southsider2k5 Posted July 5, 2018 Author Share Posted July 5, 2018 Just now, GreenSox said: And the White Sox are in their 6th straight below .500 season. What's your point? I count the Cubs from when Theo was hired; the Astros from when Luhnow was hired; the Phillies from the season that they traded Cole Hamels (which is prior to when their current GM was hired). The Braves won in 2013, had an unexpected down year in 2014, and late in 2014 decided to rebuild: it took 3 years. So if my premise is wrong then the White Sox are in year 6 of the rebuild. You seem to be ignoring a key portion of what happened in each franchise to make a point, or at the very least WAY over simplifying it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 5, 2018 Author Share Posted July 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said: With a Kershaw opt-out looking less likely (and for good reason), this is a good point. And it actually fits in with what I said. Hypothetically, if Harper and Machado both sign insane 12-year, $400m+ contracts with other teams, and the Sox then don't make any significant signings, would you call them cheap? To me, unless you think they were cheap not to be the best offer for Harper/Machado, I think the answer is "no." Those are the only guys that were worth going outside the lines for, because the current team is not at the stage where you even know which holes you need free agency to fill. More than anything it would depend on who is available, and their costs. I don't think the Sox should pass up pieces that could be fits if they are going to be bargains. At worst they can always be moved for surplus value in the future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 47 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: If the White Sox are not involved in this year's FA market, heavily, then the people who have said that the ownership group are way too cheap...will finally be right. Last year we could make the excuse, correctly, that they still had bad contracts on the books (Cabreroid, Frazier, Robertson, Shields). This year, some of the money they saved went to Robert's huge bonus, and they've still got a payroll of $86 million. They've only got $50 million committed next year counting Abreu and Garcia, and there's no $50 million international signee excuse. Could just mean going some short term deals for talent rather than getting the one big fish. Could then go after Arenado the next year. Lots of answers to shifting the outlook another year. Like I've said though, the downside to people cheering being as bad as possible this year is it makes the team that much less attractive. Need to have a strong second half if there's any hope. But, it was a risk to the keeping spots open for players to prove it. Few, if any, did. And so it's unlikely harper is gonna be like, yeah!, they are a Harper away! And if you want them to spend that many no matter the talent...I disagree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerksticks Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, bmags said: Could just mean going some short term deals for talent rather than getting the one big fish. Could then go after Arenado the next year. Lots of answers to shifting the outlook another year. Like I've said though, the downside to people cheering being as bad as possible this year is it makes the team that much less attractive. Need to have a strong second half if there's any hope. But, it was a risk to the keeping spots open for players to prove it. Few, if any, did. And so it's unlikely harper is gonna be like, yeah!, they are a Harper away! And if you want them to spend that many no matter the talent...I disagree. I agree with this. I don’t even know that Harper and Machado are good fits here. Arenado on the other hand is just perfect. Give him $70M a year ffs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, Jerksticks said: I agree with this. I don’t even know that Harper and Machado are good fits here. Arenado on the other hand is just perfect. Give him $70M a year ffs What's the difference between Arenado and Machado (3B) fitting in? They would fill the same role Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 I'd also say that I'm in favor of the sox paying big for pitching and I like Keuchel as a fit with our org, also like morton on a 2 year deal. I'm fine with our pitchers learning in AAA a la the Rays and forcing their hand to be up. Especially considering most of our pitchers problems are with control. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
35thstreetswarm Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 1 hour ago, bmags said: I think that "may not be 2020 or even 2021" was editorializing but main point may be this fa period sox may not be that active. Could be like Braves of last year, who did some signings to soften the blow but didn't compromise the rebuild. This was my main problem with the article - it suggests that KW bought into the premise that the timeline had changed, but it's not at all clear. I suspect the premise the author's, and I'd be surprised if Kenny really conceded that the timeline of the rebuild has changed. In any event, I don't think anything has happened this year to dramatically alter the 2020 arrival date, but rather just standard dog-days of the rebuild stuff. This is the malaise period. The last week's rash of (hopefully short-term) injuries provide a good opening for an anti-rebuild type to post an article reflecting the malaise. Nothing to see here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buehrlesque Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 17 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said: With a Kershaw opt-out looking less likely (and for good reason), this is a good point. And it actually fits in with what I said. Hypothetically, if Harper and Machado both sign insane 12-year, $400m+ contracts with other teams, and the Sox then don't make any significant signings, would you call them cheap? To me, unless you think they were cheap not to be the best offer for Harper/Machado, I think the answer is "no." Those are the only guys that were worth going outside the lines for, because the current team is not at the stage where you even know which holes you need free agency to fill. This is starting to become conventional wisdom, but I don't think it's that iron-clad. There's this perception out there that when you are rebuilding, you shouldn't sign any FA. If there's a good player available and you like him and his price is fair, get him. It's part of building your team. There are factors to consider (losing a draft pick to sign a player with a QO, signing someone over 35, overlapping someone on the major league roster), but there's also a risk of being too cute and passing on a fair deal for a good player to be left with worse options the following year. Harper and Machado are pipedreams, and that's fine. But guys like Pollock, Corbin, Richards, Donaldson and Keuchel could all make varying degrees of sense for the Sox in the right situation. Unless the Sox are so zeroed in on a guy like Arenado, Rendon or Goldschmidt in the following year's class, I hop the Sox walk away with something this winter. (That said, if the price tag on any of those guys exceeds what value you think they'd bring, then it's an easy pass.) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said: This was my main problem with the article - it suggests that KW bought into the premise that the timeline had changed, but it's not at all clear. I suspect the premise the author's, and I'd be surprised if Kenny really conceded that the timeline of the rebuild has changed. In any event, I don't think anything has happened this year to dramatically alter the 2020 arrival date, but rather just standard dog-days of the rebuild stuff. This is the malaise period. The last week's rash of (hopefully short-term) injuries provide a good opening for an anti-rebuild type to post an article reflecting the malaise. Nothing to see here. yeah. Broken record from me at this point, but this time last year the phillies were going through same crisis. Everything seemed to be regressing. Then Rhys show came in august and they had a nice ending, signed Arrietta, their pitchers got healthier and it's all good. (They also replaced their manager). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 5, 2018 Author Share Posted July 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said: This was my main problem with the article - it suggests that KW bought into the premise that the timeline had changed, but it's not at all clear. I suspect the premise the author's, and I'd be surprised if Kenny really conceded that the timeline of the rebuild has changed. In any event, I don't think anything has happened this year to dramatically alter the 2020 arrival date, but rather just standard dog-days of the rebuild stuff. This is the malaise period. The last week's rash of (hopefully short-term) injuries provide a good opening for an anti-rebuild type to post an article reflecting the malaise. Nothing to see here. I think the thrust of the article is that the public timeline wasn't created by the Sox. It was created by people on the outside attempting to project their own timeline. I can't recall ever having see the White Sox themselves issue a timeline for things publicly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 Just now, bmags said: yeah. Broken record from me at this point, but this time last year the phillies were going through same crisis. Everything seemed to be regressing. Then Rhys show came in august and they had a nice ending, signed Arrietta, their pitchers got healthier and it's all good. (They also replaced their manager). Very good point. I also think our "crisis" is overstated. It has been a very good developmental year for many of our prospects. The only negatives have been Giolito and some injuries. There are some who you could argue for as negatives (Kopech, Moncada, Hansen) but they're all easy to refute (a product of 2-3 bad starts, on a 2+ WAR pace and improving lately, small sample size/injured) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: I think the thrust of the article is that the public timeline wasn't created by the Sox. It was created by people on the outside attempting to project their own timeline. I can't recall ever having see the White Sox themselves issue a timeline for things publicly. I would say that Hahn has definitely fanned flames on a big 2018-19 offseason. He's never absolute, but he's absolutely played into the fan excitement about Machado, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
footlongcomiskeydog Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said: This was my main problem with the article - it suggests that KW bought into the premise that the timeline had changed, but it's not at all clear. I suspect the premise the author's, and I'd be surprised if Kenny really conceded that the timeline of the rebuild has changed. In any event, I don't think anything has happened this year to dramatically alter the 2020 arrival date, but rather just standard dog-days of the rebuild stuff. This is the malaise period. The last week's rash of (hopefully short-term) injuries provide a good opening for an anti-rebuild type to post an article reflecting the malaise. Nothing to see here. 3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: I think the thrust of the article is that the public timeline wasn't created by the Sox. It was created by people on the outside attempting to project their own timeline. I can't recall ever having see the White Sox themselves issue a timeline for things publicly. They haven't set a public timeline and will never do so as it serves them no purpose. The rebuild could take another two years or it could take another 7. Just gotta have patience. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: I think the thrust of the article is that the public timeline wasn't created by the Sox. It was created by people on the outside attempting to project their own timeline. I can't recall ever having see the White Sox themselves issue a timeline for things publicly. He's gotten close to saying that 2019 is early but plausible. Quote Such plans typically take five years, he said. With so many veterans that can be used to net prospects, the Sox might have a quicker path to contention and Hahn told a fan he would love to say 2019 was the year. But he believes there are too many factors for a target date yet. He said the Sox will have funds available to target free agents when they're ready, acknowledging the fans who mentioned the wealth of free-agent talent that is set to hit the market during the winter of 2018-19. "We know spending is the final piece of this," Hahn said. "I expect the resources to be there." CBS Quote Such hopes stand down the road. Hahn teased 2019 as the potential beginning for their window of competing, though he acknowledged well how circumstances can change. As for this 2017 season? Hahn is being transparent. ST Quote “Even under the most optimistic projections of our ability to contend, certainly ’18 and ’19 don’t include the bulk of the time when we anticipate having a window open to us,” Hahn said. “So obviously with any player who isn’t controllable through the bulk of that window, we have to make an assessment.’’ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenSox Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 (edited) 17 minutes ago, bmags said: yeah. Broken record from me at this point, but this time last year the phillies were going through same crisis. Everything seemed to be regressing. Then Rhys show came in august and they had a nice ending, signed Arrietta, their pitchers got healthier and it's all good. (They also replaced their manager). Another big difference for the Phillies this year is that 2 of their young starters who weren't very good last year, are very good this year, one of whom is the guy they got from the Nats for Papelbon. Starting pitching progress is the biggest void so far. Stockpile it. Edited July 5, 2018 by GreenSox Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, GreenSox said: Another big difference for the Phillies this year is that 2 of their young starters who weren't very good last year, are very good this year, one of whom is the guy they got from the Nats for Papelbon. Starting pitching progress is the biggest void so far. Stockpile it. Yep. Stockpile it, but also progressing lots of young pitching at once sucks to watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarava Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said: The Astros were below .500 for every season between 2009 and 2014, including 3 straight seasons for losing more than 100 games. The Cubs were below .500 for every season between 2010 and 2014, including 3 straight seasons of 90 or more losses. The Braves spent 4 seasons under .500, including 3 straight years of 90 or more losses. The Phillies were below .500 for every season between 2013 and 2017, with at least 89 losses in all of them, but 90 or more losses for three straight years. Your premise is wrong. Why would you mention 2010 for the Cubs? Theo wasn't hired until after the 2011 season. They weren't rebuilding in 2010-11, they were just inept. And if we are counting back and including inept years and not just rebuild years, then the Sox go back a lot farther than 2 seasons. Edited July 5, 2018 by Sarava Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
footlongcomiskeydog Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: He's gotten close to saying that 2019 is early but plausible. CBS ST This team has to spend on some impact free agents if it plans to compete in 2019 or 2020. Developing an internal core like the Astros did is a pipe dream. The talent here is nowhere near the level of Altuve, Correa, Bregman, and Springer. Who is your starting catcher, first baseman, third baseman, center fielder, left fielder, #1 starter, and closer in 2020 if you don't sign anyone? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Sarava said: Why would you mention 2010 for the Cubs? Theo wasn't hired until after the 2011 season. They weren't rebuilding in 2010-11, they were just inept. And if we are counting back and including inept years and not just rebuild years, then the Sox go back a lot farther than 2 seasons. Whether you are rebuilding or not, losing a lot of games should count, considering draft position. The one benefit you get to a full out rebuild is playing guys you never would have played, and maybe finding something. The Sox system was so bad, missing out on that really didn't do any damage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenSox Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, bmags said: Yep. Stockpile it, but also progressing lots of young pitching at once sucks to watch. For the Sox, good starting pitching has usually revealed itself early on. Some take a season or 1/2 a season in the majors to get straight. But that's been about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dam8610 Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Eminor3rd said: With a Kershaw opt-out looking less likely (and for good reason), this is a good point. And it actually fits in with what I said. Hypothetically, if Harper and Machado both sign insane 12-year, $400m+ contracts with other teams, and the Sox then don't make any significant signings, would you call them cheap? To me, unless you think they were cheap not to be the best offer for Harper/Machado, I think the answer is "no." Those are the only guys that were worth going outside the lines for, because the current team is not at the stage where you even know which holes you need free agency to fill. Wait until 2020, sign Arenado and Sale. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted July 5, 2018 Author Share Posted July 5, 2018 28 minutes ago, Sarava said: Why would you mention 2010 for the Cubs? Theo wasn't hired until after the 2011 season. They weren't rebuilding in 2010-11, they were just inept. And if we are counting back and including inept years and not just rebuild years, then the Sox go back a lot farther than 2 seasons. The players in the Cubs system didn't just start with Theo. Perfect example is that Altuve was drafted long before the rebuild started. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarava Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 24 minutes ago, Dick Allen said: Whether you are rebuilding or not, losing a lot of games should count, considering draft position. The one benefit you get to a full out rebuild is playing guys you never would have played, and maybe finding something. The Sox system was so bad, missing out on that really didn't do any damage. I agree with everything you're saying. I'm just saying that however one wants to label these rebuilds, the goalposts need to be in the same place for both sides of the arguments. Which they weren't in the post I quoted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flavum Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 16 minutes ago, Dam8610 said: Wait until 2020, sign Arenado and Sale. My pipe dream has been Arenado and Bumgarner. Won’t be holding my breath. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarava Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said: The players in the Cubs system didn't just start with Theo. Perfect example is that Altuve was drafted long before the rebuild started. Sure. And Tim Anderson was in the Sox system before the rebuild started as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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