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What would the White Sox get for Jace Fry?


Dam8610

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The general tenor around here is to not expect much in the way of trades or returns at the deadline for the White Sox, as some players have declined in value while others were never apparently expected to net much at all. One player who I think could provide some value were he traded is Jace Fry. He's young (25), cost controlled (6.5 seasons), left handed, and performing well. What he lacks in track record compared to a Brad Hand, he makes up for with youth and control, two things that are at a premium on the MLB trade market right now. I don't think Fry would bring Francisco Mejia, but considering that's what Hand and a second good reliever brought, I don't think a Top 50 prospect would be out of the question. If the Sox were to put Fry on the block, what do you think would be the best they could get for him?

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The flipside to this equation is why should the Sox trade a guy who is young, has upside, and is cost controlled. He certainly seems like the type of piece you keep.  If we are going to contend, we are going to need to have a bullpen and having a nice, young, cost controlled piece is a good thing. Now if the concern is injuries (given his checkered injury history), than I understand.  

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I feel like relievers are down in value this cycle just because so many tanking teams seemed to have one. The Mejia trade was 2 good ML relievers with tons of control for one prospect, so I don't think that would factor into a Fry trade. I think the best option would be to keep him and reassess at the trade deadline next year. If we still suck and can get something good for him, we just proved that he is good by letting him have two good seasons in a row so the return should be greater than this year; if we are good, then we might have a really good bullpen arm and that means we don't have to worry about trading for one more spot in the bullpen. 

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Consider trading Fry because relievers don't have a long shelf-life (usually) and the Sox won't really need him until 2020.  But he's only pitched for a few months, doesn't have super prospect/minor league pedigree behind him, so I think the return would be insufficient and it would be worth the risk to hold him until at least December.

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11 hours ago, Heads22 said:

Fry has had two TJ's and no track record; he's not gonna net you anything better than something you will hope turns into 2018 Jace Fry.

Agreed. Fry is maybe a guy that can be used as a deal sweetener, but I don’t see any team giving up any significant prospect for a 1 for 1 type deal. 

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12 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

I don't understand this when 3 good months of Kahnle made him the main piece for Rutherford.

Uh, for starters Kahnle was way better at that point than Fry has been this year. Secondly, we added our closer and third baseman.

 

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1 minute ago, fathom said:

And don't forget that Blake's stock was plummeting

And don't get me wrong, I like Blake (and Clarkin, incidentally...) but Kahnle was having an otherworldly year, and we could send Robo to NYY as a known commodity. I also like Jace; but whatever value you think you're gonna get for him in a deal isn't great.

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11 minutes ago, Heads22 said:

Uh, for starters Kahnle was way better at that point than Fry has been this year. Secondly, we added our closer and third baseman.

 

So yeah, 11 K/9 for Fry versus 15 for Kahnle, better ERA for Kahnle for whatever that is worth, 1.49 FIP versus 2.27, 0.8 WAR versus 2.1 WAR. These are big differences.

The extra control makes up for it some, but if you're gambling on the guy to be a quality long-term dominant reliever you pick Kahnle. If Fry is putting up identical numbers next year, and he's done this in the bigs for a year and a half and proven things...then you start talking about him being worth a top 25 prospect with that degree of control. Whether or not anyone would give that up, who knows.

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1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

If Fry is putting up identical numbers next year, and he's done this in the bigs for a year and a half and proven things...then you start talking about him being worth a top 25 prospect with that degree of control. Whether or not anyone would give that up, who knows.

And what is a top 25 really - well, we just got one for Soria, and his most likely outcome is as a situational lefty - could be better, could be worse, but that's the most probable.
So you trade a player, say Jace,  for a player whose most likely outcome is to become in 2 years what Jace is right now.   
It's tough to make real gains unless you draft it yourself or you trade a monster player or you hit a lottery ticket (which is not all luck - teams that scout well hit more lottery tickets than teams that don't).
 

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7 hours ago, GreenSox said:

And what is a top 25 really - well, we just got one for Soria, and his most likely outcome is as a situational lefty - could be better, could be worse, but that's the most probable.
So you trade a player, say Jace,  for a player whose most likely outcome is to become in 2 years what Jace is right now.   
It's tough to make real gains unless you draft it yourself or you trade a monster player or you hit a lottery ticket (which is not all luck - teams that scout well hit more lottery tickets than teams that don't).
 

I’m pretty sure he’s talking about a top 25 overall prospect like Hand just landed.

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2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m pretty sure he’s talking about a top 25 overall prospect like Hand just landed.

Yeah, that. A lefty with an established track record, an 11K/9IP rate, a minimum salary, 5 years of control, and showing he's healthy? The going rate for that is one of the top prospects in baseball.

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9 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Yeah, that. A lefty with an established track record, an 11K/9IP rate, a minimum salary, 5 years of control, and showing he's healthy? The going rate for that is one of the top prospects in baseball.

Well I misunderstood. If that's the going rate, and not just a one-time freak outcome, then absolutely nurture Fry for the next year or 2 and see what we have.

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16 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Yeah, that. A lefty with an established track record, an 11K/9IP rate, a minimum salary, 5 years of control, and showing he's healthy? The going rate for that is one of the top prospects in baseball.

Not to mention lefties are hitting .089 against him for a .289 OPS. He's way better than the numbers suggest IMO. His ERA is also heavily inflated by instances where he allows a cheap hit or a walk, and then gets pulled for Rondon/Minaya to allow a ton of runs.

 

If he stays healthy (relatively substantial if), I think we found a damn good reliever 

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3 minutes ago, fathom said:

Was thinking they should make him closer rest of the year. Could be interesting to see how he does as well as possibly enhance trade value in offseason.

Have we actually seen any big trades for relievers in the offseason recently? Chapman, Hand, Miller - all moved at the deadline. The only one I can think of traded in the offseason was Kimbrel and he's not even really on the same level as the other guys.

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Jace Fry is closer to Adam Cimber, the throw in player in that deal, than Brad Hand (handedness excluded obviously). Proven, elite bullpen arms are more valuable than they ever have been, but solid bullpen arms like Fry are the same fungible assets they always have been. I'd expect a bigger return for Fry than what Soria netted the White Sox, but you'd be looking at a guy that's borderline top 10 prospect for a team with good depth or maybe top 5 in a bad system.

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3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Have we actually seen any big trades for relievers in the offseason recently? Chapman, Hand, Miller - all moved at the deadline. The only one I can think of traded in the offseason was Kimbrel and he's not even really on the same level as the other guys.

Are you trying to say that Kimbrel is worse than those guys?

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1 minute ago, TomPickle said:

Jace Fry is closer to Adam Cimber, the throw in player in that deal, than Brad Hand (handedness excluded obviously). Proven, elite bullpen arms are more valuable than they ever have been, but solid bullpen arms like Fry are the same fungible assets they always have been. I'd expect a bigger return for Fry than what Soria netted the White Sox, but you'd be looking at a guy that's borderline top 10 prospect for a team with good depth or maybe top 5 in a bad system.

I completely agree which is why I'd rather hold on to Fry and bank on him continuing his performance. 

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6 minutes ago, TomPickle said:

Jace Fry is closer to Adam Cimber, the throw in player in that deal, than Brad Hand (handedness excluded obviously). Proven, elite bullpen arms are more valuable than they ever have been, but solid bullpen arms like Fry are the same fungible assets they always have been. I'd expect a bigger return for Fry than what Soria netted the White Sox, but you'd be looking at a guy that's borderline top 10 prospect for a team with good depth or maybe top 5 in a bad system.

I’m not sure I follow.  This post seems to indicate that Fry has only been solid and Hand has been much better this year and neither of those statements are true.  The primary reason for a difference in value is due to track record.  If Fry can maintain this level of output for another 2 - 6 months he will be worth quite a bit.  That obviously remains to be seen.

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