Make A Deal: Joakim Soria

[steveno89]

3 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

You are probably right but if I am a contending team looking for a reliever I would actually prefer Soria over Britton for the next 3 months. Far less injury risk, slightly lower salary, and he's actually outperformed Britton the last two years. Britton has had some controls issues the last two seasons walking ~5 batters per 9 innings pitched. He's not the same guy he was in his dominant 2016 season.

To our benefit, Soria has certainly pitched well enough to be dealt by the trade deadline. We almost certainly are not getting anybody in an organization's top 10 prospects, but we still should be able to land a decent prospect. I would think that asking for one or two of a team's #15-30 range prospects would not be crazy 

 

[wrathofhahn]

Soria also has an option now he's sort of reestablished himself as a top closer I could see a team picking up that option.

As far as Soria worth goes I'm expecting someone at the bottom of the top 100 or two interesting young guys.

Heredia and Uceta from the dodgers would be a great get. Or even someone like Alvarez or Ruiz. I'd also be willing to package him with Avilian to try and get more back teams that need bullpen help need more then one guy.

 

 

[wrathofhahn]

On 7/20/2018 at 9:21 PM, Chicago White Sox said:

I’ve said on this very forum that I’d expect a 15% BB rate from him in the majors.  I’m definitely not expecting him to retain his current 21% BB rate.  That being said, I do think K rate will maintain or get better with improved umpiring.  I also think that his power numbers will improve by playing in a bandbox with a juiced ball.  And catching prospects typically see their offensive development lag behind a bit while they focus on the defensive side of things.  I actually think that you expecting his most positive trait to regress and everything else to remain the same or get worse is somewhat unreasonable for a player like him.

I'm not going to crunch the numbers but I sort of put him at .330-.340ish OBP just looking at his hitting numbers. Assuming his slugging stays the same you are looking at best probably a mid .700 ish hitter at the ML.

That just won't be good enough with his defensive defencies at the position.

 

On 7/21/2018 at 4:10 PM, Jose Abreu said:

Agreed. We should package him to get a slightly better return.

Sure but remember Famila plays in a extreme pitchers park in the NL. Soria pitches in an extreme hitters park in the AL.

I honestly think his ERA would be a run lower if he was pitching for the dodgers.

[Dam8610]

13 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

I'm not going to crunch the numbers but I sort of put him at .330-.340ish OBP just looking at his hitting numbers. Assuming his slugging stays the same you are looking at best probably a mid .700 ish hitter at the ML.

That just won't be good enough with his defensive defencies at the position.

 

Sure but remember Famila plays in a extreme pitchers park in the NL. Soria pitches in an extreme hitters park in the AL.

I honestly think his ERA would be a run lower if he was pitching for the dodgers.

If Collins can hit in the neighborhood of .250, he should be an .800 OPS player, maybe better with the juiced ball. A realistic slash line for him could be .240/.360/.460, that's an .820 OPS, probably a wRC+ in the 120s as well.

[Chicago White Sox]

12 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

If Collins can hit in the neighborhood of .250, he should be an .800 OPS player, maybe better with the juiced ball. A realistic slash line for him could be .240/.360/.460, that's an .820 OPS, probably a wRC+ in the 120s as well.

I agree.  Unless shit goes south, I think he should have a slash line around where you have it.  And honestly, if he gives up catching and focuses entirely on hitting I could those numbers potentially improve.

[wrathofhahn]

Just now, Dam8610 said:

If Collins can hit in the neighborhood of .250, he should be an .800 OPS player, maybe better with the juiced ball. A realistic slash line for him could be .240/.360/.460, that's an .820 OPS, probably a wRC+ in the 120s as well.

Those numbers aren't realistic to me. It will be extremely difficult for him to maintain that kind of slash line at .240 avg. Todd Frazier didn't manage to do it over the course of his career. The only guy I sort of remember doing it consistently is Dunn.

I don't think Collins has that type of power either juiced ball or not.

If he put up .235/.330/.435 that probably puts him at around 25 HR's.

 

 

 

[Dam8610]

10 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

Those numbers aren't realistic to me. It will be extremely difficult for him to maintain that kind of slash line at .240 avg. Todd Frazier didn't manage to do it over the course of his career. The only guy I sort of remember doing it consistently is Dunn.

I don't think Collins has that type of power either juiced ball or not.

If he put up .235/.330/.435 that probably puts him at around 25 HR's.

 

 

 

For reference, your slashline assumes a walk rate in the 10-12% range. I don't think it's realistic to expect his walk rate to fall ~10-12% from AA to MLB. Even if we take your numbers, with the exception of bumping the OBP by 20 points to .350 to reflect a more realistic walk rate projection, those are still respectable numbers.

[Jose Abreu]

16 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

For reference, your slashline assumes a walk rate in the 10-12% range. I don't think it's realistic to expect his walk rate to fall ~10-12% from AA to MLB. Even if we take your numbers, with the exception of bumping the OBP by 20 points to .350 to reflect a more realistic walk rate projection, those are still respectable numbers.

And from a catcher, they're more than just respectable. They're a major asset

[fathom]

2 hours ago, wrathofhahn said:

Soria also has an option now he's sort of reestablished himself as a top closer I could see a team picking up that option.

As far as Soria worth goes I'm expecting someone at the bottom of the top 100 or two interesting young guys.

Heredia and Uceta from the dodgers would be a great get. Or even someone like Alvarez or Ruiz. I'd also be willing to package him with Avilian to try and get more back teams that need bullpen help need more then one guy.

 

 

I'll be honest, I don't think there's a chance in hell the Sox get a top 150 guy for Soria. Would you want Hahn trading someone like Rutherford or Collins for a set-up man who's not exactly dominant?

[wrathofhahn]

1 hour ago, Dam8610 said:

For reference, your slashline assumes a walk rate in the 10-12% range. I don't think it's realistic to expect his walk rate to fall ~10-12% from AA to MLB. Even if we take your numbers, with the exception of bumping the OBP by 20 points to .350 to reflect a more realistic walk rate projection, those are still respectable numbers.

How is it a more realistic projection? Take a look at the numbers of other players around the league.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=9,d

.330 is still top 30 and makes him somewhere in the 80th percentile among all qualified players.

.350 puts him top five in the major leagues in BB% and you are talking about career numbers not just one good season. It's just not realistic. In order to get that number there it's more then being willing to take balls at the ML he'll have to demonstrate the kind of power that makes pitchers pitch around him. Like Dunn did. I just don't see it right now. Of course that could all change in the future but if anything what we need him to work on is shorting his swing and removing the hitch so he gets his average into a respectable range.

If he's batting 265-275 you don't need him to have a bunch of exotic lines inorder for his bat to play well.

[Dam8610]

25 minutes ago, fathom said:

I'll be honest, I don't think there's a chance in hell the Sox get a top 150 guy for Soria. Would you want Hahn trading someone like Rutherford or Collins for a set-up man who's not exactly dominant?

1) If it were up to the fans, the White Sox would still have Fernando Tatis Jr.

2) This is why I think packaging Soria and Fry is the best trade option the team has.

[GreenSox]

34 minutes ago, fathom said:

I'll be honest, I don't think there's a chance in hell the Sox get a top 150 guy for Soria. Would you want Hahn trading someone like Rutherford or Collins for a set-up man who's not exactly dominant?

I could see 5+ players on Houston's AAA roster, none of whom are top 150 (to my knowledge) that I'd trade Soria for and who could  probably play in Chicago immediately.   

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

40 minutes ago, fathom said:

I'll be honest, I don't think there's a chance in hell the Sox get a top 150 guy for Soria. Would you want Hahn trading someone like Rutherford or Collins for a set-up man who's not exactly dominant?

Honestly, it depends on the trade partner. If I am a fan of a team like the Braves and with the depth of their system I’d say yes. Or if I’m a fan of a team like the Mariners that hasn’t made the playoffs in what 20 years I’d also say yes.

...and actually, Soria has been dominant this year particularly since April 

[Dam8610]

3 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

How is it a more realistic projection? Take a look at the numbers of other players around the league.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=9,d

.330 is still top 30 and makes him somewhere in the 80th percentile among all qualified players.

.350 puts him top five in the major leagues in BB% and you are talking about career numbers not just one good season. It's just not realistic. In order to get that number there it's more then being willing to take balls at the ML he'll have to demonstrate the kind of power that makes pitchers pitch around him. Like Dunn did. I just don't see it right now. Of course that could all change in the future but if anything what we need him to work on is shorting his swing and removing the hitch so he gets his average into a respectable range.

If he's batting 265-275 you don't need him to have a bunch of exotic lines inorder for his bat to play well.

Collins has not walked in less than 18.5% of his PAs in a season at any point in his pro career. His first partial season in A+, he was at 21.6%, last year between A+ and AA, he was at 18.5%, and this year in AA he's at 21.1%. That's not "just one good season", that's an established trend of ~20% BB rates in MiLB. Obviously MLB pitching is better, so shaving 5-6% off and assuming a 15% BB rate makes sense, but 8-12% is quite a bit of shaving off the numbers.

[Chicago White Sox]

58 minutes ago, fathom said:

I'll be honest, I don't think there's a chance in hell the Sox get a top 150 guy for Soria. Would you want Hahn trading someone like Rutherford or Collins for a set-up man who's not exactly dominant?

I’ve said it before, but I think we get a FV 45 prospect for Soria.  That’s a guy in the 150 to 300 overall range or back-half of an average org’s top 10 prospects.  And IMO, Collins & Rutherford are both clear 50 FV prospects.  I wouldn’t expect a prospect of their caliber for Soria.

[wrathofhahn]

13 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

Collins has not walked in less than 18.5% of his PAs in a season at any point in his pro career. His first partial season in A+, he was at 21.6%, last year between A+ and AA, he was at 18.5%, and this year in AA he's at 21.1%. That's not "just one good season", that's an established trend of ~20% BB rates in MiLB. Obviously MLB pitching is better, so shaving 5-6% off and assuming a 15% BB rate makes sense, but 8-12% is quite a bit of shaving off the numbers.

Look at his strikeout numbers as well. Like I said it will be extremely hard for someone with that profile to replicate those numbers for me 12-13 is still optimistic but we'll just have to disagree to disagree at this point.

All I would ask is to rack your brain and try to find someone with that profile whose been able to successfully translate that success to MLB over the course of an entire career. I can only think of couple Dunn. Reynolds.

Both had much better minor league careers they didn't hit .235 in the minors. Both had much more power to their swing. I thought I was being kind projecting his avg the same. Projecting his slugging to be the same as his minor leagues while still keeping his unsustainable BB% top 30.

I think putting him top 10 which is what 15 percent would do will be difficult especially when he doesn't have the power of a Dunn. Reynolds. Judge. Schwarber. Could he do what you are suggesting for a season or two? Sure. Sustain it over the course of his career? I just don't see it. Like I said we'll just have to agree to disagree.

[Dam8610]

1 hour ago, wrathofhahn said:

Look at his strikeout numbers as well. Like I said it will be extremely hard for someone with that profile to replicate those numbers for me 12-13 is still optimistic but we'll just have to disagree to disagree at this point.

All I would ask is to rack your brain and try to find someone with that profile whose been able to successfully translate that success to MLB over the course of an entire career. I can only think of couple Dunn. Reynolds.

Both had much better minor league careers they didn't hit .235 in the minors. Both had much more power to their swing. I thought I was being kind projecting his avg the same. Projecting his slugging to be the same as his minor leagues while still keeping his unsustainable BB% top 30.

I think putting him top 10 which is what 15 percent would do will be difficult especially when he doesn't have the power of a Dunn. Reynolds. Judge. Schwarber. Could he do what you are suggesting for a season or two? Sure. Sustain it over the course of his career? I just don't see it. Like I said we'll just have to agree to disagree.

The problem is it's hard to find players that walk as much as he does. Sure, Votto does in MLB, but he didn't in the minors, same for Mike Trout. It's hard to tell how his BB% will be affected by making it to MLB, because you just don't see hitters as patient as he in the minors. That said, in looking at all of these patient hitters, what I have noticed is that their walk rates either maintained or increased at the MLB level. Does that mean I think Collins is going to average a walk a game? Of course not, but it does mean that chopping nearly 10% off of his MiLB walk rate seems misguided at best. Also, the research I've done makes me believe even more that a .240/.360/.460 slashline is a reasonable expectation of him, with career years (with some favorable luck) looking something like .270/.410/.550 because the juiced ball and playing his home games at GRF will probably help his power numbers.

ETA: Fangraphs gives Collins the same raw power grade they gave Judge as a prospect.

Edited July 24, 2018 by Dam8610

[steveno89]

16 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Honestly, it depends on the trade partner. If I am a fan of a team like the Braves and with the depth of their system I’d say yes. Or if I’m a fan of a team like the Mariners that hasn’t made the playoffs in what 20 years I’d also say yes.

...and actually, Soria has been dominant this year particularly since April 

The Astros farm is so deep, there are many deals that could be formed for Soria. I have a feeling attention will turn towards him once Britton gets dealt. 

Holding steady until the deadline should help us get a decent piece.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Think the Yankees may part with Brandon Drury ? Would we even want him ? How good is his D at 3rd ? He had some decent years in AZ. and for a youngish guy who already had 2 good years in the NL it must suck being buried in the Yankee system. Yanks are looking for some controllable relief arms.

Edited July 24, 2018 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
spelling error

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

14 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Think the Yankees may part with Brandon Drury ? Would we even want him ? How good is his D at 3rd ? He had some decent years in AZ. and for a youngish guy who already had 2 good years in the NL it must suck being buried in the Yankee system. Yanks are looking for some controllable relief arms.

I don't really see the point with Drury when the Sox already have Sanchez who has a similar skill set, age, and control. I wonder if a Soria/Cedeno combo would be enough to snag Dillon Tate? 

[Jose Abreu]

I don't see the point in acquiring a basically league-average hitting, poor fielding, 26 year old utility infielder. As @JUSTgottaBELIEVE said, he's like Yolmer- kind of the anti-Yolmer because he's more offense first while Yolmer is more defense first. I don't see the fit 

[GreenSox]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Think the Yankees may part with Brandon Drury ? Would we even want him ? 

I'm sure the Yankees would as he, but I would hope we wouldn't.  The Astros AAA team, however, has more interesting 3B.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

As I was saying, Soria has been flat out dominant over the past couple months

https://mobile.twitter.com/VinnieDuber/status/1021986117762121729?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

[ptatc]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

As I was saying, Soria has been flat out dominant over the past couple months

https://mobile.twitter.com/VinnieDuber/status/1021986117762121729?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

With Britton off the market the price and demand for Soria just inched up a little. Good news for the Sox.

Edited July 25, 2018 by ptatc

[ChiSoxJon]

4 minutes ago, ChiSoxJon said:

This article states SEA has been scouting Soria

https://www.dailyherald.com/sports/20180724/as-deadline-nears-veteran-pitchers-white-soxs-best-trade-chips

Not sure what they'd net and SEA's farm is awful but SS Juan Querecuto and RHP Wyatt Mills interest me...Should be able to net something higher end however