Hypothetical: Would you trade Moncada for Arenado?

[Buehrlesque]

Here's a purely hypothetical (at this point anyway) situation: Rockies star 3B Nolan Arenado declares that he is unhappy in Colorado and wants to be traded. The Rockies choose to honor his request and, once a trade is agreed upon, grant his new team a 48-hour window to negotiate an extension. They are sure to be inundated with offers, so the winning bid would have to be pretty impressive. For the White Sox, the option of waiting him out until free agency after 2019 is now off the table, because whichever team acquires him will immediately lock him up long term. Your choice is either trade for him now, or never acquire him.

As White Sox GM, would you offer Yoan Moncada for Arenado?

It's a high price to pay (there might be minor complementary pieces included as well, but none as significant as Moncada), but if you pull the trigger, it would give you an eventual infield of Arenado-Anderson-Madrigal, which would be darn good offensively and pretty much elite defensively. If you don't make this trade, you either move one of Moncada/Anderson/Madrigal off of MI, go all in on Manny Machado, settle for lesser piece like Donaldson/Moustakas, etc., or wait it out and hope someone like Burger/Forbes/Curbelo/Sosa pans out.

Let's assume the Rockies are amenable to this deal, and that the Sox could in fact work out an extension with Arenado (it's not a sure thing, but it's a different question than the point of this thread).

Would you make the trade?

[LittleHurt05]

18 minutes ago, Buehrlesque said:

Here's a purely hypothetical (at this point anyway) situation: Rockies star 3B Nolan Arenado declares that he is unhappy in Colorado and wants to be traded. The Rockies choose to honor his request and, once a trade is agreed upon, grant his new team a 48-hour window to negotiate an extension. They are sure to be inundated with offers, so the winning bid would have to be pretty impressive. For the White Sox, the option of waiting him out until free agency after 2019 is now off the table, because whichever team acquires him will immediately lock him up long term. Your choice is either trade for him now, or never acquire him.

As White Sox GM, would you offer Yoan Moncada for Arenado?

It's a high price to pay (there might be minor complementary pieces included as well, but none as significant as Moncada), but if you pull the trigger, it would give you an eventual infield of Arenado-Anderson-Madrigal, which would be darn good offensively and pretty much elite defensively. If you don't make this trade, you either move one of Moncada/Anderson/Madrigal off of MI, go all in on Manny Machado, settle for lesser piece like Donaldson/Moustakas, etc., or wait it out and hope someone like Burger/Forbes/Curbelo/Sosa pans out.

Let's assume the Rockies are amenable to this deal, and that the Sox could in fact work out an extension with Arenado (it's not a sure thing, but it's a different question than the point of this thread).

Would you make the trade?

Option A: Moncada in his age 23-28 seasons for $40-50 million

Option B: Arenado in his age 28-35 seasons for $300 million

I think option A sounds more appealing to me, so I would say no.

[ScootsMcGoots]

32 minutes ago, LittleHurt05 said:

Option A: Moncada in his age 23-28 seasons for $40-50 million

Option B: Arenado in his age 28-35 seasons for $300 million

I think option A sounds more appealing to me, so I would say no.

What if option B gives you a better opportunity to succeed in the playoffs, in the same window of contention?

[WBWSF]

I would make the trade in a heartbeat. I would throw Giolito, Fulmer AND Rick Hahn in the deal. I would take the Rockies GM in return for Hahn. This would be a first in MLB history, two GMs traded for each other. In 1960 Cleveland and Detroit traded managers for the first and only time in MLB history.

[GreenSox]

No

[LittleHurt05]

28 minutes ago, Scoots said:

What if option B gives you a better opportunity to succeed in the playoffs, in the same window of contention?

Does it give you a better opportunity to succeed though?  The whole point of rebuilding is to gather the young cost-controlled players so you can spend money to fix the remaining problems.  Here you are spending big money and losing a talented cost-controlled player, when you can go with option C of keeping Moncada and signing a big-name free agent.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, LittleHurt05 said:

Does it give you a better opportunity to succeed though?  The whole point of rebuilding is to gather the young cost-controlled players so you can spend money to fix the remaining problems.  Here you are spending big money and losing a talented cost-controlled player, when you can go with option C of keeping Moncada and signing a big-name free agent.

Compare it straight up. Moncada + Machado or Arenado and a 2nd round pick (lost for signing Machado) + about $50 million. Which is better for the White Sox? I'll take the former.

[knightni]

He's making 20 mil + in arbitration in 2019 and is a free agent in 2020.

Is it a given that the Sox will be in World series contention by then, and is he worth that much money to a franchise that draws less than some AAA teams?

 

 

[Richie]

If I was a hitter like Arenado - I could put up with a lot in order to keep Coors Field as my home ball park to hit in. lol

Arenado is one of those guys whose a beast in any ball park, but still... It's very nice for those numbers. A lot of batting titles won by Colorado players who haven't exactly been overwhelming. It ain't a coincidence. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

No way. I despise any trade where you give up a cost controlled potential superstar just for a highly unlikely chance of extending a guy. It's the one thing I repeatedly see on here that makes little sense. It didn't work for Samardzija. It was repeatedly talked about for Machado and you'd think we all know how unlikely that is but continue to see it time and time again as if the Sox are some kind of great negotiators who can somehow convince an impending free agent not to see what the open market has to offer. Give me a break.

[Buehrlesque]

12 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

No way. I despise any trade where you give up a cost controlled potential superstar just for a highly unlikely chance of extending a guy. It's the one thing I repeatedly see on here that makes little sense. It didn't work for Samardzija. It was repeatedly talked about for Machado and you'd think we all know how unlikely that is but continue to see it time and time again as if the Sox are some kind of great negotiators who can somehow convince an impending free agent not to see what the open market has to offer. Give me a break.

The premise of this thread is that you are in fact able to extend Arenado at the time of the trade. I agree that trading Moncada for a semi-rental with no guarantee of an extension doesn't make any sense.

[Sleepy Harold]

1 hour ago, WBWSF said:

I would make the trade in a heartbeat. I would throw Giolito, Fulmer AND Rick Hahn in the deal. I would take the Rockies GM in return for Hahn. This would be a first in MLB history, two GMs traded for each other. In 1960 Cleveland and Detroit traded managers for the first and only time in MLB history.

I mean the Rockies GM did give Ian Desmond 5/70 and give 3 pen arms a combined 106M this offseason, so he totally knows what he's doing. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 minutes ago, Buehrlesque said:

The premise of this thread is that you are in fact able to extend Arenado at the time of the trade. I agree that trading Moncada for a semi-rental with no guarantee of an extension doesn't make any sense.

Sorry just woke up and read it twice to try to get my cloudy mind to understand what you were saying. So it your scenario its no matter who trades for him they will be able to extend him so the Sox have to offer the best package for him. I just have issues with trade and extend propositions for impending superstar free agents. It just doesn't happen so, to me, it's just not a realistic scenario.

[Buehrlesque]

22 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Sorry just woke up and read it twice to try to get my cloudy mind to understand what you were saying. So it your scenario its no matter who trades for him they will be able to extend him so the Sox have to offer the best package for him. I just have issues with trade and extend propositions for impending superstar free agents. It just doesn't happen so, to me, it's just not a realistic scenario.

Correct. And yeah, it's much more likely Arenado goes all the way to FA, but I thought this would be an interesting hypothetical scenario.

[Chicago White Sox]

IMO, Moncada is close to untouchable.  Too much potential and too many question marks (cause of his recent struggles) for a team to give you fair value for him anyways.  The other factor here is I’m not sure giving up assets for Arenado makes sense at this point.  I think we’re better off taking a swing at Machado this offseason and assuming we miss, hope we can lure Arenado the following.  If not, Rendon is also available after the 2019 season.  Point is if we can use our excess cash to fill a need, that should be explored first & foremost.

[southsider2k5]

Moncada at Coors Field?  Insane.

[SoxAce]

2 hours ago, GreenSox said:

No

/thread.

[fathom]

7 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Moncada at Coors Field?  Insane.

Absolutely, but there are a ton of LHP in the NL West

[bjm676]

without a second thought, I would do it.  That is, of course, an extension is worked out.    Arenado 3B,  Anderson SS Madrigal 2B.  Looks pretty good to me.

Edited July 10, 2018 by bjm676

[Buehrlesque]

While it's not a no-brainer, I think I would make the trade. To me, it's about asset allocation instead of pure asset accumulation. With good options already in place at SS and 2B, I'll cash in Moncada's value and take the elite 3B, which I don't think the Sox will be able to find through other avenues. Of course, the whole thing could backfire if Madrigal flops or Arenado craters in the AL, so it's still risky. But I think it would be worth the risk.

[ChiSox59]

How about we sign the guy instead of giving away a potential franchise player?!?!?!?!

 

 

[Buehrlesque]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

How about we sign the guy instead of giving away a potential franchise player?!?!?!?!

 

 

That'd be great, but the scenario in this thread is that he is going to be traded somewhere and sign an extension in-season before ever hitting the market. So the FA road is off the table.

[ChiSox59]

Just now, Buehrlesque said:

That'd be great, but the scenario in this thread is that he is going to be traded somewhere and sign an extension in-season before ever hitting the market. So the FA road is off the table.

The Rockies are never going to give a team an extension window, so the whole thing is worthless to discuss. And even if they did, it would still be beyond idiotic to trade Moncada.  

[SoxBlanco]

Just now, ChiSox59 said:

The Rockies are never going to give a team an extension window, so the whole thing is worthless to discuss. And even if they did, it would still be beyond idiotic to trade Moncada.  

He’s just trying to have a little fun with a hypothetical. Don’t get so hung up on the details of why it would never happen. The question is simple: Do you want cheap Moncada or expensive Arenado on your team for the next five or six years?

[southsider2k5]

2 hours ago, Buehrlesque said:

While it's not a no-brainer, I think I would make the trade. To me, it's about asset allocation instead of pure asset accumulation. With good options already in place at SS and 2B, I'll cash in Moncada's value and take the elite 3B, which I don't think the Sox will be able to find through other avenues. Of course, the whole thing could backfire if Madrigal flops or Arenado craters in the AL, so it's still risky. But I think it would be worth the risk.

We'd still have Yolmer  and Leury for today, and Madrigal on the horizon.  This is an interesting theory.