Astros interested in Abreu?

[Balta1701]

51 minutes ago, greg775 said:

I said one of the best 4 year runs. Frank obviously would be in there. Who else? Maybe Robin. Baines.

And then you said maybe the best, which tells me that you never watched Frank Thomas, because no one who watched Frank Thomas would ever say that even with a maybe.

[BlackSox13]

2 hours ago, steveno89 said:

Bowden at the Athletic proposes Jose Abreu to the Cardinals in exchange for Jose Martinez and Ryan Helsley. An interesting trade offer.

 

Thoughts? 

I'll have some of what Bowen is having X2!

Yeah, not in the least bit interested unless the return package starts with O'Neill or at least Hudson. 

[Balta1701]

6 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Below are Jose’s stats for April/May of 2018, FY 2017, & his career averages:

BB %: 6.6% / 5.2% / 6.4%

K %: 18.0% / 17.6% / 19.3%

BABIP: .331 / .330 / .332

ISO: .224 / .248 / .221

OPS: .882 / .906 / .873

wRC+: 140 / 138 / 136

Which stats suggest an unsustainable  hot streak or a sudden aging?  His BABIP good luck in May simply offset his bad luck in April.  Again, I really think you’re reaching here.  Jose looked really damn good those first couple months.

 

So, interestingly, I did find one thing in Abreu's stats that has clearly trended down year after year and is consistent with him actually showing an age-related decline. Here's his runs above average against 4 seam fastballs year after year:

2014: 21.6
2015: 18.4
2016: 12.4
2017: 6.2
2018: 0.4

His other performance, outside of that consistent decline, has been up and down on various pitches. In 2016 he struggled against Sliders, in 2017 he was the best in his career against sliders and changeups and splitfinger pitches, against those offspeed pitches he's gone back to doing things within the range of what he's done every other year. He's a little weak on sliders, but was worse against them in 2016. Basically though, the reason he's struggling abnormally so far is that he's getting worse against fastballs year by year.

[Chicago White Sox]

18 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So, interestingly, I did find one thing in Abreu's stats that has clearly trended down year after year and is consistent with him actually showing an age-related decline. Here's his runs above average against 4 seam fastballs year after year:

2014: 21.6
2015: 18.4
2016: 12.4
2017: 6.2
2018: 0.4

His other performance, outside of that consistent decline, has been up and down on various pitches. In 2016 he struggled against Sliders, in 2017 he was the best in his career against sliders and changeups and splitfinger pitches, against those offspeed pitches he's gone back to doing things within the range of what he's done every other year. He's a little weak on sliders, but was worse against them in 2016. Basically though, the reason he's struggling abnormally so far is that he's getting worse against fastballs year by year.

Can you explain how the statistic is calculated and why there may not be embedded biases in terms of how pitchers are attacking him?

[Chicago White Sox]

First multi-hit day in 13 games for  Abreu apparently.  Hopefully a sign of things to come.

[Heads22]

Standard Batting

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	IBB	Awards
1994	26	CHW	AL	113	106	141	34	38	101	109	61	.353	.487	.729	1.217	212	12	AS,MVP-1,SS
1995	27	CHW	AL	145	102	152	27	40	111	136	74	.308	.454	.606	1.061	179	29	AS,MVP-8
1996	28	CHW	AL	141	110	184	26	40	134	109	70	.349	.459	.626	1.085	178	26	AS,MVP-8
1997	29	CHW	AL	146	110	184	35	35	125	109	69	.347	.456	.611	1.067	181	9	AS,MVP-3

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/27/2018.

 

[BlackSox13]

6 minutes ago, Heads22 said:

Standard Batting

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	IBB	Awards
1994	26	CHW	AL	113	106	141	34	38	101	109	61	.353	.487	.729	1.217	212	12	AS,MVP-1,SS
1995	27	CHW	AL	145	102	152	27	40	111	136	74	.308	.454	.606	1.061	179	29	AS,MVP-8
1996	28	CHW	AL	141	110	184	26	40	134	109	70	.349	.459	.626	1.085	178	26	AS,MVP-8
1997	29	CHW	AL	146	110	184	35	35	125	109	69	.347	.456	.611	1.067	181	9	AS,MVP-3

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/27/2018.

 

As much as I like Abreu he can't touch those numbers. 

[ron883]

12 minutes ago, Heads22 said:

Standard Batting

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	IBB	Awards
1994	26	CHW	AL	113	106	141	34	38	101	109	61	.353	.487	.729	1.217	212	12	AS,MVP-1,SS
1995	27	CHW	AL	145	102	152	27	40	111	136	74	.308	.454	.606	1.061	179	29	AS,MVP-8
1996	28	CHW	AL	141	110	184	26	40	134	109	70	.349	.459	.626	1.085	178	26	AS,MVP-8
1997	29	CHW	AL	146	110	184	35	35	125	109	69	.347	.456	.611	1.067	181	9	AS,MVP-3

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/27/2018.

 

PTATC, could you take a look at these numbers and let us know what's going on? Is this better than Abreu?

[Chicago White Sox]

5 minutes ago, BlackSox13 said:

As much as I like Abreu he can't touch those numbers. 

Frank’s 1994 might be the best non-steroid fueled offensive season of all-time.

[BlackSox13]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Frank’s 1994 might be the best non-steroid fueled offensive season of all-time.

Absolutely! He was an all star most years but other worldly in 1994. Amazing batting eye for a man with such a big strike zone.

[fathom]

13 minutes ago, BlackSox13 said:

Absolutely! He was an all star most years but other worldly in 1994. Amazing batting eye for a man with such a big strike zone.

I will never forgive him for forcing our left handed slugger to go play in Japan

[Dam8610]

1 hour ago, Hot FiRe said:

PTATC, could you take a look at these numbers and let us know what's going on? Is this better than Abreu?

If you have to use Hall of Famers to find better hitters than a hitter you're speaking about, you're probably speaking about a very good hitter.

[greg775]

Frank's one of my favorite Sox of all time. But for a four-year stretch, I bet u only Frank, and maybe Robin and Baines had as consistently productive a four-year span (when you use regular stats BA, HR, RBI.

[Sticky Stuff]

1 minute ago, greg775 said:

Frank's one of my favorite Sox of all time. But for a four-year stretch, I bet u only Frank, and maybe Robin and Baines had as consistently productive a four-year span (when you use regular stats BA, HR, RBI.

Konerko 2004-2007

[greg775]

Just now, DH in the NL said:

Konerko 2004-2007

Damn I forgot Paulie. I worshiped him.

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, greg775 said:

Frank's one of my favorite Sox of all time. But for a four-year stretch, I bet u only Frank, and maybe Robin and Baines had as consistently productive a four-year span (when you use regular stats BA, HR, RBI.

As long as you never, ever, ever say again that "Maybe this guy not named Frank Thomas had the best hitting stretch in White Sox history" we will have accomplished something today.

(Shoeless joe was also better).

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

First multi-hit day in 13 games for  Abreu apparently.  Hopefully a sign of things to come.

Had another ball well hit up the middle the pitcher was lucky to deflect... 

[SoxAce]

8 hours ago, DH in the NL said:

Konerko 2004-2007

Hell, Magglio 2000-03 was even better.

[Bob Sacamano]

14 hours ago, greg775 said:

Read the posts. You guys can say all you want how nobody "hates" Abreu but if you read every Abreu post there's definitely an air of negativity regarding him. I understand completely your guys' points about his projection in the future and age. I just don't agree.

Only 2 years of control...you somehow keep overlooking the biggest point: his contract expires before our competitive window.

[Balta1701]

11 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Can you explain how the statistic is calculated and why there may not be embedded biases in terms of how pitchers are attacking him?

This is simply "statcast recognizes this pitch as a fastball/slider/etc., what is the end result". There's about 8 different versions of it on Fangraphs and all of them show the same thing; he's getting progressively weaker against fastballs every single year. You can see the end result of this in the numbers overall too; he's gradually seeing fewer and fewer changeups and more fastballs as pitchers are exploiting this developing weakness, 10% of the pitches thrown to him his first year were changeups, now only 6% are. The average velocity of fastball he's seeing has not changed, from 93.6 in 2014 to 93.5 this year, he's just gotten worse against them.

To say it a different way, this is the equivalent of him having a 131 RC+ against fastballs in 2014 and a 101 RC+ against them now.

This stands out enough that it's made me change my mind. Last offseason after his performance I was willing to extend him for several years, but seeing these numbers yesterday - he's gradually dropped from a great hitter to a replacement level hitter against fastballs. If I would have extended him, that would have been a $50 million+ mistake. The only way he can stay a good hitter if he can't catch up to the fastball is to get gradually better against every other pitch, and there's no sign he can do that. Unless this career long trend is turned around, and as of 2018 it has not, in a year or two he will no longer be a useful big league hitter, and choosing not to offer him a contract extension was a good move. 

[Chicago White Sox]

24 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

This is simply "statcast recognizes this pitch as a fastball/slider/etc., what is the end result". There's about 8 different versions of it on Fangraphs and all of them show the same thing; he's getting progressively weaker against fastballs every single year. You can see the end result of this in the numbers overall too; he's gradually seeing fewer and fewer changeups and more fastballs as pitchers are exploiting this developing weakness, 10% of the pitches thrown to him his first year were changeups, now only 6% are. The average velocity of fastball he's seeing has not changed, from 93.6 in 2014 to 93.5 this year, he's just gotten worse against them.

To say it a different way, this is the equivalent of him having a 131 RC+ against fastballs in 2014 and a 101 RC+ against them now.

This stands out enough that it's made me change my mind. Last offseason after his performance I was willing to extend him for several years, but seeing these numbers yesterday - he's gradually dropped from a great hitter to a replacement level hitter against fastballs. If I would have extended him, that would have been a $50 million+ mistake. The only way he can stay a good hitter if he can't catch up to the fastball is to get gradually better against every other pitch, and there's no sign he can do that. Unless this career long trend is turned around, and as of 2018 it has not, in a year or two he will no longer be a useful big league hitter, and choosing not to offer him a contract extension was a good move. 

Again, how do you know pitchers are simply no longer challenging Jose with fastballs and throwing more heaters out of the zone?  When he came to the states, he was rumored to have “slider” bat speed and quickly put that theory to bed.  I’m still skeptical you are using these numbers appropriately.  Also, I’m not sure where you came up with the idea he’s seeing more and more fastballs, as that’s simply not true, at least in terms of 4 seamers which your stats are based on.

[steveno89]

12 hours ago, BlackSox13 said:

I'll have some of what Bowen is having X2!

Yeah, not in the least bit interested unless the return package starts with O'Neill or at least Hudson. 

It's not a terrible trade suggestion, especially if the Sox do not have top kick in any of Abreu's salary, but I think they would be looking for a bit more upside if they are dealing him. Helsley might continue to develop into a backend starter, and Martinez is serviceable, but this wouldn't excite me much. 

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Again, how do you know pitchers are simply no longer challenging Jose with fastballs and throwing more heaters out of the zone?  When he came to the states, he was rumored to have “slider” bat speed and quickly put that theory to bed.  I’m still skeptical you are using these numbers appropriately.  Also, I’m not sure where you came up with the idea he’s seeing more and more fastballs, as that’s simply not true, at least in terms of 4 seamers which your stats are based on.

Because for that to be the case and for that to be why his numbers are going down, he'd have to be swinging at more balls outside the strike zone, which is also not the case. He's simply doing less damage against the standard fastball. Perhaps he did not have a slider speed bat when he came in, but he's no longer hitting fastballs as anything other than a replacement level player.

Perhaps a swing overhaul could delay this. This might be one of those cases where a guy could substantially extend his career by changing his stance and opening up, so that his body is moving more towards the pitch as part of the trigger mechanism. But as of right now, this is why his numbers have gone progressively down; he's slowing down progressively as he ages and can't catch up with the fastball any more.

[ptatc]

12 hours ago, Hot FiRe said:

PTATC, could you take a look at these numbers and let us know what's going on? Is this better than Abreu?

Sorry, my expertise is in sports medicine. 

[greg775]

3 hours ago, SoxAce said:

Hell, Magglio 2000-03 was even better.

So you guys are proving me right. I said only a few guys on the Sox could have had a better four year run. I've read you guys mention a few guys which is what I said. I give up. Abreu has joined the ranks of a guy Sox fans, at least on this board, don't want around any more. They don't want him to share in the fun when we get good even though he's contributed so much to the horseshit teams. Nobody will just let his contract run out and see what happens they want him gone cause he would need a new contract to fit our competitive window. Nobody wants that except a few of us, so bye bye Jose.  Many of you are OK pretty much giving him away cause of his age, get him out of here.

Considering he's only worth scraps, why trade him at all? Let his contract run out and see what happens. So what if he's one guy, who just walks in free agency. Nobody's going to offer him much if it's true he's finished. Considering what you all are reporting on his decline and imminent decline, he could be signed for a reasonable contract.