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Badler J2 Preview - Sox Tied to 2 Cubans


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13 minutes ago, SoxAce said:

Espinoza would be a terrific get. Would help ease the loss for some from Tatis Jr. IMO. Not sure if we can pull that off however.

Honestly if it's in the badler preview it's pretty much a done deal.

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1 hour ago, bmags said:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/al-central-2018-international-signing-forecasts/

Names

Still tied to Miguel Tejada Jr (SS likely Corner)

Still tied to Anthony Espinoza (true SS)

Bryan Ramos (Cuba) (3b)

Alberta Lemay Brenal (Cuba) Catcher

 

Nice.  Glad to see the team getting back to work in LA.

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2 minutes ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

I know we are excited about these guys because they fit within our $300K cap, but assuming we didn't have any restrictions, would these guys just be footnotes? They can't be that hyped if they are signing for sub $300K, right?

Unlikely any will be in top 30. But last year we were so in-between with Robert they ended up having a very small class that was mostly filled out in February. This should be a much bigger one.

And we're obviously seeing a ton of examples of some pretty cheap signings having big impacts so you want to put your line in the water a lot.

I wanted to just sign 40-50 300k guys but obviously we aren't going to do that and a bunch of teams could just offer $305k.

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3 minutes ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

I know we are excited about these guys because they fit within our $300K cap, but assuming we didn't have any restrictions, would these guys just be footnotes? They can't be that hyped if they are signing for sub $300K, right?

Ronald Acuna signed for $100K. You never know with LA guys. I will gamble on blood lines and guys with up the middle potential all day in int'l free agency.

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Just now, Dunt said:

Ronald Acuna signed for $100K. You never know with LA guys. I will gamble on blood lines and guys with up the middle potential all day in int'l free agency.

Oh I know, I just mean none of these guys are considered top signing, so I'm just trying to put our excitement in perspective. Hopefully a year from now when the chains come off, we can snag a top 10 guy or two.

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47 minutes ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

I know we are excited about these guys because they fit within our $300K cap, but assuming we didn't have any restrictions, would these guys just be footnotes? They can't be that hyped if they are signing for sub $300K, right?

With the change in cap rules allowing no one to go over the caps at all anymore, it is hard to say exactly how the market place is adjusting to that.  I think you got some big inflation from the old system because once you went over the incentive became to spend as much as possible because you knew you were out for 2 years.  Now, you have to make everyone fit regardless.  So if the top guys are still getting $3 to $4 million and taking up almost all of a teams allotment for the season, the guys in the middle are probably the ones getting squeezed.  The pressure to keep costs down has to trickle down somewhere, and I would guess that is where it happens.

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7 hours ago, bmags said:

Unlikely any will be in top 30. But last year we were so in-between with Robert they ended up having a very small class that was mostly filled out in February. This should be a much bigger one.

And we're obviously seeing a ton of examples of some pretty cheap signings having big impacts so you want to put your line in the water a lot.

I wanted to just sign 40-50 300k guys but obviously we aren't going to do that and a bunch of teams could just offer $305k.

I would think signing 20-30 guys to $100-$300K deals would be a viable strategy, and you might actually end up with some names since no one can go completely crazy with the bonuses anymore. Given the highest bonus pool is a little over $6 million, I can't see more than a few players getting a bonus of more than $1 million, because anything higher would seriously eat up your pool.

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Clearly Tejada Jr is good clickbait for headlines, unfortunately does not look like he's a top 50 prospect in this LatAm class according to Badler.

 

Sox did not see a top 50 prospect, which may not be surprising due to the spending cap.

For reference, it appeared the lowest amount i saw a top 50 player expected to sign for was 500k, so that is good info was we theorized how many the spending limits may push individual talents prices down.

It looks like the bigger question will be whether there was any change in the 50-150 range now, which I don't know if we'll see analysis like that because I don't know if anyone ranks 150 16 year olds.

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On 6/18/2018 at 1:27 PM, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

I know we are excited about these guys because they fit within our $300K cap, but assuming we didn't have any restrictions, would these guys just be footnotes? They can't be that hyped if they are signing for sub $300K, right?

Keep in mind that Ronald Acuna Jr was signed for $100K. I’m not saying that these guys are destined to be at his level but a lot of the time it’s the low level guys who breakout and become stars. 

Their prices are also determined by how many teams see them, the profile of the trainer, and so soon an agreement was made. 

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1 hour ago, Joshua Strong said:

Keep in mind that Ronald Acuna Jr was signed for $100K. I’m not saying that these guys are destined to be at his level but a lot of the time it’s the low level guys who breakout and become stars. 

Their prices are also determined by how many teams see them, the profile of the trainer, and so soon an agreement was made. 

They are so young when they sign.  At 16 they are the age of Sophomores in high school.  Especially with pitchers, you just don't know.  Guys can grow six inches, add 8 mph to their fastballs, etc.  I mean think of how much kids change from their sophomore to their senior year of high schools in sports, then add to that this these guys aren't playing real baseball in places like the DR.  They are just training to impress scouts.

Realistically, you could do worse than targeting guys for their bloodlines down there.

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On 6/18/2018 at 1:32 PM, Dunt said:

Ronald Acuna signed for $100K. You never know with LA guys. I will gamble on blood lines and guys with up the middle potential all day in int'l free agency.

Jose Altuve signed for $15K. Trust the scouts, hope they're right and you get lucky.

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7 hours ago, Joshua Strong said:

Keep in mind that Ronald Acuna Jr was signed for $100K. I’m not saying that these guys are destined to be at his level but a lot of the time it’s the low level guys who breakout and become stars. 

Their prices are also determined by how many teams see them, the profile of the trainer, and so soon an agreement was made. 

I'm not asking if Tejada Jr will ever be good, I was just more-or-less asking if it's safe to assume he's not very highly touted, if a team like us with restrictions is able to sign him. Obviously most of these guys are complete lottery tickets, and there are many cases of random low signings turning out good, but if he's signing for $300K, he's probably not near the top of his class right now. Just tempering my enthusiasm. 

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Just now, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

I'm not asking if Tejada Jr will ever be good, I was just more-or-less asking if it's safe to assume he's not very highly touted, if a team like us with restrictions is able to sign him. Obviously most of these guys are complete lottery tickets, and there are many cases of random low signings turning out good, but if he's signing for $300K, he's probably not near the top of his class right now. Just tempering my enthusiasm. 

Not sure if you saw my post but he's not in Badler's top 50 so no, if he's not up there we aren't getting a top 50 guy, and i doubt there is much difference in a #51 guy vs a #150 guy beyond that.

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