White Sox select Nick Madrigal with 4th overall pick

[chitownsportsfan]

It's been awhile since I read Tango but I believe a point of OBP is worth about 1.5x as much in linear run weights as a point of slugging.  All things equal a hitter that hits 200/400/200 is more valuable than one that hits 200/200/400.  

Have we forgotten our Moneyball already!  Don't make outs.  

If Madrigal is getting on base 38% of the time it really doesn't matter how many home runs he hits.  He's not making many outs.   Any power is a bonus.  

[Lillian]

4 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

It's been awhile since I read Tango but I believe a point of OBP is worth about 1.5x as much in linear run weights as a point of slugging.  All things equal a hitter that hits 200/400/200 is more valuable than one that hits 200/200/400.  

Have we forgotten our Moneyball already!  Don't make outs.  

If Madrigal is getting on base 38% of the time it really doesn't matter how many home runs he hits.  He's not making many outs.   Any power is a bonus.  

This is the most valid point, made so far, in this discussion of Madrigal's hitting skill. I frankly hope that he does not try to elevate balls. That is not his game. His value will be on making contact, using his speed and getting on base. I suspect that his ability to barrel up pitches will diminish somewhat, once he begins to face Major League pitching. Although he rarely strikes out, he also does not walk, as much as he should. At his height, his strike zone is pretty small. He should be able to draw more walks, and I would expect his OBP to be around .400. If he does that, sees a lot of pitches and then provides a legitimate stolen base threat, he could be a fantastic lead off hitter. If anyone can learn to be more patient and learn to draw more walks, it is a guy with his kind of baseball acumen. 

[chitownsportsfan]

2 minutes ago, Lillian said:

This is the most valid point, made so far, in this discussion of Madrigal's hitting skill. I frankly hope that he does not try to elevate balls. That is not his game. His value will be on making contact, using his speed and getting on base. I suspect that his ability to barrel up pitches will diminish somewhat, once he begins to face Major League pitching. Although he rarely strikes out, he also does not walk, as much as he should. At his height, his strike zone is pretty small. He should be able to draw more walks, and I would expect his OBP to be around .400. If he does that, sees a lot of pitches and then provides a legitimate stolen base threat, he could be a fantastic lead off hitter. If anyone can learn to be more patient and learn to draw more walks, it is a guy with his kind of baseball acumen. 

Wade Boggs: 301/377/377, wRC+ of 132, over 88 career fWAR.  A guy with a .76 ISO produced a wRC+ of 132.  That tells you a lot about the value of OBP.

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, wrathofhahn said:

If you don't mind seeing 1-2 balls a game fly over his head that other SS would have caught.

Nellie Fox, Bill Mazeroski, Altuve, Pedroia, Biggio....all had the same issue and did pretty well out there.

Mookie Betts is 5’9”.  

You could have left Mike Morse at SS...does that mean his height stops more balls than Anderson’s lateral quickness and leaping ability?  No way.

[wrathofhahn]

55 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

I think to be special he needs to be more of a 15-18 homer guy. Eaton had a 360 babip that year, he became really good when he became a 15 homer guy.

If madrigal hits 12 homers he basically is Howie Kendrick. If he hits 15 he is Dustin Pedroia and with 20 he could be Ian kinsler. I'm sure he will hit 10+ homers, everyone can do that with the new ball. He isn't a slugger but not a pure slapper either.

How are you sure? Where is this certainty coming from? He hit 8 total in three years at oregon state

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, [email protected] said:

I think to be special he needs to be more of a 15-18 homer guy. Eaton had a 360 babip that year, he became really good when he became a 15 homer guy.

If madrigal hits 12 homers he basically is Howie Kendrick. If he hits 15 he is Dustin Pedroia and with 20 he could be Ian kinsler. I'm sure he will hit 10+ homers, everyone can do that with the new ball. He isn't a slugger but not a pure slapper either.

Eaton’s value went sky high because he correctly moved from CF to RF, played it at close to a GG level and racked up a boatload of assists.

[bmags]

12 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

How are you sure? Where is this certainty coming from? He hit 8 total in three years at oregon state

He hit a HR about 2% of his PAs this year including playoffs. What’s 2% of, say, 700 plate attempts?

[greg775]

I've been thinking about this. I know Altuve is the popular exception but cmon we should not expect Madrigal to hit more than 3-5 homers a year. The guy is what, 5-foot-6? 5-7? Not that he has to hit homers to be productive. I mean like somebody said our lineup "should" have enough power to win a couple WS. He better be a good average and on base guy and fielder or he'll be known as a horrific draft pick. He can allegedly do the three things I just mentioned so we should chill. But he's NOT going to hit 15-20 hrs a year, cmon folks. Altuve is a "freak" in a good way.

Edited June 6, 2018 by greg775

[Dick Allen]

41 minutes ago, Lillian said:

This is the most valid point, made so far, in this discussion of Madrigal's hitting skill. I frankly hope that he does not try to elevate balls. That is not his game. His value will be on making contact, using his speed and getting on base. I suspect that his ability to barrel up pitches will diminish somewhat, once he begins to face Major League pitching. Although he rarely strikes out, he also does not walk, as much as he should. At his height, his strike zone is pretty small. He should be able to draw more walks, and I would expect his OBP to be around .400. If he does that, sees a lot of pitches and then provides a legitimate stolen base threat, he could be a fantastic lead off hitter. If anyone can learn to be more patient and learn to draw more walks, it is a guy with his kind of baseball acumen. 

I don’t think you can say he doesn’t walk enough. The goal is to have selective hitters. By his numbers he obviously is swinging at pitches he can handle. Obviously, the higher he goes, the fewer pitches he will see he will be able to hit hard. But the good news is his very low strikeout rate indicates he doesn’t swing at many bad pitches. 

This is the type of guy the White Sox have rarely had in their organization.  I can’t wait to see his development. I doubt he will have much trouble in the minors.

[greg775]

1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

I don’t think you can say he doesn’t walk enough. The goal is to have selective hitters. By his numbers he obviously is swinging at pitches he can handle. Obviously, the higher he goes, the fewer pitches he will see he will be able to hit hard. But the good news is his very low strikeout rate indicates he doesn’t swing at many bad pitches. 

This is the type of guy the White Sox have rarely had in their organization.  I can’t wait to see his development. I doubt he will have much trouble in the minors.

Would somebody sent a memory eraser to Lawrence, Ks., please, so I can forget the name, Harry Chappas? Thank u.

[BlackSox13]

Amazing how some are focused on the one thing Madrigal lacks and completely ignore the other things he excels in. For some, the Sox can't do anything right.

[Dick Allen]

6 minutes ago, BlackSox13 said:

Amazing how some are focused on the one thing Madrigal lacks and completely ignore the other things he excels in. For some, the Sox can't do anything right.

Especially when the reigning AL MVP is even smaller. Stone said last night in reality the guy might be only 5’4”. not to say NM will be Altuve, because that isn’t fair, it just shows height isn’t all that necessary to be a great player. And everything else except for power is pretty much off the charts. Watching the White Sox offense the past few seasons, and the teams collective baseball IQ over the same time, I cannot understand how a White Sox fan couldn’t be thrilled, and it wasn’t a reach pick.  Chances are if the Sox passed, he would have gone next.

Edited June 6, 2018 by Dick Allen

[BlackSox13]

6 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Especially when the reigning AL MVP is even smaller. Stone said last night in reality the guy might be only 5’4”. not to say NM will be Altuve, because that isn’t fair, it just shows height isn’t all that necessary to be a great player. And everything else except for power is pretty much off the charts.

100% agree. Funny how nobody complained about Pods game when he had literally nopower despite being about 6'. The only tool Pods had better than Madrigal is speed. Every other tool Madrigal has is better, including power. There's just way too much focus on Madrigal's size.

[Jose Abreu]

I love the amount of extrapolation in this thread... 

Multiplying college baseball numbers to a 700 PA sample for an MLB season isn't even close to being predictive, of anything. Madrigal is going to strike out more than 25 times per season and he'll also hit more than 10 home runs per season.  

[Dam8610]

2 hours ago, greg775 said:

I've been thinking about this. I know Altuve is the popular exception but cmon we should not expect Madrigal to hit more than 3-5 homers a year. The guy is what, 5-foot-6? 5-7? Not that he has to hit homers to be productive. I mean like somebody said our lineup "should" have enough power to win a couple WS. He better be a good average and on base guy and fielder or he'll be known as a horrific draft pick. He can allegedly do the three things I just mentioned so we should chill. But he's NOT going to hit 15-20 hrs a year, cmon folks. Altuve is a "freak" in a good way.

Yeah, it's not like guys who are 5'8" or 5'9" could be near the AL lead in HR. Guys like Jose Ramirez and Mookie Betts could never be in the Top 5 in the AL for HR...oh, wait, they are. Maybe this whole "short guys can't hit for power" thing is overblown?

[35thstreetswarm]

3 hours ago, BlackSox13 said:

100% agree. Funny how nobody complained about Pods game when he had literally nopower despite being about 6'. The only tool Pods had better than Madrigal is speed. Every other tool Madrigal has is better, including power. There's just way too much focus on Madrigal's size.

I’ve been reading complaints on this board for over a decade about plodding, station-to-station softball players, the need for the Sox to finally find some “baseball players”, emphasize up-the-middle defense, speed, etc.  A little disorienting, after seeing the Sox finally draft a player who embodies everything the organization has deemphasized to its great detriment since 2005, to read that power is really all that matters.  

[greg775]

12 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

I’ve been reading complaints on this board for over a decade about plodding, station-to-station softball players, the need for the Sox to finally find some “baseball players”, emphasize up-the-middle defense, speed, etc.  A little disorienting, after seeing the Sox finally draft a player who embodies everything the organization has deemphasized to its great detriment since 2005, to read that power is really all that matters.  

The positive is that Anderson and Moncada are very very fast and fun to watch run. And Madrigal is fast, yes, so it's nice to have some speed; now we need some defense.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

I’ve been reading complaints on this board for over a decade about plodding, station-to-station softball players, the need for the Sox to finally find some “baseball players”, emphasize up-the-middle defense, speed, etc.  A little disorienting, after seeing the Sox finally draft a player who embodies everything the organization has deemphasized to its great detriment since 2005, to read that power is really all that matters.  

Just have to keep in mind that there are a lot of posters here all with different opinions on talent and baseball in general. I think I know baseball pretty well but I find myself at odds many times over different things and how the game is played now. I try really hard not to be stuck in the past about how to value players  but it does seem like the Rod Carew type of player is not appreciated much anymore and it'll take some time for everyone to come around on Madrigal if it happens at all since he has a long way to go .

 

I'm a big believer in his hitting tool set and then you throw in his defense, his base running, his baseball IQ, work ethic and leadership and there's a good chance everyone will end up liking the kid a whole lot.

[caulfield12]

5 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

Especially when the reigning AL MVP is even smaller. Stone said last night in reality the guy might be only 5’4”. not to say NM will be Altuve, because that isn’t fair, it just shows height isn’t all that necessary to be a great player. And everything else except for power is pretty much off the charts. Watching the White Sox offense the past few seasons, and the teams collective baseball IQ over the same time, I cannot understand how a White Sox fan couldn’t be thrilled, and it wasn’t a reach pick.  Chances are if the Sox passed, he would have gone next.

His OSU coach said the Reds were set to take him (over India) had the pick gone past the Sox...

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Just have to keep in mind that there are a lot of posters here all with different opinions on talent and baseball in general. I think I know baseball pretty well but I find myself at odds many times over different things and how the game is played now. I try really hard not to be stuck in the past about how to value players  but it does seem like the Rod Carew type of player is not appreciated much anymore and it'll take some time for everyone to come around on Madrigal if it happens at all since he has a long way to go .

 

I'm a big believer in his hitting tool set and then you throw in his defense, his base running, his baseball IQ, work ethic and leadership and there's a good chance everyone will end up liking the kid a whole lot.

Yeah, pure hitters like Ichiro, Olerud, Boggs and Gwynn really stand out over the last couple of generations of players.   Biggio is another good comparison.   The first name that came to my mind was Tommy Herr, athough Madrigal's much faster.   Mauer, too.

Edited June 7, 2018 by caulfield12

[fathom]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

His OSU coach said the Reds were set to take him (over India) had the pick gone past the Sox...

Speaking of stuff that has come out after the draft, kiley today said numerous teams in 6-15 range had zero interest in Singer.

[caulfield12]

Waiting for Hostetler to list a number of those low-risk/high-reward pitchers in the Rounds #11-15 range as all potentially having first round stuff/closer potential...

[southsider2k5]

Just now, caulfield12 said:

Waiting for Hostetler to list a number of those low-risk/high-reward pitchers in the Rounds #11-15 range as all potentially having first round stuff/closer potential...

A scouting director talking up his players? NOOOOOOO!

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

A scouting director talking up his players? NOOOOOOO!

I LOVE Hostetler.

It's Buddy Bell that I couldn't stand...well, I think that's a pretty universally-shared opinion of all but a few around here, at least the last 2-3 years he was hanging around.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

8 hours ago, soxfan49 said:

Maybe Madrigal crushes it in the minors and is a big piece of a trade that nets the Sox a guy like Arenado down the road.

I know you said "like" Arenado but who else is like him ? Maybe the Sox just buy Arenado since he'll be a FA soon enough  anyway.