Kris Bryant. The dude has a can't miss bat. 

I could see the Sox trading Abrams down the line if he puts up those type of numbers in A+. He could be a nice starting piece in a trade for a TOR arm. 

 

[Jerksticks]

I don’t care if the tigers take abrams.  But I sure as hell care if the tigers get Vaughn 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, OneDog847 said:

 

Vaughn's college numbers are almost as good as The Big Hurt's and Kris Bryant. The dude has a can't miss bat. 

I could see the Sox trading Abrams down the line if he puts up those type of numbers in A+. He could be a nice starting piece in a trade for a TOR arm. 

 

Vaughn a better hit tool than Bryant and Vaughn's numbers are actually better considering that he played in the Pac-12 and Bryant played in the WCC. 

You cant really use Frank's college numbers as a comparison because Frank got to use the old bats. If  Vaughn was using the old bats he'd have like a 1600 ops.

[ptatc]

27 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

I think Collins will be a .220/.320/.430 type hitter in the majors, with 20-25 homeruns, but also top 10 in the league in strikeouts on an annual basis.  That he's only hit .233 over 300 minor league games (even with the great walk rate), doesn't make me think he'll ever hit better than .220 or so in MLB, and possibly much worse.

.220 isn't a problem if he has an OBP of 350 and a 500 SLG.  

you could be right but I dont think he's in the "almost certainly " won't hit category. His entire minor league career shows he has a chance to be a very valuable hitter.

[DirtySox]

All of this Vaughn/Abrams talk will be moot when Adley falls to the White Sox.