Carlos Rodon receiving trade interest

[Chisoxfn]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

I will bet it has. And probably to an equal amount of hang ups once they hear the price. 

His arm is the only thing I worry about. Rodon is going to be an ace, lock down front of the rotation pitcher if he's healthy. I'll worry about his contract in 3 years.  We are trying to get good in the next 1-2 years and you are going to need front of the rotation horses to do that.  We can project Kopech and others, but Rodon is by far the best pitcher on the southside and I'd also say he has as much if not more upside than anyone else as well.  His stuff is dynamic.  When Rodon is due to get paid, we can start talking about moving him if need be, but this is a couple years premature (unless the Sox don't believe in his shoulder LT).  

[Chisoxfn]

53 minutes ago, bmags said:

I don't think our first year being competitive will be 2021, I think we will be competitive during the 3 year window he is with us, and he will be a part of that. One way to ensure we are not competitive during the next three years is to trade rodon.

If the first year this team is competitive is 2021, than a lot of things went wrong.  

[Jack Parkman]

11 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

If the first year this team is competitive is 2021, than a lot of things went wrong.  

A lot of things have gone wrong already. I think 2021 is the most reasonable expectation. 2019 is out of the question. 2020 is up in the air.  The way I look at it is that in 2019, with good health, they could win 72 to 80 games, in 2020 they could win 78 to 85 games, with potential for a  playoff run, and 2021 will be the first season that the Sox are clear contenders. 

Edited July 27, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Jose Abreu]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

A lot of things have gone wrong already. I think 2021 is the most reasonable expectation. 2019 is out of the question. 2020 is up in the air.  The way I look at it is that in 2019, with good health, they could win 72 to 80 games, in 2020 they could win 78 to 85 games, with potential for a  playoff run, and 2021 will be the first season that the Sox are clear contenders. 

You're also assuming no major FA signings. 2019 is not out of the question (for a .500 or better season) if we make some major signings this offseason. 

[Jack Parkman]

21 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

His arm is the only thing I worry about. Rodon is going to be an ace, lock down front of the rotation pitcher if he's healthy. I'll worry about his contract in 3 years.  We are trying to get good in the next 1-2 years and you are going to need front of the rotation horses to do that.  We can project Kopech and others, but Rodon is by far the best pitcher on the southside and I'd also say he has as much if not more upside than anyone else as well.  His stuff is dynamic.  When Rodon is due to get paid, we can start talking about moving him if need be, but this is a couple years premature (unless the Sox don't believe in his shoulder LT).  

I'm really high on Rodon, and would really like for him to stick around, but I don't see it based on his current trajectory+Boras. If someone is willing to give a Q like deal for Rodon, you take a gulp, bite the bullet and move him. It is a shame, but he really doesn't fit the window. 

Edited July 27, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

A lot of things have gone wrong already. I think 2021 is the most reasonable expectation. 2019 is out of the question. 2020 is up in the air.  The way I look at it is that in 2019, with good health, they could win 72 to 80 games, in 2020 they could win 78 to 85 games, with potential for a  playoff run, and 2021 will be the first season that the Sox are clear contenders. 

2019 was always out of the question.  It just took longer for many to realize that. 

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

You're also assuming no major FA signings. 2019 is not out of the question (for a .500 or better season) if we make some major signings this offseason. 

Well yeah, because I wouldn't sign anyone in the winter 2018 FA class other than Machado, and he's not coming here. 

Edited July 27, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[chitownsportsfan]

No reason to deal him unless you receive a Quintana trade like offer, which is highly unlikely obviously.   It's too bad his agent is Boras.  Has Boras ever agreed to a pre-FA contract?  I'd consider extending Rodon this offseason if Boras is willing to listen.

[Jack Parkman]

3 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

No reason to deal him unless you receive a Quintana trade like offer, which is highly unlikely obviously.   It's too bad his agent is Boras.  Has Boras ever agreed to a pre-FA contract?  I'd consider extending Rodon this offseason if Boras is willing to listen.

Yes, with Strasburg. He had an extensive injury history which is why Boras advised him to take the money and run. He only gives 150-180 innings of quality work each year. I don't know if Boras/Rodon would feel the same way about Rodon's injury history or not. 

Edited July 27, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[chitownsportsfan]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

Yes, with Strasburg. He had an extensive injury history which is why Boras advised him to take the money and run. He only gives 150-180 innings of quality work each year. 

Interesting, as Rodon has similar concerns.

[bmags]

I still think there will be a big regression to the mean next year. This team, while not good, was not as bad as it played. The worst in ks/worst in walks stuff, I just think we'll have a nice snap back next year.

[Jose Abreu]

Just now, chitownsportsfan said:

Interesting, as Rodon has similar concerns.

Strasburg got 7/175 though. I love Rodon but I'm not even considering anything more than 5/80 or so right now if I'm Hahn. 

[Jose Abreu]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

I still think there will be a big regression to the mean next year. This team, while not good, was not as bad as it played. The worst in ks/worst in walks stuff, I just think we'll have a nice snap back next year.

As the trash (Engel, Thompson, Volstad, etc) continues to exit the roster, that will also have a substantial effect. Even with no FA acquisitions, if we can stay relatively healthy, I see us winning 73-83 games next year. 

[Jack Parkman]

15 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

Strasburg got 7/175 though. I love Rodon but I'm not even considering anything more than 5/80 or so right now if I'm Hahn. 

Strasburg was in his walk year when they agreed to the extension though. Rodon would have to get hurt this year, and the next two years and miss about 4-8 weeks for each injury for the situation to be similar. 

I agree, but it would take something like 5/100 or 6/120 to get Boras to listen. If Rodon stays healthy through the ASB, makes the ASG, and pitches like an ace I'd consider it. But at that point, I don't think Boras/Rodon will. 

 

Edited July 27, 2018 by Jack Parkman
consolidation of posts

[iWiN4PreP]

40 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Yankees:  Torres, A. Abreu + flyer OR Sheffield, Florial, Acevedo+flyer 

Gleyber Torres is worth more than DeGrom and worth much more than Rodon.

[GreenSox]

13 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I agree, but it would take something like 5/100 or 6/120 to get Boras to listen. If Rodon stays healthy through the ASB, makes the ASG, and pitches like an ace I'd consider it. But at that point, I don't think Boras/Rodon will. 

Sox obviously can't make an offer like that right now.
Plus, the Sox are big on personalities/chemistry and other fluff stuff. Do the Sox see Rodon as part of the future?  
It's probably a matter of trading him now or next year.  If the Q like offer is made, they have to take it.  If it isn't, it's probably worth the wait,
Assuming all of the possible suitors actually like Rodon, then I'd think the Padres are the most likely to come in with an offer because they should be able to move Mejia without much angst.

Edited July 27, 2018 by GreenSox

[Jack Parkman]

9 minutes ago, iWiN4PreP said:

Gleyber Torres is worth more than DeGrom and worth much more than Rodon.

If Gleyber Torres is worth more than DeGrom, then Jimenez was worth more than Quintana last season. Was that true? If it is, then that would explain the crappy return for players at this year's TDL. The Sox should thank their lucky stars they were able to get both Jimenez and Cease for Quintana, based on where the market is going. 

I think teams are overvaluing prospects currently, to the point that it is eventually going to stifle the trade markets. It is going to come to a point where it isn't worth it to trade your players, as if they are QO worthy the pick that you receive will be worth more than anything a team could get for their players. 

Edited July 27, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[kwill]

I think we have a tendency to get into prospect/rebuild mode and want to trade everybody. I would much rather move forward with keeping Rodon with a large extension. At some point, The White Sox need to pay somebody,  for me its the lefty going into his prime throwing 98. I would hate to look back next year and think we traded the two best left handed pitchers in the American league. 

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, kwill said:

I think we have a tendency to get into prospect/rebuild mode and want to trade everybody. I would much rather move forward with keeping Rodon with a large extension. At some point, The White Sox need to pay somebody,  for me its the lefty going into his prime throwing 98. I would hate to look back next year and think we traded the two best left handed pitchers in the American league. 

I tend to agree, however it takes two to tango. As long as Boras is representing Rodon, you have to believe his intention is to go to the open market with no exceptions. Strasburg is the only Boras client that was performing well but re-signed with the team that drafted him, and there were extenuating circumstances revolving around that. 

Edited July 27, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[35thstreetswarm]

12 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

If Gleyber Torres is worth more than DeGrom, then Jimenez was worth more than Quintana last season. Was that true? If it is, then that would explain the crappy return for players at this year's TDL. The Sox should thank their lucky stars they were able to get both Jimenez and Cease for Quintana, based on where the market is going. 

I think teams are overvaluing prospects currently, to the point that it is eventually going to stifle the trade markets. It is going to come to a point where it isn't worth it to trade your players, as if they are QO worthy the pick that you receive will be worth more than anything a team could get for their players. 

Eloy Jimenez was an A-ball prospect.  Gleyber Torres is a 22-year-old slashing .289/.347/.542/.889 for the New York Yankees .

[Jack Parkman]

10 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

Eloy Jimenez was an A-ball prospect.  Gleyber Torres is a 22-year-old slashing .289/.347/.542/.889 for the New York Yankees .

I understand that, but there is no track record. Rodon has more of a track record of being a MLB pitcher than Torres has of being an MLB hitter, despite him coming up and setting the world on fire. Gordon Beckham put up similar numbers when he was called up. Any questions Now?  Until a player is established, you don't know if their first year is a fluke or not. Wait until Torres has to make adjustments. We'll see. 

Beckham slashed .270/.347/.460/.808 for the Sox in 2009. 

Until Torres does it again, it means nothing. 

Edited July 27, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[chitownsportsfan]

It's amazing how much 250 or so PA turned Torres into a guy that is guaranteed to put up a 900 OPS until he's 33.  Torres is also not long for 2B imo.  At least not full time.

[GenericUserName]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

I understand that, but there is no track record. Rodon has more of a track record of being a MLB pitcher than Torres has of being an MLB hitter, despite him coming up and setting the world on fire. Gordon Beckham put up similar numbers when he was called up. Any questions now. Until a player is established, you don't know if their first year is a fluke or not. Wait until Torres has to make adjustments. We'll see. 

That doesn't prove your point. You were making a false equivalency between a major league player and an A ball prospect. 

[Jack Parkman]

11 minutes ago, GenericUserName said:

That doesn't prove your point. You were making a false equivalency between a major league player and an A ball prospect. 

I was using their prospect ranking before Torres was called up as a basis for that comparison, in which they were generally on par. Despite what the rules say, I consider a player that has recently broken into the bigs a prospect until they've accumulated 1000-1200 PA or 350-400 Innings for a starter. 

Jimenez and Torres were similarly ranked, so I don't see where the equivalency is false. 

Edited July 27, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[chitownsportsfan]

10 minutes ago, GenericUserName said:

That doesn't prove your point. You were making a false equivalency between a major league player and an A ball prospect. 

I don't have a horse in this race but Eloy has slashed something like 300/360/580 since he came over from the Cubs in the high minors.  That pretty much cemented him as a top 5 guy.  Before he came over he wasn't tearing it up like that and he was more seen as a 5-15 guy.