2018-2019 Official NBA thread

[Brian]

I don't think anyone will take Dunn to let us move up. Just a hunch

[bmags]

3 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Bulls are supposedly extremely high on him (as are the Hawks).  Lots of info out there though so who knows.  Team could dangle Dunn plus 7 to move up a couple spots and Hawks have 3 1st rounders that they can play with to move around.  

I like him. I again am very nervous about trade ups. However, if all teams feel that way then trade ups may be cheaper than normal. 

But I don't know that I like the trade-off of (hypothetical) Lavine, 7th for Ball, 4th. Though, it is a bit closer as I put it through my head, I admit. If we get brogdon with the extra cash, and then maybe acquire Clint Capela...that'd be an interesting group.

[Jake]

I absolutely hate the idea of trading LaVine for Lonzo Ball. I really do not want to be a fan of a team whose point guard can't play at the end of close games because he can't beat DeAndre Jordan in a free throw shootout. If dumping LaVine's salary is so valuable, then you will be able to do that any time you need. Otherwise you're giving up the more talented and higher upside player and not getting much back.

[Soxbadger]

3 minutes ago, Jake said:

I absolutely hate the idea of trading LaVine for Lonzo Ball. I really do not want to be a fan of a team whose point guard can't play at the end of close games because he can't beat DeAndre Jordan in a free throw shootout. If dumping LaVine's salary is so valuable, then you will be able to do that any time you need. Otherwise you're giving up the more talented and higher upside player and not getting much back.

I agree with this. 

I actually misread the trade and thought it was LaVine for Ball + 4 (meaning no pick swap) and I still wouldnt do it.

[Jake]

2 hours ago, bmags said:

I found this very convincing: 

https://www.thestepien.com/2019/06/05/draft-notes-argument-culver-better-play-rj/

I've gotta say, their prospect rankings are very divergent from the rest of the industry:

1. Zion

2. Culver

3. RJ Barrett

4. Ja Morant

5. Brandon Clarke

6. Jontay Porter

7. Jaxson Hayes

8. Talen Horton-Tucker (!!!)

9. Coby White

10. De'Andre Hunter

and I won't bother copying over the rest. On one hand, props I guess for not just basing your rankings on what everyone else is doing. On the other hand, these are a little wacky.

Edited June 17, 2019 by Jake

[Chisoxfn]

2 hours ago, bmags said:

I like him. I again am very nervous about trade ups. However, if all teams feel that way then trade ups may be cheaper than normal. 

But I don't know that I like the trade-off of (hypothetical) Lavine, 7th for Ball, 4th. Though, it is a bit closer as I put it through my head, I admit. If we get brogdon with the extra cash, and then maybe acquire Clint Capela...that'd be an interesting group.

I'm in your exact camp. Mainly because the price the Bulls pay seems too steap and in general I like Lavine and think he absolutely has upside and that upside is still high. He's made massive strides every year (where he was 100%) in this league and with his work ethic and talent, I'll make that bet (relatively speaking).  In general, I think staying status quo and adding a Brogdon (plus our pick) makes this a playoff team.  Brogdon could be a move that impedes our cap longer term though. Lavine is a contract (barring injury) that I don't see getting in the way (given how much the cap is growing and the strides Lavine made).  

[bmags]

26 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

I'm in your exact camp. Mainly because the price the Bulls pay seems too steap and in general I like Lavine and think he absolutely has upside and that upside is still high. He's made massive strides every year (where he was 100%) in this league and with his work ethic and talent, I'll make that bet (relatively speaking).  In general, I think staying status quo and adding a Brogdon (plus our pick) makes this a playoff team.  Brogdon could be a move that impedes our cap longer term though. Lavine is a contract (barring injury) that I don't see getting in the way (given how much the cap is growing and the strides Lavine made).  

Both Lavine and porter can be dumped as needed and likely get some value back.

[bmags]

1 hour ago, Jake said:

I've gotta say, their prospect rankings are very divergent from the rest of the industry:

1. Zion

2. Culver

3. RJ Barrett

4. Ja Morant

5. Brandon Clarke

6. Jontay Porter

7. Jaxson Hayes

8. Talen Horton-Tucker (!!!)

9. Coby White

10. De'Andre Hunter

and I won't bother copying over the rest. On one hand, props I guess for not just basing your rankings on what everyone else is doing. On the other hand, these are a little wacky.

I’ve seen basically everyone’s lists go all over and this site has done solid work in the past.

[Quin]

5 hours ago, Jake said:

I've gotta say, their prospect rankings are very divergent from the rest of the industry:

1. Zion

2. Culver

3. RJ Barrett

4. Ja Morant

5. Brandon Clarke

6. Jontay Porter

7. Jaxson Hayes

8. Talen Horton-Tucker (!!!)

9. Coby White

10. De'Andre Hunter

and I won't bother copying over the rest. On one hand, props I guess for not just basing your rankings on what everyone else is doing. On the other hand, these are a little wacky.

FYI, it's better to read it like this:

1 - Zion

2 - Culver, Barrett

3 - Morant, Clarke, Porter

4 -Hayes, Horton-Tucker, White, Hunter, Bitadze, Reddish, Williams, Langford, Garland, Washington, Porter, Bol, Jones, Alexander-Walker

The Sepien puts them in the tiers to avoid generic listing for listing purposes. And they were the highest on Porter last year, so I'm assuming they're assuming he's healthy in his career.

[Brian]

I don't see Horton-Tucker in any mocks going in first round. What am I missing?

It'd be awesome cuz he's a Chicago kid but WTF

[bmags]

12 minutes ago, Brian said:

I don't see Horton-Tucker in any mocks going in first round. What am I missing?

It'd be awesome cuz he's a Chicago kid but WTF

Danny Chau has him as 14 overall on the ringer and 17 overall for Jonathan Tjarks.

[Jake]

54 minutes ago, bmags said:

Danny Chau has him as 14 overall on the ringer and 17 overall for Jonathan Tjarks.

What do people see in him? Crazy wingspan, but also shorter than expected, athletic numbers were bad at the combine, and he didn't play very well at ISU after a hot start.

[bmags]

5 minutes ago, Jake said:

What do people see in him? Crazy wingspan, but also shorter than expected, athletic numbers were bad at the combine, and he didn't play very well at ISU after a hot start.

Passing. Length. Youth.

[Jake]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

Passing. Length. Youth.

So to pull a name out of thin air, what would distinguish him from an Ayo Dosunmu (who was almost always lower ranked on draft boards before announcing his return to UIUC)? Or do you think a guy like Ayo would have had helium in this draft as well?

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, Jake said:

So to pull a name out of thin air, what would distinguish him from an Ayo Dosunmu (who was almost always lower ranked on draft boards before announcing his return to UIUC)? Or do you think a guy like Ayo would have had helium in this draft as well?

No idea, but I think the difference between 15th and 35th on a draft board really isn't very significant, but especially this year. Why do some like THT? They see a switchable guard whose body could handle mismatches and would be a plus in the pick and roll nba.

And he's young, so maybe he ends up developing his playmaking ability and you have a role player.

Now, many would swap him with huichimara, and have THT in the 35ish range. He trades huichimaras production in college but worries his processing and sluggishness on D will get him eaten alive in pick and roll defense, negating his developed offense.

The guys really from 11-35 are either productive college players that could get eaten alive in modern defense or a guy that accomplishes one specific thing and you roll the dice and hope he develops others. 

Do I think Ayo could have risen? I don't know, I think some would have him higher and some lower. Some love Jontay Porter, some would point him as undrafted. Depends what happens to a team in charge. I think Ayo would be a 2nd rounder, and more than likely THT will be a 2nd rounder.

[illinilaw08]

7 minutes ago, Jake said:

So to pull a name out of thin air, what would distinguish him from an Ayo Dosunmu (who was almost always lower ranked on draft boards before announcing his return to UIUC)? Or do you think a guy like Ayo would have had helium in this draft as well?

I think that it's a relatively weak draft so a team can talk themselves into THT's measurables.  You see a guy with his wingspan, and you see the potential for an elite, switchable defender who can develop into a solid scorer as well.

The case for Ayo - as somebody who watched him a lot this year - is tougher for me.  I don't think Ayo showed he's a plus passer.  I don't think Ayo showed he could reliably get to the rim/foul line.  I'm not sure Ayo has elite athleticism.  Even in a relatively weak draft, the case for Ayo as a guy in the mid-first round this year was one I just couldn't see.

[Jake]

50 minutes ago, illinilaw08 said:

I think that it's a relatively weak draft so a team can talk themselves into THT's measurables.  You see a guy with his wingspan, and you see the potential for an elite, switchable defender who can develop into a solid scorer as well.

The case for Ayo - as somebody who watched him a lot this year - is tougher for me.  I don't think Ayo showed he's a plus passer.  I don't think Ayo showed he could reliably get to the rim/foul line.  I'm not sure Ayo has elite athleticism.  Even in a relatively weak draft, the case for Ayo as a guy in the mid-first round this year was one I just couldn't see.

I guess my problem with THT is that the measurables are not great. Fantastic length for his height, but his height is very short. His measurables for athleticism were not good and while his bench press (the only way they're measuring strength) was above average, it wasn't great. Maybe it undersells his actual strength, but now we're talking about something that isn't measurable.  Hard for me to conclude THT is a premium athlete or even average for the NBA.

It wouldn't shock me if THT ends up outside shooting better than he did in NCAA last year, but he was not efficient inside the arc and he shot free throws badly. This stuff did not improve in the conference season. But overall, I don't think it's crazy to say his play in college is not exactly an asset for him. I didn't get to see him *that* much, but I'll buy that he was a really strong defender. But I worry that his size becomes much more problematic in the NBA. Who does he guard on the Bulls? LaVine? Might get burned but maybe he could use his strength. Probably wouldn't capitalize on the strength mismatch on the other end given his poor inside scoring.

 

Anyway, I also felt that Ayo is not yet a good NBA prospect and thought he'd regret it if he declared. He has a height, but perhaps not length, advantage over THT but is of course smaller. I'm not sure how Ayo would look on the athleticism drills, which is part of the reason I thought it was a bad risk to go the combine (which he didn't do). He was mostly a below the rim player, at least offensively, although he did show some flashes of really athletic defensive plays that would surprise me.

Whether Ayo is a strong passer or not isn't clear. He gets some assists, makes some impressive passes. He's the first Illini PG to sometimes hit the roll man on the pick and roll in quite a while, but that's a low bar. I definitely don't think I'd count passing among his negatives, that's for sure. Sharing the court with 2 other PGs complicates things. What Ayo would be able to sell, though, is his overall production, at least offensively. Especially since he started disappearing at times late in the season, he'll still benefit from another year in college. Of course, it'll be somewhat hard to evaluate because the Illini had an extremely difficult schedule last season and chances are it won't be quite so bad this year.

 

In terms of college production, when you look at the box plus-minus oriented statistics, THT and Ayo are kind of mirror images of each other. THT not much on offense, but added a lot on D. Ayo not much on D, but added a lot offensively. I worry that THT's D won't translate due to his athleticism. Others would rightly be worried that Ayo's offense wouldn't translate (besides outside shooting) due to his athleticism/size. I wouldn't want the Bulls drafting either one of them, although in a 2nd round situation maybe you just don't care since those guys are so often fatally flawed.

[Heads22]

I mean, I know someone who watched every single THT game in college...

His shot has a ways to go. He was so incredibly streaky behind the arc. He was a much more effective offensive player when he realized there aren't a lot of guys that could stay in front of him. He doesn't strike me as a first round pick, but I've seen him in some mocks land there. He certainly has the ability to defend but he certainly didn't show that trait off to where he was a defensive stopper or anything, though he wasn't really asked to be in that role. He was incredibly physically unique in high school, was somewhat unique in college, but I don't know that he'd be worth a first round pick. Of course, if he learns to shoot (and he's still so young) and figures out how to use his body, he's an NBA player.

[Chisoxfn]

Taj reportedly on Bulls radar. Would be a good vet move presuming price is right. Knows how to win. Him plus Beverly and picks might be the reality. Gives you leadership and steady presence without tying up long term cap space. 

[BigHurt3515]

Would love Taj back as a bench piece. 

[bmags]

11 hours ago, Heads22 said:

I mean, I know someone who watched every single THT game in college...

His shot has a ways to go. He was so incredibly streaky behind the arc. He was a much more effective offensive player when he realized there aren't a lot of guys that could stay in front of him. He doesn't strike me as a first round pick, but I've seen him in some mocks land there. He certainly has the ability to defend but he certainly didn't show that trait off to where he was a defensive stopper or anything, though he wasn't really asked to be in that role. He was incredibly physically unique in high school, was somewhat unique in college, but I don't know that he'd be worth a first round pick. Of course, if he learns to shoot (and he's still so young) and figures out how to use his body, he's an NBA player.

Keep in mind the PnR offense is a much bigger part of the NBA than college so a bit of it is projection that he can fight through screens and handle switches with length.

[Kyyle23]

 

[bmags]

Get it Utah.

Stephan Noh had a great piece on why the Bulls shouldn't trade up, and Cowleys article today made me believe the bulls have only mild interest. I actually wouldn't be surprised if Bulls go Reddish or Hayes tonight, or trade back.

[Jake]

If you could have Taj or RoLo at the same price (probably not realistic), who are you going with?

[Chisoxfn]

1 hour ago, Jake said:

If you could have Taj or RoLo at the same price (probably not realistic), who are you going with?

I like them both, but probably Taj cause he can play 4 & 5.