Shields attracting trade interest

[Dick Allen]

If the Sox were in contention and needed another starter, how would you feel if they acquired James Shields? Probably not so good. And what type of package would you give up for him? Probably next to nothing. 

That's how this will go. If a team takes him, the Sox will eat almost all of the money and get some guy who we most likely will forget ever existed in short order.

 

This is pretty much a non story. It isn't going to make much difference financially or talent wise moving forward if he stays or if he goes. If he really does help the young guys, they are probably better off keeping him this season. 

As for the future, he's probably done after this year. I doubt he will want to play for the wage he would command moving forward.

Edited June 6, 2018 by Dick Allen

[Bob Sacamano]

26 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

If the Sox were in contention and needed another starter, how would you feel if they acquired James Shields? Probably not so good. And what type of package would you give up for him? Probably next to nothing. 

That's how this will go. If a team takes him, the Sox will eat almost all of the money and get some guy who we most likely will forget ever existed in short order.

 

This is pretty much a non story. It isn't going to make much difference financially or talent wise moving forward if he stays or if he goes. If he really does help the young guys, they are probably better off keeping him this season. 

As for the future, he's probably done after this year. I doubt he will want to play for the wage he would command moving forward.

Right, he only makes sense for contenders that are looking for innings out of the back end of the rotation and don't want to give them to young arms/want to limit innings. And then when the season ends, the team likely leaves him off the playoff roster.

I'd definitely dangle him out, eating most of the contract and hope you find maybe some sort LatAm signing you like (obviously, not as one that was highly touted, in the sense he signed a big bonus, as Fernando Tatis).

Edited June 6, 2018 by soxfan2014

[caulfield12]

I think Hahn is smart enough to know that they need to start adding a BIT on the periphery (bullpen is ONE place to start....not a closer like Robertson was in 2014, but a couple of middle relievers to replace Nate Jones) because we should have almost zero confidence that either Giolito or Fulmer is suitable for that role.

Gio COULD do it...but certainly not with the worst walk rate in MLB.

We keep listing all of these guys like Fulmer, Guerrero, Adams, Stephens...and just ASSUME they can fill important pen roles, but almost every playoff-contending team has had to rely on a few veterans (see 2008 Rays) to put them over the top (and also for leadership/“been there, done that” purposes.)

Fry SEEMS like he COULD be a guy...but it’s STILL way too early.   Same with Bummer.   Probably you get 1 of 2 to stand the test of time.   There’s still a lot to heavy lifting to do for about 5 spots, not really being concerned with the long-man/swing role as much until 2020.   Hamilton looks like he has a good shot to make it, but that’s still 3.   Burdi would be another.  One will the the closer, added after 2019 unless they feel the set of options available this offseason (Britton, Kimbrel, Miller, Herrera) makes it worth pursuing sooner rather than later.   So I’d love to sign TWO non closers AND/OR the right closer depending on going market costs in February/March 2019.

I’m also not going to assume someone like Bruce Rondon or Vieira makes it...for every Kahnle/Swarzak we’ve come up with from the scrap heap, we’ve probably gone through 8-10 guys for every big reclamation project payout.

[BlackSox13]

If for some crazy reason a team or teams are interested in Shields, take the best offer.

If Shields is not traded there's no reason to exercise his option for '19. Let him go to free agency. There will be plenty of pitching fillers on the free agent market if the Sox need one or two. There won't be a high demand for Shields so if the Sox need a filler they can always bring Shields back by signing him as a free agent.

[chitownsportsfan]

Package him with whatever reliever the contender wants and try and squeeze a B- type out of it.   Pay his freight if necessary.

[greg775]

6 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

If the Sox were in contention and needed another starter, how would you feel if they acquired James Shields? Probably not so good. And what type of package would you give up for him? Probably next to nothing. 

That's how this will go. If a team takes him, the Sox will eat almost all of the money and get some guy who we most likely will forget ever existed in short order.

 

That's a good post. I'd be furious if we were a contender and he's the guy we acquired. And I'd want us to give up nothing for him. Good points. I mean if a team wants a fifth starter now, or maybe a fourth starter, or even a long relief guy, by all means trade for him. He might help get some outs.

[chitownsportsfan]

33 minutes ago, greg775 said:

That's a good post. I'd be furious if we were a contender and he's the guy we acquired. And I'd want us to give up nothing for him. Good points. I mean if a team wants a fifth starter now, or maybe a fourth starter, or even a long relief guy, by all means trade for him. He might help get some outs.

So you'd be furious that your hypothetical contending team traded for a decent 4th starter or a quality 5th starter and gave up almost nothing, like probably a B- prospect that is the 4th or 5th best guy in your system and is probably years away from helping your big club?

Ok then.

[yesterday333]

From the sounds of it, there will be very few quality starters available in the trade market this year. which could def increase Shields' value.

[striker]

Last year, the Blue Jays got Teoscar Hernandez from the Astros for Francisco Liriano. Liriano at the time had a 5.88 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP. Hernandez was a top 10 Astros prospect. That would be my ask range for Shields.

[wrathofhahn]

5 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

So you'd be furious that your hypothetical contending team traded for a decent 4th starter or a quality 5th starter and gave up almost nothing, like probably a B- prospect that is the 4th or 5th best guy in your system and is probably years away from helping your big club?

Ok then.

Lol we aren't getting that for Shields. I'd be happy if we got a top 20 guy with upside.

[wrathofhahn]

2 hours ago, striker said:

Last year, the Blue Jays got Teoscar Hernandez from the Astros for Francisco Liriano. Liriano at the time had a 5.88 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP. Hernandez was a top 10 Astros prospect. That would be my ask range for Shields.

Lefty with good stuff (they moved him to the pen). Shields is a RHP who barely breaks 90 on his fastball anymore.

 

 

Edited June 7, 2018 by wrathofhahn

[greg775]

7 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

So you'd be furious that your hypothetical contending team traded for a decent 4th starter or a quality 5th starter and gave up almost nothing, like probably a B- prospect that is the 4th or 5th best guy in your system and is probably years away from helping your big club?

Ok then.

I'd be worried that other teams would tee off on him and put our division title at risk.

[GreenSox]

I certainly wouldn't want the Sox to trade for Shields.  But the Sox did with miles off  of his fastball and lousy numbers.  They also traded for Liriano and lousy numbers and Myers with mediocre numbers the last time they were  in contention in July.  And gave up Escobar and Devenski.
So take what you can get.  The Sox can't trade with themselves, but you never no what might happen.

As for reclamation projects like Rondon, those guys are usually under 1 year contracts; either use them if you're contending or flip if you're not.  You can't really build around them.  The bullpen is naturally the last piece that comes together.  Seattle's bullpen went from the best in 2014, to one of the worst in 2015 and back to one of the best in 2016.

Edited June 7, 2018 by GreenSox

[Dick Allen]

You can forget all the nasty things you have thought or said about James Shields the past 2 years to try to justify he actually has value, but he doesn't. He's James freaking Shields. If you are a contender, you don't want him in your rotation, and if God forbid, you really have no other choice, you certainly aren't going to give up anything for him even if all the money was taken care of. 

Half assed is giving a team way too much credit if it traded for Shields to get them to the playoffs.

[Bob Sacamano]

17 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

You can forget all the nasty things you have thought or said about James Shields the past 2 years to try to justify he actually has value, but he doesn't. He's James freaking Shields. If you are a contender, you don't want him in your rotation, and if God forbid, you really have no other choice, you certainly aren't going to give up anything for him even if all the money was taken care of. 

Half assed is giving a team way too much credit if it traded for Shields to get them to the playoffs.

Exactly. The only reason a team would trade for him is the reason I gave on the previous page. And saying he's worth B-level prospects is pretty laughable. Not that I wouldn't love to be proven wrong, however.

[Y2Jimmy0]

You might be able to attach a reliever with a guy like Shields for a team like Milwaukee. Avilan, Soria, and Rondon have all been good and I think Jones still gets moved if he starts to pitch a bit better. I think in a deal with the Brewers you could target a guy like SS Jean Carmona. Former international signing that is #15 in the system. You could even take something like 18 year old OF Je'Von Ward. Those are moves you need to make. Try and get some younger guys for Rookie ball with tools. 

 

I expect Shields to be moved. 

I think Hahn will trade whatever relievers have value as well. I thought Nate Jones would possibly bring back a top 100 guy at the deadline. There's still time but he has a 4.61 FIP, is only striking out 9.82/9 and is walking too many guys. He is 32 years old though and they may deal him due to his extensive injury history regardless. Luis Avilan has value. He makes barely any money and has another year left on his deal. He has a 2.77 FIP with a 1.99 FIP vs LHH. He's also striking out 10/9. Joakim Soria has been quietly solid as well. 10.38 K/9, 2.70 FIP. I personally think all of those guys get moved. 

Bruce Rondon is a bit of a different story. He has put up a 1.97 FIP and 12 K/9. Has been one of the 25 best relievers in the sport. He's 27 with two years reamaining on his deal. Hahn would absolutely trade him after doing similar with Tommy Kahnle last year but I'm not sure if what he'd bring back would be worth getting rid of him. 

On the position player side, Jose Abreu is obviously the big chip. I still don't think they move him. I'm sure they'd trade Avisail Garcia or Leury Garcia at this point but those guys value isn't very high at the moment. I'm curious to see what the front office ends up doing. 

[Dick Allen]

4 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

You might be able to attach a reliever with a guy like Shields for a team like Milwaukee. Avilan, Soria, and Rondon have all been good and I think Jones still gets moved if he starts to pitch a bit better. I think in a deal with the Brewers you could target a guy like SS Jean Carmona. Former international signing that is #15 in the system. You could even take something like 18 year old OF Je'Von Ward. Those are moves you need to make. Try and get some younger guys for Rookie ball with tools. 

 

I expect Shields to be moved. 

I think Hahn will trade whatever relievers have value as well. I thought Nate Jones would possibly bring back a top 100 guy at the deadline. There's still time but he has a 4.61 FIP, is only striking out 9.82/9 and is walking too many guys. He is 32 years old though and they may deal him due to his extensive injury history regardless. Luis Avilan has value. He makes barely any money and has another year left on his deal. He has a 2.77 FIP with a 1.99 FIP vs LHH. He's also striking out 10/9. Joakim Soria has been quietly solid as well. 10.38 K/9, 2.70 FIP. I personally think all of those guys get moved. 

Bruce Rondon is a bit of a different story. He has put up a 1.97 FIP and 12 K/9. Has been one of the 25 best relievers in the sport. He's 27 with two years reamaining on his deal. Hahn would absolutely trade him after doing similar with Tommy Kahnle last year but I'm not sure if what he'd bring back would be worth getting rid of him. 

On the position player side, Jose Abreu is obviously the big chip. I still don't think they move him. I'm sure they'd trade Avisail Garcia or Leury Garcia at this point but those guys value isn't very high at the moment. I'm curious to see what the front office ends up doing. 

I think their biggest chip eventually, maybe not for a year,  is a healthy Carlos Rodon. 

[Bob Sacamano]

2 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

I think their biggest chip eventually, maybe not for a year,  is a healthy Carlos Rodon. 

Yeah guy just needs to stay on the mound. After this year, he'll have what, 3 years of control? And if he can stay healthy and pitch great, there's no chance of an extension anyway.

[BlackSox13]

Yeah, there's a better chance of Shields attracting flies than trade interest.

[greg775]

3 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

You can forget all the nasty things you have thought or said about James Shields the past 2 years to try to justify he actually has value, but he doesn't. He's James freaking Shields. If you are a contender, you don't want him in your rotation, and if God forbid, you really have no other choice, you certainly aren't going to give up anything for him even if all the money was taken care of. 

Half assed is giving a team way too much credit if it traded for Shields to get them to the playoffs.

I know, it's strictly a salary dump and getting rid of him, really. I don't know why I care about a salary dump. I'd love to see Jerry and the investors get hit in the wallet one of these days in response to the lousy product and no concern for fan enjoyment (parking, concession prices). Should be interesting to see which contender takes Shields off the Sox payroll. 

[Bob Sacamano]

2 minutes ago, greg775 said:

I know, it's strictly a salary dump and getting rid of him, really. I don't know why I care about a salary dump. I'd love to see Jerry and the investors get hit in the wallet one of these days in response to the lousy product and no concern for fan enjoyment (parking, concession prices). Should be interesting to see which contender takes Shields off the Sox payroll. 

I'd rather the Sox ate the contract for the best possible return.

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

I'd rather the Sox ate the contract for the best possible return.

I can't imagine a scenario where a team picks up his contract AND gives a return.

[Dick Allen]

If someone would take Shields' money, that would by far trump any player they could acquire for him while eating it. No way that happens.

[greg775]

1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

If someone would take Shields' money, that would by far trump any player they could acquire for him while eating it. No way that happens.

What would they do with the money anyway? Try to get a Class A catcher. Take a shot on that position. 

[Bob Sacamano]

5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I can't imagine a scenario where a team picks up his contract AND gives a return.

Me neither, which isn't what I said at all in the post you are responding to.