Midterms 2018

[Reddy]

1 hour ago, GoSox05 said:

Luckily Nate Silver is never wrong and Democrats know how to win when they are supposed to.......

(he wasn't wrong)

[GoSox05]

He once said that Trump had a 2% chance of winning the Republican primary. 

He admitted some of the mistakes he made, so hopefully he is a little better this time around, I just don't trust it totally.

[The Beast]

If any of you lives in Illinois’ 6th district, have you paid attention to the race between Peter Roskam (incumbent GOP) and Sean Casten? There have been some solid debates and even though Roskam has quite the war chest, there are lots of constituents that have been pissed about how he doesn’t hold town halls, is against the ACA and wants it repealed, voted for the tax cut and doesn’t acknowledge the impact on the deficit it creates, and doesn’t agree with climate change’s existence or acting on it (not pro green job creation or environmental regulation).

Is anyone voting in this election? I’m surprised that since it covers a broad area that it isn’t being talked about here. The locations where the sixth district is in include:

Algonquin, Barrington, Barrington Hills, Bartlett, Burr Ridge, Carol Stream, Carpentersville, Cary, Clarendon Hills, Crystal Lake, Darien, Deer Park, Downers Grove, Elgin, East Dundee, Forest Lake, Fox River Grove, Gilberts, Glen Ellyn, Hawthorn Woods, Hinsdale, Hoffman Estates, Inverness, Kildeer, Lake Barrington, Lake in the Hills, Lake Zurich, Lakewood, Lisle, Lombard, Long Grove, Naperville, North Barrington, Oak Brook, Oakbrook Terrace, Oakwood Hills, Palatine, Port Barrington, Rolling Meadows, Sleepy Hollow, South Barrington, South Elgin, St. Charles, Tower Lakes, Trout Valley, Warrenville, Wayne, West Chicago, West Dundee, Westmont, Wheaton, Willowbrook and Winfield.

[GoSox05]

15 hours ago, The Beast said:

If any of you lives in Illinois’ 6th district, have you paid attention to the race between Peter Roskam (incumbent GOP) and Sean Casten? There have been some solid debates and even though Roskam has quite the war chest, there are lots of constituents that have been pissed about how he doesn’t hold town halls, is against the ACA and wants it repealed, voted for the tax cut and doesn’t acknowledge the impact on the deficit it creates, and doesn’t agree with climate change’s existence or acting on it (not pro green job creation or environmental regulation).

Is anyone voting in this election? I’m surprised that since it covers a broad area that it isn’t being talked about here. The locations where the sixth district is in include:

Algonquin, Barrington, Barrington Hills, Bartlett, Burr Ridge, Carol Stream, Carpentersville, Cary, Clarendon Hills, Crystal Lake, Darien, Deer Park, Downers Grove, Elgin, East Dundee, Forest Lake, Fox River Grove, Gilberts, Glen Ellyn, Hawthorn Woods, Hinsdale, Hoffman Estates, Inverness, Kildeer, Lake Barrington, Lake in the Hills, Lake Zurich, Lakewood, Lisle, Lombard, Long Grove, Naperville, North Barrington, Oak Brook, Oakbrook Terrace, Oakwood Hills, Palatine, Port Barrington, Rolling Meadows, Sleepy Hollow, South Barrington, South Elgin, St. Charles, Tower Lakes, Trout Valley, Warrenville, Wayne, West Chicago, West Dundee, Westmont, Wheaton, Willowbrook and Winfield.

My brother lives in Downers Grove and I know he will be voting for Sean Casten.  I was looking at voting map from the 2016 election and I was surprised that Downers Grove, Naperville and some other western suburbs went to Clinton and in some cases pretty heavily.  I would have thought it went to Trump.

[StrangeSox]

There are phone banks and canvassing for Casten that you can sign up for:

https://events.mobilizeamerica.io/castenforcongress/

 

Unfortunately I don't see the option that a lot of campaigns are doing where you can phonebank from home. Hopefully they add that as the election draws closer.

[The Beast]

4 hours ago, GoSox05 said:

My brother lives in Downers Grove and I know he will be voting for Sean Casten.  I was looking at voting map from the 2016 election and I was surprised that Downers Grove, Naperville and some other western suburbs went to Clinton and in some cases pretty heavily.  I would have thought it went to Trump.

I think the political landscape is shifting as the population is aging but lots of young families are moving in so maybe that’s why they voted for Clinton. I’m surprised more people here aren’t in the district, but if they are they should vote Casten. This is definitely a winnable seat.

4 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

There are phone banks and canvassing for Casten that you can sign up for:

https://events.mobilizeamerica.io/castenforcongress/

 

Unfortunately I don't see the option that a lot of campaigns are doing where you can phonebank from home. Hopefully they add that as the election draws closer.

I’m canvassing for him tomorrow, we will see how it goes. I’ll just remember the talking points and to keep my cool with those who don’t agree. I would agree that phone banks from home would be effective and I’ll mention it to them tomorrow.

[StrangeSox]

They might have targeted lists so you're only going door-to-door to registered democrats. My local dem org figured that out a couple of years ago so that rather than canvassing the whole area and reminding everyone that there's an important election coming up, you're focusing on turning out your voters. You're not trying to convince a Roskam voter to switch in an argument on their doorstep, you're trying to make sure Casten or potential Casten voters show up to the polls!

Not sure if the campaign is focusing on it, but Illinois makes absentee voting by mail very easy. Some states have very high hurdles, but in Illinois you just fill out a request and they send you a ballot. Here's the one for DuPage, which is where I think a majority of Roskam's district lays. Other county clerks' offices have similar pages. Hopefully the campaign is pushing the idea of early or mail/absentee voting, turnout turnout turnout!

https://www.dupageco.org/Election/Voting/37064/

For the phone banking, I got the idea from a progressive primary challenge in Delaware, could look to that as a model. 

https://www.kerrievelynharris.com/phonebank/

Edited August 24, 2018 by StrangeSox

[The Beast]

On 8/24/2018 at 1:15 PM, StrangeSox said:

They might have targeted lists so you're only going door-to-door to registered democrats. My local dem org figured that out a couple of years ago so that rather than canvassing the whole area and reminding everyone that there's an important election coming up, you're focusing on turning out your voters. You're not trying to convince a Roskam voter to switch in an argument on their doorstep, you're trying to make sure Casten or potential Casten voters show up to the polls!

Not sure if the campaign is focusing on it, but Illinois makes absentee voting by mail very easy. Some states have very high hurdles, but in Illinois you just fill out a request and they send you a ballot. Here's the one for DuPage, which is where I think a majority of Roskam's district lays. Other county clerks' offices have similar pages. Hopefully the campaign is pushing the idea of early or mail/absentee voting, turnout turnout turnout!

https://www.dupageco.org/Election/Voting/37064/

For the phone banking, I got the idea from a progressive primary challenge in Delaware, could look to that as a model. 

https://www.kerrievelynharris.com/phonebank/

They sure did have us target democrats, which took the pressure off of me. I just made it personal with why I would suggest Casten is a better choice, that his tax plan would return the current corporate tax rate but gives businesses who invest in their employees or give them higher wages tax relief. So there are targeted tax benefits as opposed to a blanket corporate tax reduction policy. I also mentioned how he would work restore the standard deduction that the taxpayers had stripped from the new tax plan. I also mentioned how he would push legislation to reward businesses for innovation that leads to jobs and allows people to get new jobs with automation impacting old jobs.

I only had two republicans push me away immediately, which I thought was fair because they were leaning or strong republicans. It’s really interesting how much information is available about a person, their age and their voting records.

The campaign was pushing vote by mail, but I didn’t get that far with people. An effective thing to do would be to have small packets of flyers and vote by mail letters in a small envelope for voters to have in their door or when materials are handed out.

I hope the campaign considers phone banks from home since more people would likely do that.

Edited August 26, 2018 by The Beast

[Reddy]

On 8/24/2018 at 12:59 PM, The Beast said:

I think the political landscape is shifting as the population is aging but lots of young families are moving in so maybe that’s why they voted for Clinton. I’m surprised more people here aren’t in the district, but if they are they should vote Casten. This is definitely a winnable seat.

I’m canvassing for him tomorrow, we will see how it goes. I’ll just remember the talking points and to keep my cool with those who don’t agree. I would agree that phone banks from home would be effective and I’ll mention it to them tomorrow.

Doors are the most effective voter contact by a large margin. Thanks for doing that. My whole life revolves around convincing people to do it, so I appreciate you taking the time. 

[Reddy]

2 hours ago, The Beast said:

They sure did have us target democrats, which took the pressure off of me. I just made it personal with why I would suggest Casten is a better choice, that his tax plan would return the current corporate tax rate but gives businesses who invest in their employees or give them higher wages tax relief. So there are targeted tax benefits as opposed to a blanket corporate tax reduction policy. I also mentioned how he would work restore the standard deduction that the taxpayers had stripped from the new tax plan. I also mentioned how he would push legislation to reward businesses for innovation that leads to jobs and allows people to get new jobs with automation impacting old jobs.

I only had two republicans push me away immediately, which I thought was fair because they were leaning or strong republicans. It’s really interesting how much information is available about a person, their age and their voting records.

The campaign was pushing vote by mail, but I didn’t get that far with people. An effective thing to do would be to have small packets of flyers and vote by mail letters in a small envelope for voters to have in their door or when materials are handed out.

I hope the campaign considers phone banks from home since more people would likely do that.

We're pushing VBM, too, because not only does it boost turnout, but someone who's a low-propensity voter is 50% more likely to vote if they receive a ballot. That's huge. It's basically the real reason we're canvassing at this point, and I'm sure they view it the same way.

Thanks again for doing that. It really is incredibly valuable to the campaign. Field programs can boost turnout by 2-4%, which is really significant in close races like many of these will be. 

[The Beast]

15 hours ago, Reddy said:

We're pushing VBM, too, because not only does it boost turnout, but someone who's a low-propensity voter is 50% more likely to vote if they receive a ballot. That's huge. It's basically the real reason we're canvassing at this point, and I'm sure they view it the same way.

Thanks again for doing that. It really is incredibly valuable to the campaign. Field programs can boost turnout by 2-4%, which is really significant in close races like many of these will be. 

I’m all for volunteering to take an unresponsive politician who doesn’t reflect his constituents interests or let alone meet with them out of power. I’ve mentioned Roskam before and someone came at me about not reflecting his constituents’ views, but I can’t see how he does with his tax reform or health care policies.

I can see how the campaign would like to get vote by mail ballots, but volunteers really need to keep their pitch simple and remember to mention VBM. I didn’t get that far. I wonder if it is legal to call people at the phone bank and send them an application to vote by mail. Also, voters might feel better knowing their ballots are being delivered by mail as opposed to being counted at the polls, especially if there is  some sort of interference. I know, it’s a tin foil hat theory.

[Jack Parkman]

I'm in IL-06 and I've been involved during the whole process. For anyone that despises Trump, Roskam has voted with him on 98% of issues. Roskam voted for the Tax Bill when his constituency was among the hardest hit in the COUNTRY. On my political To Do list, helping defeat Peter Roskam is #1.

[The Beast]

27 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I'm in IL-06 and I've been involved during the whole process. For anyone that despises Trump, Roskam has voted with him on 98% of issues. Roskam voted for the Tax Bill when his constituency was among the hardest hit in the COUNTRY. On my political To Do list, helping defeat Peter Roskam is #1.

What part are you in? I was in Downers Grove (and grew up so I was there for about 22 years) but now am on the border in Woodridge. People are really fed up with the standard deduction being done away with. I’m sure even some republicans are pissed about it too.

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, The Beast said:

What part are you in? I was in Downers Grove (and grew up so I was there for about 22 years) but now am on the border in Woodridge. People are really fed up with the standard deduction being done away with. I’m sure even some republicans are pissed about it too.

I'm in Elgin. I'm in that weird slice of the district where two miles to the east you're in IL-08 and two miles west you're in IL-14. AKA the gerrymandered to hell portion. 

[The Beast]

3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I'm in Elgin. I'm in that weird slice of the district where two miles to the east you're in IL-08 and two miles west you're in IL-14. AKA the gerrymandered to hell portion. 

I hear you about being in a weird slice, the neighborhood north of me and two steps east is in Downers Grove and my portion is Woodridge but the kids go to Downers Grove Schools. Hopefully the house goes to the democrats so they have an advantage with redistricting in 2020. 

Also, I used the wrong term - not the standard deduction, the SALT deduction for property taxes is what I meant.

[Reddy]

8 hours ago, The Beast said:

I’m all for volunteering to take an unresponsive politician who doesn’t reflect his constituents interests or let alone meet with them out of power. I’ve mentioned Roskam before and someone came at me about not reflecting his constituents’ views, but I can’t see how he does with his tax reform or health care policies.

I can see how the campaign would like to get vote by mail ballots, but volunteers really need to keep their pitch simple and remember to mention VBM. I didn’t get that far. I wonder if it is legal to call people at the phone bank and send them an application to vote by mail. Also, voters might feel better knowing their ballots are being delivered by mail as opposed to being counted at the polls, especially if there is  some sort of interference. I know, it’s a tin foil hat theory.

Yep, we can call voters and mail them absentee ballot request forms. Totally legal.

[caulfield12]

A victory for the anti-Establishment...

 

Andrew Gillum pulled off an upset victory Tuesday night in Florida’s Democratic primary in a bid to become the state’s first African-American governor.

Gillum, the progressive mayor of Tallahassee who had been endorsed in the race by Sen. Bernie Sanders, narrowly defeated former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham, the Associated Press reported. Polls showed him surging late in the race, and his victory shocked most political observers in Florida who assumed it was Graham’s to lose. In part, that was because Graham is the daughter of Bob Graham, a former Florida governor and U.S. senator.

Gillum quickly set his sights on what should prove to be a difficult general election battle.

“Those of us who voted for me, those who did not vote at all, those who couldn’t vote for me because they may be Republicans…” Gillum said at a victory party. “But you want to know something? I want to be their governor, too.”

But for moment, progressive politicians like Sanders paused to celebrate Gillum’s accomplishment.

[The Beast]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

A victory for the anti-Establishment...

 

Andrew Gillum pulled off an upset victory Tuesday night in Florida’s Democratic primary in a bid to become the state’s first African-American governor.

Gillum, the progressive mayor of Tallahassee who had been endorsed in the race by Sen. Bernie Sanders, narrowly defeated former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham, the Associated Press reported. Polls showed him surging late in the race, and his victory shocked most political observers in Florida who assumed it was Graham’s to lose. In part, that was because Graham is the daughter of Bob Graham, a former Florida governor and U.S. senator.

Gillum quickly set his sights on what should prove to be a difficult general election battle.

“Those of us who voted for me, those who did not vote at all, those who couldn’t vote for me because they may be Republicans…” Gillum said at a victory party. “But you want to know something? I want to be their governor, too.”

But for moment, progressive politicians like Sanders paused to celebrate Gillum’s accomplishment.

If the democratic votes were tallied from all candidates and we looked at the popular votes from both parties, we would see that the democrat would win in Florida. This isn’t to say Trump’s candidate didn’t do better in Florida overall though.

[ptatc]

37 minutes ago, The Beast said:

If the democratic votes were tallied from all candidates and we looked at the popular votes from both parties, we would see that the democrat would win in Florida. This isn’t to say Trump’s candidate didn’t do better in Florida overall though.

The issues with primaries though is you can get a significant group from the other party sabotaging the vote by voting for the underdog you has a lesser chance to win the general election. Primaries are like preseason football, you really have a tough time reading the results.

[StrangeSox]

Yeah, primary turnout isn't a reliable predictor of general turnout/results.

[StrangeSox]

hooooo boy off to a good start in the FL gov general

 

 

 

[BigSqwert]

"He speaks so well"

[southsider2k5]

43 minutes ago, BigSqwert said:

"He speaks so well"

To be fair, I bet Trump has plenty of black friends.

[bmags]

Can't believe that dude spent 30 million of his own money to finish with less than 10% in a primary lol.

[The Beast]

In less than an hour, I’ll be doing a phone bank for Sean Casten. This was a poor choice of words on Casten’s part, even if I would agree that Trump has brought out vitriol and hate in people. Hopefully this won’t harm his chances that much.

Edited August 30, 2018 by The Beast