Midterms 2018

[Heads22]

Dems need to keep making it about healthcare and be careful about the social issues they target in some places. Focus on what will win votes (healthcare, pocketbooks, etc.). Here in Iowa, I think you could find a majority in favor of gay marriage, etc., but that's not gonna drive votes for anyone that's not already gonna vote for you. 

[Reddy]

 

Dems need to keep making it about healthcare and be careful about the social issues they target in some places. Focus on what will win votes (healthcare, pocketbooks, etc.). Here in Iowa, I think you could find a majority in favor of gay marriage, etc., but that's not gonna drive votes for anyone that's not already gonna vote for you. 

Yeah it's not much of a campaign issue anymore at this point, with 70+% of people supporting it.

And yeah, it's all healthcare and medicare/social security right now. Results from tonight's primaries continue to show the wave is alive and well.

[caulfield12]

In the four Virginia competitive US House races in November, female candidates have all won the Democratic nominations, the latest example of the party turning to women to unseat vulnerable Republicans in the President Donald Trump era.

 

On Tuesday, three women -- Elaine Luria, Abigail Spanberger and Jennifer Wexton -- won Democratic primaries. Earlier this year at the party convention, journalist Leslie Cockburn won the nomination in Virginia's 5th Congressional District.

There are currently no Democratic women in Virginia's 11-seat congressional delegation.

 

...

 

"Women have been leading the resistance, leading in activism and come November they will lead the way in Democrats taking back the House," said Christina Reynolds, top strategist for Emily's List, a Democratic organization that recruits and funds Democratic women to run for office who support abortion rights. "Virginia is a key part of that effort and EMILY's List is proud to stand with the women running in these targeted races."

 

A record number of Democratic women have filed to run for Congress since Trump stepped into the White House, with many telling CNN they chose to run in response to his presidency.

 

To date, 476 women have filed to run for the House in 2018, according to the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University, surpassing the 272 who filed in 2016.

 

After last week's primaries in California, Alabama, Iowa and other states, 114 women have won their primary elections. And 45 are on Tuesday's ballots.

 

source: cnn.com

[Reddy]

"the latest example of the party turning to women to unseat vulnerable Republicans in the President Donald Trump era."

Weird comment, since it's the voters who've turned to women candidates, not specifically the party. The party is just riding that wave.

[caulfield12]

Activist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is challenging Joe Crowley, who's in House Democratic leadership, in this New York City district.  

 

(It would be crazy if she holds this lead....just 28 years old, outraised 10-1 by her opponent, Crowley hasn’t been challenged once in 14 years by his own party, #4 in Dem House leadership and big-time fundraiser)

 

Over 68% of vote is in...still up by 2300 votes.

 

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	6,487	58.1%
Joe Crowley*	4,679	41.9%

Edited June 27, 2018 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has already made history with her campaign to challenge Democratic Rep. Joe Crowley for his seat in congress: the 28-year-old Bronx-born woman is the first person to face off against Crowley in a primary election throughout his entire 14 year tenure in office. She has shocked skeptics by even getting on the ballot for the June 26 primary election, which will determine the Democratic nominee for New York's 14th Congressional District. The contest heated up last week when the New York Times editorial board called out Crowley for skipping two debates with Ocasio-Cortez. Crowley's seat, representing part of Queens and the Bronx, the board wrote, "is not his entitlement. He’d better hope that voters don’t react to his snubs by sending someone else to do the job." Which is exactly what might happen tomorrow, if Ocasio-Cortez—who just nine months ago was running her campaign while still working as a server in a restaurant— wins the nomination.

Ocasio-Cortez is part of a number of young women of color who are challenging establishment incumbents in the Democratic party. A third-generation New Yorker whose family is originally from Puerto Rico, Ocasio-Cortez looks a lot more like the constituents in the very diverse 14th district than Crowley, a 56-year-old white man. The optics of the race, then, also reflect a battle for the future of party leadership: Who is better equipped to represent the largely working class and non-white Americans in the 14th, and in places like it all over the country?

But Ocasio-Cortez's challenge goes far beyond surface level; Ocasio-Cortez is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, a leftist organization that has helped buoy the campaigns of dozens of outsider candidates running on very progressive platforms in places where Democrats like Crowley are used to winning—handily. Some of Ocasio-Cortez's positions include fighting for Medicare for All and a Federal Jobs Guarantee, abolishing ICE, and insisting on much more severe policing of luxury real estate development (part of the reason she has refused corporate donations). Her push on economic justice has exposed ways that Crowley, as a powerful Democrat who sits on the Committee on Ways and Means, pays lip service to the post-Trump resistance while maintaining largely centrist politics. Newcomers like Ocasio-Cortez and Cynthia Nixon, who is hoping to unseat Governor Andrew Cuomo (Nixon and Ocasio-Cortez have endorsed each other), have already helped spur a leftward shift in some of the stances of their opponents.

Ocasio-Cortez spoke to Vogue on the phone last week before heading to a child detention center in Tornillo, Texas. Trump's family separation policy has been a flashpoint not just along partisan lines, but also between Democrats: those who denounce ICE's action but refuse to call for its dismantling, like Crowley, and those who believe it should not exist. It's an issue that has also created a debate around "civility," as pundits squabble over whether or not Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen, for example, should have been heckled out of a Mexican restaurant last week. As the people's millennial challenger, Ocasio-Cortez weighed in on what needs to change in New York, in elections, and in how we talk about holding those in power accountable:

[caulfield12]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/live-updates/midterms/live-primary-election-results/rep-joe-crowley-defeated-by-challenger-alexandria-ocasio-cortez/?utm_term=.8193299cc817

Down goes Crowley!

The mistake of this race was dodging a debate, then sending a Hispanic staff member (female, even similar look) to debate Ocasio-Cortez.  Voters don’t especially like being patronized by an old white male in a majority/minority district.

 

The second really brilliant Dem ad I watched today...she wrote it all herself, that’s what makes it so genuine and authentic.

Edited June 27, 2018 by caulfield12

[StrangeSox]

our voting systems are...not great

 

 

 

[StrangeSox]

Rauner vetos bill that would have removed Illinois from Kris Kobach's "voter crosscheck" system that produces numerous false positives and purges legitimate voters from the rolls

 

 

 

[StrangeSox]

Russian hacking, coming to a midterm near you!

 

I'm very confused though our big boy president told us that Russia was actually in favor of the Dems??

Edited July 26, 2018 by StrangeSox

[StrangeSox]

also this midwest Gov poll, wow

 

 

 

[Heads22]

I'll believe Scott Walker's gone when I see it with my own eyes. And maybe not even then.

If that holds true here in Iowa, you're probably looking at 3/4 dem house seats and a dem governor.

[The Beast]

https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20180726/roskam-casten-sling-allegations-of-misrepresentation-in-6th-dist-debate

Is anyone from the sixth congressional district? Sean Casten and Peter Roskam debated tonight and are in one of the contested races that democrats could win. Roskam has a large amount of money at his disposal but it would be great if Casten could pull it off and help Democrats make gains in the midterms.

[StrangeSox]

This seems like a bad idea

 

 

[caulfield12]

Nailbiter in Ohio...about 200 votes separating O'Connor and Balderson with 91% of the vote in.

Just like the Lamb and Jones elections, going down to the wire.  Trump won that district by 10-11% I think.

 

Ooops, now trailing by 700 with only 5% of the precincts left to report.

 

 

Edited August 8, 2018 by caulfield12

[Reddy]

How'd tonight go for the "AOC plays GREAT in the Midwest" crowd?

[caulfield12]

“Republicans have won while clinging tighter and tighter to their base and convincing us to stray from ours.  t’s time for us to remember that universal college education, trade school, a federal jobs guarantee, a universal basic income, were not all proposed in 2016. They were proposed in 1940, by the Democratic president of the United States," said Ms. Ocasio-Cortez.

James Thompson won in Kansas, Welder in Kansas (not exactly  a"liberal" state)...and three of the AOC Michigan candidates were Muslim, so it would have taken...well, basically a miracle, in this current age of hate and division, for them to win.  Interestingly, the candidate who was in the lead 2-3 weeks ago in the gubernatorial race was Indian-Amererican, but he finished third, behind Sayed.

Btw Reddy, when do you think it will be possible for candidates with names like Sayed, Saad and Tlaib to win in America?  2025? 2030? 2050?  They only lost because of their progressive beliefs?  Hmmm...

And don't say Keith Ellison or Andre Carson, their names doesn't exactly sound Islamic.

 

Finally, hope you’re paying attention to the union dues vote in MO, and the margins.  Clinton and Obama have as much to do with their disintegration as almost anyone but Reagan. It’s also a large reason that quadrant of the Heartland...SE Minnesota, SW Wisconsin, NE Iowa and western Illinois turned to Trump.  40 years of unions losing their jobs and bargaining power vis a vis American MNC’s.

And Missouri is more conservative than it is liberal...basically the whole state after StL, KC and Columbia.

 

 

Edited August 8, 2018 by caulfield12

[GoSox05]

8 hours ago, Reddy said:

How'd tonight go for the "AOC plays GREAT in the Midwest" crowd?

Rashida Tlaib won.  She is going unopposed in the general.  So the first Muslim women in congress.

James Thompson won.

Looks like Brent Welder lost, but to a pretty progressive candidate as well.

Abdul El-Sayed, a 33 Muslim Democratic Socialist finished with 330,000 votes in a red state.

Not to bad.  Moving in the right direction.

[Reddy]

31 minutes ago, GoSox05 said:

Rashida Tlaib won.  She is going unopposed in the general.  So the first Muslim women in congress.

James Thompson won.

Looks like Brent Welder lost, but to a pretty progressive candidate as well.

Abdul El-Sayed, a 33 Muslim Democratic Socialist finished with 330,000 votes in a red state.

Not to bad.  Moving in the right direction.

Man, I just spent the last few weeks since AOC hearing about how "WE CAN WIN EVERYWHERE".

I didn't realize by "win" you meant "lose". Thanks for a clarification of the goalposts.

Thompson had already had a nationally spotlighted special election. No one was going to challenge him seriously, and I agree that Davids is a great progressive candidate. Weird that Bernie and AOC didn't endorse her, huh? Bernie doesn't have the magic with voters y'all think he does. Not in the heartland. That's why he's a terrible POTUS choice. He's not adored out here like you think he is. We don't have time to "move the right direction" and lose again this fall or in 2020.

[Reddy]

5 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Btw Reddy, when do you think it will be possible for candidates with names like Sayed, Saad and Tlaib to win in America?  2025? 2030? 2050?  They only lost because of their progressive beliefs?  Hmmm...

1

This might be the dumbest thing you've ever posted.

Please recite our last President's full name.

[GoSox05]

13 minutes ago, Reddy said:

Man, I just spent the last few weeks since AOC hearing about how "WE CAN WIN EVERYWHERE".

I didn't realize by "win" you meant "lose". Thanks for a clarification of the goalposts.

Thompson had already had a nationally spotlighted special election. No one was going to challenge him seriously, and I agree that Davids is a great progressive candidate. Weird that Bernie and AOC didn't endorse her, huh? Bernie doesn't have the magic with voters y'all think he does. Not in the heartland. That's why he's a terrible POTUS choice. He's not adored out here like you think he is. We don't have time to "move the right direction" and lose again this fall or in 2020.

They didn't endorse her because she doesn't support medicare for all.  AOC said she would support her in the general election. 

I don't remember hearing AOC or anyone on the left ever say, "we are 100% guaranteed to win ever election ever."  They only ever said, we can do better in rural areas and the Midwest than you think we can. 

I could care less about "goalposts".  A 33 year old Democratic Socialist Muslim doing that well is a great step.   He would have gotten about 100 votes 10 years ago.

I can not tell you how much I love being told who will and will not make a good POTUS choice, by the people that backed the candidate who lost to a game show host.  It never gets old. 

 

 

[Reddy]

17 minutes ago, GoSox05 said:

They didn't endorse her because she doesn't support medicare for all.  AOC said she would support her in the general election. 

I don't remember hearing AOC or anyone on the left ever say, "we are 100% guaranteed to win ever election ever."  They only ever said, we can do better in rural areas and the Midwest than you think we can. 

I could care less about "goalposts".  A 33 year old Democratic Socialist Muslim doing that well is a great step.   He would have gotten about 100 votes 10 years ago.

I can not tell you how much I love being told who will and will not make a good POTUS choice, by the people that backed the candidate who lost to a game show host.  It never gets old. 

 

 

How about by someone who talks to hundreds of Midwestern voters every week?

[GoSox05]

9 minutes ago, Reddy said:

How about by someone who talks to hundreds of Midwestern voters every week?

Tell me, what do they want? 

[caulfield12]

21 minutes ago, Reddy said:

How about by someone who talks to hundreds of Midwestern voters every week?

Hillary is from the northern suburbs of Chicago...why didn’t she understand the importance of the Heartland?  Oh, it’s all her campaign staff starting with Mook, Abedin/Weiner, Donna Brazile, Comey and Lynch.

Who won the Haley Stevens race, btw?  Officially called?

Obama was non-denominational Christian, but 25% of the people (let’s call it Trump’s true base) still thought he was Muslim...would he have had a chance if he was “trained in an Indonesian madrasa” as was alleged by the GOP?

 

Honestly, I’m starting to think it’s better to let the GOP basically destroy the US so that some of the progressive ideas that weren’t radical even during FDR’s (and Henry Wallace’s time) would seem much less radical.....eventually, everyone will be forced to acknowledge that the status quo/rightward drift since the 1980s is leading the country into oblivion and irrelevance, and bankruptcy (well, technically a devalued currency and unwillingness by other countries to finance our debt which the GOP no longer acknowledges is a consequential issue at all.)

 

Edited August 8, 2018 by caulfield12

[Reddy]

3 hours ago, GoSox05 said:

Tell me, what do they want? 

Moderate Democrats. People who support women's reproductive rights, raising the min wage (not to a blanket $15, but to a price point their local economies can afford. I've had this convo NUMEROUS times), more funding for trade schools, apprenticeship programs and training programs for plumbers, carpenters, electricians, etc. Affordable college education, funding for infrastructure. Defense of medicaid and social security.

They decry the "socialism" of Bernie and the far-left and don't like people getting things "for free". BUT these are generally lower-information voters (MOST voters are lower-information voters) and they like the programs that help THEM, but they like them because they worked their ASSES off and think they've earned them, while the younger generation is lazy and entitled. I know most of that is actually bullshit, but you aren't going to be able to re-educate millions and millions of voters. You have to meet them where they are and give them a candidate they'll vote for, not live in some fantasy world about the candidate they SHOULD vote for. Because when you do that, you lose. As we saw last night in Michigan, Kansas and we've seen happen across the midwest REPEATEDLY in resounding fashion since 2016.