Passan analyzes 2018-19 FA class, Harper vs. Machado

[Balta1701]

4 hours ago, fathom said:

Hahn spent all offseason saving the Sox would be way more aggressive in the offseason after 2018.  Well after 60 games of awful play, he seemed way less confident on Mully and Hanley today that the Sox would be aggressive after the season.

Then he needs to be aggressively job hunting.

[Chicago White Sox]

On 6/5/2018 at 11:07 AM, southsider2k5 said:

Front load AND and opt out?  That is an awful deal.  If you are going to load a contract with an opt, it needs to be in the back end to give the player an incentive to stay, and not to  leave.  Besides our window is only going to be opening during that time frame.

Then you won’t be getting these guys.  The extra years are simply insurance policies if shit goes wrong for them.  These guys want to get a haul in the short-term and then hit free agency as 29/30 year olds for another big day.  Unfortunately, that’s reality of today’s market.

[Replacement Level Poster]

I would love for the Sox to get Machado or Harper. I just think that’s a reach at this point. It’s like applying to a dream job for which your only marginally qualified or getting a date with the prettiest woman you’ve ever seen-worth a shot, but not likely to go your way. Regardless of what Hahn said about the franchise being aggressive the sox have no history of awarding these types of contracts. The sox are not yet at a competitive point to appeal to either guy.  These guys aren’t Buehrle or Konerko there going to be looking to maximize their market value.

The sox more realistically are probably more likely to succeed at Michael Brantley, AJ Pollock, one of the closers due to their injury histories. Even so that will probably be an overpay. Which I’m fine with. Free agency entails a lot of risk. Your giving significant contracts to players the other side of 30, and hoping they don’t physically fall off a cliff. 

The 2020 free agent classs also has some guys that could help the team out at that point as well. Though that class seems pitcher heavy, Sale, Gerrit Cole, Verlander who has rediscovered the fountain of youth, and Cole Hamels to a lesser degree.

[GGajewski18]

Kimbrel, Moustakas, and Kuechel for me if we can't get Machado or Harper

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

18 hours ago, fathom said:

Hahn spent all offseason saving the Sox would be way more aggressive in the offseason after 2018.  Well after 60 games of awful play, he seemed way less confident on Mully and Hanley today that the Sox would be aggressive after the season.

Maybe want to provide some direct quotes or a link to the conversation ? If what you just said is true and the tape backs you up then that's headline news around here and worthy of its own thread. I know there could be multiple seasons in a row where the Sox hit the FA market but the 1st one is critical. Can't wait til any after that because it just limits the teams options.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Maybe want to provide some direct quotes or a link to the conversation ? If what you just said is true and the tape backs you up then that's headline news around here and worthy of its own thread. I know there could be multiple seasons in a row where the Sox hit the FA market but the 1st one is critical. Can't wait til any after that because it just limits the teams options.

https://670thescore.radio.com/media/audio-channel/mully-hanley-jason-mcleod-brad-biggs-rick-hahn-interviews-hour-4

Roughly 25 min mark...35 mins addresses FA possibilities. Seems Fathom overreacted a bit here. Typical Hahnspeak

If anything, while the record is worse than most predicted, the key parts of the rebuild are all acquitting themselves well.  Rodon’s back.  

We can’t say that Giolito/Fulmer and now Moncada struggling should keep them from investing wisely beginning this offseason...any more than we should count on Lopez, Fry, Davidson, SANCHEZ, Covey and Palka.  

To me, Anderson solidifying his spot might be the most important development of all so far.  Not to mention 6-8 “impact arrivals” from the minor leagues between now and 2020.  We can’t afford to wait back until after 2019 and suddenly hope to compete without laying part of the foundation in this year’s class.

Edited June 9, 2018 by caulfield12

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

You're right, nothing to see there. Typical we'll analyze it when the time comes, Can't say now if there's any one particular player we are going after etc etc.

[fathom]

6 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

You're right, nothing to see there. Typical we'll analyze it when the time comes, Can't say now if there's any one particular player we are going after etc etc.

Just compare it to what he was saying coming into the season, where he told Sox fans this was the last offseason(that just ended) where they would be so quiet.

[spiderman]

On 6/5/2018 at 5:22 AM, glangon said:

Bust the bank. Get Machado and Harper, we have the payroll to do this. Blow up the FA market.

They need to see progress in their young talent this season. Plenty of time for that though. They have been playing better over the last 20 or so games and I expect it to continue with more talent on the way. If they finish the year with optimism around the young core, I fully expect the White Sox to make a major play at one of these free agents. They are going to have very low money on the payroll heading into next season. They could pay either of these guys $30-35 a season and give them another shot at free agency (whatever the free agent would prefer).

[spiderman]

9 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

https://670thescore.radio.com/media/audio-channel/mully-hanley-jason-mcleod-brad-biggs-rick-hahn-interviews-hour-4

Roughly 25 min mark...35 mins addresses FA possibilities. Seems Fathom overreacted a bit here. Typical Hahnspeak

If anything, while the record is worse than most predicted, the ?key parts of the rebuild are all acquitting themselves well.  Rodon’s back.  

We can’t say that Giolito/Fulmer and now Moncada struggling should keep them from investing wisely beginning this offseason...any more than we should count on Lopez, Fry, Davidson, SANCHEZ, Covey and Palka.  

To me, Anderson solidifying his spot might be the most important development of all so far.  Not to mention 6-8 “impact arrivals” from the minor leagues between now and 2020.  We can’t afford to wait back until after 2019 and suddenly hope to compete without laying part of the foundation in this year’s class.

Is Anderson solidifying his spot?

Why can't the struggles of their younger players keep them from investing in free agency? I think it should. There's no reason to dive into free agency if the team isn't in position to contend next year (or year after), which is based on the progress of the younger talent.

Is Moncada a good player? I'm concerned.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

12 hours ago, fathom said:

Just compare it to what he was saying coming into the season, where he told Sox fans this was the last offseason(that just ended) where they would be so quiet.

It most likely will be the last season of being so quiet. There's a lot of big names out there  the next 2 off seasons and Sox have a low payroll . The money is there to spend. Outside of repeating himself he can't really say much else. Sure don't want to be accused of tampering by mentioning a specific player.

I really think you're just reading more into it than is there.

[pcq]

Had no idea the Sox are looking for SP's. I do not see the value in what investment is required for Macho and Harpo. Southside would not be their likely choice. 

[Balta1701]

16 minutes ago, pcq said:

Had no idea the Sox are looking for SP's. I do not see the value in what investment is required for Macho and Harpo. Southside would not be their likely choice. 

The White Sox should not be looking for SPs in the 2019 free agent market, IMO.

[maggsmaggs]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The White Sox should not be looking for SPs in the 2019 free agent market, IMO.

If they can find value, I would be all for it. Something like the Cubs approach with Tyler Chatwood. Now granted that has not worked out, but I would not be opposed to a deal like that for someone the team identifies as a burgeoning talent. 

[Balta1701]

Just now, maggsmaggs said:

If they can find value, I would be all for it. Something like the Cubs approach with Tyler Chatwood. Now granted that has not worked out, but I would not be opposed to a deal like that for someone the team identifies as a burgeoning talent. 

Rodon, Covey, Kopech, Lopez, Hansen, Giolito, Fulmer, Stephens - there are so many arms there already who could make appearances, and i still expect a couple guys from the end of that list to break out eventually. Maybe I could be talked into a 1 year deal guy if Hansen and Rodon continue to have health issues, but not for a big splash. There's better places to spend money.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Rodon, Covey, Kopech, Lopez, Hansen, Giolito, Fulmer, Stephens - there are so many arms there already who could make appearances, and i still expect a couple guys from the end of that list to break out eventually. Maybe I could be talked into a 1 year deal guy if Hansen and Rodon continue to have health issues, but not for a big splash. There's better places to spend money.

100% agree.  Got to give the young guys chances in 2019.  Right now, we’re looking at a rotation of Rodon, Lopez, Kopech, and two of Giolito, Covey, & Stephens to start the season.  We’ll also have Dunning knocking at the door and hopefully Hansen not too far behind him.  Let’s not block these kids.  Now maybe come 2020 we decide to add an arm in things don’t go as planned, but absolutely no reason to jump the gun here.

[Flash]

11 hours ago, spiderman said:

Is Anderson solidifying his spot?

Why can't the struggles of their younger players keep them from investing in free agency? I think it should. There's no reason to dive into free agency if the team isn't in position to contend next year (or year after), which is based on the progress of the younger talent.

Is Moncada a good player? I'm concerned.

Fair questions re: Anderson and Moncada. I am also concerned. WAR proponants will probably disagree but I'm not sold on either. Ultimately, Moncada needs to move to 3rd to make room for Madrigal. We also need a 1st baseman (ideally LH) who can prevent errors, not create them (Abreu should DH if not traded) and a catcher who can influence ball and strike calls. We have some excellent young pitchers rising through the ranks but it will be disheartening to them if we can't make routine plays behind them. There is a reason the Padres paid up for Hosmer to anchor an otherwise young IF and pitching staff. Its time we start focussing a bit more on defense, especially up the middle and first base.

[spiderman]

How fast is Madrigal expected to reach the majors and is he SS? I've heard CF mentioned more often for Moncada than 3B, but either way, its a bit concerning that MLB's #1 prospect does not look like a difference maker. It's early though and I'm not giving up on him. Anderson, in my opinion, is not a difference maker and will never be a plus player at SS. 

I do have an issue with making a Hosmer type investment IF this team isn't ready to contend. 

 

 

[glangon]

On ‎6‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 4:18 AM, spiderman said:

They need to see progress in their young talent this season. Plenty of time for that though. They have been playing better over the last 20 or so games and I expect it to continue with more talent on the way. If they finish the year with optimism around the young core, I fully expect the White Sox to make a major play at one of these free agents. They are going to have very low money on the payroll heading into next season. They could pay either of these guys $30-35 a season and give them another shot at free agency (whatever the free agent would prefer).

I get that but bringing in young players to supplement the rebuild has to be done at some point. There is a glaring need in the outfield (I know that Eloy, Robert, Adolfo and Rutherford are coming through but what happens if they turn into another Tank. Prospects are not guaranteed, Harper is and with our payroll, we should be going for it with him and Machado. I get that we need pitching but it is not often that two superstars become available at once on the Free Agent Market and both at a time when the Sox have the lowest payroll in baseball.

[caulfield12]

17 hours ago, spiderman said:

How fast is Madrigal expected to reach the majors and is he SS? I've heard CF mentioned more often for Moncada than 3B, but either way, its a bit concerning that MLB's #1 prospect does not look like a difference maker. It's early though and I'm not giving up on him. Anderson, in my opinion, is not a difference maker and will never be a plus player at SS. 

I do have an issue with making a Hosmer type investment IF this team isn't ready to contend. 

 

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=190&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

12/27 for Anderson at SS (qualified)

Moncada is 9/25 but has slipped almost 200 OPS points since April 26th...if you believe he’s going to stay at a 728 OPS and never will be a 900 OPS player again based on his performance since coming back from injury, well the reality is he’s not as good as late April (at least not yet) and he’s not as bad as the last thee weeks, either.   The midpoint between those two ranges is around 825.  He’s also made two costly errors in the last week, and been the victim of some of the worst strike zone calls since the umpires’ union was organized.   That said, other than the bomb against Minny the first game of the DH, he hasn’t been hitting much...or for power.   He has also fallen from 1.6 fWAR all the way down to 1.2.

[wrathofhahn]

On 6/10/2018 at 8:40 AM, Balta1701 said:

The White Sox should not be looking for SPs in the 2019 free agent market, IMO.

We need to be trading for pitching prospects 1-2 years a way. Right now we have two big holes starters and middle infielders. We sort of got better in that with Madrigal.

As far Harper and Machado goes we should have zero interest. This team isn't ready. We can't start the clock without knowing what we have from an internal standpoint.

This rebuild could take 3 years, 4 years, even 5 years. Astros took 4 I believe the Cubs took three. We are in year two. You sign Machado you are essentially wasting what 60 million (two years) if you are assuming the contention is 2020.

I honestly don't get the obsession for the two players look at the Orioles they are terrible with him. He's not going to single handily lift us to the playoffs. We don't have a starting rotation. We don't have an outfield. We probably won't have a bullpen after this deadline. Signing Machado or Harper is stupid sauce.

Edited June 11, 2018 by wrathofhahn

[caulfield12]

We have 2/5th’s of a starting rotation with Rodon and Lopez.

Everything else is up the air.  That said, you can’t go out and bring in the White Sox version of Jon Lester until you get a much better reading on Covey, Giolito, Stephens, Kopech, Dunning, Hansen and Cease first.

The thing we have to remember is that with starters going shorter and shorter in terms of innings pitched/total pitches, their value in the marketplace will fall by 10-15%, especially for the non-marquee guys, the ones you fill in the last 3 spots in the rotation.  With our budget, we’re looking for a solid 2/3 guy, what Floyd and Danks were before they were beset by injuries.   Overpaying for an ace’s past performance usually backfires, especially in the FA market.

 

Maybe the best acquisition of the offseason (so far) was Mike Mikolas out of complete obscurity in Japan.

https://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/cardinals-mikolas-learned-value-of-quick-outs-in-japan/article_87efa812-e076-5aae-b2a2-7a9ced3862ed.html

What is he doing differently?  Something seemingly quite simple, pitching to contact with two strikes (not unlike the Pirates’ philosophy of going to shifts, two seam sinkers/pitching to contact AND a renewed emphasis on pitch framing.

[southsider2k5]

5 hours ago, glangon said:

I get that but bringing in young players to supplement the rebuild has to be done at some point. There is a glaring need in the outfield (I know that Eloy, Robert, Adolfo and Rutherford are coming through but what happens if they turn into another Tank. Prospects are not guaranteed, Harper is and with our payroll, we should be going for it with him and Machado. I get that we need pitching but it is not often that two superstars become available at once on the Free Agent Market and both at a time when the Sox have the lowest payroll in baseball.

If all of our OF's fail that badly, there is no need to sign free agents because this rebuild is screwed.

[steveno89]

On 6/8/2018 at 4:34 PM, fathom said:

Hahn spent all offseason saving the Sox would be way more aggressive in the offseason after 2018.  Well after 60 games of awful play, he seemed way less confident on Mully and Hanley today that the Sox would be aggressive after the season.

In fairness to Hahn, most of the big time free agents to be after this season have been pretty bad

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2018/06/11/mlb-free-agents-class-2018-bryce-harper-manny-machado/690691002/

This does not inspire me to spend like a drunk sailor^

[steveno89]

On 6/10/2018 at 7:40 AM, Balta1701 said:

The White Sox should not be looking for SPs in the 2019 free agent market, IMO.

Keuchel has not had a very good season in front of what was expected to be a big pay day for him. I'd be concerned about him getting hit pretty hard and the strikeouts being down as well. Can he bounce back? Sure, but not a great sign for a player on the wrong side of 30 wanting big $$$$ and years.