Make A Deal: Joakim Soria

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

I really hope I am wrong and someone gets a hard on for Soria.  That would be wonderful for the rebuild.

Keep your eyes on the Mariners/Sox series. Mariners could use him if they don't aim a little higher like for Britton or Familia. But that's the case with most teams. Soria may not get moved until we see where some other guys go.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

6 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Assuming we move Soria in a one-for-one trade, here’s who I’d target from each contender:

• Astros - Perez, RHP (AA)
• Mariners - Rodriguez, OF (DSL)
• Red Sox - Houck, RHP (A+)
• Yankees - Sauer, RHP (A-)
• Dodgers - Sheffield, RHP (A+)
• Rockies - Vilade, 3B (A)
• Diamondbacks - Varsho, C (A+)
• Braves - Contreras, C (A)
• Phillies - Romero, LHP (AA)
• Nationals - Antuna, SS/3B (A)
• Cubs - Albertos, RHP (A)
• Brewers - Feliciano, C (A+)

Who else would you target from the Mariners ?

Edited July 20, 2018 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Chicago White Sox]

13 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Keep your eyes on the Mariners/Sox series. Mariners could use him if they don't aim a little higher like for Britton or Familia. But that's the case with most teams. Soria may not get moved until we see where some other guys go.

 

11 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Who else would you target from the Mariners ?

The problem with the Mariners is they have a terrible farm system, perhaps the worst in all of baseball.  Not a lot to like there.  Kyle Lewis is probably their best chip and his stock has really fallen due to injuries and poor performance.  I’m gusssing the Mariners wouldn’t trade him at his low point.  They also have Evan White (who I liked during last year’s draft) but he seems a bit redundant with Gavin Sheets.  Just not much after that.  Julio Rodriguez would at least provide some upside.  I’d rather gamble on ceiling at this point in the rebuild than settle on floor.

[Eminor3rd]

Yeah guys, I'm with ss2k5 on this one -- you guys are expecting a lot for Soria. I hope you're right, but front offices know just as well as we do that relievers can look fantastic over 30 inning stints and completely fall of a cliff at any moment. 

Edited July 20, 2018 by Eminor3rd

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, Eminor3rd said:

Yeah guys, I'm with ss2k5 on this one -- you guys are expecting a lot for Soria. I hope you're right, but front offices know just as well as we do that relievers can look fantastic over 30 inning stints and completely fall of a cliff at any moment. 

The peripherals have been pretty good though dating to last year.  I really don’t think a 45 FV prospect is unreasonable for Soria.  It seems like the market is actually positioned pretty well for sellers as almost all buyers need relief help.

[wrathofhahn]

5 hours ago, DH in the NL said:

Do you value Ruiz or Smith over Collins and Zavala? 

Smith is probably the hotest catching prospect in baseball right now and has all the tools from a defensive standpoint. 

Zavala isn't worth mentioning. Collins has had 28 PB in 138 games and strikes out way too much he's still a good prospect at C but there is a ton of risk just because he doesn't have the natural feel of a Smith or even Ruiz he'll basically have to hit to stay there. Actually one of the things I like about the dodgers is they force many of their guys to basically play two positions even a guy like Smith who can play a solid C also plays 3B.

[ChiSoxJon]

9 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What other interesting prospects do they have?  Chavis really doesn’t do anything for me.  Maybe roll the dice on Tanner Houck?  Their farm system is pretty garbage TBH.

Chavis is their top guy, highly regarded, and untouchable...Groome is almost there and I doubt Houck is available, definitely an underwhelming system but maybe a guy like Brannen is available or Chathham or Ockimey, Roniel Raudes interests me as well or a Tatis type flier like Antoni Flores

[ChiSoxJon]

6 hours ago, DH in the NL said:

Do you value Ruiz or Smith over Collins and Zavala? 

Ruiz>Collins>Smith>Zavala

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

I really hope I am wrong and someone gets a hard on for Soria.  That would be wonderful for the rebuild.

Agreed

Likely the last opportunity to grab any type of significant value from another org. as I see CWS holding onto both Avi and Jose

Gonna have to add via draft and J2 from here on out

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, ChiSoxJon said:

Ruiz>Collins>Smith>Zavala

Agreed

Likely the last opportunity to grab any type of significant value from another org. as I see CWS holding onto both Avi and Jose

Gonna have to add via draft and J2 from here on out

Unless they want to flip a young pitcher at some point, probably.  I think the injuries to Rodon, Avi, and Nate Jones make them pretty much worthless on the trade market.  Abreu's slump might torpedo his value, but at the same time the Astros seem to have interest so who knows.

[wrathofhahn]

1 hour ago, ChiSoxJon said:

Ruiz>Collins>Smith>Zavala

Agreed

Likely the last opportunity to grab any type of significant value from another org. as I see CWS holding onto both Avi and Jose

Gonna have to add via draft and J2 from here on out

Smith is easily ahead of Collins probably ahead of Ruiz.

Ruiz is having a terrible year probably has fallen to the borders of the top 100. Smith always had the defensive skillset the question is his bat well he's answering those questions in a big way and unlike Collins he's doing it in a way that is much more translatable to the ML level (ie making contact).

Collins has 109 SO in 380 PA. He's not going to have a 400 ish OBP with a 225-250 avg at the MLB level sorry. His BB% is 21.1.

[Sox Fan In Husker Land]

1 hour ago, wrathofhahn said:

Smith is easily ahead of Collins probably ahead of Ruiz.

unlike Collins he's doing it in a way that is much more translatable to the ML level (ie making contact).

Collins has 109 SO in 380 PA. He's not going to have a 400 ish OBP with a 225-250 avg at the MLB level sorry. His BB% is 21.1.

Good to know that Collins ability to draw walks won't translate to the majors. 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Sox Fan In Husker Land said:

Good to know that Collins ability to draw walks won't translate to the majors. 

I thought drawing walks was like the #1 thing that translated to the majors ?‍♂️

[wrathofhahn]

Just now, Sox Fan In Husker Land said:

Good to know that Collins ability to draw walks won't translate to the majors. 

Of course it will but not at his ML percentages.

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, wrathofhahn said:

Of course it will but not at his ML percentages.

But a guy like him has also likely been the victim of poor minor league umpiring, so I wouldn’t assume his K rate will automatically get worse.

[wrathofhahn]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

But a guy like him has also likely been the victim of poor minor league umpiring, so I wouldn’t assume his K rate will automatically get worse.

Mike Trout leads the league in BB% with 19.6%. Like I said Collins BB% is 21.1. You guys are being unreasonable.

He can be as patient as he wants if his slugging and avg stays the same .429 (.435 career) and .247 (.236 career) at the MLB level pitchers are going to allow him to put the ball into play. I don't really know what else is there to say.

 

Edited July 21, 2018 by wrathofhahn

[Chicago White Sox]

8 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

Mike Trout leads the league in BB% with 19.6%. Like I said Collins BB% is 21.1. You guys are being unreasonable.

He can be as patient as he wants if his slugging and avg stays the same .429 (.435 career) and .247 (.236 career) at the MLB level pitchers are going to allow him to put the ball into play. I don't really know what else is there to say.

 

I’ve said on this very forum that I’d expect a 15% BB rate from him in the majors.  I’m definitely not expecting him to retain his current 21% BB rate.  That being said, I do think K rate will maintain or get better with improved umpiring.  I also think that his power numbers will improve by playing in a bandbox with a juiced ball.  And catching prospects typically see their offensive development lag behind a bit while they focus on the defensive side of things.  I actually think that you expecting his most positive trait to regress and everything else to remain the same or get worse is somewhat unreasonable for a player like him.

[wrathofhahn]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’ve said on this very forum that I’d expect a 15% BB rate from him in the majors.  I’m definitely not expecting him to retain his current 21% BB rate.  That being said, I do think K rate will maintain or get better with improved umpiring.  I also think that his power numbers will improve by playing in a bandbox with a juiced ball.  And catching prospects typically see their offensive development lag behind a bit while they focus on the defensive side of things.  I actually think that you expecting his most positive trait to regress and everything else to remain the same or get worse is somewhat unreasonable for a player like him.

Is it umpiring that is the problem? In 2017 in 426 PA in A ball he had a 27.7% K rate.

All the scouting reports I've read mentioned his long swing and a hitch I really wish fangraphs or really anyone tracked pitchfx data for minor league games. From there it would be more obvious

[fathom]

Familia was traded for A's 17th best prospect and a NR prospect.  I know Soria has an extra year, but it's not like it's a small amount he's owed.  I would say most trade proposals on here for Soria are 2-3 times more than what they will get.

[Jose Abreu]

10 minutes ago, fathom said:

Familia was traded for A's 17th best prospect and a NR prospect.  I know Soria has an extra year, but it's not like it's a small amount he's owed.  I would say most trade proposals on here for Soria are 2-3 times more than what they will get.

Agreed. We should package him to get a slightly better return.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 hours ago, fathom said:

Familia was traded for A's 17th best prospect and a NR prospect.  I know Soria has an extra year, but it's not like it's a small amount he's owed.  I would say most trade proposals on here for Soria are 2-3 times more than what they will get.

Mets also received INT money which is always hard to value. Plus, Mets didn’t eat any money. I would hope the Sox do with Soria to increase the quality of the return.

[Jack Parkman]

On 7/18/2018 at 10:27 PM, fathom said:

So I see unrealistic trade proposal season is back and crazier than ever

Yeah, After seeing what the Mets got for Familia, who's younger and less expensive than Soria, I really don't think the Sox have anybody worth trading this season. Maybe Shields is the only guy that gets moved, and for a Forbes-like guy. Between Abreu's slump, Avi's injuries and general prospect hoarding, there  really isn't worth trading anyone other than Shields, and that is just to open a rotation spot. It is really difficult to see anyone the Sox have available via trade netting anything worthwhile. 

Edited July 22, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Chicago White Sox]

Seems like the Britton market will need to settle before we can move Soria. I’m still optimistic we’ll get a decent piece for him (FV 45 type prospect) and I wouldn’t be surprised if Hahn tries to replicate the Kahnle trade from last offseason and combine multiple assets to get at least one pretty good prospect.

[steveno89]

On 7/20/2018 at 2:44 PM, Chicago White Sox said:

 

The problem with the Mariners is they have a terrible farm system, perhaps the worst in all of baseball.  Not a lot to like there.  Kyle Lewis is probably their best chip and his stock has really fallen due to injuries and poor performance.  I’m gusssing the Mariners wouldn’t trade him at his low point.  They also have Evan White (who I liked during last year’s draft) but he seems a bit redundant with Gavin Sheets.  Just not much after that.  Julio Rodriguez would at least provide some upside.  I’d rather gamble on ceiling at this point in the rebuild than settle on floor.

I'd take Julio Rodriguez all day for Soria. He's far from the majors, but there is big upside with his bat.

[steveno89]

On 7/21/2018 at 3:10 PM, Jose Abreu said:

Agreed. We should package him to get a slightly better return.

https://sodomojo.com/2018/06/23/seattle-mariners-trade-day-joakim-soria/

This article suggests the Mariners trade minor league reliever Matthew Festa for Soria. 

It would be a decent, but unexciting return. I would hope we could do better.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

On 7/22/2018 at 9:41 AM, Chicago White Sox said:

Seems like the Britton market will need to settle before we can move Soria. I’m still optimistic we’ll get a decent piece for him (FV 45 type prospect) and I wouldn’t be surprised if Hahn tries to replicate the Kahnle trade from last offseason and combine multiple assets to get at least one pretty good prospect.

You are probably right but if I am a contending team looking for a reliever I would actually prefer Soria over Britton for the next 3 months. Far less injury risk, slightly lower salary, and he's actually outperformed Britton the last two years. Britton has had some controls issues the last two seasons walking ~5 batters per 9 innings pitched. He's not the same guy he was in his dominant 2016 season.