Astros interested in Abreu?

[Chicago White Sox]

2 minutes ago, ptatc said:

The big downfall of WAR, just as it is with most of the similar stats is that it's based on a homemade algorithm of what one person or a group of people think is important. It's fun to compare but it is really subjective time in its measurements.

It’s a great framework, but there are imperfections wit it and people too often use as scripture whether a good directional indicator of total value.

[Kyyle23]

Ok lol, The way you worded it it seems like you forgot that the Astros moved to the American League

[Eminor3rd]

4 minutes ago, ptatc said:

The big downfall of WAR, just as it is with most of the similar stats is that it's based on a homemade algorithm of what one person or a group of people think is important. It's fun to compare but it is really subjective time in its measurements.

Which part do you think is subjective?

[chitownsportsfan]

34 minutes ago, ptatc said:

The big downfall of WAR, just as it is with most of the similar stats is that it's based on a homemade algorithm of what one person or a group of people think is important. It's fun to compare but it is really subjective time in its measurements.

I'm sorry but this is a fundamental misunderstanding of how WAR is generated from linear weights.  It was a shock to my system reading Tango's original public work, but his insight is as true now as it was then -- scoring and preventing runs in baseball is a math problem.  You've got discrete events that occur in a non infinite set.  You can assign values to events with amazing precision given the inherent setup of the game.

Dividing by outs makes it all possible.  No clock.

[wrathofhahn]

The biggest problem I have with WAR is how it's used. Particularly fangraphs war which uses predictive modeling rather then being reflective of what actually happened.

For example example Brandon Morrow he regularly put up seasons of mid 4 era but because his FIP was in the mid 3's his WAR was 3+. That may be predictive but when a fan says Morrow was worth more to the Jays then Vogelsong in 2011 they are wrong.

Outcomes matter. I've always found it strange that fangraphs WAR focuses on the peripheral of pitchers but for hitters they ignore BABIP and other factors like defense.

 

[striker]

I would estimate Abreu's value to be close to what the Pirates got for Cole. There were no sexy names but the Pirates did well. Say Abreu and Cedeno for Martes, Davis and Stubbs.

[SCCWS]

9 hours ago, striker said:

I would estimate Abreu's value to be close to what the Pirates got for Cole. There were no sexy names but the Pirates did well. Say Abreu and Cedeno for Martes, Davis and Stubbs.

When you are talking trade-deadline, the timing has a good amount to do with the value. There are less bidders at this time but some are getting desperate. Withe the way the AL is going this year, there will be a limited number of teams involved.  I think to win for a team looking to unload, it will help to have a need the Yankees or Red Sox have.  There will be more NL options , but then you get into more of Abreu's defense which may reduce his value w NL teams. 

[GreenSox]

9 hours ago, striker said:

I would estimate Abreu's value to be close to what the Pirates got for Cole. There were no sexy names but the Pirates did well. Say Abreu and Cedeno for Martes, Davis and Stubbs.

Good comp.

[Eminor3rd]

13 hours ago, wrathofhahn said:

The biggest problem I have with WAR is how it's used. Particularly fangraphs war which uses predictive modeling rather then being reflective of what actually happened.

For example example Brandon Morrow he regularly put up seasons of mid 4 era but because his FIP was in the mid 3's his WAR was 3+. That may be predictive but when a fan says Morrow was worth more to the Jays then Vogelsong in 2011 they are wrong.

Outcomes matter. I've always found it strange that fangraphs WAR focuses on the peripheral of pitchers but for hitters they ignore BABIP and other factors like defense.

 

This is a common misunderstanding of the framework, but it's false. 

While FIP is useful because it tends to be more predictive of its own future than ERA, FIP is NOT a predictive model. It is a descriptive statistic whose purpose is to strip the effects of defense and batted ball luck from measures of run prevention.

To go deeper:

The "flaw" that exists in FIP is that it is not a complete descriptor of what has happened that has resulted in a run. Essentially, it assumes the pitcher has nothing to do with the quality or nature of contact as long as it isn't a homerun. Literally no one, not even the creators of the statistic, think that it is correct to assume that the pitcher has no effect on the quality or nature of non-homerun contact -- the statistic assumes it because no one has found a way to factor it in and produce useful, stable results.

The "flaw" in ERA is that while it's a complete description, it's a purposely inaccurate one. Essentially, it assumes the pitcher takes ALL the credit or blame for what happens to balls in play, except in the case of an official error. Quality of defense, batted ball luck, weather, etc. are all charged to the pitcher. Literally no one, not even the creators of the statistic, that that is correct to assume the pitcher should be credited with everything that happens on the field -- the statistic assumes it because to do otherwise would leave you with an incomplete description of the events.

Both approaches are flawed, but in different, mutually exclusive ways. The reason sabermetricians prefer FIP is because it turns out that it's more predictive, and thus a more useful indicator of a pitcher's ability. 

But both are descriptive statistics, not predictive models.

Edited June 22, 2018 by Eminor3rd

[Sticky Stuff]

10 hours ago, striker said:

I would estimate Abreu's value to be close to what the Pirates got for Cole. There were no sexy names but the Pirates did well. Say Abreu and Cedeno for Martes, Davis and Stubbs.

Funny that Martes isn’t in the Astros top 30 anymore. He was the guy the Sox wanted in a Sale or Quintana deal right?

[ptatc]

6 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

This is a common misunderstanding of the framework, but it's false. 

While FIP is useful because it tends to be more predictive of its own future than ERA, FIP is NOT a predictive model. It is a descriptive statistic whose purpose is to strip the effects of defense and batted ball luck from measures of run prevention.

To go deeper:

The "flaw" that exists in FIP is that it is not a complete descriptor of what has happened that has resulted in a run. Essentially, it assumes the pitcher has nothing to do with the quality or nature of contact as long as it isn't a homerun. Literally no one, not even the creators of the statistic, think that it is correct to assume that the pitcher has no effect on the quality or nature of non-homerun contact -- the statistic assumes it because no one has found a way to factor it in and produce useful, stable results.

The "flaw" in ERA is that while it's a complete description, it's a purposely inaccurate one. Essentially, it assumes the pitcher takes ALL the credit or blame for what happens to balls in play, except in the case of an official error. Quality of defense, batted ball luck, weather, etc. are all charged to the pitcher. Literally no one, not even the creators of the statistic, that that is correct to assume the pitcher should be credited with everything that happens on the field -- the statistic assumes it because to do otherwise would leave you with an incomplete description of the events.

Both approaches are flawed, but in different, mutually exclusive ways. The reason sabermetricians prefer FIP is because it turns out that it's more predictive, and thus a more useful indicator of a pitcher's ability. 

But both are descriptive statistics, not predictive models.

I still think SIERA is better than FIP but it really hasn't gotten much attention for some reason.

Edited June 22, 2018 by ptatc

[Sockin]

1 hour ago, DH in the NL said:

Funny that Martes isn’t in the Astros top 30 anymore. He was the guy the Sox wanted in a Sale or Quintana deal right?

Martes isnt a rookie anymore so he's been removed from the top 30.

[Sticky Stuff]

9 minutes ago, Sockin said:

Martes isnt a rookie anymore so he's been removed from the top 30.

I didn’t realize he pitched 54 innings innings last year. He’s only pitched 18 innings in AAA this year, and has been on the DL since May 4. 

[ChiSox59]

Martes was shitty out of the pen last season, and was shitty in AAA this season before hitting the DL on not returning.  I'd take him in a deal, but I'd want him to be a secondary piece.  

At some point soon, the Sox are going to have a real 40 man crunch.  I'd prefer getting multiple young upside prospects in the low minors if we're not getting a true blue chipper for Abreu.    

Edited June 22, 2018 by ChiSox59

[steveno89]

6 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

Martes was shitty out of the pen last season, and was shitty in AAA this season before hitting the DL on not returning.  I'd take him in a deal, but I'd want him to be a secondary piece.  

At some point soon, the Sox are going to have a real 40 man crunch.  I'd prefer getting multiple young upside prospects in the low minors if we're not getting a true blue chipper for Abreu.    

Martes has really fallen off in 2017 and 2018, to the point where he cannot be considered a center piece of any potential trade. He's still young and can bounce back, but the results have been rough so far. 

[footlongcomiskeydog]

1 hour ago, steveno89 said:

Martes has really fallen off in 2017 and 2018, to the point where he cannot be considered a center piece of any potential trade. He's still young and can bounce back, but the results have been rough so far. 

This sounds a lot like Moncada as well unfortunately.

[wrathofhahn]

12 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

This is a common misunderstanding of the framework, but it's false. 

While FIP is useful because it tends to be more predictive of its own future than ERA, FIP is NOT a predictive model. It is a descriptive statistic whose purpose is to strip the effects of defense and batted ball luck from measures of run prevention.

To go deeper:

The "flaw" that exists in FIP is that it is not a complete descriptor of what has happened that has resulted in a run. Essentially, it assumes the pitcher has nothing to do with the quality or nature of contact as long as it isn't a homerun. Literally no one, not even the creators of the statistic, think that it is correct to assume that the pitcher has no effect on the quality or nature of non-homerun contact -- the statistic assumes it because no one has found a way to factor it in and produce useful, stable results.

The "flaw" in ERA is that while it's a complete description, it's a purposely inaccurate one. Essentially, it assumes the pitcher takes ALL the credit or blame for what happens to balls in play, except in the case of an official error. Quality of defense, batted ball luck, weather, etc. are all charged to the pitcher. Literally no one, not even the creators of the statistic, that that is correct to assume the pitcher should be credited with everything that happens on the field -- the statistic assumes it because to do otherwise would leave you with an incomplete description of the events.

Both approaches are flawed, but in different, mutually exclusive ways. The reason sabermetricians prefer FIP is because it turns out that it's more predictive, and thus a more useful indicator of a pitcher's ability. 

But both are descriptive statistics, not predictive models.

It isn't descriptive the reason for that is quite simple when you leave the realm of what happened to what should have happened you move from reflective to predictive.

And like I said I still don't understand how fangraphs justifies treating pitchers one way and hitters another. Is BABIP for hitter not dependent on luck as well. If a pitcher throws a pitch it gets put in play for a hit but his defense isn't good so it gets taken away why does the hitter get to keep that same hit?

I've always had this problem with WAR. I think FIP exists on it's own as does xFIP. There are already stats out there to determine how much luck influenced the pitchers performance but at the end of the day WAR is supposed to measure a players contribution to a club it shouldn't matter how that happened whether it partially attributed to luck, ballpark, or defense. As soon as you start introducing imaginary numbers based on what you think should have happened it stops becoming useful stat in measuring how much specific worth the player had to a club that season.

Edited June 23, 2018 by wrathofhahn

[oldsox]

Speaking of Abreu, he went 0 for 8 tonight, down to .273.

[greg775]

24 minutes ago, oldsox said:

Speaking of Abreu, he went 0 for 8 tonight, down to .273.

He looked pretty frustrated after the eighth out. Poor guy. S--t happens. 

[Sticky Stuff]

41 minutes ago, oldsox said:

Speaking of Abreu, he went 0 for 8 tonight, down to .273.

That will happen when 1 guy has to make up for all the dead weight on this team. I really hope he gets traded to a team like Houston. He deserves a shot to play in the playoffs. Screw this mentoring shit. 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, DH in the NL said:

That will happen when 1 guy has to make up for all the dead weight on this team. I really hope he gets traded to a team like Houston. He deserves a shot to play in the playoffs. Screw this mentoring shit. 

Ernie Banks?

[Dominikk85]

I think you can get a 50 fv guy (whether he is ranked 57 or 110 on the top100 doesn't make that much of a difference but you won't get a 55+ (and certainly no 60+) for abreu. Not all 50s are totally equal of course but the difference between the 10th and 30th prospect is much bigger than the difference between 50 and 90.

A 50 and a strong 40 would be a good return for him.

[greg775]

4 hours ago, [email protected] said:

I think you can get a 50 fv guy (whether he is ranked 57 or 110 on the top100 doesn't make that much of a difference but you won't get a 55+ (and certainly no 60+) for abreu. Not all 50s are totally equal of course but the difference between the 10th and 30th prospect is much bigger than the difference between 50 and 90.

A 50 and a strong 40 would be a good return for him.

If that's all you can get, Hahn should be fired for trading him. On the spot. It's not like the Sox are spending any money this season. If that's all there is for an all star why trade him? Dumb.

[mac9001]

3 minutes ago, greg775 said:

If that's all you can get, Hahn should be fired for trading him. On the spot. It's not like the Sox are spending any money this season. If that's all there is for an all star why trade him? Dumb.

Getting a offensive focused 1B/DH type on the open market is fairly trivial (and relatively affordable). The Sox are going to be really bad this year and likely only marginally better next year. There's plenty of arguments to be made to trade any piece that's not controlled through 2020 at a minimum  If you see Abreu as potential add for the 2020 season we can just go sign him on the open market. Personally I'd much rather spend $10M on a value bat in 2020 then extended/commit long term money to Abreu.  

[greg775]

9 minutes ago, mac9001 said:

Getting a offensive focused 1B/DH type on the open market is fairly trivial (and relatively affordable). The Sox are going to be really bad this year and likely only marginally better next year. There's plenty of arguments to be made to trade any piece that's not controlled through 2020 at a minimum  If you see Abreu as potential add for the 2020 season we can just go sign him on the open market. Personally I'd much rather spend $10M on a value bat in 2020 then extended/commit long term money to Abreu.  

I know the Sox brought back MiGo but how often do you re-sign a guy like that? Sounds good  in theory but ... I'm just saying if you can't get anything except two prospects who probably won't make it, it's insane to trade Abreu. I mean this trade stuff at some point jumps the shark. I do think Hahn will trade him though. If you trade him, the team that gets him is going to get a superstar who can help them win it all THIS YEAR and next. So YES I'm demanding Hahn get at least ONE sure-fire star for him. Preferably 2 sure fire stars and one top 50 guy. That's how it works. Teams overpay for studs who can help them win it all NOW. Why our fans are demanding less from Hahn SLAYS me. Geez some of you are so kind to the front office of the White Sox. How bout if we trade fan favorite/great chemistry guy Abreu we slay some team and acquire studs not duds??????? If Hahn gets organizational fodder for him and not excellence I just wish we'd fire Hahn.

Edited June 23, 2018 by greg775