Official 2018-19 NFL Thread

[Jack Parkman]

I'm going to stfu about organizational issues and just talk about the play on the field. 

In any event:

1. I actually really like what Pace and Nagy are doing. I just think everyone is jumping the gun on the playoffs. They could win anywhere from 6-9 games this year. If they get to 8 or 9 that is a huge step in the right direction. They're showing signs of growing up as a franchise, and I'm cautiously optimistic there. They're a year or two away. 

2. I'm frustrated that they are falling into the Lovie trap of not having all 3 phases working at the same time. Offense good, defense bad and vice versa. ST is meh. 

3. I agree that tackling is more of an issue than coverage. The reason dink and dunk works vs anyone is that the oppsition can't tackle. I don't like the cushion the DBs are giving receivers. It makes the dink and dunk offense easier to run. Jump a route dammit. 

4. Mitch looks like his floor is average. We'll see how good he gets. He has some footwork and mechanical issues he has to get worked out because they're causing him to overthrow open receivers. He is extremely physically talented. 

5. WRT the Lovie teams, 10 and 11 were probably the best teams he ever had. However, I don't think either were Super Bowl winners even without the  Cutler injuries. It seemed every time Lovie would play a team with a record well over .500, they lost. He had a horrible record vs good teams. Hence Bumslayer. 

[Balta1701]

42 minutes ago, bmags said:

Three of the by reputation best defenses in the league have all given up 30 point + games now to pretty meh offenses in the jags, rams and bears.

Ravens of course have been pretty suffocating, so have bills.

That 2017 Jaguars defense was legit, everyone saw that last year right? #2 in yards given up, #2 in points. The 49ers with JG dropped a 44 point game on the Jags late last year while the Jags were still needing a win to clinch their division and fighting for playoff seeding. The Vikings were the #1 defense last year and we saw what happened to them in the playoffs. The Bears do need to be better than this, but your point is important and correct - very good defenses occasionally have surprising 30+ point games dropped on them. If you want to go to the playoffs with your very good defense, it's how you respond to that.

[soxfan49]

2 hours ago, bmags said:

yeah, that team was good. That San Diego game the team was on all cylinders and then we had the worst qb ever play rest of season. That denver loss...ugh.

I was there. It was tragic.

They lost the week prior at home to KC 10-3. Roy Williams dropped a TD, and the Chiefs' only TD was a hail mary into the endzone as time expired in the first half. Forte got hurt in that game too.

 

1 hour ago, bmags said:

No one will let it be an excuse because it clearly shouldn't be, but the d line looked completely gassed starting in the 2nd quarter. It was 100 degree heat with no wind and that d line that pushes oline into the QB was gone, and they were often just standing up and playing run.

That shouldn't be an excuse because they are professionals, but I love akiem hicks and it was hard to watch his effort and he was on his knees between every play.

I read today that Goldman barely played. That would explain the fact that Gore & Drake had their way in the run game.

 

1 hour ago, Chisoxfn said:

I always wonder what happens to the Bears if that didn't happen. Jay was in a groove in that Martz offense and that team looked phenomenal. Was so fired up after we crush the Chargers. Remember getting a text that evening from "Shipps" saying something about Cutler being hurt and I was like WTF is he talking about.  Of course the text was true and the franchise path was altered from there.  

It was definitely odd. I mean, he finished the game IIRC and he handed the ball off a ton of times, but that's because they were winning by 2 possessions. I just remember it being so out of the blue. They were crushing teams. I think they had won 5 in a row and all were by double digits, and even notorious Cutler haters like Steve Young were so complimentary of that team.

Edited October 15, 2018 by soxfan49

[soxfan49]

1 hour ago, Chisoxfn said:

They will beat the Pats.  

Not being a dick, just genuinely want to know why you believe that.

IMO, it's going to require 5-6 sacks. Teams usually get 12 possessions about. End 5-6 with a sack, Pats humanly mess up 1-2, and then force 2 FG's and allow 2 TD's. That gives them 20 points. Trubisky just needs 21.. (and perhaps a defensive or ST score)

Edited October 15, 2018 by soxfan49

[soxfan49]

52 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I'm going to stfu about organizational issues and just talk about the play on the field. 

In any event:

1. I actually really like what Pace and Nagy are doing. I just think everyone is jumping the gun on the playoffs. They could win anywhere from 6-9 games this year. If they get to 8 or 9 that is a huge step in the right direction. They're showing signs of growing up as a franchise, and I'm cautiously optimistic there. They're a year or two away. 

2. I'm frustrated that they are falling into the Lovie trap of not having all 3 phases working at the same time. Offense good, defense bad and vice versa. ST is meh. 

3. I agree that tackling is more of an issue than coverage. The reason dink and dunk works vs anyone is that the oppsition can't tackle. I don't like the cushion the DBs are giving receivers. It makes the dink and dunk offense easier to run. Jump a route dammit. 

4. Mitch looks like his floor is average. We'll see how good he gets. He has some footwork and mechanical issues he has to get worked out because they're causing him to overthrow open receivers. He is extremely physically talented. 

5. WRT the Lovie teams, 10 and 11 were probably the best teams he ever had. However, I don't think either were Super Bowl winners even without the  Cutler injuries. It seemed every time Lovie would play a team with a record well over .500, they lost. He had a horrible record vs good teams. Hence Bumslayer. 

His first 5 games of year two is better than Wentz's and Goff's first 5 games of year two.

Wentz: 62.7% completion percentage, 2 TD's/game, 0.8 fumbles/game
Goff: 62.8% completion percentage, 1.4 TD's/game, 0.6 fumbles/game
Trubisky: 70.2% completion percentage, 2.4 TD's/game, 0.6 fumbles/game

He's currently 4th in the NFL in completion percentage. IIRC, his TD/INT ratio is equal to Goff's this year. 

I keep hearing that his floor is average, but I keep seeing something different.

Edited October 15, 2018 by soxfan49

[thxfrthmmrs]

9 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

His first 5 games of year two is better than Wentz's and Goff's first 5 games of year two.

Wentz: 62.7% completion percentage, 2 TD's/game, 0.8 fumbles/game
Goff: 62.8% completion percentage, 1.4 TD's/game, 0.6 fumbles/game
Trubisky: 70.2% completion percentage, 2.4 TD's/game, 0.6 fumbles/game

He's currently 4th in the NFL in completion percentage. IIRC, his TD/INT ratio is equal to Goff's this year. 

I keep hearing that his floor is average, but I keep seeing something different.

When I think of an average QB in the league, I think of Flacco, Dalton, and Tannerhill, who has been to playoffs multiple times and one has a SB ring. So being an average QB is actually a pretty high floor.

Mitch's number is heavily skewed by the the last 2 games so you'd want to see more of these games out of him before overhyping him. But he's definitely trending in the right direction.

[whitesoxfan99]

4 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

When I think of an average QB in the league, I think of Flacco, Dalton, and Tannerhill, who has been to playoffs multiple times and one has a SB ring. So being an average QB is actually a pretty high floor.

Mitch's number is heavily skewed by the the last 2 games so you'd want to see more of these games out of him before overhyping him. But he's definitely trending in the right direction.

I thought Trubisky played really well in the second half yesterday other than the pick.  The Bucs game is meaningless for evaluating him though.  That defense looks like it might be one of the worst in NFL history.  Giving up nearly 35 ppg, QBs are completing over 75% of their throws against them and have a 16-1 TD to int ratio through 5 games and averaging 8.6 yards per pass attempt (for reference only Fitzpatrick and Goff are higher than that number so far this year). 

[Wanne]

45 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

I read today that Goldman barely played. That would explain the fact that Gore & Drake had their way in the run game.
 

for what reason?  hadn't read that but seemed odd he didn't have his name called very often.

[bmags]

17 minutes ago, whitesoxfan99 said:

I thought Trubisky played really well in the second half yesterday other than the pick.  The Bucs game is meaningless for evaluating him though.  That defense looks like it might be one of the worst in NFL history.  Giving up nearly 35 ppg, QBs are completing over 75% of their throws against them and have a 16-1 TD to int ratio through 5 games and averaging 8.6 yards per pass attempt (for reference only Fitzpatrick and Goff are higher than that number so far this year). 

The Dolphins secondary is actually very good though.

 

26 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

When I think of an average QB in the league, I think of Flacco, Dalton, and Tannerhill, who has been to playoffs multiple times and one has a SB ring. So being an average QB is actually a pretty high floor.

Mitch's number is heavily skewed by the the last 2 games so you'd want to see more of these games out of him before overhyping him. But he's definitely trending in the right direction.

Last two games is easier to swallow than when a 6td game skewed the first 4. The last two games his YPA is over 10. That's what we're hear for when you have a 70% completion percentage, not that 5.5 YPA crap.

I also think we are starting to see what chemistry means. He finally seems comfortable with gabriel going long. He was way off to start year. Then started throwing ropes, now is getting more comfortable with loft again.

He still has a long way to go, but yesterday actually feels better than TB to me. What hurt the narrative more than anything was the cohen fumble. He was answering TDs with TDs, and he was driving well when cohen fumbled.

[whitesoxfan99]

5 minutes ago, bmags said:

The Dolphins secondary is actually very good though.

 

Last two games is easier to swallow than when a 6td game skewed the first 4. The last two games his YPA is over 10. That's what we're hear for when you have a 70% completion percentage, not that 5.5 YPA crap.

I also think we are starting to see what chemistry means. He finally seems comfortable with gabriel going long. He was way off to start year. Then started throwing ropes, now is getting more comfortable with loft again.

He still has a long way to go, but yesterday actually feels better than TB to me. What hurt the narrative more than anything was the cohen fumble. He was answering TDs with TDs, and he was driving well when cohen fumbled.

Yeah and I think he played really well yesterday.  That is a good sign.  Torching a Tampa D that wasn't covering anyone is meaningless but hopefully yesterday is a sign of things to come.

[Wanne]

10 minutes ago, bmags said:

The Dolphins secondary is actually very good though.

 

Last two games is easier to swallow than when a 6td game skewed the first 4. The last two games his YPA is over 10. That's what we're hear for when you have a 70% completion percentage, not that 5.5 YPA crap.

I also think we are starting to see what chemistry means. He finally seems comfortable with gabriel going long. He was way off to start year. Then started throwing ropes, now is getting more comfortable with loft again.

He still has a long way to go, but yesterday actually feels better than TB to me. What hurt the narrative more than anything was the cohen fumble. He was answering TDs with TDs, and he was driving well when cohen fumbled.

overall agree.  Both fumbles hurt...missing a wide open Miller in the 1st quarter could have changed the entire dynamic of the 1st half.  But one that that really sticks in my craw...the INT that Trubisky threw (could have had a couple other too from boneheaded decisions).  It's not so much the INT...but they had the ball 1st and goal at the 3.  Pound the friggin rock in with Howard and quit getting cute all the time.  You score there you're up 28-13.  Instead the 10 yard penalty (I still think iffy at best call) and then the INT.

[Kyyle23]

33 minutes ago, Wanne said:

overall agree.  Both fumbles hurt...missing a wide open Miller in the 1st quarter could have changed the entire dynamic of the 1st half.  But one that that really sticks in my craw...the INT that Trubisky threw (could have had a couple other too from boneheaded decisions).  It's not so much the INT...but they had the ball 1st and goal at the 3.  Pound the friggin rock in with Howard and quit getting cute all the time.  You score there you're up 28-13.  Instead the 10 yard penalty (I still think iffy at best call) and then the INT.

They scored on that play.....

[soxfan49]

52 minutes ago, Wanne said:

for what reason?  hadn't read that but seemed odd he didn't have his name called very often.

My assumption is the heat

[southsider2k5]

This is just so fitting.

 

[StrangeSox]

Was surprised to see Hoge's tweet earlier that Trubisky is either the 4th or 5th most accurate passer so far this year.

Had the forced INT and the bad miss on the first drive, but he looked solid Sunday after looking phenomenal two weeks ago.

[Jenksismyhero]

51 minutes ago, StrangeSox said:

Was surprised to see Hoge's tweet earlier that Trubisky is either the 4th or 5th most accurate passer so far this year.

Had the forced INT and the bad miss on the first drive, but he looked solid Sunday after looking phenomenal two weeks ago.

Not to compare him to Mahomes, but they had VERY similar games yesterday in that their first 1.5-2 drives were pretty bad, e.g., missing wide open guys/easy throws, and then they settled down and excelled the rest of the game. He still makes some terrible decisions (the falling backwards across the field throws have to stop), but at least some of those downfield throws in the 3rd quarter were on target. His passing potential is slowly coming out each game. His running ability is obviously top notch. Just gotta hope those mental mistakes go away as he matures.

 

[SoxAce]

1 hour ago, StrangeSox said:

Was surprised to see Hoge's tweet earlier that Trubisky is either the 4th or 5th most accurate passer so far this year.

Had the forced INT and the bad miss on the first drive, but he looked solid Sunday after looking phenomenal two weeks ago.

I think the stat that'll surprise people the most is Mitch is top 5 in rushing yards for a QB this season. Dude is just a physical talent.

[soxfan49]

2 hours ago, Kyyle23 said:

They scored on that play.....

I think he's referring to the play Trubisky threw the INT. They initially had it 1st and goal at the 1 & threw which caused the OPI.

[Kyyle23]

1 minute ago, soxfan49 said:

I think he's referring to the play Trubisky threw the INT. They initially had it 1st and goal at the 1 & threw which caused the OPI.

Read it again, it seems he wasn't satisfied with the decision to pass and would rather have run it in.   Hard to complain about the original call because they would have scored without the weak PI

[Jose Abreu]

Actually feeling decent about the team going forward. I'm not worried about the defense, I don't think that the weather effect yesterday can be emphasized enough, especially because they didn't implode until the 3rd quarter. But the offense is showing a lot of promise and that's really what we needed to see, since we have a lot of reasons to believe that the defense is good or even great. I love Nagy's playcalling, when it's not overtime that is 

[Jose Abreu]

 

[Wanne]

10 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

Actually feeling decent about the team going forward. I'm not worried about the defense, I don't think that the weather effect yesterday can be emphasized enough, especially because they didn't implode until the 3rd quarter. But the offense is showing a lot of promise and that's really what we needed to see, since we have a lot of reasons to believe that the defense is good or even great. I love Nagy's playcalling, when it's not overtime that is 

I agree.  I tend to overreact but it's been so goddamn long that the Bears have been relevant....I'm hungry.  I think the Mack trade raised the bar and his play the first 4 games proved that.  Before...nobody really expected much from this team...just improvement as a team and from Trubisky.  I've been happy with both.

[SoxAce]

Rodgers is just unbelievable. 

[Wanne]

7 hours ago, Kyyle23 said:

Read it again, it seems he wasn't satisfied with the decision to pass and would rather have run it in.   Hard to complain about the original call because they would have scored without the weak PI

No I wasn't satisfied because of a goddamn penalty!  "the woulda scored"...guess want they friggin didn't!!!!   So yeah...it's not hard to complain...especially counting how many "illegal formation" penalties they've had this year...or the fact how hard it is to pass in tighter areas down there...or risk a higher probability of a holding penalty.  If you're not confident enough with your line...or workhorse RB to get 3 goddamn yards with 1st and goal...not sure wtf to tell ya.

Again...not saying it wasn't a weak call...but I'm of the mindset to pound the rock in that position. 

[Kyyle23]

6 hours ago, Wanne said:

No I wasn't satisfied because of a goddamn penalty!  "the woulda scored"...guess want they friggin didn't!!!!   So yeah...it's not hard to complain...especially counting how many "illegal formation" penalties they've had this year...or the fact how hard it is to pass in tighter areas down there...or risk a higher probability of a holding penalty.  If you're not confident enough with your line...or workhorse RB to get 3 goddamn yards with 1st and goal...not sure wtf to tell ya.

Again...not saying it wasn't a weak call...but I'm of the mindset to pound the rock in that position. 

Nagy pounded the rock and Howard put it on the ground, I really didn't have a problem with it.  And the line could have held on a run just as easy as getting that OPI.  The interception was killer but that td shouldn't have been erased