Do the White Sox have too much starting pitching?

[reiks12]

No

[Lip Man 1]

You never EVER have to much pitching.

[Bob Sacamano]

15 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

Basically, yes. You're going to have at least 5 guys, at least 3 of which have TOR potential, knocking at the door for one spot, and right now that spot is technically Giolito's. So the reality we could be looking at is 5 pitchers pitching well enough in MLB to keep their spots with 5 guys lighting up AAA or AA and showing themselves ready for the call to the show next year. Obviously negative outcomes (Rodon continuing to be injured, Covey or Lopez imploding, Giolito never regaining form, Stephens not panning out) could impact the MLB rotation, but I feel like Rodon, Covey, and Lopez have much better than a coin flip chance of sticking in the rotation. Stephens and Giolito are likely coin flip or worse, but that makes the probability that at least one will succeed very high, which would leave one rotation spot for potentially 5 guys knocking on the door of a MLB rotation. If that happens, how are the White Sox going to manage the logistics of getting everyone an opportunity without screwing anyone up and getting the five best starters out of the group?

For what it's worth, people have penciled in Palka and Davidson into the future starting lineup at some points this year only for them to come back to earth.

Edited June 15, 2018 by soxfan2014

[southsider2k5]

Just now, soxfan2014 said:

For what it's worth, people have penciled in Palka and Davidson into the future starting lineup at some points this year only for the same to come back to earth.

And this time last year people were ready to send back Dylan Covey to the A's for $25,000.

[Dam8610]

I've acknowledged that there's a chance for each of these pitchers to not work out, but I'm concerned that it will be difficult to work the logistics of this and determine who will be the best starters for this team. What would really suck would be trading away some of this pitching only to watch them flourish as a starter elsewhere, then the White Sox need to buy a starter on the market. In other words, I acknowledge there are many ways the White Sox could screw this up, what's the way they manage to not screw it up?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

17 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

I've acknowledged that there's a chance for each of these pitchers to not work out, but I'm concerned that it will be difficult to work the logistics of this and determine who will be the best starters for this team. What would really suck would be trading away some of this pitching only to watch them flourish as a starter elsewhere, then the White Sox need to buy a starter on the market. In other words, I acknowledge there are many ways the White Sox could screw this up, what's the way they manage to not screw it up?

Every question , every possible pitcher or position player we have or think is a staple for years to come will drastically change in a year and then in another year and also when the Sox sign whoever they manage to sign from the list of FA's. Plus I have been preaching forever to anyone who thinks the whole staff is coming from the prospects and who thinks when said prospects fail or get injured we are doomed,  that the number of changes still to come will be mind boggling. Anyone trying to project much of anything seems to be doing it just because the ML team is bad and the only thing to talk about is the prospects.

 

I will just sit back and relax and try  to pretend that the Sox rebuild will be as successful as the Astros and Cubs.

[Dick Allen]

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

And this time last year people were ready to send back Dylan Covey to the A's for $25,000.

This spring, every major league team passed on Covey when the White Sox sent him through waivers. No one batted an eye. And some crap gets claimed on waivers when they aren't making any money.

Edited June 15, 2018 by Dick Allen

[LittleHurt05]

In 2015 the Mets had too much starting pitching.

[ptatc]

9 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

This spring, every major league team passed on Covey when the White Sox sent him through waivers. No one batted an eye. And some crap gets claimed on waivers when they aren't making any money.

yes. So goes the nature of prospects. Everyone needs to keep this in mind. They are all suspects until they are playing against MLB players. 

[ptatc]

14 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Every question , every possible pitcher or position player we have or think is a staple for years to come will drastically change in a year and then in another year and also when the Sox sign whoever they manage to sign from the list of FA's. Plus I have been preaching forever to anyone who thinks the whole staff is coming from the prospects and who thinks when said prospects fail or get injured we are doomed,  that the number of changes still to come will be mind boggling. Anyone trying to project much of anything seems to be doing it just because the ML team is bad and the only thing to talk about is the prospects.

 

I will just sit back and relax and try  to pretend that the Sox rebuild will be as successful as the Astros and Cubs.

This is why they need to create depth throughout the system. The Sox seem to have done this over the past two years. This is the reason that the future is positive for the team.

[southsider2k5]

25 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

This spring, every major league team passed on Covey when the White Sox sent him through waivers. No one batted an eye. And some crap gets claimed on waivers when they aren't making any money.

See also Beck, Chistopher.

[steveno89]

12 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

I know the most likely answer I'm going to get is "Of course not, there's never enough pitching," but that's a boring answer and doesn't allow for much exploration of the question. To explore the question, the first key step is to identify the pitching that we can have a reasonable expectation that they might be ready to pitch on the MLB team by 2020.

MLB

1) L Carlos Rodon

2) R Dylan Covey

3) R Reynaldo Lopez 

4) R Lucas Giolito

Other than Giolito, this group is very solid at the moment. There's still some SSS questions with Covey and some injury questions with Rodon, but it's not too difficult to see the top 3 guys on this list holding rotation spots in 2020.

 

AAA

1) R Michael Kopech

2) R Jordan Stephens

3) R Spencer Adams

4) R Carson Fulmer

Kopech obviously has immense potential and could be the ace of the staff in 2020, recent bad stretch notwithstanding. Stephens is an older guy, he'll be 26 very soon, but he's done nothing but produce at every level along the way. He's a guy I'd like to see get a crack at the MLB rotation this year to see what they have. Adams is young for level, which has been a theme for him throughout his minor league career. He just recently was promoted to AAA after a good run of starts at AA following a slow start to the season, so he'll likely be here the rest of the year. Fulmer to me is already in the "try to convert to high leverage reliever" category, but he's still starting at the moment, so it seems pertinent to include him here.

 

AA

1) R Alec Hansen

2) R Dane Dunning

3) L Jordan Guerrero

4) L Ian Clarkin

Remember Alec Hansen, that guy who was once in 1-1 consideration in the 2016 draft until control issues allowed the White Sox to pick him in Round 2 and he immediately put those issues to bed and showed the potential that had him in that 1-1 conversation for all of 2016 and 2017? He'll be back starting in Birmingham soon after he lost half of 2018 to injury. Meanwhile Dane Dunning has picked up where Hansen left off, doing nothing but consistently perform well against age appropriate competition as he has since being acquired from Washington. Jordan Guerrero and Ian Clarkin have had poor years, and may be best used as reliever converts.

A+

1) R Dylan Cease

I included Cease here because I feel he will be in AA by the end of the month. He's been great at this level, and his stuff gives him ace level ceiling.

 

Given the above information, I think promoting Stephens, Dunning, and Cease as soon as it is feasible. For Stephens, this season may be his only chance to prove himself worthy holding a rotation spot given his age and the ensuing logjam behind him. Dunning showed us a full season of A ball dominance in 2017 and has followed that up thus far with a half season of AA dominance. He doesn't seem to have much left to prove in AA and isn't very young for the level. Cease has also been dominant at A+ and appears to be ready for the test of AA. But what if Rodon, Covey, Lopez, and Stephens all stick as starters? That leaves 1 rotation spot for the likes of Kopech, Hansen, Dunning, Adams, and Cease, but more than 1 will be needed for this group. Do you trade one of the established starters to replace them with a guy that fits the timeline better? Do you trade some of the prospects for bats? I'm interested in hearing the board's thoughts on this.

We absolutely do not have too much starting pitching.

Out of all of these guys, who has actually proven anything at the mlb level? None of them in my opinion so far. 

Injuries, poor performance, prospects busting, etc. are all a huge factor moving forward. None of our guys would I be comfortable penciling in for the 2020 rotation as of right now until they prove more. Is Covey for real? Remains to be seen. Can Lopez continue to develop? Is Giolito a bust? Can Kopech cut down on the walks? Etc.

Ideally we should be able to come up with most of a starting rotation internally, but I still would like us to sign a quality proven veteran at the right time to lead a young staff. 

 

[ptatc]

2 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

We absolutely do not have too much starting pitching.

Out of all of these guys, who has actually proven anything at the mlb level? None of them in my opinion so far. 

Injuries, poor performance, prospects busting, etc. are all a huge factor moving forward. None of our guys would I be comfortable penciling in for the 2020 rotation as of right now until they prove more. Is Covey for real? Remains to be seen. Can Lopez continue to develop? Is Giolito a bust? Can Kopech cut down on the walks? Etc.

Ideally we should be able to come up with most of a starting rotation internally, but I still would like us to sign a quality proven veteran at the right time to lead a young staff. 

 

I think Rodon has proven himself to be at a minimum, an effective MLB pitcher. Durability may be an issue, this remains to be seen, but he is an effective part of a good rotation.

[steveno89]

Just now, ptatc said:

I think Rodon has proven himself to be at a minimum, an effective MLB pitcher. Durability may be an issue, this remains to be seen, but he is an effective part of a good rotation.

I will agree with that. He has not proven himself from a health standpoint, making him a 2020 question mark for me. 

[Chicago White Sox]

People are focusing on the words “too much pithching” and missing the key point here.  We are going to have a glut of pitchers that will need opportunities in the major league rotation in the next 1 1/2 years and not enough room for them all.  That does NOT mean they will all make it, but it will certaintly take time to know which ones will unless we plan to cut bait relatively quickly.

The way I see it Rodon & Lopez (health permitting) are locks for the opening day 2019 rotation.  Despite recent struggles, I think there is a 90% chance Kopech is in the rotation by mid May.  That leaves two total spots in the near future for all other pitchers.  Right now Covey would be the favorite for one.  The other spot will probably be a battle between Giolito & Stephens.  Sure, one of these guys can go to the pen and serve as backup plan in event of injury.  But things will get complicated when Dunning shows he’s ready in the first half of next year.  Which one of those guys do cut bait to make room for Dane?  And Hansen shouldn’t be too far behind, so things will get even tougher.

So sure this is a good problem to have, but sequencing these guys in will prove to be a bit of a challenge if all goes well.

Edited June 15, 2018 by Chicago White Sox

[joejoedairy]

Having a surplus also could save you in a year where you lose one of your main guys for an extended period. 

I believe the Cardinals won the world series in a season where wainwright missed the whole year. 

[Dam8610]

1 hour ago, LittleHurt05 said:

In 2015 the Mets had too much starting pitching.

No they didn't. They had a few elite starting pitchers, four of them. If all of the White Sox pitchers get injured, they'll also fail. Thanks for pointing out the obvious, I acknowledge that. I'm wondering what happens if the logistics of getting everyone an opportunity to start becomes a problem. Any thoughts on that?

[Dam8610]

34 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

People are focusing on the words “too much pithching” and missing the key point here.  We are going to have a glut of pitchers that will need opportunities in the major league rotation in the next 1 1/2 years and not enough room for them all.  That does NOT mean they will all make it, but it will certaintly take time to know which ones will unless we plan to cut bait relatively quickly.

The way I see it Rodon & Lopez (health permitting) are locks for the opening day 2019 rotation.  Despite recent struggles, I think there is a 90% chance Kopech is in the rotation by mid May.  That leaves two total spots in the near future for all other pitchers.  Right now Covey would be the favorite for one.  The other spot will probably be a battle between Giolito & Stephens.  Sure, one of these guys can go to the pen and serve as backup plan in event of injury.  But things will get complicated when Dunning shows he’s ready in the first half of next year.  Which one of those guys do cut bait to make room for Dane?  And Hansen shouldn’t be too far behind, so things will get even tougher.

So sure this is a good problem to have, but sequencing these guys in will prove to be a bit of a challenge if all goes well.

 This. Thank you.

[Eminor3rd]

42 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

People are focusing on the words “too much pithching” and missing the key point here.  We are going to have a glut of pitchers that will need opportunities in the major league rotation in the next 1 1/2 years and not enough room for them all.  That does NOT mean they will all make it, but it will certaintly take time to know which ones will unless we plan to cut bait relatively quickly.

The way I see it Rodon & Lopez (health permitting) are locks for the opening day 2019 rotation.  Despite recent struggles, I think there is a 90% chance Kopech is in the rotation by mid May.  That leaves two total spots in the near future for all other pitchers.  Right now Covey would be the favorite for one.  The other spot will probably be a battle between Giolito & Stephens.  Sure, one of these guys can go to the pen and serve as backup plan in event of injury.  But things will get complicated when Dunning shows he’s ready in the first half of next year.  Which one of those guys do cut bait to make room for Dane?  And Hansen shouldn’t be too far behind, so things will get even tougher.

So sure this is a good problem to have, but sequencing these guys in will prove to be a bit of a challenge if all goes well.

There will be PLENTY of opportunities. Team's use an average of like 10-12 starters per year as it is, and some of our dudes are gonna fall off. I guarantee this will not be a problem.

[he gone.]

The only team that has too much pitching at this moment is the Astros who have Peacock and McHugh operating out of the bullpen and guys like Martes who have a ton of talent in AAA. They also have Whitley coming up the system too. And look what's going on there -- they are looking for additional bullpen help this year. They also are going to lose Keuchel at year end and will lose others in due time as well. So the answer is no. Even if there is a year like this year for the Astros where all these guys pan out and we have no room we will still have a role for each and every one.

 

In the case where all these guys are throwing well you can use a few guys and package them for a Gerrit Cole. You can utilize a guy like McHugh and Peacock out of the bullpen for 2-3 innings at a time to keep the starters more fresh for the post season, etc.

 

Also Covey, Giolito, Guerrero, Stephens, etc. are not exactly Cole, Verlander, McCullers, Morton, Keuchel, McHugh, Peacock, etc.

[turnin' two]

Part of a good major league team is depth.  To think that you will get through the season with 5 starters is pretty unlikely, sure it happens, but it would be foolish to plan for that.  When this team is competitive, they need to be 7 or so starters deep.  Because guys will get injured.  Some significantly, some for just a few weeks,  either way the team needs to be able to survive.  Aside from that, the team will need at least 3 lights out, dominating relievers.  Even with the stable of prospects the Sox have right now, they don't have enough to comfortably fill out the staff when you think about injuries, flame outs, and under-performances.  Give me more pitching.  Always.  It is always in demand, always needed.  You don't have too much pitching until you have 14 aces on your staff.  

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

There will be PLENTY of opportunities. Team's use an average of like 10-12 starters per year as it is, and some of our dudes are gonna fall off. I guarantee this will not be a problem.

I respectfully disagree.  Those numbers are inflated by a ton of guys getting spot starts or because competitive teams are cycling through options in the back of their rotation.  A random start here or there isn’t what I call an opportunity for a high end pitching prospect.  And for the most part, we are going to to want to stick through our young guys’ struggles as it’s going to take some time to determine which of our guys are going make it and which will fall off.  Injuries may help some, but we’ve done a pretty good job in the past decade of keeping our guys healthy (Rodon withstanding).  I fully expect there to be a bit of a traffic jam when guys like Dunning, Hansen, & Cease start hitting the scene.

[caulfield12]

Danks and Floyd broke down, too.

The only time we theoretically had too many starters was the beginning of 2006 with Contreras, Buehrle, Garcia, Garland, Javy and McCarthy.  That depth lasted 2~3 months.  A lot of those guys seemed to be adversely affected by the extra playoff innings in the second half of that season (along with Jenks).

Edited June 15, 2018 by caulfield12

[pcq]

17 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

I know the most likely answer I'm going to get is "Of course not, there's never enough pitching," but that's a boring answer and doesn't allow for much exploration of the question. To explore the question, the first key step is to identify the pitching that we can have a reasonable expectation that they might be ready to pitch on the MLB team by 2020.

MLB

1) L Carlos Rodon

2) R Dylan Covey

3) R Reynaldo Lopez 

4) R Lucas Giolito

Other than Giolito, this group is very solid at the moment. There's still some SSS questions with Covey and some injury questions with Rodon, but it's not too difficult to see the top 3 guys on this list holding rotation spots in 2020.

 

AAA

1) R Michael Kopech

2) R Jordan Stephens

3) R Spencer Adams

4) R Carson Fulmer

Kopech obviously has immense potential and could be the ace of the staff in 2020, recent bad stretch notwithstanding. Stephens is an older guy, he'll be 26 very soon, but he's done nothing but produce at every level along the way. He's a guy I'd like to see get a crack at the MLB rotation this year to see what they have. Adams is young for level, which has been a theme for him throughout his minor league career. He just recently was promoted to AAA after a good run of starts at AA following a slow start to the season, so he'll likely be here the rest of the year. Fulmer to me is already in the "try to convert to high leverage reliever" category, but he's still starting at the moment, so it seems pertinent to include him here.

 

AA

1) R Alec Hansen

2) R Dane Dunning

3) L Jordan Guerrero

4) L Ian Clarkin

Remember Alec Hansen, that guy who was once in 1-1 consideration in the 2016 draft until control issues allowed the White Sox to pick him in Round 2 and he immediately put those issues to bed and showed the potential that had him in that 1-1 conversation for all of 2016 and 2017? He'll be back starting in Birmingham soon after he lost half of 2018 to injury. Meanwhile Dane Dunning has picked up where Hansen left off, doing nothing but consistently perform well against age appropriate competition as he has since being acquired from Washington. Jordan Guerrero and Ian Clarkin have had poor years, and may be best used as reliever converts.

A+

1) R Dylan Cease

I included Cease here because I feel he will be in AA by the end of the month. He's been great at this level, and his stuff gives him ace level ceiling.

 

Given the above information, I think promoting Stephens, Dunning, and Cease as soon as it is feasible. For Stephens, this season may be his only chance to prove himself worthy holding a rotation spot given his age and the ensuing logjam behind him. Dunning showed us a full season of A ball dominance in 2017 and has followed that up thus far with a half season of AA dominance. He doesn't seem to have much left to prove in AA and isn't very young for the level. Cease has also been dominant at A+ and appears to be ready for the test of AA. But what if Rodon, Covey, Lopez, and Stephens all stick as starters? That leaves 1 rotation spot for the likes of Kopech, Hansen, Dunning, Adams, and Cease, but more than 1 will be needed for this group. Do you trade one of the established starters to replace them with a guy that fits the timeline better? Do you trade some of the prospects for bats? I'm interested in hearing the board's thoughts on this.

Since Giolito has not proved anything they still need good starters to step up. Last year they used 31 pitchers which is about average. 

Edited June 15, 2018 by pcq

[Eminor3rd]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I respectfully disagree.  Those numbers are inflated by a ton of guys getting spot starts or because competitive teams are cycling through options in the back of their rotation.  A random start here or there isn’t what I call an opportunity for a high end pitching prospect.  And for the most part, we are going to to want to stick through our young guys’ struggles as it’s going to take some time to determine which of our guys are going make it and which will fall off.  Injuries may help some, but we’ve done a pretty good job in the past decade of keeping our guys healthy (Rodon withstanding).  I fully expect there to be a bit of a traffic jam when guys like Dunning, Hansen, & Cease start hitting the scene.

Definitely, but the reason those spot starts happen is because guys get shots to force themselves onto the roster and often don't. It's definitely possible that we end up with too many guys at once, but if so, it probably won't last for long (as someone will likely get hurt, allowing different guys to get looks as part of a shuffle), and if that's still the case going into the offseason, then we can make some trades.

It's also possible that we find ourselves with the opportunity to adopt a more progressive approach to the rotation -- sort of like what the Dodgers have done, except with cost-controlled depth instead of a bunch of $12m/yr veterans on short deals. This is, IMO, the best case, because even if everyone is hitting on all cylinders at once for a season, someone is going to get hurt or fall off eventually, and we could easily fall into a more traditional situation at that point.

Extra MLB pitching depth is the new truth, it's just incredibly hard to create due to market forces. If we develop our way into it, I think it'll be an asset, even if there's no way we can visualize exactly what the end product looks like until we see it unfold.