2018-2019 Official NBA thread

[Soxbadger]

My only issue with all the trade up plans, is that the Bulls arent anywhere close to being competitive. I think they are likely a bottom 10 team next year. And if they play their cards right, they could be a bottom 5. I want more chances at top 5 picks, not less. I think the Bulls need to be bad for another 2 years. This means trying to sign/trade Lavine and moving every other player on the team besides for Lauri/Carter.

I like the Lauri/Carter duo, I think if you get 2 top 10 picks from being bad + some other teams 1st rounders by taking bad contracts etc, you are looking pretty good when 2021 FA class hits.

That is the Bulls hope 2021 with AD, Giannis etc. Golden State will be older, Houston's window will be shut, Lebron may still be around but he wont be carrying teams.

I know its hard to trust the Bulls FO, and believe me I dont for a second. But moving the next years Bulls first, would just get them in more NBA hell. Because they arent going to eb super creative. At least with the tank until 2021, its pretty straight forward and something I think they can do.

The first step is to get rid of Lavine. If they dont then you basically have to hope that a player on the roster becomes a super star.

(edit)

You could move the FA timetable up 1 year and go for Irving/Leonard, but Im just not as enthused about them.

Edited June 22, 2018 by Soxbadger

[bmags]

Just now, Soxbadger said:

My only issue with all the trade up plans, is that the Bulls arent anywhere close to being competitive. I think they are likely a bottom 10 team next year. And if they play their cards right, they could be a bottom 5. I want more chances at top 5 picks, not less. I think the Bulls need to be bad for another 2 years. This means trying to sign/trade Lavine and moving every other player on the team besides for Lauri/Carter.

I like the Lauri/Carter duo, I think if you get 2 top 10 picks from being bad + some other teams 1st rounders by taking bad contracts etc, you are looking pretty good when 2021 FA class hits.

That is the Bulls hope 2021 with AD, Giannis etc. Golden State will be older, Houston's window will be shut, Lebron may still be around but he wont be carrying teams.

I know its hard to trust the Bulls FO, and believe me I dont for a second. But moving the next years Bulls first, would just get them in more NBA hell. Because they arent going to eb super creative. At least with the tank until 2021, its pretty straight forward and something I think they can do.

The first step is to get rid of Lavine. If they dont then you basically have to hope that a player on the roster becomes a super star.

The benefit to trading future value for current is the certainty of who you get, but it requires certainty Doncic becomes a star and not a mediocre guard. I believe Doncic is better than what the typical years top 3 draft pick offers, and so getting him is better than the potential get next year.

[Soxbadger]

Just now, bmags said:

The benefit to trading future value for current is the certainty of who you get, but it requires certainty Doncic becomes a star and not a mediocre guard. I believe Doncic is better than what the typical years top 3 draft pick offers, and so getting him is better than the potential get next year.

I think you need to hit on this draft and 1 of the next 2. Also next years class is much more guard/SF heavy, so there may be some really interesting guys in the top 10.

The reality is, it doesnt even seem like the Bulls like/wanted Doncic. From everything I read they wanted Bagley if they traded up. 

[Steve9347]

I wonder how much better we can expect to be. We won't have Niko playing like prime Dirk for a two month stretch, so hopefully the Bulls can be top 5 next year and land a superstar.

Insert Superstar + WC + Lauri might get us to the second round of the playoffs someday.

 

Fuck the Bulls.

[bmags]

1 minute ago, Steve9347 said:

I wonder how much better we can expect to be. We won't have Niko playing like prime Dirk for a two month stretch, so hopefully the Bulls can be top 5 next year and land a superstar.

Insert Superstar + WC + Lauri might get us to the second round of the playoffs someday.

 

Fuck the Bulls.

I'm also wondering at what point they give Hoiberg a roster that isn't fighting against the basic elements of his system.

[Soxbadger]

Just now, bmags said:

I'm also wondering at what point they give Hoiberg a roster that isn't fighting against the basic elements of his system.

Hopefully not for 2 years because we need those losses. 

[Steve9347]

Hopefully they just fire Hoiberg and GarPax and bring in some people who know what the hell they're doing.

[Chisoxfn]

4 hours ago, dasox24 said:

I was slightly encouraged to see that quote.  I, too, hope that means they're planning on tanking again.  Of course, with the changes to the lottery in 2019, full tank-mode doesn't help quite as much as it used to.  But I'll take whatever we can get.

They aren't "tanking" persay, but they aren't going to be that good.  And lottery odds are much different anyway. Decent size shift (downward) related to the odds of the worst 5 or 6 teams.  I think the price Dallas paid was steep. Obviously they got there guy and are happy but I still think we are in that asset accumulation phase.

I also just need to make my point...welp back to NBA hell. Stupidest phrase on the planet. So sick of that crap.  I will never endorse a franchise that wants to run a model like the Sixers (suck forever and forever until maybe you get lucky and have a few year run, no thanks).  I'd rather employ a Rockets like strategy of be as damn good as you can each and every year and be creative in how you take big swings and retool over time.  

The reality is, unless you are lucky enough to have one of the top player in the world, you are probably not regularly playing and/or winning championships. Just look back over history. Either we get ridiculously lucky and get the next #1 player via the draft or we draft just really well and have a quality team and hope you can lure major free agents to push you over the topic. All strategies are unlikely but you try to be as good as you can be to enable the best free agent push possible. The reality is there is usually just one team in the league that truly "wins" the big FA signing/crop so everyone else loses.  

[Steve9347]

2 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

I'd rather employ a Rockets like strategy of be as damn good as you can each and every year and be creative in how you take big swings and retool over time. 

The Rockets aggressively acquired one of the best young assets in the game when he wasn't on the market. The Bulls will never be able to do this. They lack creativity and certainly lack the willingness to roll the dice.

[Soxbadger]

Also worth noting, the Lakers had top #2 picks 3 years in a row and came away with D'Angelo Russell, Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball. Their entire rebuild is still based on convincing at least 2 stars to come play for them if they want to be serious title contenders.

[almagest]

11 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

They aren't "tanking" persay, but they aren't going to be that good.  And lottery odds are much different anyway. Decent size shift (downward) related to the odds of the worst 5 or 6 teams.  I think the price Dallas paid was steep. Obviously they got there guy and are happy but I still think we are in that asset accumulation phase.

I also just need to make my point...welp back to NBA hell. Stupidest phrase on the planet. So sick of that crap.  I will never endorse a franchise that wants to run a model like the Sixers (suck forever and forever until maybe you get lucky and have a few year run, no thanks).  I'd rather employ a Rockets like strategy of be as damn good as you can each and every year and be creative in how you take big swings and retool over time.  

The reality is, unless you are lucky enough to have one of the top player in the world, you are probably not regularly playing and/or winning championships. Just look back over history. Either we get ridiculously lucky and get the next #1 player via the draft or we draft just really well and have a quality team and hope you can lure major free agents to push you over the topic. All strategies are unlikely but you try to be as good as you can be to enable the best free agent push possible. The reality is there is usually just one team in the league that truly "wins" the big FA signing/crop so everyone else loses.  

I don't disagree with any of this in theory, but the Bulls have never shown the ability to attract big free agents, nor have they packaged assets to trade for a young star (like the Rockets). It's really unlikely that will change now.

It seems like the best bet now is to see what a sign & trade of Lavine gets you, see if you can get anything for Lopez and/or Portis, and maybe acquire a bad contract in exchange for future first rounder(s). Get a top 10 pick next year and build a young core that way. See if that makes you attractive enough for a free agent or two or if you can trade some of Dunn/Markkanen/WCJ/Portis/2019 pick for a star.

I don't see any of the above happening though, so that's why I think the Bulls are in NBA hell.

Edited June 22, 2018 by almagest

[bmags]

6 minutes ago, Soxbadger said:

Also worth noting, the Lakers had top #2 picks 3 years in a row and came away with D'Angelo Russell, Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball. Their entire rebuild is still based on convincing at least 2 stars to come play for them if they want to be serious title contenders.

I think this also is why I support what the Mavs did. A lot of drafts have these "Well they are the best player this year" guys, if you think Doncic is a different level go get him. It's NOT like trading a draft pick for a veteran, they'll get Doncic on rookie level pricing and will get all of the advantages of that.

[Jenksismyhero]

Isn't next year's draft pretty meh compared to this year? This one has 5-6 high level prospects. Next year is pretty weak in comparison. Zion Williamson and who else?

After reading more this morning I'm ok with the two picks. Sounds like the Bulls tried to move up but couldn't find a deal. Can't really say if that's on the Bulls or the other teams because we don't know what was offered/demanded. 

Even if they do get superstar talent at some point, you need quality players. I think Carter, for as boring and safe as it was, is just that. He'll be a solid starter. Someone who isn't going to blow you away but probably isn't someone you're embarrassed to play starter minutes. 

 

Edited June 22, 2018 by Jenksismyhero

[bmags]

Also relevant to this all:

 

 

[Jenksismyhero]

Pretty smart IMO. If he demands a ton, let him go. If not, you'll get a good player at a reasonable price. 

[Soxbadger]

4 minutes ago, Jenksismyhero said:

Isn't next year's draft pretty meh compared to this year? This one has 5-6 high level prospects. Next year is pretty weak in comparison. Zion Williamson and who else?

After reading more this morning I'm ok with the two picks. Sounds like the Bulls tried to move up but couldn't find a deal. Can't really say if that's on the Bulls or the other teams because we don't know what was offered/demanded. 

Even if they do get superstar talent at some point, you need quality players. I think Carter, for as boring and safe as it was, is just that. He'll be a solid starter. Someone who isn't going to blow you away but probably isn't someone you're embarrassed to have play starter minutes. 

 

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2019-nba-draft-way-too-early-lottery-predictions-for-next-year-headlined-by-three-duke-freshmen/

 

That site has Zion as 13. And this draft had arguably 3 higher tier prospects, Ayton, Bagley and Doncic (depending on your feelings). Carter, Young, Bamba, Jackson are all in the same tier for me. 

[SoxAce]

12 minutes ago, Jenksismyhero said:

Isn't next year's draft pretty meh compared to this year? This one has 5-6 high level prospects. Next year is pretty weak in comparison. Zion Williamson and who else?

 

R.J. Barrett (although I like Cameron Reddish more as a prospect). 

Edited June 22, 2018 by SoxAce

[bmags]

I do think Lavine will be valuable when he realizes his limitations, but I don't want to pay a max deal for a jr smith/jamal crawford type.

[Soxbadger]

1 minute ago, SoxAce said:

R.J. Barrett.

Yep he right now he is 1 for most. 

 

https://www.si.com/nba/2018/05/11/nba-draft-2019-prospect-rankings-rj-barrett-zion-williamson

 

This one has Barrett 1,Reddish 2 and Zion as 3. But for the Bulls purposes of needing wing/guard next year draft is pretty ideal. Next year is kind of weak on centers, which is why Ayton, Bamba, Carter was such a rarity. 

[southsider2k5]

For all of the teams that seemed to be willing to give away first round picks for various reasons, I just don't believe that the Bulls weren't willing to take part in some of these deals.  It is so freaking frustrating.

[Soxbadger]

13 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

For all of the teams that seemed to be willing to give away first round picks for various reasons, I just don't believe that the Bulls weren't willing to take part in some of these deals.  It is so freaking frustrating.

Correct me if Im wrong, but none of those alleged trades materialized at all. Nuggest didnt trade away their first for bad contract, Griz didnt trade Parsons. I think all those rumors were just fairy tales being leaked by teams hoping to to make something like that happen. 

The only thing that did happen was the Hawks moved down. The other problem is it seems the Bulls wanted Bagley and the Hawks made the trade while  Suns were picking. 

[Quin]

Didn't know this about Carter last year. Kid had a '39 inch vert in an attempt:

https://247sports.com/college/duke/Bolt/Duke-Blue-Devils-Basketball-Wendell-Carter-vertical-leap-70388030/

[southsider2k5]

An interesting name to track going forward will be Brian Bowen.  He was on the same team as Jackson Jr at LaLumiere in high school, and some even thought was a better player than him early in their HS careers. He got caught up in the bribery shoe money scandal, and was drummed out of Louisville.  He had enrolled at South Carolina, but was ruled ineligible by the NCAA so he declared for the draft without having played a second of college ball.  He went undrafted last night, and I would love to see the Bulls try to bring him in to camp.

[dasox24]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

Also relevant to this all:

 

 

This is good to see.  Smart to let it play out and see what he can get on the open market.

[thxfrthmmrs]

3 hours ago, bmags said:

I do think there is a good case to be made that drafting the best player you think exists in the hopes of compiling assets to have ready to trade out when a team is being forced to trade a star or is ready to offload a top draft pick is equally fine in order to get the stars needed to compete.

The thing that obviously undercuts it is our front office is unlikely to operate this way and is more likely just to fall in love with some good not great players who try hard (cough taj gibson). Evidence of this exists in their not investing into a larger scouting and analytics department when they decided to rebuild, it is in fact one of the smallest depts in the league. If they were planning on finding value whereever it exists, you'd want a system to do that. The bulls do not have it.

I'm sympathetic to the view that Carter was a good pick, will be good, but also this is a bad sign of things to come. They kept Robin Lopez thinking his value could be turned into something, it didn't, his value to the bulls on play time directly undercut their value in the draft. Same with Niko, they made a bet it would work out in their favor, I do not expect it to.

In my alternate reality, we traded future assets to get Doncic, whom I think will be a star. We sign Clint Capela to pair next to Lauri. Try and find a better PG fit for the pace. We roll with this core and try to find consistently more 3pt shooting and develop a 3rd star.

Capela is RFA, i would "overpay" in hoping Rockets view lack of flexibility as too big of an issue. Or, you drafted Robert Williams as C at 22 and try to trade him to them later.

That is a future I have confidence in. This one, still have zero clue. 

 

2 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

I agree. My issue isn't Carter. He's a fine player, but I don't see NBA finals because of him. They needed to do what they could do to move up. Just staying where they were, they did what anyone would do with 7. If the Porter medicals were bad, and they must have been if so many teams passed, then they have to take Carter, or trade it. They seem to think they can develop players into stars because of Jimmy Butler. If they really were that good at it, they wouldn't be in this situation. Maybe they get lucky and a star FA signs with them eventually. I will not be holding my breath.

These two posts greatly sums my issue and frustration with this front office. Doncic was my #1 option, but I also rather have the 4 high ceiling high bust wing players drafted after Carter, or even trade out of this draft to build future assets. But the FO is ok with just drafting safe players in hope of developing the next Jimmy Butler or Taj Gibson. We don't have much to show for in terms of future asset and the current core of this team is pretty low in ceiling as well.

Honestly this reminds me of when Sox  were not willing to take high risk/high reward players in draft, not willing to spend internationally or invest in analytics department. Maybe the Bulls will eventually follow suit once they see success from the Sixers or Suns rebuild.