Official 2018-19 NFL Thread

[Kyyle23]

27 minutes ago, Jenksismyhero said:

This just happened with the Broncos 2 years ago. 

And perhaps i'm old (36) but i'm getting to the point where I just want my shitty teams (Sox, Bears, Bulls, Illinois sports) to be GOOD. I don't need them to be GREAT, but just GOOD. If the Bears can be a consistent contender for a playoff spot and maybe get to a superbowl every decade, I will take it. At least I have hope that something can go their way and they can win. I'm sick of watching shitty teams not even sniff the post season.

 

first time in a while in this thread that i say to you HELL YES

  lol

[bmags]

Just saw a replay of Mack's strip of bradford...holy crap.

He starts off instead of rushing just destroying the RB as he goes out in his route, eliminating bradfords blitz hot route, when the pocket collapses he comes all the way back as bradford scrambles to knock the ball out. The guy just has that knack.

[Kyyle23]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

Just saw a replay of Mack's strip of bradford...holy crap.

He starts off instead of rushing just destroying the RB as he goes out in his route, eliminating bradfords blitz hot route, when the pocket collapses he comes all the way back as bradford scrambles to knock the ball out. The guy just has that knack.

it also cannot be understated that he has one penalty, and it is offsides.  No roughing penalties

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

it also cannot be understated that he has one penalty, and it is offsides.  No roughing penalties

I'd be pissed if I was Jackson though 

[Kyyle23]

Just now, bmags said:

I'd be pissed if I was Jackson though 

when that happened the first thing that ran through my head was "DAMMIT, The legend of Josh Rosen starts now"

[soxfan49]

29 minutes ago, Tony said:

Jon Gruden....Football Genius. 

Meanwhile, I know that PFF is a joke because they have their "5 best defensive players in football" list out and Mack didn't make the cut.

[Chisoxfn]

2 hours ago, soxfan49 said:

But the Bears aren't going to be the worst team in football, so unless you like Drew Lock, the mediocre Iowa QB, the slighty-above-average Northwestern QB, or the underwhelming NC State guy, it's a moot point since Herbert is likely going #1 or #2; it's going to be a terrible QB draft.

I never said the Bears were going to get him. Bears need to invest in Mitch for this year and next year, imo....unless he is so terrible this year that he is beyond redemption (thus far I haven't seen anything other than what I call typical young QB jitters). That could still mean Mitch is a giant bust...but what he is struggling with is not unique to terrible QB's...it is what pretty much every other young QB who became great also went through.  It is why I am committed to patience. If he was terrible and didn't put in work and show signs off the field mentally, etc, that would be another story (and technically none of us know whether he is or isn't...only the coaches know that)...than I would come to a potentially different conclusion.  

That said, the risk we took with Mack was that if Mitch wasn't the guy, we would likely be giving up 2 better picks, one of which could be used to take another QB (to extent we wanted to). That said, it is unlikely Pace gets the luxury of drafting another QB early (at least not in the next year or two) so if Mitch is that bad, he's likely gone anyway (or needing to get a veteran QB route...say a Joe Flacco via FA to try and pivot).  

[Soxbadger]

4 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

That said, the risk we took with Mack was that if Mitch wasn't the guy, we would likely be giving up 2 better picks, one of which could be used to take another QB (to extent we wanted to). That said, it is unlikely Pace gets the luxury of drafting another QB early (at least not in the next year or two) so if Mitch is that bad, he's likely gone anyway (or needing to get a veteran QB route...say a Joe Flacco via FA to try and pivot).  

Ive thought a lot about the trade. And (imo) its pretty problematic for Trubisky's tenure with the Bears. Getting Mack is a win (now) soon move. I can definitely see the Bears going after someone who Nagy likes next year in FA to compete with him. 

Trubisky really needs to get it together this year, because I dont think the Bears can just sit around and hope he develops more next year. 

[soxfan49]

8 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

I never said the Bears were going to get him. Bears need to invest in Mitch for this year and next year, imo....unless he is so terrible this year that he is beyond redemption (thus far I haven't seen anything other than what I call typical young QB jitters). That could still mean Mitch is a giant bust...but what he is struggling with is not unique to terrible QB's...it is what pretty much every other young QB who became great also went through.  It is why I am committed to patience. If he was terrible and didn't put in work and show signs off the field mentally, etc, that would be another story (and technically none of us know whether he is or isn't...only the coaches know that)...than I would come to a potentially different conclusion.  

That said, the risk we took with Mack was that if Mitch wasn't the guy, we would likely be giving up 2 better picks, one of which could be used to take another QB (to extent we wanted to). That said, it is unlikely Pace gets the luxury of drafting another QB early (at least not in the next year or two) so if Mitch is that bad, he's likely gone anyway (or needing to get a veteran QB route...say a Joe Flacco via FA to try and pivot).  

I know and I agree, and even if they didn't want to invest more in Trubisky, they have no choice due to the Mack trade.

All I was commenting on was the lack of talent in this year's draft class. You highlighted Herbert but even if Trubisky plays this way for weeks 4-17, they still wouldn't have been in position to get Herbert because they're a 5-6 win team regardless.

[Chisoxfn]

58 minutes ago, Soxbadger said:

Ive thought a lot about the trade. And (imo) its pretty problematic for Trubisky's tenure with the Bears. Getting Mack is a win (now) soon move. I can definitely see the Bears going after someone who Nagy likes next year in FA to compete with him. 

Trubisky really needs to get it together this year, because I dont think the Bears can just sit around and hope he develops more next year. 

If the Bears didn't acquire Mack, none of us are talking / debating Trubisky at this point.  Yes, people wouldn't be happy with his play, but I think more would have a wait and see approach. To me, that approach shouldn't change...when you invest in someone that high and believe in that guy, you need to back him and do what you can to believe. Don't do the Bears thing and not put everything you have, including patience, into this kids development. Bears need to be patient and give him time, coaching, etc, for him to either prove he has it / doesn't.

Bottom line...if Bears want to be great, their best chance (near term) is being patient and investing in Mitch and turning that investment into a fruitful reward. They could certainly pivot, but I think a pivot may lower the "floor" and guarantee a few playoff seasons...but it prevents the upside of truly being great. Mitch might suck...but let him fully prove out that fact and let this season be partially about winning, but more about Mitch's development.  Not doing that is a disservice to the QB, imo. That said, Mitch is a #2 overall pick and with that comes pressure...he needs to be big enough to handle the pressure, etc. 

But before everyone discounts offensive changes or so rookies/2nd year QB's that end up being good, don't play like Mitch is, think about two different things. From the system side, remember when the New York Giants / Steelers made major OC shifts and how much Eli Manning/Big Ben (both of which were veterans at the time) struggled to gel with the new systems (all while having largely consistent personnel). Now think of Mitch...without that experience in a brand new system (much different from what was ran a year ago) combined with the fact that his top 4 wide receiving targets are all brand new to the Bears (Robinson, Burton, Gabriel, and Miller).  

Now on the young QB front, below are some stat lines of a few other recent QB's just to put things in perspective a bit more:

Wentz over 14 starts [14 Pederson]

63%, 241 yards, .9 TDs, 1.2 TO

Goff over his first 14 starts [7 Fisher, 7 McVay]

58%, 201 yards, 1 TD, 1 TO

Trubisky over his first 14 starts [12 Fox, 2 Nagy]

61.2%, 183 yards, .86 TDs, .9 TO

[Chisoxfn]

1 hour ago, soxfan49 said:

I know and I agree, and even if they didn't want to invest more in Trubisky, they have no choice due to the Mack trade.

All I was commenting on was the lack of talent in this year's draft class. You highlighted Herbert but even if Trubisky plays this way for weeks 4-17, they still wouldn't have been in position to get Herbert because they're a 5-6 win team regardless.

I completely agree with this.  

[Soxbadger]

3 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

If the Bears didn't acquire Mack, none of us are talking / debating Trubisky at this point.  Yes, people wouldn't be happy with his play, but I think more would have a wait and see approach. To me, that approach shouldn't change...when you invest in someone that high and believe in that guy, you need to back him and do what you can to believe. Don't do the Bears thing and not put everything you have, including patience, into this kids development. Bears need to be patient and give him time, coaching, etc, for him to either prove he has it / doesn't.

Bottom line...if Bears want to be great, their best chance (near term) is being patient and investing in Mitch and turning that investment into a fruitful reward. They could certainly pivot, but I think a pivot may lower the "floor" and guarantee a few playoff seasons...but it prevents the upside of truly being great. Mitch might suck...but let him fully prove out that fact and let this season be partially about winning, but more about Mitch's development.  Not doing that is a disservice to the QB, imo. That said, Mitch is a #2 overall pick and with that comes pressure...he needs to be big enough to handle the pressure, etc. 

 

 

I dont think there is a problem being patient, I just think that if Trubisky hasnt shown improvement the Bears need to strongly consider bringing someone in to compete for the job. You cant get married to the fact he was #2 overall. That cost is sunk, you have to make decisions that improve your future. If you can get a veteran/young QB who outplays Trubisky next year, you have to go that route.

That is why the acquisition of Mack changed the entire trajectory of Trubisky's career with the Bears. 

For the record Ive never been a big Trubisky fan and its well detailed in the draft thread from that year. I hope he proves me wrong. 

[Chisoxfn]

Let me ask a separate question...how much credit does Trubisky and the offense get for the team ranking #2 in TOP. Obviously a component of that goes to the Bears D for getting off the field...but the Bears offense has had its fair share of extended drives that certainly contributed to that TOP argument. Yes, ultimately an offense needs to score points, just trying to point out, it isn't like the offense has been some horrific dumpster fire.  

[Soxbadger]

10 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Let me ask a separate question...how much credit does Trubisky and the offense get for the team ranking #2 in TOP. Obviously a component of that goes to the Bears D for getting off the field...but the Bears offense has had its fair share of extended drives that certainly contributed to that TOP argument. Yes, ultimately an offense needs to score points, just trying to point out, it isn't like the offense has been some horrific dumpster fire.  

I have no problem with the offense in general. I just think that if Trubisky doesnt show improvement this year he should have to compete for the starting job next year. I just cant agree with handing him the starting job because he was the #2 pick. 

[Wanne]

46 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Now on the young QB front, below are some stat lines of a few other recent QB's just to put things in perspective a bit more:

Wentz over 14 starts [14 Pederson]
63%, 241 yards, .9 TDs, 1.2 TO

Goff over his first 14 starts [7 Fisher, 7 McVay]
58%, 201 yards, 1 TD, 1 TO

Trubisky over his first 14 starts [12 Fox, 2 Nagy]
61.2%, 183 yards, .86 TDs, .9 TO

Saw this too...here's the number of passing attempts in college by Trubisky compared to certain QBs in the league for a little more context.

Trubisky - 572
Goff - 1568
Wentz - 612* (injured)
Mayfield - 1497
Darnold - 846
Mahomes - 1349
Watson - 1207

Kid needs time/reps/experience...and I don't think Nagy would be so high on him if he didn't see what he's capable of.

[Jenksismyhero]

5 minutes ago, Wanne said:

Saw this too...here's the number of passing attempts in college by Trubisky compared to certain QBs in the league for a little more context.

Trubisky - 572
Goff - 1568
Wentz - 612* (injured)
Mayfield - 1497
Darnold - 846
Mahomes - 1349
Watson - 1207

Kid needs time/reps/experience...and I don't think Nagy would be so high on him if he didn't see what he's capable of.

I agree it's still way too early, but what do you expect Nagy to say/do? Tell the world how much his QB sucks and complain that he's stuck with him?

[Kyyle23]

38 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Let me ask a separate question...how much credit does Trubisky and the offense get for the team ranking #2 in TOP. Obviously a component of that goes to the Bears D for getting off the field...but the Bears offense has had its fair share of extended drives that certainly contributed to that TOP argument. Yes, ultimately an offense needs to score points, just trying to point out, it isn't like the offense has been some horrific dumpster fire.  

To me it shows that he knows the offense he is just having trouble finishing.   And a lot of that has to do with his recognition when defenses do something different or unique.  We can only hope that he is recognizing coverages more and more with every game

[Wanne]

9 minutes ago, Jenksismyhero said:

I agree it's still way too early, but what do you expect Nagy to say/do? Tell the world how much his QB sucks and complain that he's stuck with him?

tempered enthusiasm comes to mind.  he's been all in on him since Day 1.   I hear what you're sayin'...but Nagy just gushes over him.  Would he throw himself out there that far and have people question his evaluation skills if he didn't think it to be true...especially with his first HC gig.

[bmags]

I guess the thing that I thought/heard Trubisky was fine with in college (being under pressure) is something he is not good at so far and I have doubts that it is something that improves.

The best QBs in the game are ones that, among other things, are good at extending plays by subtle pocket movements, rolling out, and *keeping eyes downfield*. Then there's brady, who is just unbelievably good along with their coach of identifying defenses, and knowing what is going to be open pre snap and getting ball out.

Trubisky is going first read -> panic rollout. I was just watching the game yesterday and thinking how every time i saw ben/fitz step up in the pocket was a time that Trubs would rollout and start looking at scrambling/checkdowns. 

And I think Nagy is just limited with what will be good for him. I do wonder, Harbaugh had big success with Smith stripping things way down for him before smith eventually became proficient with a complicated offense. WHo knows.

[soxfan49]

R-E-L-A-X

First 15 starts in the NFL

Rodgers: 91.4 rating

Rivers: 90.5 rating

Brady: 89.3 rating

Newton: 85.0 rating

Derek Carr: 77.7 rating

Trubisky: 77.6 rating

Cousins: 77.2 rating

Brees: 75.7 rating

Stafford: 73.0 rating

P.Manning: 72.1 rating

E.Manning: 72.0 rating

Alex Smith: 63.5 rating

[Jenksismyhero]

One problem with those lists is that I bet if you go back and look at those teams, the offensive weapons they had to work with were terrible. Trubisky has better-than-average weapons around him. His O-line is good, he's got a good possession WR, an emerging speedster WR and he's got two really good RB's. 

Being green and lacking experience also doesn't explain his pretty horrific accuracy beyond 10 yards. I can't seem to find an stats on that, but the AZ game he missed about 5 open guys deep.

[Kyyle23]

2 minutes ago, Jenksismyhero said:

One problem with those lists is that I bet if you go back and look at those teams, the offensive weapons they had to work with were terrible. Trubisky has better-than-average weapons around him. His O-line is good, he's got a good possession WR, an emerging speedster WR and he's got two really good RB's. 

Being green and lacking experience also doesn't explain his pretty horrific accuracy beyond 10 yards. I can't seem to find an stats on that, but the AZ game he missed about 5 open guys deep.

Right now he does.  He didn’t last season

[ptatc]

3 hours ago, Soxbadger said:

Ive thought a lot about the trade. And (imo) its pretty problematic for Trubisky's tenure with the Bears. Getting Mack is a win (now) soon move. I can definitely see the Bears going after someone who Nagy likes next year in FA to compete with him. 

Trubisky really needs to get it together this year, because I dont think the Bears can just sit around and hope he develops more next year. 

I don't think there is even a remote chance this happens. It took Alex smith 2-3 years to get good in this offense and he had the advantage of being an NFL QB for years.

[Soxbadger]

4 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I don't think there is even a remote chance this happens. It took Alex smith 2-3 years to get good in this offense and he had the advantage of being an NFL QB for years.

 

Guess it depends on how you define "good".

Smith's first year he had 60% completion, 3k yards, 23/7 int.  If Trubisky has those type of numbers hell be fine.

Again its early in the season and Trubisky has a lot of games to prove himself, but Smith's numbers were good to start. Last year his numbers were arguably excellent as he had the highest rate and rate+ of any QB in the league, plus threw for 4k yards. The Bears cant expect that type of production, but they absolutely need Trubisky to put up a positive td/int ratio.

[soxfan49]

Trubisky's 10th in passer rating in the NFL when under pressure.

Trubisky's passer rating is better than Rodgers' and Brady's on play action.

Trubisky's completion percentage is 9th in the NFL despite taking the 5th most deep shots.

 

35 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I don't think there is even a remote chance this happens. It took Alex smith 2-3 years to get good in this offense and he had the advantage of being an NFL QB for years.

Wentz was pretty blah in his first season in this offense, too. The issue was the Mack trade sped up the "rebuild" and now everyone demands more, but Trubisky needs time. Luckily,Amos, Jackson, Mack, Hicks, Floyd, Smith, Goldman and Fuller are all young.

Again, he may end up sucking ass, but nobody has a way of knowing right now what the outcome will be.

Edited September 25, 2018 by soxfan49