The Beast Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 1 hour ago, NorthSideSox72 said: Cruz is taking some pretty big gambles in his approach choices in his race against O'Rourke. That tells me his internal polling is showing a very tight race. If he was comfortable, he wouldn't be taking these risks. Not sure Beto can win, but I'm pretty confident it's going to be close. What kind of risks is he taking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddy Posted September 19, 2018 Author Share Posted September 19, 2018 Our NY Times live poll is madness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Beast Posted September 19, 2018 Share Posted September 19, 2018 46 minutes ago, Reddy said: Our NY Times live poll is madness. What does your race look like and what does the Illinois sixth congressional district’s look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted September 19, 2018 Share Posted September 19, 2018 Iowa 1st: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/iowa/1/ Abby Finkenauer (D) 55.4 29 in 30 (96.8%) Rod Blum (R)Incumbent 41.7 1 in 30 (3.2% Illinois 6th: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/illinois/6/ My guess is that there's just too much upper class tax cut beneficiaries in the district that are gonna keep voting R, but Casten does have a shot. One thing to keep in mind is that Illinois is gerrymandered by Democrats, so that does result in a whole bunch of suburban R votes being packed into one or two districts so that D's can more easily win the rest of them. Peter J. Roskam (R)Incumbent 51.8 7 in 10 (68.8%) Sean Casten (D) 48.2 3 in 10 (31.2%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoSox05 Posted September 19, 2018 Share Posted September 19, 2018 16 hours ago, The Beast said: What kind of risks is he taking? Nothing really out of the normal for Republicans. Typical stuff like O'Rourke is going to turn the state gay and ban BBQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted September 19, 2018 Share Posted September 19, 2018 26 minutes ago, GoSox05 said: Nothing really out of the normal for Republicans. Typical stuff like O'Rourke is going to turn the state gay and ban BBQ. As is normal for this state, Quinnipiac just released a poll where they switched from registered voters to likely voters and, in no small part because this state makes it really really tough for anyone but the "Right kinda people" to vote, Cruz's lead in that case skyrocketed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoSox05 Posted September 19, 2018 Share Posted September 19, 2018 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: As is normal for this state, Quinnipiac just released a poll where they switched from registered voters to likely voters and, in no small part because this state makes it really really tough for anyone but the "Right kinda people" to vote, Cruz's lead in that case skyrocketed. Yeah, I'm not too excited about this one. I O'Rourke, but come election day there is going to be a lot of "sorry your name is not in the voter roll" or "we closed this polling station, you have use the one 100 miles away". Edited September 19, 2018 by GoSox05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted September 19, 2018 Share Posted September 19, 2018 Polling out of Texas is also not finding an uptick in voting enthusiasm among the latinx population, so that hurts his chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddy Posted September 19, 2018 Author Share Posted September 19, 2018 4 hours ago, StrangeSox said: Polling out of Texas is also not finding an uptick in voting enthusiasm among the latinx population, so that hurts his chances. However, Nate Cohn suggested that this is not abnormal this far out from the election, and that the hispanic vote tends to break late and towards Dems. He said Dems in hispanic-heavy districts will likely seem further behind now than they will be come election day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heads22 Posted September 20, 2018 Share Posted September 20, 2018 14 hours ago, StrangeSox said: Iowa 1st: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/iowa/1/ Abby Finkenauer (D) 55.4 29 in 30 (96.8%) Rod Blum (R)Incumbent 41.7 1 in 30 (3.2% Illinois 6th: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/illinois/6/ My guess is that there's just too much upper class tax cut beneficiaries in the district that are gonna keep voting R, but Casten does have a shot. One thing to keep in mind is that Illinois is gerrymandered by Democrats, so that does result in a whole bunch of suburban R votes being packed into one or two districts so that D's can more easily win the rest of them. Peter J. Roskam (R)Incumbent 51.8 7 in 10 (68.8%) Sean Casten (D) 48.2 3 in 10 (31.2%) As a native of IA-1, its got way more people willing to vote democrat than people would ever imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddy Posted September 20, 2018 Author Share Posted September 20, 2018 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-ia01-1.html NY Times/Siena live poll has Finkenauer leading by 14 pts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted September 20, 2018 Share Posted September 20, 2018 Florida Gov race getting real bad. Love that this is called a "racial controversy," still can't just say what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted September 20, 2018 Share Posted September 20, 2018 @Reddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted September 20, 2018 Share Posted September 20, 2018 https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/o-rourke-leading-cruz-2-163048000.html First polling with O’Rourke leading...still don’t trust it quite yet, because the GOP is desperately trying to save Cruz, Heller and McSalley, with the TN race wide open right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted September 20, 2018 Share Posted September 20, 2018 online only poll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted September 20, 2018 Share Posted September 20, 2018 2 hours ago, caulfield12 said: https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/o-rourke-leading-cruz-2-163048000.html First polling with O’Rourke leading...still don’t trust it quite yet, because the GOP is desperately trying to save Cruz, Heller and McSalley, with the TN race wide open right now. Bredesen is very popular in TN, despite being a Dem. I think he's got a good shot to pull that one out. If I had to bet, I'd definitely take him. 9 minutes ago, bmags said: online only poll Yup, not a poll worthy of consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted September 20, 2018 Share Posted September 20, 2018 Bredesen's a former governor there that was term-limited out and left fairly popular while Marsha Blackburn is not particularly well liked even in a pretty Republican state. I thought online polls have improved in quality quite a bit since the dark days of Zogby? The Reuters/Ipsos poll is a legitimate scientific survey, not some garbage online "opinion poll," at least. It's getting harder and harder to get usable response rates from phone polls. That said, I still don't buy Beto being ahead and think Cruz will win by a couple of points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted September 20, 2018 Share Posted September 20, 2018 more for @Reddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted September 20, 2018 Share Posted September 20, 2018 34 minutes ago, StrangeSox said: Bredesen's a former governor there that was term-limited out and left fairly popular while Marsha Blackburn is not particularly well liked even in a pretty Republican state. I thought online polls have improved in quality quite a bit since the dark days of Zogby? The Reuters/Ipsos poll is a legitimate scientific survey, not some garbage online "opinion poll," at least. It's getting harder and harder to get usable response rates from phone polls. That said, I still don't buy Beto being ahead and think Cruz will win by a couple of points. They are better, but they also when they are an outlier should be treated skeptically. This is clearly an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted September 22, 2018 Share Posted September 22, 2018 Can’t wait to see if he decides to “soldier on” like Collins, Hunter and Joe Moore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Beast Posted September 26, 2018 Share Posted September 26, 2018 Can someone with a finance background explain this to me? Is this really an issue or is this just business? https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/casten-shades-truth-story-about-business-meltdown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, StrangeSox said: Indiana looks forward to JB's election. The exodus out of the state is going to really accelerate with all of the new taxation that is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soxbadger Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 18 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: Indiana looks forward to JB's election. The exodus out of the state is going to really accelerate with all of the new taxation that is coming. If you want good things, you have to pay for them. I gladly pay higher taxes to live in Chicago versus Indiana. Well see what happens, but anything is better than Rauner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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