Astros interested in Abreu?

[Quin]

I'm pretty sure the more Ron hates on Abreu for no apparent reason, the better Abreu becomes.

Him not being as good as Frank is the worst argument yet. In the game today there's...Mike Trout.

[greg775]

3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

This is simply "statcast recognizes this pitch as a fastball/slider/etc., what is the end result". There's about 8 different versions of it on Fangraphs and all of them show the same thing; he's getting progressively weaker against fastballs every single year. You can see the end result of this in the numbers overall too; he's gradually seeing fewer and fewer changeups and more fastballs as pitchers are exploiting this developing weakness, 10% of the pitches thrown to him his first year were changeups, now only 6% are. The average velocity of fastball he's seeing has not changed, from 93.6 in 2014 to 93.5 this year, he's just gotten worse against them.

To say it a different way, this is the equivalent of him having a 131 RC+ against fastballs in 2014 and a 101 RC+ against them now.

This stands out enough that it's made me change my mind. Last offseason after his performance I was willing to extend him for several years, but seeing these numbers yesterday - he's gradually dropped from a great hitter to a replacement level hitter against fastballs. If I would have extended him, that would have been a $50 million+ mistake. The only way he can stay a good hitter if he can't catch up to the fastball is to get gradually better against every other pitch, and there's no sign he can do that. Unless this career long trend is turned around, and as of 2018 it has not, in a year or two he will no longer be a useful big league hitter, and choosing not to offer him a contract extension was a good move. 

And if you have noticed all of this, new-wave general managers know this all as well and Jose is effectively done. So why not let his contract run out and try to sign him for 5-10 million a year? If he's rapidly becoming as you say a "replacement level hitter" then what's the big deal. If you trade him you are only getting organizational fodder, lousy prospects. Let the contract run out and sign him for scraps. It's not that complicated. Again ... you looked up the facts/stats. Other teams haven't?? They know he's a replacement level hitter so they will offer the Sox 2-3 stiffs to acquire him at best. For some reason you guys don't just want to let his contract run out.

Edited June 28, 2018 by greg775

[Jose Abreu]

2 minutes ago, Quinarvy said:

Him not being as good as Frank is the worst argument yet.

Nope he's not a hall of famer so that means he sucks. Get with the program

[greg775]

1 hour ago, ptatc said:

Sorry, my expertise is in sports medicine. 

I think his post was mocking me for praising you so much and wanting your opinion.

[hogan873]

7 minutes ago, greg775 said:

So you guys are proving me right. I said only a few guys on the Sox could have had a better four year run. I've read you guys mention a few guys which is what I said. I give up. Abreu has joined the ranks of a guy Sox fans, at least on this board, don't want around any more. They don't want him to share in the fun when we get good even though he's contributed so much to the horseshit teams. Nobody will just let his contract run out and see what happens they want him gone cause he would need a new contract to fit our competitive window. Nobody wants that except a few of us, so bye bye Jose.  Many of you are OK pretty much giving him away cause of his age, get him out of here.

Considering he's only worth scraps, why trade him at all? Let his contract run out and see what happens. So what if he's one guy, who just walks in free agency. Nobody's going to offer him much if it's true he's finished. Considering what you all are reporting on his decline and imminent decline, he could be signed for a reasonable contract.

For god's sake.  Why is everything so over the top with you?  I don't know if anyone said he's only worth scraps.  Those in favor of a trade are advocating so because he's still worth something now.  He's a very good hitter, a serviceable first baseman, and a great clubhouse guy.  The caution is that if anyone is expecting an Eaton-type return, they're going to be disappointed.  That's not a knock on his ability as much as it's saying what teams will be willing to pay.  That's it.  Personally, I'd like the Sox to work out an extension with Jose so he can be around for the competitive years.  I believe that 3-4 years at $15 million per is fair.  His offense and what he brings to the clubhouse for the young guys makes him worth that.

All that being said, letting his contract run out is probably the last thing the Sox should do.  If they have the intention to trade him, they need to do it now.  Otherwise, they should look for an opportunity to extend him.

[Bob Sacamano]

18 minutes ago, greg775 said:

So you guys are proving me right. I said only a few guys on the Sox could have had a better four year run. I've read you guys mention a few guys which is what I said. I give up. Abreu has joined the ranks of a guy Sox fans, at least on this board, don't want around any more. They don't want him to share in the fun when we get good even though he's contributed so much to the horseshit teams. Nobody will just let his contract run out and see what happens they want him gone cause he would need a new contract to fit our competitive window. Nobody wants that except a few of us, so bye bye Jose.  Many of you are OK pretty much giving him away cause of his age, get him out of here.

Considering he's only worth scraps, why trade him at all? Let his contract run out and see what happens. So what if he's one guy, who just walks in free agency. Nobody's going to offer him much if it's true he's finished. Considering what you all are reporting on his decline and imminent decline, he could be signed for a reasonable contract.

You keep spinning in circles lol

Edited June 28, 2018 by soxfan2014

[greg775]

7 minutes ago, hogan873 said:

For god's sake.  Why is everything so over the top with you?  I don't know if anyone said he's only worth scraps.  Those in favor of a trade are advocating so because he's still worth something now.  He's a very good hitter, a serviceable first baseman, and a great clubhouse guy.  The caution is that if anyone is expecting an Eaton-type return, they're going to be disappointed.  That's not a knock on his ability as much as it's saying what teams will be willing to pay.  That's it.  Personally, I'd like the Sox to work out an extension with Jose so he can be around for the competitive years.  I believe that 3-4 years at $15 million per is fair.  His offense and what he brings to the clubhouse for the young guys makes him worth that.

All that being said, letting his contract run out is probably the last thing the Sox should do.  If they have the intention to trade him, they need to do it now.  Otherwise, they should look for an opportunity to extend him.

Balta has stats that prove when his contract runs out he's a replacement level player. Basically worthless. Considering other teams study new wave stats as well, you are getting NOTHING for him via trade. He can't hit a fastball anymore. So why would anybody want him? Let his contract run out and sign him to a deal way below 3-4 years at 15 million per year. Again ... are the Sox the only smart team? If Sox fans have deduced he's turning into crap think other teams are going to offer anything but Trayce/Engle type prospects?? They study the same stats. Yes I feel he's daily being dogged on in this thread.

Edited June 28, 2018 by greg775

[Bob Sacamano]

7 minutes ago, Tony said:

So if he can't hit a fastball anymore......why do you want to sign him to a new deal? 

#greglogic

[tray]

9 minutes ago, Tony said:

So if he can't hit a fastball anymore......why do you want to sign him to a new deal? 

That's not what he said . He is commenting on his potential value.

If Abreu is not going to bring back an elite level prospect, no reason to trade him.

Then why would the Sox want to sign him.? Any Sox fan knows the answer to that.

 

[greg775]

1 minute ago, tray said:

That's not what he said . He is commenting on his potential value.

If Abreu is not going to bring back an elite level prospect, no reason to trade him.

Then why would the Sox want to sign him.? Any Sox fan knows the answer to that.

 

I endorse this post.

[southsider2k5]

If he can't hit a fastball and is in decline, why is he worth an elite prospect?

[greg775]

57 minutes ago, Tony said:

So if he can't hit a fastball anymore......why do you want to sign him to a new deal? 

I don't trust the advanced stats he cited. I think he can hit a fastball.

[greg775]

15 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

If he can't hit a fastball and is in decline, why is he worth an elite prospect?

I don't know what he's worth in trade. I don't want to find out. I want him to be an integral cog in the WS teams.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

15 hours ago, Heads22 said:

Standard Batting

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	IBB	Awards
1994	26	CHW	AL	113	106	141	34	38	101	109	61	.353	.487	.729	1.217	212	12	AS,MVP-1,SS
1995	27	CHW	AL	145	102	152	27	40	111	136	74	.308	.454	.606	1.061	179	29	AS,MVP-8
1996	28	CHW	AL	141	110	184	26	40	134	109	70	.349	.459	.626	1.085	178	26	AS,MVP-8
1997	29	CHW	AL	146	110	184	35	35	125	109	69	.347	.456	.611	1.067	181	9	AS,MVP-3

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/27/2018.

 

Why list just those 4 years ? Might as well just list his first 8 years in the league and make it 2 separate 4 year periods when Frank averaged

.330

.452

.600

1.053

182

Batting average  OBP  SLG  OPS and OPS+

[Chicago White Sox]

3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Because for that to be the case and for that to be why his numbers are going down, he'd have to be swinging at more balls outside the strike zone, which is also not the case. He's simply doing less damage against the standard fastball. Perhaps he did not have a slider speed bat when he came in, but he's no longer hitting fastballs as anything other than a replacement level player.

Perhaps a swing overhaul could delay this. This might be one of those cases where a guy could substantially extend his career by changing his stance and opening up, so that his body is moving more towards the pitch as part of the trigger mechanism. But as of right now, this is why his numbers have gone progressively down; he's slowing down progressively as he ages and can't catch up with the fastball any more.

I'm still skeptical of your theory and how you're using that pitch value metric.  I was hoping to find exit velocity by pitch type, but unfortunately Brooks Baseball doesn't have that info available for recent years.  However, I fully disagree with your idea that he's trending down as a hitter.  So far in 2018, he has the highest exit velocity & hard hit % since Statcast data became available (so only excluding his rookie season) along with the 2nd highest barrel % in this time period.  More importantly, this year he's putting up his highest xwOBA during this time period, which is far more similar to his 2017 production than his 2016 & 2015 output. 

So if he's somehow losing bat speed (which I still haven't seen proof of), he must be making huge strides in his ability to recognize & do damage against offspeed pitches & breaking balls because the Statcast data suggests he's an improving hitter.  Again, I think you're misusing the pitch value statistic based on Fangraph's disclaimers below.  From what I can tell, the statistic measures absolute production against a certain pitch and NOT ability against a pitch.  If Jose were to get more heaters out of the zone and not swing at them, his pitch value for the four seamer would naturally go down.  That does NOT mean his bat speed has decreased or that he's replacement level against fastballs.  And given how much damage he did against fastballs his first two years, it's only natural to assume pitchers would stop challenging Jose with fastballs in the zone and use offspead or breaking balls against him when they're in a pinch.

Edited June 28, 2018 by Chicago White Sox

[greg775]

14 minutes ago, Tony said:

Why don't you trust them? Why do you think he will still be able to hit the fastball two years from now? 

 

I'm not even saying you're 100% wrong, I want to know how and why you are forming those opinions. 

I guess just cause I'm a fan and he's one of my favorite players and I want him to be on our WS teams. Just fan related stuff. 

On another Jose topic, let's say you are just a fan like me. Don't even consider trading him. Let his contract simply run out and then let him be a free agent and see what happens. You don't have to trade every player out of fear you can't sign him, especially a team with as many prospects as we have. Then he's a free agent. If he really is becoming worthless, you sign him to a 3-year deal at 8 mill a year or something. No big deal. Fans like me have their hero around and we win WS with him enjoying it as well as the young studs.

Now lets say you are a stat guy who has deduced he can't hit a fastball and is about done and certainly not worthy of being on a WS team. Let the contract run out also. Why trade him? Other teams aren't going to offer anything but crap. Then he's a free agent, either sign him out of mercy for bargain money or let him walk. What's the big deal? The common denominator is keep him. There's absolutely no reason to trade the guy whether you are a.) an unabashed fan not wanting to hear he's declining or b.) a guy who has checked the facts, figures and deduced he's replacement player level.

What is so hard to understand about my arguments?

Edited June 28, 2018 by greg775

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

1 minute ago, greg775 said:

I guess just cause I'm a fan and he's one of my favorite players and I want him to be on our WS teams. Just fan related stuff. 

On another Jose topic, let's say you are just a fan like me. Don't even consider trading him. Let his contract simply run out and then let him be a free agent and see what happens. You don't have to trade every player out of fear you can't sign him, especially a team with as many prospects as we have. Then he's a free agent. If he really is becoming worthless, you sign him to a 3-year deal at 8 mill a year or something. No big deal. Fans like me have their hero around and we win WS with him enjoying it as well as the young studs.

Now lets say you are a stat guy who has deduced he can't hit a fastball and is about done and certainly not worthy of being on a WS team. Let the contract run out also. Why trade him? Other teams aren't going to offer anything but crap. Then he's a free agent, either sign him out of mercy for bargain money or let him walk. What's the big deal? The common denominator is keep him. There's absolutely no reason to trade the guy whether you are a.) an unabashed fan not wanting to hear he's declining or b.) a guy who has checked the facts, figures and deduced he's replacement player level.

What is so hard to understand about my arguments.

That you left out there's a chance we get a interesting prospect back..  (Incert GIF of guy with stupid face looking around)

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Fangraphs had an article on June 8th about Paul Goldschmidt not hitting 95+ 4seamers very well this year and listed the 13 worst. ABreu wasn;t on that list https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/paul-goldschmidts-troubles-with-velocity/

Fangraphs gets a lot of that info from Baseball Savant. Maybe Jose is on it now , maybe Goldschmidt is  off that list. My point being that in a small sample anyone can look really bad or really good.

I know Balta is tracking something over an extended period of time but if that stat has dropped so precipitously why haven't his stats had just as bad a drop ?Sure his career year probably was his 1st year but he hasn't been terrible. He think he was tested a lot his 1st year. Pitchers threw hit a lot of heat and he proved he could hit the heat. Over the years its been a series of adjustment by pitchers and Jose  like its been for many years for many players

Maybe the trend is again to throw him fastballs and again we will see if Jose makes an adjustment. I surely expect him to be much better the 2nd half but if he isn't its possible Balta has something here. But while I suspect Jose will make an adjustment , sooner or later time will catch up to him and although its ugly to many of us looking for clues to when a true decline starts its the nature of the business . If you want to win trades that's what you do . It's not always the knowledge that gives you the power its the correct evaluation of the knowledge that matters most. We will see but eventually someone will be right when they say he's going downhill .

Edited June 28, 2018 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
typo

[BlackSox13]

Abreu just stuck out on a 92mph fastball while I'm reading this thread. 

 

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Fangraphs had an article on June 8th about Paul Goldschmidt not hitting 95+ 4seamers very well this year and listed the 13 worst. ABreu wasn;t on that list https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/paul-goldschmidts-troubles-with-velocity/

Fangraphs gets a lot of that info from Baseball Savant. Maybe Jose is on it now , maybe Goldschmidt is  off that list. My point being that in a small sample anyone can look really bad or really good.

I know Balta is tracking something over an extended period of time but if that stat has dropped so precipitously why haven't his stats had just as bad a drop ?Sure his career year probably was his 1st year but he hasn't been terrible. He think he was tested a lot his 1st year. Pitchers threw hit a lot of heat and he proved he could hit the heat. Over the years its been a series of adjustment by pitchers and Jose  like its been for many years for many players

Maybe the trend is again to throw him fastballs and again we will see if Jose makes an adjustment. I surely expect him to be much better the 2nd half but if he isn't its possible Balta has something here. But while I suspect Jose will make an adjustment , sooner or later time will catch up to him and although its ugly to many of us looking for clues to when a true decline starts its the nature of the business . If you want to win trades that's what you do . It's not always the knowledge that gives you the power its the correct evaluation of the knowledge that matters most. We will see but eventually someone will be right when they say he's going downhill .

His stats have had a progressive drop. He did what he needed to do last year to offset it, which was be excessively good on every offspeed pitch, but he hasn't continued that this year so the interruption in the progressive dropoff that was 2017 has continued in 2018, and the dropoff against fastballs has continued as well.

[Chicago White Sox]

20 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

His stats have had a progressive drop. He did what he needed to do last year to offset it, which was be excessively good on every offspeed pitch, but he hasn't continued that this year so the interruption in the progressive dropoff that was 2017 has continued in 2018, and the dropoff against fastballs has continued as well.

You still haven’t addressed the points / questions in my recent post.  Still think you’re misinterpreting that statistic and drawing incorrect conclusions.

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You still haven’t addressed the points / questions in my recent post.  Still think you’re misinterpreting that statistic and drawing incorrect conclusions.

You're dancing around the data to avoid the obvious - that his decline is in fact real. However, let's take your hypothesis on its face - that the reason he is performing worse against fastballs is that pitchers are attacking him differently. This is, once again, a 5 year trend line. If his decline against fastballs is due to pitchers working him a different way, then is there any reason to assume he will pop back from his decline? No, pitchers will continue attacking a weakness that he has failed to adapt to over a multi-year period, and will continue to be more effective in the attack as they have been through his career.

Furthermore, I did not ignore the other pitch data in the process, I noted it. Last year, in 2017, he did what he had to do to be a good hitter while becoming progressively worse against fastballs. However, as we've seen, that improved performance against sliders and other offspeed pitches has not continued in 2018, which is strong evidence that the 2017 performance was a one year blip upwards that made his data look better than it otherwise would have been.

To continue the case, over his career, his OPS is .807 against what B-R counts as "power pitchers" - pitchers in the top 1/3 of the league in strikeouts + walks. This is somewhat lower than his career OPS of .874, but the important thing is that it's once again trending down. Started at .924 his first year, was at .818 in year 2, .751 in year 3, .809 in year 4, and .615 this year. In his first 2 seasons there was no obvious bias towards him struggling against power pitchers, but in the past 3 seasons a strong bias has emerged where he hits guys with low strikeout totals far worse than he hits guys with high strikeout totals. 

[greg775]

2 hours ago, Tony said:

So by your logic, you've proclaimed "Stats and information be damned, I want Jose Abreu on my team because I like what he did for the team four years ago. I believe he'll be able to hit a fastball at age 34, because I saw him do it with my own eyes at age 27. I don't care what anyone says to me, I don't care what data is put in front of me, I'm a fan and I love my White Sox." 

Now, that would be a bad enough argument as is, but if that was your entire shtick, I think a lot of us would let it slide. Whatever, you're just a rah-rah fan and that's it. But that's not the role you have decided to play on this board. You're the guy that always is whining about ticket prices, how much parking costs, the front office is a bunch of criminals, they don't sign anyone good, you don't understand why they don't win more. 

Do you see the connection here? You admit you want the front office to make an irrational decision solely based on your "fandom", yet openly criticize that same front office for poor signings. If you want it both ways, expect responses like this. 

I really don't think people want to hear long responses from me, so I'll try to keep it short but you guys make it difficult peppering me with questions.

a.) I don't say stats and information be damned, but I also don't think Balta's stat guarantees Abreu soon will be a replacement level stiff. I still go by emotion and I say part of his possible decline is and will be playing for such a hopeless team/organization. It has to be difficult excelling day in and out playing for a yearly loser.

b.) In regards to your third paragraph, you say I want the front office to make an irrational decision based on my fandom. Geez. Quite a take by you. An irrational decision?? How dare you. Let's see what my irrational decision regarding Abreu is: to let his contract run out and to actually let him become a free agent instead of "flipping him" at the break this year for what all of you agree will be a horsecrap return! It's irrational to let his contract run out, then join the rest of the teams in assesssing his value and trying to sign him if the front office deems it's not too much money for projected production?? So if we are just accepting Balta's observation as 100 percent fact and indicator of Abreu's future, please get his post to all the sportswriters; please send to Hahn via email now. They WILL WANT this information if it is correct.

Yes I base my decision on keeping him because as a fan I WANT HIM TO BE ON THE WS teams. Guess what? His intangibles will HELP US WIN. He is beloved by the players and can help them and relate to them. I will not apologize for being a fan that wants him on the team. He will have his usual great numbers before this year is over unless he succumbs to all the losing. I can't believe I have to defend Abreu so much. The man is an all star! Geez. It's not like I'm wasting your time saying this about Engle or Trayce Thompson or Narvaez or some stiff. THIS IS ABREU!

Edited June 28, 2018 by greg775

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

You're dancing around the data to avoid the obvious - that his decline is in fact real. However, let's take your hypothesis on its face - that the reason he is performing worse against fastballs is that pitchers are attacking him differently. This is, once again, a 5 year trend line. If his decline against fastballs is due to pitchers working him a different way, then is there any reason to assume he will pop back from his decline? No, pitchers will continue attacking a weakness that he has failed to adapt to over a multi-year period, and will continue to be more effective in the attack as they have been through his career.

 Furthermore, I did not ignore the other pitch data in the process, I noted it. Last year, in 2017, he did what he had to do to be a good hitter while becoming progressively worse against fastballs. However, as we've seen, that improved performance against sliders and other offspeed pitches has not continued in 2018, which is strong evidence that the 2017 performance was a one year blip upwards that made his data look better than it otherwise would have been.

To continue the case, over his career, his OPS is .807 against what B-R counts as "power pitchers" - pitchers in the top 1/3 of the league in strikeouts + walks. This is somewhat lower than his career OPS of .874, but the important thing is that it's once again trending down. Started at .924 his first year, was at .818 in year 2, .751 in year 3, .809 in year 4, and .615 this year. In his first 2 seasons there was no obvious bias towards him struggling against power pitchers, but in the past 3 seasons a strong bias has emerged where he hits guys with low strikeout totals far worse than he hits guys with high strikeout totals. 

Dancing around the data?  You couldn't even respond to my post that included Statcast metrics that suggests he's a better hitter in 2018 & 2017 than he was in 2016 & 2015.  How do you explain that exactly, especially the 2018 results?  I'm looking into your points above and will respond later tonight.  

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

36 minutes ago, greg775 said:

I really don't think people want to hear long responses from me, so I'll try to keep it short but you guys make it difficult peppering me with questions.

a.) I don't say stats and information be damned, but I also don't think Balta's stat guarantees Abreu soon will be a replacement level stiff. I still go by emotion and I say part of his possible decline is and will be playing for such a hopeless team/organization. It has to be difficult excelling day in and out playing for a yearly loser.

b.) In regards to your third paragraph, you say I want the front office to make an irrational decision based on my fandom. Geez. Quite a take by you. An irrational decision?? How dare you. Let's see what my irrational decision regarding Abreu is: to let his contract run out and to actually let him become a free agent instead of "flipping him" at the break this year for what all of you agree will be a horsecrap return! It's irrational to let his contract run out, then join the rest of the teams in assesssing his value and trying to sign him if the front office deems it's not too much money for projected production?? So if we are just accepting Balta's observation as 100 percent fact and indicator of Abreu's future, please get his post to all the sportswriters; please send to Hahn via email now. They WILL WANT this information if it is correct.

Yes I base my decision on keeping him because as a fan I WANT HIM TO BE ON THE WS teams. Guess what? His intangibles will HELP US WIN. He is beloved by the players and can help them and relate to them. I will not apologize for being a fan that wants him on the team. He will have his usual great numbers before this year is over unless he succumbs to all the losing. I can't believe I have to defend Abreu so much. The man is an all star! Geez. It's not like I'm wasting your time saying this about Engle or Trayce Thompson or Narvaez or some stiff. THIS IS ABREU!

You continue and continue to quoute "our world series teams"... Dear lord do you really not understand how hard it is to get there?  You make it sound like it's inevitable.  It drives me insane.