Cracks in trust the process

[Jake]

15 hours ago, iamshack said:

Well he signed Chris Sale in March of 2013, Jose Quintana in March of 2014, Traded for Adam Eaton in December of 2013. 

I’d say these moves alone keep him from some of the ridiculous statements you make above. 

This is important to mention because the moves that have been universally praised post-2016 didn't come out of thin air. The team clearly was being deliberate from 2013-2016 to try and make sure they'd have some options if the attempts to win ultimately failed. We were unlike any other team that has tried to rebuild in that we had several extremely valuable trade chips when the decision was made to go all in on the rebuilding process. This is great because especially with the new international spending rules, trying to rebuild by tanking is a fool's errand.

[Dam8610]

3 hours ago, wrathofhahn said:

Ok but the Astros are probably top three when it comes to finding, drafting and developing young talent. Hahn is about average when it comes to getting something out of his own picks.

What jump started the rebuild wasn't the the draft it was trades and what allowed that to happen was the fact KH signed two guys to way below market extensions. It's also well much easier to identify talent that has already been in the minors for 3-4 years.

I just think we had an opportunity this season to walk away with much more then Medeiros and didn't. We should have brought in more rentals like Soria who could be moved at the deadline. I hope we are active after the deadline Abreu resurgence along with some other teams desperation (ehm Yankees) might make for a deal. 

IMO the last 3 drafts have been highly productive in terms of finding talented players. That may not turn into anything at the ML level, but the farm is pretty loaded, and it's not just the trade acquisitions that make it so. Also, again, year 2 vs. year 7. In their year 2, they only had about half of the players I listed, and most of those players' futures were very uncertain.

[Dick Allen]

14 minutes ago, iamshack said:

Someone please answer this question for me:

What, within this FO’s control, has happened since December 2016, that would lead anyone to believe they should be fired?

The point that something has occurred since then which is even remotely close to a fireable offense is entirely lost on me.

That is not the question. The question is what occurred prior to Dec 2016that would suggest RH and KW are the team that should be in charge of a total rebuild, to build a team with sustainable success.

[Ducksnort]

21 minutes ago, iamshack said:

Someone please answer this question for me:

What, within this FO’s control, has happened since December 2016, that would lead anyone to believe they should be fired?

The point that something has occurred since then which is even remotely close to a fireable offense is entirely lost on me.

What's ironic is there is currently a thread on the board on the White Sox having the top 3rd farm system in baseball behind SD and ATL (who have been rebuilding far longer than the Sox have).

The front office has done a fine job of acknowledging the team needed a facelift, a fresh start, and acting upon it and doing the best they could with the resources they had/have.

Think about it, we traded Quintana just over a year ago, for 2 players who are looking to be elite in Cease and Eloy. One of them looks to be up this year in Eloy, and expects to almost.mirror Bryant in offensive numbers with what he is doing in AAA. Cease could very well be in the rotation mid next season barring any injuries. Quintana wasn't going to help this team win anything anytime soon.

That's just the most recent one. People are just pissed off at all the losing right now. Patience is a rare virtue.

 

Edited August 5, 2018 by Scoots

[caulfield12]

17 minutes ago, iamshack said:

Someone please answer this question for me:

What, within this FO’s control, has happened since December 2016, that would lead anyone to believe they should be fired?

The point that something has occurred since then which is even remotely close to a fireable offense is entirely lost on me.

Let’s just put it this way...would you bet your kids’ education fund (all in) that the White Sox are going to make the playoffs in 2021?

Because I’m sure back in 2014 tons of Astros and Cubs fans would have made that same bet they would be both be there by the 2016-17 seasons.

Everything looks good on paper, sure...but just refer back to how confident Balta was at the beginning of the season compared to today’s, let’s call it healthy skepticism/Doubting Thomas vibe.  He was all LBJ/GOAT/J4L mode.  What caused that?  Well, the last 2-3 pages of this thread pretty much cover the reasons.

 

 

[iamshack]

14 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

That is not the question. The question is what occurred prior to Dec 2016that would suggest RH and KW are the team that should be in charge of a total rebuild, to build a team with sustainable success.

It doesn’t matter. That decision was already made. 

You cannot allow them to preside over this process if you have no confidence in their ability to do so effectively. 

They have done absolutely nothing of any consequence since this direction was taken which would lead one to believe they should be fired. If you want to fire them for the mistakes made in 2015, so be it, but that shows a tremendous flaw in reasoning and decision making. 

[caulfield12]

10 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

That is not the question. The question is what occurred prior to Dec 2016that would suggest RH and KW are the team that should be in charge of a total rebuild, to build a team with sustainable success.

There aren’t many since 2012.

Abreu, convincing Robert to sign and the amount of money earmarked, more draft spending/focus, Avi’s 2017, Anderson’s rookie year and parts of 2018, Moncada for stretches...Giolito and Lopez for stretches.  Rodon fell into their laps as the obvious choice at #3.

On the other hand, how close are we to having Tanaka and Gordon on what would be franchise killing contracts at this point in 2018?  

What assessment have they made since 2011 that was spot on in the FA market?   What has been the real payoff of Marco Paddy?  When have we hired a manager who wasn’t there to absorb flak from the media/fanbase and cover for JR/KW/RH?

Greg’s not right on many baseball insights, but he was dead on about Francona when he joined the Indians.  Even the revenue-starved Indians were willing to pony up legit cash there.

[iamshack]

8 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Let’s just put it this way...would you bet your kids’ education fund (all in) that the White Sox are going to make the playoffs in 2021?

Because I’m sure back in 2014 tons of Astros and Cubs fans would have made that same bet they would be both be there by the 2016-17 seasons.

Everything looks good on paper, sure...but just refer back to how confident Balta was at the beginning of the season compared to today’s, let’s call it healthy skepticism/Doubting Thomas vibe.  He was all LBJ/GOAT/J4L mode.  What caused that?  Well, the last 2-3 pages of this thread pretty much cover the reasons.

 

 

The part about the Astros and Cubs fans couldn’t be further from the truth, Caulfield. Read the book Astroball, which is an account of the building of the Astros by the same author who wrote the infamous SI cover story. Astros fans LAUGHED and MOCKED that prediction. Go check Twitter, if you don’t believe me. 

Secondly, I do not need to bet my kid’s education fund to be confident in this FO and this rebuild. Would I bet a significant sum of money that sometime in the early 2020’s the White Sox will be a perennial competitor? Absolufuckinglutely.

[iamshack]

5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

There aren’t many since 2012.

Abreu, convincing Robert to sign and the amount of money earmarked, more draft spending/focus, Avi’s 2017, Anderson’s rookie year and parts of 2018, Moncada for stretches...Giolito and Lopez for stretches.  Rodon fell into their laps as the obvious choice at #3.

On the other hand, how close are we to having Tanaka and Gordon on what would be franchise killing contracts at this point in 2018?  

What assessment have they made since 2011 that was spot on in the FA market?   What has been the real payoff of Marco Paddy?  When have we hired a manager who wasn’t there to absorb flak from the media/fanbase and cover for JR/KW/RH?

Greg’s not right on many baseball insights, but he was dead on about Francona when he joined the Indians.  Even the revenue-starved Indians were willing to pony up legit cash there.

Assuming this level of hindsight in regards to judgments on FA signings and the like is ridiculous. 

We need to be evaluating our FO on the processes they utilize/employ, not strictly based on results. 

Cashman signed Tanaka. Should he be fired? Dombrowski signed Price. Should he be canned? 

There is NOT an exact science. There is only so much predictive information available, and there is a tremendous amount of luck involved. Stop focusing on individual results and focus on the process.

It’s far more instructive. 

[Dick Allen]

6 minutes ago, iamshack said:

It doesn’t matter. That decision was already made. 

You cannot allow them to preside over this process if you have no confidence in their ability to do so effectively. 

They have done absolutely nothing of any consequence since this direction was taken which would lead one to believe they should be fired. If you want to fire them for the mistakes made in 2015, so be it, but that shows a tremendous flaw in reasoning and decision making. 

It’s not the question of what have they done since the beginning of the rebuild. It is what have they done prior to give them a 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 year window before anyone can critique them again? 

What kind of teams are in a position they have to trade cheaply signed stars! The Marlins? That isn’t exactly high company. 

As I wrote earlier, I believe at the end of next season, we should see some maturing. If these guys already on the big league roster are still struggling to be average, it may be time to look for some new evaluators. What I don’t get is the GM , a guy who has a far greater effect overall in producing a winning team, gets a far longer rope, and much less criticism than uniformed personnel who can only work with what they are given.

[caulfield12]

14 minutes ago, iamshack said:

The part about the Astros and Cubs fans couldn’t be further from the truth, Caulfield. Read the book Astroball, which is an account of the building of the Astros by the same author who wrote the infamous SI cover story. Astros fans LAUGHED and MOCKED that prediction. Go check Twitter, if you don’t believe me. 

Secondly, I do not need to bet my kid’s education fund to be confident in this FO and this rebuild. Would I bet a significant sum of money that sometime in the early 2020’s the White Sox will be a perennial competitor? Absolufuckinglutely.

I know, everyone thought Luhnow was crazy...polarizing...Darth Vader...the early contracts for guys like Singleton, the Brady Aiken fiasco, the Appel fiasco, the JD Martinez fiasco.  The mysterious proprietary database that set the standard for the industry.  Nobody likes change and innovation.  He was essentially Moneyball 2, except with even more “tech geeks” involved.  Luhnow’s a stone cold killer, the Verlander, Cole and Osuna acquisitions are further proof.

Exactly when have the White Sox ever innovated and led the industry since 2006?

And Luhnow at least provoked a strong reaction, one way or the other, love or hate.  Hahn is probably the most vanilla and least charismatic leader since...well, I guess there’s always Robin Ventura to pick on.  Maybe because we’re forced to listen to Maddon and Epstein all the time, the juxtaposition of styles couldn’t be any greater.  Maybe he’s zigging where everyone else is zagging, ala a certain occupant at 1600 Pennsylvania?

 

Edited August 5, 2018 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, iamshack said:

Assuming this level of hindsight in regards to judgments on FA signings and the like is ridiculous. 

We need to be evaluating our FO on the processes they utilize/employ, not strictly based on results. 

Cashman signed Tanaka. Should he be fired? Dombrowski signed Price. Should he be canned? 

There is NOT an exact science. There is only so much predictive information available, and there is a tremendous amount of luck involved. Stop focusing on individual results and focus on the process.

It’s far more instructive. 

Then bring in Sam Hinkie, he could at least sell “trust the process.”  He’s actually something of a cult hero these days in Philly.

[iamshack]

4 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

It’s not the question of what have they done since the beginning of the rebuild. It is what have they done prior to give them a 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 year window before anyone can critique them again? 

What kind of teams are in a position they have to trade cheaply signed stars! The Marlins? That isn’t exactly high company. 

As I wrote earlier, I believe at the end of next season, we should see some maturing. If these guys already on the big league roster are still struggling to be average, it may be time to look for some new evaluators. What I don’t get is the GM , a guy who has a far greater effect overall in producing a winning team, gets a far longer rope, and much less criticism than uniformed personnel who can only work with what they are given.

Critique them all you like. Expecting them to be fired because Alec Hansen or Dane Dunning were injured is a ridiculous standard from which to evaluate someone. This process takes time, and it is not somehow sped up because you believe the FO should have a short leash. The process takes as much time to play out as it would for someone who was on a long leash. And if you accept that, you realize that you cannot fire the FO without allowing the process to play out unless you favor arbitrarily firing them for no objective reasoning whatsover. And if you believe that, you may as well just fire them today, because you obviously have no confidence in any decisions they make moving forward. 
 

This entire premise is based on fundamentally flawed logic. 

[ron883]

On 8/2/2018 at 11:36 AM, wrathofhahn said:

I'm having difficulty seeing the process anymore. First of all we definately should have been more active in FA bringing in ML guys who have a chance to rebound. We really only made one deal that follows that line of thinking Soria where we easily came out ahead.

Two, we didn't move the guys we should have Avilian, Cedeno, Frye, Abreu, Garcia (both), all should have been moved. Sanchez should have been moved.

We should have been looking at acquiring distressed assets like Pham. Osuna. Look at what Hand went for we should have attempted to package Soria/Frye/Avilian with some of our guys to get a major prospect back.

So far depending on what happens after the non-waiver deadline it's been a lost year. If the plan is to just suck without stockpiling assets and taking chances on other teams distressed assets we are going to be waiting for a long time.

I'm surprised you didnt get more flack for being upset that the FO didn't pursue Osuna. They should have acquired a wife beater? I mean, really? 

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, Hot FiRe said:

I'm surprised you didnt get more flack for being upset that the FO didn't pursue Osuna. They should have acquired a wife beater? I mean, really? 

Do Cubs’ fans care about Chapman today?  Would they give up their trophy?  Can we question Epstein’s success because of what we suspect (or are willing to overlook) about David Ortiz?  

It seems the only thing you can’t do these days is 1) be Heimlich with the pedophilia charges or 2) cover up or push under the rug domestic violence/abuse.

I don’t see anyone willing to give back Jimenez and Cease because Q got busted for PEDs nearly a decade ago now.

[ron883]

7 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Do Cubs’ fans care about Chapman today?  Would they give up their trophy?  Can we question Epstein’s success because of what we suspect (or are willing to overlook) about David Ortiz?  

It seems the only thing you can’t do these days is 1) be Heimlich with the pedophilia charges or 2) cover up or push under the rug domestic violence/abuse.

I don’t see anyone willing to give back Jimenez and Cease because Q got busted for PEDs nearly a decade ago now.

You really put using PEDs and beating your significant other in the same category? That's ridiculous. 

 

I don't care if a player used PEDs. I would use PEDs if it made me millions more. I would never beat my significant other. 

[Dick Allen]

 

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Posted 9 minutes ago (edited)

   

No it’s not. I don’t think anyone has said the rebuild is a failure fire them now. I think it is logical to think they shouldn’t be the ones ding the rebuild. It’s also logical to state most other teams if not all, would have changed regimes for such an undertaking.

 

JR has fired 2 GMs during his White Sox ownership for reasons given, Hahn is just as guilty. Roland Hemond was fired after 1985, a season where the Sox won 85 games, because his minor league system was beyond awful, the Sox had some injuries, and the replacements weren’t major league quality. In honor of Taylor street sox, RH checks that box.

He fired Larry Himes, near the end of a rebuild after the Sox won 94 games with the lowest payroll in baseball. Many know that JR didn’t particularly care for Larry on a personal level, but the reason give was can take a team from point A to point B but not to point C.  How that was determined I have no idea, but at the deadline that year, Oakland acquired Harold Baines and Willie MCGee, the Sox added Minnie Minoso, who the commissioner then blocked, and Jerry Hairston, as a Pension related favor. Neither move had Himes fingerprints on it. But if you take JR at his word with the A to B to C crap, Hahn has shown when the White Sox were “going for it”, point B wasn’t much of a problem, but point C was nowhere in sight.

he is a bright guy and talks a nice game. But the fact is, it’s 2018 and there is no evidence yet any of his genius has to do with baseball.

[Dam8610]

29 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

It’s not the question of what have they done since the beginning of the rebuild. It is what have they done prior to give them a 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 year window before anyone can critique them again? 

What kind of teams are in a position they have to trade cheaply signed stars! The Marlins? That isn’t exactly high company. 

As I wrote earlier, I believe at the end of next season, we should see some maturing. If these guys already on the big league roster are still struggling to be average, it may be time to look for some new evaluators. What I don’t get is the GM , a guy who has a far greater effect overall in producing a winning team, gets a far longer rope, and much less criticism than uniformed personnel who can only work with what they are given.

What guys are struggling to be average? Anderson is well on his way to a ~2.5 WAR season with terrible BABIP luck, and Moncada is still on pace for 2 WAR in his age 23 season. Those are pretty much the only regulars on this team that you expect to be on the next contender.

[SCCWS]

30 minutes ago, iamshack said:

Assuming this level of hindsight in regards to judgments on FA signings and the like is ridiculous. 

We need to be evaluating our FO on the processes they utilize/employ, not strictly based on results. 

Cashman signed Tanaka. Should he be fired? Dombrowski signed Price. Should he be canned? 

There is NOT an exact science. There is only so much predictive information available, and there is a tremendous amount of luck involved. Stop focusing on individual results and focus on the process.

It’s far more instructive. 

Bad comparison. You have to look at the big picture. When we finally become relevent, Hahn will get to show his ability to sign and trade for impact players. The Red Sox and Yankees are having outstanding seasons and a couple of their FA signings are the reason i.e Martinez and Stanton.  Price, to me, is a bust considering the contract but Porcello is a stud.  Tanaka is 61-30 in 5 years w Yanks. Cashman may have overpaid but his performance has been solid.  When we join the big boys, signing free agents and trading for impact players will be like prospects some hits some misses. 

[Dick Allen]

9 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

What guys are struggling to be average? Anderson is well on his way to a ~2.5 WAR season with terrible BABIP luck, and Moncada is still on pace for 2 WAR in his age 23 season. Those are pretty much the only regulars on this team that you expect to be on the next contender.

Isn’t 2 WAR average?

[Dam8610]

9 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Isn’t 2 WAR average?

Average starter. I don't consider being on pace to be an average starter "struggling to be average". Maybe you do.

[Dam8610]

18 minutes ago, SCCWS said:

Bad comparison. You have to look at the big picture. When we finally become relevent, Hahn will get to show his ability to sign and trade for impact players. The Red Sox and Yankees are having outstanding seasons and a couple of their FA signings are the reason i.e Martinez and Stanton.  Price, to me, is a bust considering the contract but Porcello is a stud.  Tanaka is 61-30 in 5 years w Yanks. Cashman may have overpaid but his performance has been solid.  When we join the big boys, signing free agents and trading for impact players will be like prospects some hits some misses. 

And the whole point of this process (go read Balta's posts prior to this tangent and he'll tell you) was to be certain that the organization wasn't relying on free agency to be a competitive team. It's about mitigating the risk of signing a big name free agent by having a farm system that can supplement through callups or trades in case that big contract turns out to be a bust. Why now, suddenly, does everyone want to fire Hahn over his past failings in pro personnel evaluation?

[Chicago White Sox]

So everyone remembers Hahn’s trades during the rebuild, but I thought it would be fun to look at Hahn’s prior to the official sell-off (which I view as the Duke for Tilson trade).  I’ve included my scoring each for the hell of it.

• Jeff Soptic to the Giants for Conor Gillaspie (9/10)
• Matt Thornton to the Red Sox for Brandon Jacobs (7/10)
• Jake Peavy to the Red Sox for Avi Garcia, Frankie Montas, Cleulius Rondon, & JB Wendelken (7/10)
• Alex Rios to the Rangers for Luery Garcia (8/10)
• Hector Santiago & Brandon Jacobs in three team trade for Adam Eaton (10/10)
• Addison Reed to the Diamondbacks for Matt Davidson (7/10)
• Gordon Beckham to the Angels for Yencey Almonte (10/10)
• Marcus Semien, Chris Bassitt, Josh Phegley, & Rangel Ravelo to the A’s for Jeff Samardzija & Michael Ynoa (4/10)
• Andre Rienzo to the Marlins for Dan Jennings (8/10)
• Yency Almonte to the Rockies for Tommy Kahnle (9/10)
• JB Wendelken & Zack Erwin to the A’s for Brett Lawrie (7/10)
• Trayce Thompson, Micah Johnson, & Frankie Montas in three team trade for Todd Frazier (7/10)
• Erik Johnson & Fernando Tatis to the Padres for James Shields (0/10)

Honestly, looking back at those moves there are only two I would consider questionable.  Shark wasn’t a great idea from the get go, but at least we ended up with a 1st round pick out of it.  The Shields move is obviously a disaster and looks like it may be one of the worst trades in franchise history.  Otherwise, I think he’s done pretty well on the trade front with the Eaton & two Almonte trades being big winners.  Obviously this doesn’t excuse the misses in free agency and some other mistakes, but his track record isn’t as bad as some people would have you believe.

[wrathofhahn]

41 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Do Cubs’ fans care about Chapman today?  Would they give up their trophy?  Can we question Epstein’s success because of what we suspect (or are willing to overlook) about David Ortiz?  

It seems the only thing you can’t do these days is 1) be Heimlich with the pedophilia charges or 2) cover up or push under the rug domestic violence/abuse.

I don’t see anyone willing to give back Jimenez and Cease because Q got busted for PEDs nearly a decade ago now.

Or more in line with my original thought process do you think Yankee fans care they traded for Chapman when the allegations hit. What did they end up with? Oh that is right Torres, Warren, and McKinney.

AND Chapman

[SCCWS]

2 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

And the whole point of this process (go read Balta's posts prior to this tangent and he'll tell you) was to be certain that the organization wasn't relying on free agency to be a competitive team. It's about mitigating the risk of signing a big name free agent by having a farm system that can supplement through callups or trades in case that big contract turns out to be a bust. Why now, suddenly, does everyone want to fire Hahn over his past failings in pro personnel evaluation?

The whole point of this rebuild is to be a playoff team.  Every playoff team uses free agency to supplement the farm system and  trades.  Yes the big contract can turn out to be a bust but so can trading away valuable prospects for players and so can draft picks.