Bob Sacamano Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 1 hour ago, greg775 said: It's going to be great when all our players are between 24 and 28 years old and there's no more talk of trades. You can say what you want about "nobody hates Abreu" on this board but there's a general malaise about Abreu, that he's basically finished. He's too old in the eyes of fans who pore over all the advanced stats. I don't know why fans think we're going to get anything for Abreu then. Are you all smarter than GMs throughout baseball? If he's too old for you don't you think he's too old for the other GMs? What's left is giving him away for 3 guys who will never sniff the majors. Weird world. Continues to beat a dead horse... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 (edited) 4 minutes ago, greg775 said: I don't know why some of you guys think a veteran like Abreu won't have tremendous value to the Sox on the field and in the clubhouse. I'd say this board consists of the Sox most passionate fans and for the most part the most stat savvy fans and I think we can conclude "most" of you won't lose any sleep over trading Abreu. It makes very little sense to me because as we've seen in Moncada and Lopez and Gio, these guys are all potentially fine players but to tell you the truth, Abreu's stats the past four years are close to the ceiling of what you should "expect" from Robert, Rutherford, all those studs we have now. Maybe Eloy is projected to do a bit better. My gawd. Go back to any page and I'm sure someone has given you a reasonable explanation on that page. I'm tired of repeating myself. At this point, it's your own fault for not understanding our reasoning that you keep ignoring (seriously get checked out because your short term memory is horrible apparently). Edited June 27, 2018 by soxfan2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sticky Stuff Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 9 minutes ago, greg775 said: I don't know why some of you guys think a veteran like Abreu won't have tremendous value to the Sox on the field and in the clubhouse. I'd say this board consists of the Sox most passionate fans and for the most part the most stat savvy fans and I think we can conclude "most" of you won't lose any sleep over trading Abreu. It makes very little sense to me because as we've seen in Moncada and Lopez and Gio, these guys are all potentially fine players but to tell you the truth, Abreu's stats the past four years are close to the ceiling of what you should "expect" from Robert, Rutherford, all those studs we have now. Maybe Eloy is projected to do a bit better. The best player on a shit team is meaningless. His value is on the field for a team ready to win now. Not a rebuilding team. 75% or more of the guys on the Sox right now will not be on the team when the rebuild is over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 1 hour ago, Balta1701 said: During the month of April he put up a .267 BABIP and a .827 OPS. During May, he put up a .390 BABIP and a .933 OPS. During June, he put up a .243 BABIP and a .599 OPS. So yeah, when you picked him right at the top of an unsustainable hot streak, it didn't look unsustainable. It looks like, thanks to May being hot and June balancing it out, he's right back to the hitter he was in 2016, which you're telling me is an exception he won't match again. Below are Jose’s stats for April/May of 2018, FY 2017, & his career averages: BB %: 6.6% / 5.2% / 6.4% K %: 18.0% / 17.6% / 19.3% BABIP: .331 / .330 / .332 ISO: .224 / .248 / .221 OPS: .882 / .906 / .873 wRC+: 140 / 138 / 136 Which stats suggest an unsustainable hot streak or a sudden aging? His BABIP good luck in May simply offset his bad luck in April. Again, I really think you’re reaching here. Jose looked really damn good those first couple months. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: Below are Jose’s stats for April/May of 2018, FY 2017, & his career averages: BB %: 6.6% / 5.2% / 6.4% K %: 18.0% / 17.6% / 19.3% BABIP: .331 / .330 / .332 ISO: .224 / .248 / .221 OPS: .882 / .906 / .873 wRC+: 140 / 138 / 136 Which stats suggest an unsustainable hot streak or a sudden aging? His BABIP good luck in May simply offset his bad luck in April. Again, I really think you’re reaching here. Jose looked really damn good those first couple months. No one said anything about "Sudden aging". I certainly don't think he's going to put up a .599 OPS for the rest of the season. The guy is doing right now slightly worse than he did in 2016. His good luck in May offsets his bad luck in June. I think he'll be slightly better than this for the rest of the season, but that's a low to at best mid-800s OPS hitter, which is a good hitter but not great, and which is a fair summary of what he's been his entire career with the White Sox. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: No one said anything about "Sudden aging". I certainly don't think he's going to put up a .599 OPS for the rest of the season. The guy is doing right now slightly worse than he did in 2016. His good luck in May offsets his bad luck in June. I think he'll be slightly better than this for the rest of the season, but that's a low to at best mid-800s OPS hitter, which is a good hitter but not great, and which is a fair summary of what he's been his entire career with the White Sox. Lol...what? 36% above league average is good not great? There are literally 24 qualified hitters in baseball above that threshold right now. Whatever dude, I’m not wasting any more time on this. I think you are completely off-base here if you think his 2016 season is reflective of anything. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: Lol...what? 36% above league average is good not great? There are literally 24 qualified hitters in baseball above that threshold right now. Whatever dude, I’m not wasting any more time on this. I think you are completely off-base here if you think his 2016 season is reflective of anything. I mean I don't really have a strong position here either way but his rookie year is clearly an outlier. His career wRC+ of 136 has come in a career in which he's produced exactly one season above a wRC+ of 136 -- his rookie year. I don't really see any reason we should weight that year equally with his more recent ones or this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: Lol...what? 36% above league average is good not great? There are literally 24 qualified hitters in baseball above that threshold right now. Whatever dude, I’m not wasting any more time on this. I think you are completely off-base here if you think his 2016 season is reflective of anything. When his 2016 and 1/3 of his 2018 seasons aren't reflective of anything, you're starting to reject a substantial portion of his career. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 Just now, Balta1701 said: When his 2016 and 1/3 of his 2018 seasons aren't reflective of anything, you're starting to reject a substantial portion of his career. And when you ignore his positional adjustment and negative defensive value you're really rejecting a substantial part of his value. It is what it is man. Fans love to over rate corner sluggers. For years GMs did as well. Those days are over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 7 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said: I mean I don't really have a strong position here either way but his rookie year is clearly an outlier. His career wRC+ of 136 has come in a career in which he's produced exactly one season above a wRC+ of 136 -- his rookie year. I don't really see any reason we should weight that year equally with his more recent ones or this one. Well other than last year when he put up a 138. But I already called out his rookie season as being an outlier, just like his 2016 season. I also mentioned in this thread he’s probably somewhere between a 130 & 140 hitter. I just don’t agree with Balta that his poor June is reflective of a downward trend whereas I believe that his 2017 output (and not 2016) is a more accurate dipiction of his current ability. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: Well other than last year when he put up a 138. But I already called out his rookie season as being an outlier, just like his 2016 season. I also mentioned in this thread he’s probably somewhere between a 130 & 140 hitter. I just don’t agree with Balta that his poor June is reflective of a downward trend whereas I believe that his 2017 output (and not 2016) is a more accurate dipiction of his current ability. oops, I meant to post 138, glanced over his fangraphs page a bit too quickly there. Anyways, his slump is coming at a really awful time. Recency bias will be a thing for any club scouting him. It's a pretty shit environment to try and trade him anyways with the AL looking so top heavy and the NL clubs only able to use him at 1B. Unless some club just bowls Hahn over with an offer (and I'm not sure what that would even look like other than it would include a top 100 league wide prospect) there's not much point in trading him IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said: oops, I meant to post 138, glanced over his fangraphs page a bit too quickly there. Anyways, his slump is coming at a really awful time. Recency bias will be a thing for any club scouting him. It's a pretty shit environment to try and trade him anyways with the AL looking so top heavy and the NL clubs only able to use him at 1B. Unless some club just bowls Hahn over with an offer (and I'm not sure what that would even look like other than it would include a top 100 league wide prospect) there's not much point in trading him IMO. And that's basically where I'm at too. At this point, a competitive team could probably find something as useful as Abreu to them as a salary dump, if the White Sox traded Abreu it would basically also be a salary dump as he's fairly paid for what he's doing right now but offers little extra value, and the White Sox shouldn't need to do a salary dump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: When his 2016 and 1/3 of his 2018 seasons aren't reflective of anything, you're starting to reject a substantial portion of his career. When you ignore that players are human beings that will have struggles then you must be a robot. I get you’re a numbers guy, but you have to consider all qualitative information as well or you will come to bad conclusions. I mean, would you even be having this same argument a month ago when his key numbers were all perfectly in-line with his 2017 stats? Never overreact to a player coming too big of a high or low and that’s exactly what you are doing right now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: When you ignore that players are human beings that will have struggles then you must be a robot. I get you’re a numbers guy, but you have to consider all qualitative information as well or you will come to bad conclusions. I mean, would you even be having this same argument a month ago when his key numbers were all perfectly in-line with his 2017 stats? Never overreact to a player coming too big of a high or low and that’s exactly what you are doing right now. Personally, I think you're now overreacting to his big 2017, and saying he's a sub-.800 OPS hitter long term would be overreacting to his current slump. He's still a good hitter, but he's not a great hitter, and he's fairly paid to be a good hitter, so teams aren't going to line up to trade a lot for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said: When you ignore that players are human beings that will have struggles then you must be a robot. I get you’re a numbers guy, but you have to consider all qualitative information as well or you will come to bad conclusions. I mean, would you even be having this same argument a month ago when his key numbers were all perfectly in-line with his 2017 stats? Never overreact to a player coming too big of a high or low and that’s exactly what you are doing right now. A month from now he'll be at .290/.350/.510. These fluctuations are completely normal for him and, in my opinion, are not indicative of any slowing down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said: oops, I meant to post 138, glanced over his fangraphs page a bit too quickly there. Anyways, his slump is coming at a really awful time. Recency bias will be a thing for any club scouting him. It's a pretty shit environment to try and trade him anyways with the AL looking so top heavy and the NL clubs only able to use him at 1B. Unless some club just bowls Hahn over with an offer (and I'm not sure what that would even look like other than it would include a top 100 league wide prospect) there's not much point in trading him IMO. I agree with all of this. Not good timing and a recency bias could affect his value with such a top heavy league. He really needs to get out of this slump. I still think he has far more value than most people here think if teams believe they’re getting a 135 wRC+ type hitter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveno89 Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said: I agree with all of this. Not good timing and a recency bias could affect his value with such a top heavy league. He really needs to get out of this slump. I still think he has far more value than most people here think if teams believe they’re getting a 135 wRC+ type hitter. Bowden at the Athletic proposes Jose Abreu to the Cardinals in exchange for Jose Martinez and Ryan Helsley. An interesting trade offer. Thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 3 hours ago, Balta1701 said: And that's basically where I'm at too. At this point, a competitive team could probably find something as useful as Abreu to them as a salary dump, if the White Sox traded Abreu it would basically also be a salary dump as he's fairly paid for what he's doing right now but offers little extra value, and the White Sox shouldn't need to do a salary dump. Would you say the Abreu through the first four years offered "extra value?" How could his stats have been any better? For a 4-year run it had to be in the top 5 in White Sox history. Tough crowd on Soxtalk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 4 hours ago, soxfan2014 said: My gawd. Go back to any page and I'm sure someone has given you a reasonable explanation on that page. I'm tired of repeating myself. At this point, it's your own fault for not understanding our reasoning that you keep ignoring (seriously get checked out because your short term memory is horrible apparently). Read the posts. You guys can say all you want how nobody "hates" Abreu but if you read every Abreu post there's definitely an air of negativity regarding him. I understand completely your guys' points about his projection in the future and age. I just don't agree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, greg775 said: Would you say the Abreu through the first four years offered "extra value?" How could his stats have been any better? For a 4-year run it had to be in the top 5 in White Sox history. Tough crowd on Soxtalk. Actually his first 5 seasons put him 6th in career OPS as a White Sox player. His stats could have been a lot better, he could have been the guy he was in 2014. Frankly, the fact that he wasn't that guy ever again contributed to the 2015 and 2016 failures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sticky Stuff Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 41 minutes ago, steveno89 said: Bowden at the Athletic proposes Jose Abreu to the Cardinals in exchange for Jose Martinez and Ryan Helsley. An interesting trade offer. Thoughts? Make it Dakota Hudson and I’m all in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 1 hour ago, Balta1701 said: Actually his first 5 seasons put him 6th in career OPS as a White Sox player. His stats could have been a lot better, he could have been the guy he was in 2014. Frankly, the fact that he wasn't that guy ever again contributed to the 2015 and 2016 failures. His traditional stats probably are one of the best 4-year runs in Sox history, maybe THE best. BA, HR, RBI over a 4-year span. Granted his glove is pretty weak but what the heck. Our team blows defensively. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ron883 Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 1 minute ago, greg775 said: His traditional stats probably are one of the best 4-year runs in Sox history, maybe THE best. BA, HR, RBI over a 4-year span. Granted his glove is pretty weak but what the heck. Our team blows defensively. Proof? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, greg775 said: His traditional stats probably are one of the best 4-year runs in Sox history, maybe THE best. BA, HR, RBI over a 4-year span. Granted his glove is pretty weak but what the heck. Our team blows defensively. Dude, you never watched Frank Thomas did you? Seriously. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Dude, you never watched Frank Thomas did you? Seriously. I said one of the best 4 year runs. Frank obviously would be in there. Who else? Maybe Robin. Baines. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.