Cracks in trust the process

[wrathofhahn]

I'm having difficulty seeing the process anymore. First of all we definately should have been more active in FA bringing in ML guys who have a chance to rebound. We really only made one deal that follows that line of thinking Soria where we easily came out ahead.

Two, we didn't move the guys we should have Avilian, Cedeno, Frye, Abreu, Garcia (both), all should have been moved. Sanchez should have been moved.

We should have been looking at acquiring distressed assets like Pham. Osuna. Look at what Hand went for we should have attempted to package Soria/Frye/Avilian with some of our guys to get a major prospect back.

So far depending on what happens after the non-waiver deadline it's been a lost year. If the plan is to just suck without stockpiling assets and taking chances on other teams distressed assets we are going to be waiting for a long time.

[caulfield12]

Pham would have cost a lot for an outfielder who basically forced his way out complaining about playing time the last three years, then followed it up with an MVP type year...followed by Moncada’s numbers this year.  On the wrong side of the aging curve, too.  Who would you have been willing to trade for him?

Avilan or Cedeno can still go.  Frye’s value has eroded, obviously.  And Abreu/Avi have been subprime assets that can easily go over the offseason or trade deadline next year.  They still might be wavering on keeping Avi if he can rebound...stay healthy...and be somewhere between his 17 and 18 numbers.  His asking price for a three to four year deal has to be much lower, as well.  

[Balta1701]

1. Abreu and Garcia have either damaged their trade value this year, or it has remained low. They are distressed assets right now.

2. I don't think anyone was going to pay the appropriate price for Sanchez. He has many years of cheap team control remaining and that makes him a useful asset even to the White Sox. 

3. I could agree in acquiring more distressed assets, but I have no issue with the White Sox passing on Osuna and would encourage the White Sox to continue passing on guys like that.

4. No one was giving up a major prospect for Soria + Fry + Avilan. Fry, for example, might even be a distressed asset of the sort you speak. 

5. I don't like the idea of giving up prospects for a distressed asset like Pham, and the Rays actually gave things up to get him. Jake Peter...fine he's not doing anything for us, but the Rays gave up 3 players including the guy who was their #10 prospect coming into the season for Pham. 

6. Finally, you need playing time for these distressed assets. It makes no sense to acquire a middle infield distressed asset right now. We could do so in the bullpen, but name some names rather than hypotheticals. 

[flavum]

Jace Fry. No e at the end. 

[Balta1701]

Just now, flavum said:

Jace Fry. No e at the end. 

Gracias.

[Balta1701]

Kinda wish MLB.com made finding earlier season archive posts easier, but I can note that 2 of the guys Tampa Bay gave up for Pham are now the #9 and #14 guys in the Cardinals system. Yeah the White Sox's system is a ****ton stronger, that might be something like Gavin Sheets and Jordan Stephens, or similarly ranked players, from our system in return for Pham. 

[southsider2k5]

No.  Just no.  Have some patience people.  This isn't an overnight process, and it was never meant to be one.  That kind of mentality is what everyone seemed to want to stop two years ago.

[zisk]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

No.  Just no.  Have some patience people.  This isn't an overnight process, and it was never meant to be one.  That kind of mentality is what everyone seemed to want to stop two years ago.

  You are correct. I some times feel Like a prisoner in stir who is trying to mark time by playing hand ball in the yard.

[ptatc]

4 minutes ago, zisk said:

  You are correct. I some times feel Like a prisoner in stir who is trying to mark time by playing hand ball in the yard.

Agreed. Once they started down the total rebuild process, you have to have the patience to see it through,  no matter how painful.

[GGajewski18]

1 hour ago, wrathofhahn said:

I'm having difficulty seeing the process anymore. First of all we definately should have been more active in FA bringing in ML guys who have a chance to rebound. We really only made one deal that follows that line of thinking Soria where we easily came out ahead.

Two, we didn't move the guys we should have Avilian, Cedeno, Frye, Abreu, Garcia (both), all should have been moved. Sanchez should have been moved.

We should have been looking at acquiring distressed assets like Pham. Osuna. Look at what Hand went for we should have attempted to package Soria/Frye/Avilian with some of our guys to get a major prospect back.

So far depending on what happens after the non-waiver deadline it's been a lost year. If the plan is to just suck without stockpiling assets and taking chances on other teams distressed assets we are going to be waiting for a long time.

All of this, what you said, is wrong.

[Jose Abreu]

3 minutes ago, GGajewski18 said:

All of this, what you said, is wrong.

There are so many contradictions in that post I don't even know how to dissect it

[chitownsportsfan]

I'm still trusting the process but I have serious doubts about Renteria.  That said, if next year the MLB team is as bad as it is this year then we got a problem.  This has to be the low point.

[ChiSox59]

2 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I'm still trusting the process but I have serious doubts about Renteria.  That said, if next year the MLB team is as bad as it is this year then we got a problem.  This has to be the low point.

I will be disappointed if Renteria's contract is renewed.  Girardi is out there - no idea if he would be interested, but the Sox should be trying to get him. 

[ptatc]

55 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I will be disappointed if Renteria's contract is renewed.  Girardi is out there - no idea if he would be interested, but the Sox should be trying to get him. 

When is the end of his contract?

[Bananarchy]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

I will be disappointed if Renteria's contract is renewed.  Girardi is out there - no idea if he would be interested, but the Sox should be trying to get him. 

Girardi is a smart man.  If our farm keeps being as insane as it is and produces MLB talent, he would be crazy not to take a flier.   

[ChiSox59]

7 minutes ago, ptatc said:

When is the end of his contract?

Believe he is signed through next season (originally a 3 year deal).  Usually teams don't let managers go into a season a lame duck.

[Bananarchy]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

Believe he is signed through next season (originally a 3 year deal).  Usually teams don't let managers go into a season a lame duck.

Right.  At least the big league club has been bad enough Rick can justify not extending him, though.

[Wanne]

3 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Pham would have cost a lot for an outfielder who basically forced his way out complaining about playing time the last three years, then followed it up with an MVP type year...followed by Moncada’s numbers this year.  On the wrong side of the aging curve, too.  Who would you have been willing to trade for him?

Avilan or Cedeno can still go.  Frye’s value has eroded, obviously.  And Abreu/Avi have been subprime assets that can easily go over the offseason or trade deadline next year.  They still might be wavering on keeping Avi if he can rebound...stay healthy...and be somewhere between his 17 and 18 numbers.  His asking price for a three to four year deal has to be much lower, as well.  

It's my understanding from a friend of mine who's a huge Cards fan that Pham has a degenerative eye disease too that's only going to get worse.  I have no idea whether that's true or not...but he claims it is. 

[Jake]

One of the secrets to this process is that once you're pretty sure you have a few sure things produced by your system/early rebuild trades, you go out and buy some veterans to round things out.

[Greg Hibbard]

The process isn’t what you want it to be. 

Nobody else thought Abreu wouldn’t stay the same at best, or probably decline, so I’m not sure what value you thought he had in terms of reliable return. 

Nobody else believed A. Garcia’s year wasn’t a ridiculous BABIP outlier.

I suppose I would ask what value these players you mention have to other teams right now, particularly contending ones. To the White Sox, their value is different. 

I think one of the things all of us are tending to overlook right now is that out of this sea of prospects we are hoping to emerge with 5-6 sure fire bets that we get FA to build around, potentially high caliber ones from next year’s class.

 

[footlongcomiskeydog]

24 minutes ago, Jake said:

One of the secrets to this process is that once you're pretty sure you have a few sure things produced by your system/early rebuild trades, you go out and buy some veterans to round things out.

Yep. The Sox are going to have to spend some pretty big money in FA to round this thing out. Thinking that this organization can develop a team like the Cubs or Astros solely through internal players is downright delusional. 

The Cubs signed Lester before they were fully ready to compete. I would like to see the Sox do the same with someone like Patrick Corbin this offseason. 

[wrathofhahn]

6 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

1. Abreu and Garcia have either damaged their trade value this year, or it has remained low. They are distressed assets right now.

2. I don't think anyone was going to pay the appropriate price for Sanchez. He has many years of cheap team control remaining and that makes him a useful asset even to the White Sox. 

3. I could agree in acquiring more distressed assets, but I have no issue with the White Sox passing on Osuna and would encourage the White Sox to continue passing on guys like that.

4. No one was giving up a major prospect for Soria + Fry + Avilan. Fry, for example, might even be a distressed asset of the sort you speak. 

5. I don't like the idea of giving up prospects for a distressed asset like Pham, and the Rays actually gave things up to get him. Jake Peter...fine he's not doing anything for us, but the Rays gave up 3 players including the guy who was their #10 prospect coming into the season for Pham. 

6. Finally, you need playing time for these distressed assets. It makes no sense to acquire a middle infield distressed asset right now. We could do so in the bullpen, but name some names rather than hypotheticals. 

1. Agreed Hahn gambled on Abreu and Garcia then lost. It's somewhat not his fault (as most of us wanted to hold onto Garcia and Abreu to the deadline) but it's still a huge negative as far as the rebuild is concerned

2. That could be true. Still his value is pretty well maximized and his years of control aren't as useful to a club that is rebuilding

3. Disagree.

4. I don't think that is true. I don't think Fry is distressed moreso people are obsessed. I do think the trade market wasn't as good as years past. Only one elite prospect really changed clubs. Interestingly enough not in the Machado deal in the Hand deal.

Maybe, we didn't have enough to get them to move off hand but I hope we tried.

5. Williams was their 14th ranked prospect at the time of the trade whose having a terrible year (but has been promoted aggressively). Our 14 ranked prospect Luis Gonzalez is also rated 50 by MLB pipeline.

Would you be willing to do that deal? Remember Pham had an over 6 WAR last year. If he even stabilizes at 4ish WAR at around 800 OPS you easily win the deal. The Rays essentially paid reliever prices for a quality OF who has the possibility to be much.

6. We should have went after a bunch of these guys in the offseason particularly inregards to the starting rotation.

I guess where I am sort of coming from is I'm of the belief that the quickest way to jump start a rebuild is through trades. Get some talent and move guys other teams want.

We basically started the year with a bunch of guys that weren't terribly interesting and weren't going to net us anything down the road who also probably wouldn't be good enough to play for us when we got good.

[Balta1701]

8 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

1. Agreed Hahn gambled on Abreu and Garcia then lost. It's somewhat not his fault (as most of us wanted to hold onto Garcia and Abreu to the deadline) but it's still a huge negative as far as the rebuild is concerned

2. That could be true. Still his value is pretty well maximized and his years of control aren't as useful to a club that is rebuilding

3. Disagree.

4. I don't think that is true. I don't think Fry is distressed moreso people are obsessed. I do think the trade market wasn't as good as years past. Only one elite prospect really changed clubs. Interestingly enough not in the Machado deal in the Hand deal.

Maybe, we didn't have enough to get them to move off hand but I hope we tried.

5. Williams was their 14th ranked prospect at the time of the trade whose having a terrible year (but has been promoted aggressively). Our 14 ranked prospect Luis Gonzalez is also rated 50 by MLB pipeline.

Would you be willing to do that deal? Remember Pham had an over 6 WAR last year. If he even stabilizes at 4ish WAR at around 800 OPS you easily win the deal. The Rays essentially paid reliever prices for a quality OF who has the possibility to be much.

6. We should have went after a bunch of these guys in the offseason particularly inregards to the starting rotation.

I guess where I am sort of coming from is I'm of the belief that the quickest way to jump start a rebuild is through trades. Get some talent and move guys other teams want.

We basically started the year with a bunch of guys that weren't terribly interesting and weren't going to net us anything down the road who also probably wouldn't be good enough to play for us when we got good.

On Sanchez, here's the problem. Fair value for a guy who is under team control for a long time, who can put up 1-2 WAR per year while also being cheap, is a top 100 prospect, because top 100 prospects have higher bust rates than guys who are established. However, it is not common that teams will give up a guy who "Might" be a 3-4 WAR player for a guy who is a 1-2 WAR player right now. I wouldn't be surprised if Hahn listened on him, but I think he probably got offers similar to what the Twins got for Escobar.

No, I would not deal Luis Gonzalez and another top 20 prospect for Tommy Pham. I would much rather have the guys who are under our control and in our system already than gamble on Pham returning to a 6 WAR player such that I could maybe trade him in future years. 

6. Aside from Miguel Gonzalez and Hector Santiago, who we actually did sign, please name some of these pitchers we should have signed for the starting rotation? The guys who turn out to have been good investments, Anibal Sanchez and Edwin Jackson, did you honestly see those guys coming? They were even minor league deals I believe. The other side of that could easily have been Jaime Garcia or Lance Lynn, who were more expensive than the guys we signed and who have been quite poor.

[wrathofhahn]

59 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

On Sanchez, here's the problem. Fair value for a guy who is under team control for a long time, who can put up 1-2 WAR per year while also being cheap, is a top 100 prospect, because top 100 prospects have higher bust rates than guys who are established. However, it is not common that teams will give up a guy who "Might" be a 3-4 WAR player for a guy who is a 1-2 WAR player right now. I wouldn't be surprised if Hahn listened on him, but I think he probably got offers similar to what the Twins got for Escobar.

No, I would not deal Luis Gonzalez and another top 20 prospect for Tommy Pham. I would much rather have the guys who are under our control and in our system already than gamble on Pham returning to a 6 WAR player such that I could maybe trade him in future years. 

6. Aside from Miguel Gonzalez and Hector Santiago, who we actually did sign, please name some of these pitchers we should have signed for the starting rotation? The guys who turn out to have been good investments, Anibal Sanchez and Edwin Jackson, did you honestly see those guys coming? They were even minor league deals I believe. The other side of that could easily have been Jaime Garcia or Lance Lynn, who were more expensive than the guys we signed and who have been quite poor.

If we ended up with Maciel and Duran I would have been more then happy if it was followed up with a Pham for Gonzalez move.

Our farm gets better and we acquire a more valuable piece down the line what is not to like?

I don't really understand the logic at all of your post. You don't want to give up anything at all for Pham whose much better then Sanchez and who we actually have a spot for instead of forcing him to become a light hitting 3B. Then you won't accept anything but the perfect offer for Sanchez. Don't get me wrong I want as much as I can get for him too but he's a depreciating asset his main value is the control and when we get good he won't have a ton of value to us as we'd probably be looking at an upgrade at 3B. Moncada plays his best position.

Pham is also a guy who if he rebuilds his value can be moved down the line too. That is a reason why the Rays as non-contenders took a shot on him. they aren't in a position to win this season either but probably figured he was worth a look since he was blocked in STL and has 4-6 WAR potential.

There are a bunch of guys yes Sanchez and Lynn. Hellickson. Evoldi. Fiers. Hell I'd feel much better even if we took a chance on a guy like Tillman if he worked out at least there would be some upside to get something for him there unlike Gonzalez and Shields I mean shields is a perfect example he throws 89 MPH regardless how he pitches teams know they can't use him in the playoffs. He was always going to have limited value. My goal was for us to have someone to force him to the bullpen maybe he'd be able to find some MPH there in short stints and would be available should someone implode or get injured.

 

Edited August 3, 2018 by wrathofhahn

[Lip Man 1]

Given that both Kenny and Hahn have publicly endorsed him (meaning they have stuck their necks out for him) Ricky isn't going anywhere at least until his deal is up. And frankly if the Sox kept Ventura for all those years I have a hard time thinking they'd replace him with a high profile guy at a high salary. JR has never done that because he has said he doesn't think managers and head coaches really are that important.