Carlos Rodon receiving trade interest

[chitownsportsfan]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

I was using their prospect ranking before Torres was called up as a basis for that comparison, in which they were generally on par. Despite what the rules say, I consider a player that has recently broken into the bigs a prospect until they've accumulated 1000-1200 PA or 350-400 Innings for a starter. 

Yea I'm the same.  I don't think you can really evaluate a guy until he's got about 1000 PA under his belt at the MLB level, maybe even more.   A great example of this is that ZIPS actually sees a 103 wRC+ for Moncada ROS and a 104 wRC+ for Ozzie Albies.   The projection systems certainly don't believe that Albies is really a 135 wRC+ type -- not yet anyways.

[GenericUserName]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

I was using their prospect ranking before Torres was called up as a basis for that comparison, in which they were generally on par. Despite what the rules say, I consider a player that has recently broken into the bigs a prospect until they've accumulated 1000-1200 PA or 350-400 Innings for a starter. 

Jimenez and Torres were similarly ranked, so I don't see where the equivalency is false. 

You were talking production and now you are talking rankings. The rankings argument doesn't hold because Torres is no longer a prospect so we don't know his rank or what any of the ranking would have been before if players with two years of experience still counted as prospects. As for production, Eloy was producing at about the same level Torres is now, except at like four stages lower on the ladder. 

[35thstreetswarm]

7 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I was using their prospect ranking before Torres was called up as a basis for that comparison, in which they were generally on par. Despite what the rules say, I consider a player that has recently broken into the bigs a prospect until they've accumulated 1000-1200 PA or 350-400 Innings for a starter. 

I don’t know what any of this means.  

When he was traded, Jimenez was an A ball prospect who had not yet torched AA and AAA like he did over the last year.  If Torres were traded tomorrow he’d be a major league player who has already blown through the minors and is currently succeeding at the major league level (and at a premium position).  The values of the two are not equivalent.

Edited July 27, 2018 by 35thstreetswarm

[Jack Parkman]

Just now, GenericUserName said:

You were talking production and now you are talking rankings. The rankings argument doesn't hold because Torres is no longer a prospect so we don't know his rank or what any of the ranking would have been before if players with two years of experience still counted as prospects. As for production, Eloy was producing at about the same level Torres is now, except at like four stages lower on the ladder. 

IIRC Eloy was absolutely destroying A+. What I'm saying is that is that I put zero weight in a player's first 800 PA or so. It means nothing. From my point of view, Torres might as well be putting  up those numbers at AAA. 

[Jose Abreu]

3 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I don't have a horse in this race but Eloy has slashed something like 300/360/580 since he came over from the Cubs in the high minors.  That pretty much cemented him as a top 5 guy.  Before he came over he wasn't tearing it up like that and he was more seen as a 5-15 guy.

335./.387/.602 to be exact. Good for a .989 OPS 

[TheTruth05]

I would wait until next year's deadline to make a call on Rodon. If the Sox look strong and on the up with more of our young studs up and some fat trimmed then you hold onto Rodon as the competitive window is truly opening. If they come out struggling like this year (which i highly doubt) you get the best deal u can for him and we strap in for the long term rebuild.

[fathom]

1 minute ago, TheTruth05 said:

I would wait until next year's deadline to make a call on Rodon. If the Sox look strong and on the up with more of our young studs up and some fat trimmed then you hold onto Rodon as the competitive window is truly opening. If they come out struggling like this year (which i highly doubt) you get the best deal u can for him and we strap in for the long term rebuild.

Well said

[chitownsportsfan]

3 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

335./.387/.602 to be exact. Good for a .989 OPS 

But what's his road split?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Just now, chitownsportsfan said:

But what's his road split?

I love it !

[GenericUserName]

6 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

IIRC Eloy was absolutely destroying A+. What I'm saying is that is that I put zero weight in a player's first 800 PA or so. It means nothing. From my point of view, Torres might as well be putting  up those numbers at AAA. 

So your argument is that Torres isn't worth relatively more than Eloy was because he hasn't gotten 800 PAs yet and so we have no idea how good or bad he is, even in relation to others who also haven't gotten 800 PAs yet? Basically nothing before 800 PAs matters because you can't tell anything from those numbers. 

[chitownsportsfan]

2 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I love it !

we've had some good memes come out of the rebuild, if nothing else.

[Chisoxfn]

44 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I tend to agree, however it takes two to tango. As long as Boras is representing Rodon, you have to believe his intention is to go to the open market with no exceptions. Strasburg is the only Boras client that was performing well but re-signed with the team that drafted him, and there were extenuating circumstances revolving around that. 

You never know...always possible given his injury last year that he sees some value in a longer term deal that buys out a year or two of free agency while securing him a heck of a lot of guaranteed money.  Obviously risk on the Sox side as well.  

[chitownsportsfan]

4 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

You never know...always possible given his injury last year that he sees some value in a longer term deal that buys out a year or two of free agency while securing him a heck of a lot of guaranteed money.  Obviously risk on the Sox side as well.  

I'd offer Carlos 4 years 75 million with big team options (25,25?) at the end to get it done.  I think it's a risk worth taking.  Of course it doesn't really make much sense to do that right now.  Be much smarter to wait until next offseason and see how close the Sox are to contending.  If the club wins 80 games next year and Rodon gives the Sox about 180 innings with solid peripherals I'd "overpay" to keep him.

[Timmy U]

I can't imagine any package that any team is willing to pay that I'd trade Carlos Rodon for.  If you're serious about starting to compete in 2020, having a solid TOR guy already set makes all the difference in the world.  I think the next two guys up are Kopech and Cease and that both those guys will have some growing pains because of control.  (Strangely, I have more faith that Cease is going to have average to above average command eventually than Kopech)  The absolute last thing I'd be doing right now is getting rid of a 25 y.o. lefty with premium stuff.  I almost don't care what you get back.  At a certain point, you have to stop tearing down and start building up.

[chitownsportsfan]

9 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

I can't imagine any package that any team is willing to pay that I'd trade Carlos Rodon for.  If you're serious about starting to compete in 2020, having a solid TOR guy already set makes all the difference in the world.  I think the next two guys up are Kopech and Cease and that both those guys will have some growing pains because of control.  (Strangely, I have more faith that Cease is going to have average to above average command eventually than Kopech)  The absolute last thing I'd be doing right now is getting rid of a 25 y.o. lefty with premium stuff.  I almost don't care what you get back.  At a certain point, you have to stop tearing down and start building up.

I gotta say watching Rodon pitch the other night with his jersey hanging off his chest and that little cocky smirk he had on his face made me proud to be a Sox fan and we haven't had many of those moments lately.  He's totally the sort of guy that moves the needle in a playoff game and it would be nice to see him start one.

[Eminor3rd]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

If Gleyber Torres is worth more than DeGrom, then Jimenez was worth more than Quintana last season. Was that true? If it is, then that would explain the crappy return for players at this year's TDL. The Sox should thank their lucky stars they were able to get both Jimenez and Cease for Quintana, based on where the market is going. 

I think teams are overvaluing prospects currently, to the point that it is eventually going to stifle the trade markets. It is going to come to a point where it isn't worth it to trade your players, as if they are QO worthy the pick that you receive will be worth more than anything a team could get for their players. 

Torres is already producing at the major league level. There's no argument at all that Jimenez is an equivalent asset.

[Jack Parkman]

2 hours ago, GenericUserName said:

So your argument is that Torres isn't worth relatively more than Eloy was because he hasn't gotten 800 PAs yet and so we have no idea how good or bad he is, even in relation to others who also haven't gotten 800 PAs yet? Basically nothing before 800 PAs matters because you can't tell anything from those numbers. 

Yes. Exactly. Too small of a sample size. If statistical modeling such as ZiPS or PECOTA doesn't have enough information such that it spits out garbage, then we don't either. 

Edited July 27, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[BamaDoc]

We are about to have a lot of young pitching come up.  I am no fan of his performance, but you have to appreciate the job Shields has done teaching the young pitchers professionalism and helping them in general.  Several of the players have mentioned this.  He will be gone soon or at latest after this season.  If you trade Rodon, there is no-one on the current roster for that role.  I am assuming Rodon is willing and able to do that.  If he is not this point doesn't matter.  If he remains healthy this season, you discuss parameters of an extension.  You have an idea of what it would take.  You reassess as you approach next years deadline.  If you are having a bad year as a team and now it looks like 2021 to contend, you probably move him.  If he is pitching well, he would bring a substantial return.  If the team is doing well and he is healthy and performing, extend him and you have your #1 or #2 locked up.

[BlackSox13]

Four pages of chatter from a Gammons tweet. Well done Peter.

[GreenSox]

46 minutes ago, BamaDoc said:

We are about to have a lot of young pitching come up.  I am no fan of his performance, but you have to appreciate the job Shields has done teaching the young pitchers professionalism and helping them in general.  

What evidence is there of any of this?
What is special about the development of Giolito and Lopez?  They are 2 pitchers who were top prospects and who are still struggling.  Where would they be without the great Shields? 

The best I can tell, this is deflective spin out of Hahn. 
I am not jumping on you  - if it appears that way, I apologize.

 I'm jumping on this FO.

Edited July 27, 2018 by GreenSox

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, GreenSox said:

What evidence is there of any of this?
What is special about Giolito and Lopez?  They are 2 pitchers who were top prospects and who are still struggling.

The best I can tell, this is defective spin out of Hahn. 

About half dozen young pitchers throughout the organization have made comments about Shields helping them with pitches, preparation, etc.

[GenericUserName]

4 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

What evidence is there of any of this?
What is special about the development of Giolito and Lopez?  They are 2 pitchers who were top prospects and who are still struggling.  Where would they be without the great Shields? 

The best I can tell, this is deflective spin out of Hahn. 
I am not jumping on you  - if it appears that way, I apologize.

 I'm jumping on this FO.

Dunning and Cease have both credited Shields specifically for helping them plus there were multiple times during spring training where Shields was shown to be hanging around after practice or during time off and holding court with the young guys and teaching them stuff. I don't think its enough of a reason for us to not trade him if we can, but I also wouldn't doubt that we bring him back as a pitching coach once he retires. 

[Jack Parkman]

3 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Yea I'm the same.  I don't think you can really evaluate a guy until he's got about 1000 PA under his belt at the MLB level, maybe even more.[/B]   A great example of this is that ZIPS actually sees a 103 wRC+ for Moncada ROS and a 104 wRC+ for Ozzie Albies.   The projection systems certainly don't believe that Albies is really a 135 wRC+ type -- not yet anyways.[/B]

This is the point. Albies, who has been up all year, does not have enough of a sample size for the statistical models to adjust. Until there is enough of a sample size that the models adjust, any performance (or lack thereof) at the MLB level is meaningless. You tell me a team that values performance in the majors that puts one iota of value on performance at the MLB level before the sample size is statistically significant, and I'll show you a GM who needs to be fired yesterday. 

Edited July 27, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[DirtySox]

I feel it's certainly in the Sox best interest to start dangling Rodon at this point. It's pretty clear that the timeline has shifted a bit and Carlos will be headed towards free agency in/at the start of the contention window. Especially with the reluctance to get Kopech and Eloy's feet wet until next season. Might as well listen for an over-pay, or possibly set the ground work for a winter deal.

Edited July 27, 2018 by DirtySox

[GreenSox]

15 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

I feel it's certainly in the Sox best interest to start dangling Rodon at this point. It's pretty clear that the timeline has shifted a bit and Carlos will be headed towards free agency in at the start of the contention window. Especially with the reluctance to get Kopech and Eloy's feet wet until next season. Might as well listen for an over-pay, or possibly set the ground work for a winter deal.

You're probably right, although I really don't know why the window has shifted out a year or 2 other than it apparently has and the FO wants to push it back. I hope it isn't for job security.   I think they could put together a competitive (.500ish) team for next year without trading prospects or even going crazy in FA.  But they seem to want to wait.
That said, they probably should move Rodon, but could probably get a lot more a year from now.  But if they get a Q like offer, then by all means.
But they should move Abreu and of course Avi.

Edited July 27, 2018 by GreenSox