Midterms 2018

[The Beast]

I’m not sure if many of you live in the Illinois 6th congressional district or have family and friends that live there, but the recent New York Times poll shows a toss up. 

I wonder if you all think a republican leaning district that overwhelmingly voted for Clinton would vote for Sean Casten, a businessman and scientist who is for universal health care, targeted tax cuts for business to invest in their employees, invest in infrastructure and clean energy, and restoring the SALT deductions. His opponent, Peter Roskam, has name recognition but doesn’t meet in person with constituents and is in lockstep with Trump in terms of taxes, gun legislation and health care legislation. I wonder if Casten has a shot in a district that a republican has controlled since the 70s.

[The Beast]

Damn it felt good to hear Obama today.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/obama-state-of-our-democracy-09-07-2018/index.html

 

[maggsmaggs]

6 hours ago, The Beast said:

I’m not sure if many of you live in the Illinois 6th congressional district or have family and friends that live there, but the recent New York Times poll shows a toss up. 

I wonder if you all think a republican leaning district that overwhelmingly voted for Clinton would vote for Sean Casten, a businessman and scientist who is for universal health care, targeted tax cuts for business to invest in their employees, invest in infrastructure and clean energy, and restoring the SALT deductions. His opponent, Peter Roskam, has name recognition but doesn’t meet in person with constituents and is in lockstep with Trump in terms of taxes, gun legislation and health care legislation. I wonder if Casten has a shot in a district that a republican has controlled since the 70s.

For what it's worth, I live in the district and, at least in Wheaton (which has a reputation for being super conservative), there are way more Casten signs than Roskam. 

[Reddy]

1 hour ago, maggsmaggs said:

For what it's worth, I live in the district and, at least in Wheaton (which has a reputation for being super conservative), there are way more Casten signs than Roskam. 

Signs don't vote

[The Beast]

3 hours ago, maggsmaggs said:

For what it's worth, I live in the district and, at least in Wheaton (which has a reputation for being super conservative), there are way more Casten signs than Roskam. 

That’s still good to hear considering Casten is going to need all of the help he can get. What is the ratio? Do you see lots of Roskam signs?

[maggsmaggs]

On 9/7/2018 at 4:53 PM, The Beast said:

That’s still good to hear considering Casten is going to need all of the help he can get. What is the ratio? Do you see lots of Roskam signs?

Prior to last week, it was definitely 3 to 1 Casten. But this past weekend, Roskam has definitely closed the gap it seems. Closer to 50/50.

[The Beast]

39 minutes ago, maggsmaggs said:

Prior to last week, it was definitely 3 to 1 Casten. But this past weekend, Roskam has definitely closed the gap it seems. Closer to 50/50.

No kidding. Well, Downers Grove seems to be 95-5 Casten. It’s still good to see 50/50 Casten and Roskam in Wheaton, though.

[ptatc]

22 hours ago, The Beast said:

No kidding. Well, Downers Grove seems to be 95-5 Casten. It’s still good to see 50/50 Casten and Roskam in Wheaton, though.

I see your guy got himself some good article time in the Tribune. Always good to see differing views out there with competition regardless in you agree or disagree with them. Get the issues out there.

[The Beast]

3 hours ago, ptatc said:

I see your guy got himself some good article time in the Tribune. Always good to see differing views out there with competition regardless in you agree or disagree with them. Get the issues out there.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-met-illinois-6th-district-peter-roskam-sean-casten-daily-herald-20180910-story.html

https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20180910/we-are-really-totally-at-odds-on-this-roskam-casten-sharply-disagree-on-2017-tax-law

To be transparent, I was concerned by Sean’s choice of words of Trump as bin Laden, but, I would agree that the president’s election enabled violent individuals and bigoted organizations to think their actions were okay. I posted both of these articles because it provides more perspective than one of them.

I listened to the whole debate and while both the incumbent and Casten made good points (aside from Roskam tying Casten to Pritzker just like he has been tied to Madigan for a federal congressional race), I felt that change is needed in terms of economic policy that impacts the middle class, policy that health care, environmental issues, creating jobs of tomorrow and combating the administration’s agenda for which I don’t agree with. Hopefully the newspapers endorse Casten for congress and voters are motivated for change on Election Day and issue a rebuke of the president and his agenda.

Edited September 10, 2018 by The Beast

[Heads22]

Bizarre set of polling in Iowa.

Gov (D) Hubbell 36, (R) Reynolds* 31

IA1 (D) Finkenauer 43, (R) Blum* 38

IA2 (D) Loebsack* 45, (R) Peters 21

IA3 (R) Young 47*, (D) Axne 31

IA4 (R) King 41*, (D) Scholten 31

IA1 is about the only one that looks accurate. I can buy all of the leaders, but I can't buy Reynolds support being that low, or Young being up by 16 in a race that's likely to be within 5. 

[Reddy]

1 hour ago, Heads22 said:

Bizarre set of polling in Iowa.

Gov (D) Hubbell 36, (R) Reynolds* 31

IA1 (D) Finkenauer 43, (R) Blum* 38

IA2 (D) Loebsack* 45, (R) Peters 21

IA3 (R) Young 47*, (D) Axne 31

IA4 (R) King 41*, (D) Scholten 31

IA1 is about the only one that looks accurate. I can buy all of the leaders, but I can't buy Reynolds support being that low, or Young being up by 16 in a race that's likely to be within 5. 

It's definitely odd, but with a sample size of 250 LV and +-6.7 or whatever it is, you can get some wacky results. On the ground, though, there really are a lot of undecided voters out there.

[Dam8610]

On 9/7/2018 at 2:57 PM, Reddy said:

Signs don't vote

Wow. Just...wow.

[StrangeSox]

yard signs are not a reliable predictor of election results. that doesn't seem like a controversial statement.

[The Beast]

4 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

yard signs are not a reliable predictor of election results. that doesn't seem like a controversial statement.

Seconded.

[Quin]

59 minutes ago, The Beast said:

Seconded.

Thirded. It's a fun way to read the room, but no real indicator.

[StrangeSox]

 

 

[The Beast]

5 hours ago, Quinarvy said:

Thirded. It's a fun way to read the room, but no real indicator.

Possible indicators could include the fact that the district voted for Clinton in 2016, the possibility of a blue wave and that Roskam supported the tax plan that capped state and local deductions (SALT) that really will harm homeowners. I’ve included a link that Casten posted on this today below:

The IRS just released figures that show taxpayers in #IL06 will suffer the worst blow in Illinois. Roskam’s tax scam capped the federal deduction for state and local taxes (SALT) - so residents will pay on average $11,780 more in McHenry County to $18,369 more in Lake County.

#TaxScam

https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-county-data-2016

Having worked on campaigns of both sides of the aisle, I think that signs could show support in the neighborhoods, but there are lots of private people and those who don’t want to share their political opinions. Also, I know that both sides are focused on getting their base to turn out and so people are only going door to door wth voters who they can persuade to vote or voters who will vote.  So if there were six signs for Casten, there are likely six people without signs who will vote for Roskam, even if I think lots of people are pissed at him for being in lockstep with Trump and hurting their pocketbooks in terms of property taxes.

Edited September 13, 2018 by The Beast

[Dam8610]

10 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

yard signs are not a reliable predictor of election results. that doesn't seem like a controversial statement.

 

6 hours ago, The Beast said:

Seconded.

 

5 hours ago, Quinarvy said:

Thirded. It's a fun way to read the room, but no real indicator.

Perhaps I am just overwhelmed by the general arrogance of Reddy, but while yard signs are not likely a perfect predictor of election results, they are certainly an indicator of enthusiasm behind a campaign, and it's my understanding that voter enthusiasm is an indicator of likely voter turnout.

To put it differently, had one gone by yard signs in 2016, that person would've been one of the few to correctly predict Trump winning the presidency. Few other predictive methods would've yielded that result.

[caulfield12]

In the Woodward book, they talk about the RNC operation being revamped under Preibus (in light of the Obama dominance over two presidential elections) and how they had those strategic lists broken down into 90% likely to vote for Trump, 80% likely...and just hammered into them submission sending out all vote by mail/voter registration materials, calling pretty persistently until they got a commitment to get out and vote.

As much as the story was the "independent/moderate" votes turning to Trump the last couple of weeks and minority voting being quiet or muted in terms of intensity for Clinton, the base REALLY turned out for Trump, and the Dems just took for granted a lot of voters in those Midwestern and Rust Belt states we keep coming back to over and over again (IA/WI/MI/OH/PA).

[The Beast]

1 hour ago, Dam8610 said:

 

 

Perhaps I am just overwhelmed by the general arrogance of Reddy, but while yard signs are not likely a perfect predictor of election results, they are certainly an indicator of enthusiasm behind a campaign, and it's my understanding that voter enthusiasm is an indicator of likely voter turnout.

To put it differently, had one gone by yard signs in 2016, that person would've been one of the few to correctly predict Trump winning the presidency. Few other predictive methods would've yielded that result.

I figured there was something going on with how you responded to Reddy in a few threads. I didn’t see a lot of Trump signs in my district in Illinois but I bet they were in the rust belt and Florida, which were obviously enthusiast about him in 2016.

 

49 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

In the Woodward book, they talk about the RNC operation being revamped under Preibus (in light of the Obama dominance over two presidential elections) and how they had those strategic lists broken down into 90% likely to vote for Trump, 80% likely...and just hammered into them submission sending out all vote by mail/voter registration materials, calling pretty persistently until they got a commitment to get out and vote.

As much as the story was the "independent/moderate" votes turning to Trump the last couple of weeks and minority voting being quiet or muted in terms of intensity for Clinton, the base REALLY turned out for Trump, and the Dems just took for granted a lot of voters in those Midwestern and Rust Belt states we keep coming back to over and over again (IA/WI/MI/OH/PA).

Democrats never can make that mistake again, they need to focus on the midwestern states and the rust belt. Their policies and ideas need to impact those people and they need to put more resources in those areas. Jon Favreau talked about this on “The Wilderness” when I listened today. Democrats focused more nationally on Obama as opposed to locally and lost elections due to the scarce resources locally. Evidently Howard Dean played a role with resources as well. As a young voter in 2008 and 2010, I had no idea that was happening.

Edited September 13, 2018 by The Beast

[Reddy]

1 hour ago, Dam8610 said:

 

 

Perhaps I am just overwhelmed by the general arrogance of Reddy, but while yard signs are not likely a perfect predictor of election results, they are certainly an indicator of enthusiasm behind a campaign, and it's my understanding that voter enthusiasm is an indicator of likely voter turnout.

To put it differently, had one gone by yard signs in 2016, that person would've been one of the few to correctly predict Trump winning the presidency. Few other predictive methods would've yielded that result.

Yard signs may matter a LITTLE BIT in very rural races where name recognition is low. Otherwise, they don't move the needle. This is backed by statistical evidence.

In my race I'd love to yard sign the hell out of my small towns that aren't in our media markets, but otherwise it just doesn't matter.

[StrangeSox]

538 has both their House and Senate forecasts live now:

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Dems at ~80% to take the House

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=midterms-header

Dems at about ~32% to take the Senate in large part to it being a very R-friendly map this year

 

[Leonard Zelig]

21 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

 

 

Perhaps I am just overwhelmed by the general arrogance of Reddy, but while yard signs are not likely a perfect predictor of election results, they are certainly an indicator of enthusiasm behind a campaign, and it's my understanding that voter enthusiasm is an indicator of likely voter turnout.

To put it differently, had one gone by yard signs in 2016, that person would've been one of the few to correctly predict Trump winning the presidency. Few other predictive methods would've yielded that result.

Which states did you gather yard sign data from?  In an ordinary election, Clinton would have won because she received the most votes.  

[The Beast]

Interesting, I didn’t know that the “Mike Madigan association because someone is a Democrat” applied during federal congressional races. Maybe Peter Roskam needs to look in the mirror and think about who he is associated himself with before speaking again.

It would be better to elect a congressman who makes tax policies to benefit the middle class, considers how it impacts new homeowners in DuPage county and the sixth district, wants to improve health care policy to protect those with pre-existing conditions, cares about the environment and its impact on people - young and old alike and actually meets with constituents as opposed to hanging out on telecalls with only a select few of voters. 

I’m all for voting split tickets if you’re fed up with Madigan or other political leaders locally in Illinois, but the vote at the federal level is clear - Sean Casten is going to be the person that represents constituents from the sixth congressional district. 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-met-roskam-casten-madigan-20180917-story.html#nt=oft02a-2gp2

And yes, I saw 17 Casten signs versus 5 Roskam signs on a single drive home in Downers Grove on Saturday. It may not show what the turnout will be like, but the race is on like Donkey Kong.

Edited September 17, 2018 by The Beast

[NorthSideSox72]

Cruz is taking some pretty big gambles in his approach choices in his race against O'Rourke. That tells me his internal polling is showing a very tight race. If he was comfortable, he wouldn't be taking these risks. Not sure Beto can win, but I'm pretty confident it's going to be close.