Do the White Sox have too much starting pitching?

[Insp]

18 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

I know the most likely answer I'm going to get is "Of course not, there's never enough pitching," but that's a boring answer and doesn't allow for much exploration of the question. To explore the question, the first key step is to identify the pitching that we can have a reasonable expectation that they might be ready to pitch on the MLB team by 2020.

MLB

1) L Carlos Rodon

2) R Dylan Covey

3) R Reynaldo Lopez 

4) R Lucas Giolito

Other than Giolito, this group is very solid at the moment. There's still some SSS questions with Covey and some injury questions with Rodon, but it's not too difficult to see the top 3 guys on this list holding rotation spots in 2020.

 

AAA

1) R Michael Kopech

2) R Jordan Stephens

3) R Spencer Adams

4) R Carson Fulmer

Kopech obviously has immense potential and could be the ace of the staff in 2020, recent bad stretch notwithstanding. Stephens is an older guy, he'll be 26 very soon, but he's done nothing but produce at every level along the way. He's a guy I'd like to see get a crack at the MLB rotation this year to see what they have. Adams is young for level, which has been a theme for him throughout his minor league career. He just recently was promoted to AAA after a good run of starts at AA following a slow start to the season, so he'll likely be here the rest of the year. Fulmer to me is already in the "try to convert to high leverage reliever" category, but he's still starting at the moment, so it seems pertinent to include him here.

 

AA

1) R Alec Hansen

2) R Dane Dunning

3) L Jordan Guerrero

4) L Ian Clarkin

Remember Alec Hansen, that guy who was once in 1-1 consideration in the 2016 draft until control issues allowed the White Sox to pick him in Round 2 and he immediately put those issues to bed and showed the potential that had him in that 1-1 conversation for all of 2016 and 2017? He'll be back starting in Birmingham soon after he lost half of 2018 to injury. Meanwhile Dane Dunning has picked up where Hansen left off, doing nothing but consistently perform well against age appropriate competition as he has since being acquired from Washington. Jordan Guerrero and Ian Clarkin have had poor years, and may be best used as reliever converts.

A+

1) R Dylan Cease

I included Cease here because I feel he will be in AA by the end of the month. He's been great at this level, and his stuff gives him ace level ceiling.

 

Given the above information, I think promoting Stephens, Dunning, and Cease as soon as it is feasible. For Stephens, this season may be his only chance to prove himself worthy holding a rotation spot given his age and the ensuing logjam behind him. Dunning showed us a full season of A ball dominance in 2017 and has followed that up thus far with a half season of AA dominance. He doesn't seem to have much left to prove in AA and isn't very young for the level. Cease has also been dominant at A+ and appears to be ready for the test of AA. But what if Rodon, Covey, Lopez, and Stephens all stick as starters? That leaves 1 rotation spot for the likes of Kopech, Hansen, Dunning, Adams, and Cease, but more than 1 will be needed for this group. Do you trade one of the established starters to replace them with a guy that fits the timeline better? Do you trade some of the prospects for bats? I'm interested in hearing the board's thoughts on this.

An awful lot of work in writing up what amounts to a stupid question.

[ron883]

10 hours ago, Insp said:

An awful lot of work in writing up what amounts to a stupid question.

LOL

[Dick Allen]

I was watching a sobering discussion about the White Sox rebuild yesterday. They mentioned Giolito stinking up the place, should be in the minors. Fulmer , sent back to the minors. Lopez doing well, but has the highest xFIP of any qualified MLB pitcher, indicating a severe regression. Moncada up and down. Kopech with some issues in AAA. One panelist did mention the amount of prospects the Sox have and how they have accounted for some failure , but then mentioned not every rebuild is going to go like the Cubs and Houston. Some teams are going to be bad for 10 years. 

 

One guy mentioned signing Chris Sale when he becomes a free agent. How it would appeal to him at that time that trading for him started the rebuild and bringing him back would be the cherry on the sundae.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

I was watching a sobering discussion about the White Sox rebuild yesterday. They mentioned Giolito stinking up the place, should be in the minors. Fulmer , sent back to the minors. Lopez doing well, but has the highest xFIP of any qualified MLB pitcher, indicating a severe regression. Moncada up and down. Kopech with some issues in AAA. One panelist did mention the amount of prospects the Sox have and how they have accounted for some failure , but then mentioned not every rebuild is going to go like the Cubs and Houston. Some teams are going to be bad for 10 years. 

 

One guy mentioned signing Chris Sale when he becomes a free agent. How it would appeal to him at that time that trading for him started the rebuild and bringing him back would be the cherry on the sundae.

We all have to be patient.  Right now things may look a bit grim, but that’s what happens when young talent is developing at the major league level.  In all honesty, the only guy I’m really worried about at the moment is Giolito.  Without his velocity to returning to some extent, the command issues don’t even really matter.  I’m not giving up on him just yet because I believe the cause has to be mechanical, but he’s quickly moving to the bust group.  Moncada & Lopez have both flashed significant potential and even if they don’t reach their ceilings, I’m confident they’ll both become good players.  I have zero concerns about Kopech and Fulmer was already a bust before this season so no worries there.

[Lip Man 1]

I see where Fulmer again walked six more guys last night.

[ptatc]

44 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

I see where Fulmer again walked six more guys last night.

Yes but the problem is he only gave up 2 runs and they won the game. He can pitch in AAA and be successful walking 6 guys. He cant go into a game with the primary goal of not walking hitters. Thats like playing not to lose and it takes away any aggressiveness. That will really limit any success he has at the MLB.

[Two-Gun Pete]

5 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

I was watching a sobering discussion about the White Sox rebuild yesterday. They mentioned Giolito stinking up the place, should be in the minors. Fulmer , sent back to the minors. Lopez doing well, but has the highest xFIP of any qualified MLB pitcher, indicating a severe regression. Moncada up and down. Kopech with some issues in AAA. One panelist did mention the amount of prospects the Sox have and how they have accounted for some failure , but then mentioned not every rebuild is going to go like the Cubs and Houston. Some teams are going to be bad for 10 years. 

Well, let's apply Occam's Razor to all of this:

All of these prospects' development was supposed to be finished by this Org, but this Org has been utterly incompetent and stupid in developing prospects. Hence:

 

1. This org has had the "good enough" approach to rushing prospects up, BEFORE they fully finish their development. Moncada not having learned to hit as a RHB, Fulmer's utter inability to locate his FB, and Rodon's incomplete control over his FB are all reflective of rushing prospects. 

2. The cavalcade of walks from Fulmer, and Lopez, and Rodon, and Giolito, and Kopech makes me question exactly what are they teaching the SP prospects, and exactly how does Cooper supposedly "fix pitchers." [Has he "fixed" Fulmer, despite YEARS of exposure to him? Has he "fixed" Giolito?]

 

On balance, this is why I had wanted everyone in the FO fired seconds after the stupid trade for Shields. They screwed up this org, and now we're supposed to trust them to rebuild it?  I simply hope that this this Org can learn something, instead of constantly doing the same stupid things over and over again.

[soxfan49]

5 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

I was watching a sobering discussion about the White Sox rebuild yesterday. They mentioned Giolito stinking up the place, should be in the minors. Fulmer , sent back to the minors. Lopez doing well, but has the highest xFIP of any qualified MLB pitcher, indicating a severe regression. Moncada up and down. Kopech with some issues in AAA. One panelist did mention the amount of prospects the Sox have and how they have accounted for some failure , but then mentioned not every rebuild is going to go like the Cubs and Houston. Some teams are going to be bad for 10 years. 

 

One guy mentioned signing Chris Sale when he becomes a free agent. How it would appeal to him at that time that trading for him started the rebuild and bringing him back would be the cherry on the sundae.

Do yourself a favor and stop watching Kaplan's show. The guy is a goof, and his panelists are a joke. Bernfield and Goc have as much knowledge as the keyboard I'm typing on.

The best part was them discussing Moncada's strikeouts...as if the almighty Kris Bryant wasn't a strikeout machine early on. GMAB

[Two-Gun Pete]

11 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

Do yourself a favor and stop watching Kaplan's show. The guy is a goof, and his panelists are a joke. Bernfield and Goc have as much knowledge as the keyboard I'm typing on.

The best part was them discussing Moncada's strikeouts...as if the almighty Kris Bryant wasn't a strikeout machine early on. GMAB

While I agree with you in general about Kaplan, the point about Moncada's Ks, and him moronically being rushed up holds true. Look at Moncada's splits, AWAY from the Charlotte bandbox last season. [OPS: .941 in Charlotte, .696 AWAY].

He OPS'ed .741 vs LHP/as a RHB in Charlotte, while he OPS'ed .856 as a LHB.

Moncada 2017 MiLB Splits

 

Is anyone REALLY surprised that Moncada is now worthless as a RHB? 28 WRC+ as a RHB this year. His K rate as a RHB is a vomit-inducing 40%. 

Moncada 2018 Splits

 

I'm NOT saying that "he's a bust," or "I hate Moncada," or any other lazy takes on this. What I AM saying is that it was stupid, idiotic, moronic, and dumb to rush him up last season, and now we're seeing the results of that dumb decision. BTW, he's burning an option year and his controllable time while he's hitting worse than many fat slobs on these boards as a RHB. Here's hoping that this stupid decision doesn't scupper this rebuild.

Edited June 16, 2018 by Two-Gun Pete

[Dam8610]

I think maybe changing the title of the thread to something like "How will the White Sox get all their ML ready and  near ML ready starting pitchers an opportunity in the next two years?" Might actually help facilitate the conversation I'm trying to have, but I'm pretty sure only a mod can do that. Also, that's basically the question I'm asking. Yes, I know injuries, failed development, etc. could and possibly will cull a lot of the depth I mentioned, but I see a fairly decent chance that before 2020 rolls around, the White Sox have 5 quality ML starters that are relatively healthy and at least 2-3 starters in AAA pounding down the door. That seems like a problem if it happens, even if it's a good problem to have. What would be the best way to resolve it while keeping the 5 best starters here?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

38 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Well, let's apply Occam's Razor to all of this:

All of these prospects' development was supposed to be finished by this Org, but this Org has been utterly incompetent and stupid in developing prospects. Hence:

 

1. This org has had the "good enough" approach to rushing prospects up, BEFORE they fully finish their development. Moncada not having learned to hit as a RHB, Fulmer's utter inability to locate his FB, and Rodon's incomplete control over his FB are all reflective of rushing prospects. 

2. The cavalcade of walks from Fulmer, and Lopez, and Rodon, and Giolito, and Kopech makes me question exactly what are they teaching the SP prospects, and exactly how does Cooper supposedly "fix pitchers." [Has he "fixed" Fulmer, despite YEARS of exposure to him? Has he "fixed" Giolito?]

 

On balance, this is why I had wanted everyone in the FO fired seconds after the stupid trade for Shields. They screwed up this org, and now we're supposed to trust them to rebuild it?  I simply hope that this this Org can learn something, instead of constantly doing the same stupid things over and over again.

While I agree that the biggest obstacle to a successful rebuild could be upper management I disagree wholeheartedly on rushing prospects is a main reason for failure.

I think when there is failure people want reasons and the easiest one to pick is that they were rushed. You speak as if Rodon's , Fulmer's and Moncada's problems are  the product of being rushed. How can you be so sure that is the reason ? There could be multiple reasons when you talk about how human beings perform at the highest level of competition in their profession. The main one being they just can't cut it talent wise and every effort to get them to max their talent just didn't work . People just develop differently and applying one reason to those who you deem as being rushed  is rather asinine. Plenty of young men are bought up very young with great track record in the minors . Some succeed some fail. Some with not so great track records in the minors also come up. Some succeed some fail. Some take years to have the light switch go on. They all process information differently or take time to find the right combination of adjustments or advice to max their talent. Some never find the right combination. Being rushed is just a lame way of trying apply a logical answer in your head to explain why things didnt work when in reality no one can understand why things didn't work. The human mind and body in relationship to peak performance is much too complicated for anyone to understand why anyone fails or succeeds.

[fathom]

Biggest challenge for the rebuild has always been the org's inability to develop raw talent into MLB caliber hitters. Until they prove they can do that, there is pretty big concern.

[zisk]

23 hours ago, steveno89 said:

We absolutely do not have too much starting pitching.

Out of all of these guys, who has actually proven anything at the mlb level? None of them in my opinion so far. 

Injuries, poor performance, prospects busting, etc. are all a huge factor moving forward. None of our guys would I be comfortable penciling in for the 2020 rotation as of right now until they prove more. Is Covey for real? Remains to be seen. Can Lopez continue to develop? Is Giolito a bust? Can Kopech cut down on the walks? Etc.

Ideally we should be able to come up with most of a starting rotation internally, but I still would like us to sign a quality proven veteran at the right time to lead a young staff. 

 

  Bernardo Flores : Please promote to AA

[Two-Gun Pete]

17 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

While I agree that the biggest obstacle to a successful rebuild could be upper management I disagree wholeheartedly on rushing prospects is a main reason for failure.

I think when there is failure people want reasons and the easiest one to pick is that they were rushed. You speak as if Rodon's , Fulmer's and Moncada's problems are  the product of being rushed. How can you be so sure that is the reason ? 

I think we agree that this is a subjective thing to quantify [rushing vs. not rushing prospects]. I also think we agree that the prospects in question are indeed talented, based on their mode/cost of acquisition, and the viewpoint on these players within the industry prior to their arrival here.

 

So take the opposite viewpoint of mine, and ask yourself if it is the simplest explanation for these talented prospects to fail. Consider the following:

Was Moncada's performance in AAA [when broken down into it's components of splits, Home/away, and the Volume of PA] sufficient for him to EARN a promotion, yes or no? 

Was Carson Fulmer's 16 IP in AAA in 2016 enough of an "internship" for him to be ready to perform in MLB? AND, did he perform well enough to warrant promotion, yes or no?

Was Carlos Rodon's 22 IP in AAA between 2014 and 2015 enough of an "internship" for him to be ready to perform in MLB?

 

I'm not asking for the reasons why they were brought up, just a straight-up question of whether or not they learned enough, and performed well enough in their "internships" to be ready or not. I happen to look at the cavalcade of failure to develop prospects for YEARS by this FO as prologue to what has happened to youngsters in this org today. YMMV.

Edited June 16, 2018 by Two-Gun Pete

[Richie]

Not all will pan out and you need 5 to complete a rotation. A couple who don't workout as starters may become decent bullpen assets. 

Then, if you really do have that 6th, 7th or even 8th young pitcher who belongs in a Major League rotation. Man, that's a great position to find yourself in. Currency. 

[Dam8610]

49 minutes ago, Richie said:

Not all will pan out and you need 5 to complete a rotation. A couple who don't workout as starters may become decent bullpen assets. 

Then, if you really do have that 6th, 7th or even 8th young pitcher who belongs in a Major League rotation. Man, that's a great position to find yourself in. Currency. 

So let's say your latter paragraph happens. You have "currency". How do you ensure that doesn't turn into a starter that beats you in the playoffs or that you regret trading because he develops into a better pitcher than all of the ones you keep?

[Eminor3rd]

8 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

So let's say your latter paragraph happens. You have "currency". How do you ensure that doesn't turn into a starter that beats you in the playoffs or that you regret trading because he develops into a better pitcher than all of the ones you keep?

Come on man

[turnin' two]

You were a big proponent of drafting Madrigal right?  Even though they already have Anderson and Moncada.  Couldn't they hypothetically have the same problem in the middle infield?  Not enough ABs to go around.  And what about the OF?  What if Eloy, Robert, Rutherford, Adolfo, Basabe, Call, Booker, Gonzalez, Walker, Dedelow etc all develop well?  It would suck to trade Call, only to have him become good somewhere else. It doesn't matter because you stockpile talent.  When you are rebuilding, you stockpile talent in the minors.  You can never have enough.  

I think the Sox would be pretty lucky to get 1 good MLB pitcher out of:

 Lopez, Covey, Giolito

and 1 from

Kopech, Fulmer, Stephens, Adams

and 1 from

Dunning, Hansen, Cease.

 

Why on Earth would you worry about having too much pitching talent in the organization?

[Richie]

22 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

So let's say your latter paragraph happens. You have "currency". How do you ensure that doesn't turn into a starter that beats you in the playoffs or that you regret trading because he develops into a better pitcher than all of the ones you keep?

 How do you ensure that with a free agent you don't sign, a trade you don't make or a player you don't draft? 

 What if we decided to skip over drafting/trading for one of these pitchers we have down on the farm now. Instead we grabbed a positional player to begin with - then the pitcher skipped out on beats us in a playoff series. Do you feel better that way? 

 What if you lose that playoff series to said pitcher, but you narrowly made it there to begin with? A huge reason being the positional player you received in compensation for that pitcher? 

 If you want to play this game - it's a never ending circle.

 Bottom line, it's never a bad thing to have an influx of talent in any given area and you make moves to better your team. The whole point is that the other team is trying to better themselves as well. So, if you two meet in the playoffs - large in part to the players you've dealt to each other. What a smashing success of a trade that was for everyone. 

 

 

[BlackSox13]

Hate you be the asshole that resurrects this thread but Dane Dunning answered the OP's question tonight. Sad news but it goes to show why depth of talent is so important. This isn't nearly as big of a blow as it would be had the Sox not built up the depth of pitching they have.

[ron883]

This may go down as the worst thread in soxtalk history

[BlackSox13]

3 minutes ago, Hot FiRe said:

This may go down as the worst thread in soxtalk history

Nah not even close. I've seen much worse in the short time I've been here.

[ron883]

Just now, BlackSox13 said:

Nah not even close. I've seen much worse in the short time I've been here.

Trust me. Since this thread was made Covey went down and dunning blew out his elbow. OP is bad luck. 

[SoxAce]

8 minutes ago, Hot FiRe said:

This may go down as the worst thread in soxtalk history

Coming from you, this is rich.

[Flash Tizzle]

5 minutes ago, BlackSox13 said:

Hate you be the asshole that resurrects this thread but Dane Dunning answered the OP's question tonight. Sad news but it goes to show why depth of talent is so important. This isn't nearly as big of a blow as it would be had the Sox not built up the depth of pitching they have.

It's not a blow.....as long as no other starting pitcher experiences any significant setback.