Not even the FutureSox staff agree on Eloy promotion timing - a discussion

[NorthSideSox72]

So, shortly after Brian's article that pushed the idea of waiting to next April to bring up Eloy, some of the FutureSox writers got into a group text discussion on the topic. We... don't all agree. But the discussion was interesting so we decided to turn it into an article.

Here is that article! This gives you a glimpse into some of the personalities of our writers, but more importantly shows that even for people close to the farm system, there is no universal answer on this subject.

If you were on this thread, what point would you have brought up that maybe we didn't?

[Sleepy Harold]

One common argument that I've seen for calling them up now is that if the Sox waited until April '19 (to have control until 2025) that it would leave a bad taste in their mouths and they would walk once free agency hit after 2025.  The "call them up now crowd" say promoting them now puts the org in good graces with the players (which I could buy, it makes sense to a point).  There's a lot that could happen between now and then that could have them fall out of favor with the Sox brass (not saying it will happen, just playing devil's advocate for this exercise). What I find interesting is that nothing guarantees that if they're called up now, that they would be more willing to sign extensions with the club after/prior to the end of 2024 when they'd be able to walk, rather than guaranteeing yourself (from the club's perspective) the extra year of contract control and trying your hand at an extension.  Sure, they may in fact do so, but they could also both walk a year early, and then what?  I don't think anyone can say for certain that an extension would be more likely to happen because they were called up now unless you're Eloy or Kopech. 

Personally I thought that they would already both be up by now (I had predicted July to some friends before the season began), but since they aren't, I'd rather have the one extra year of control while they're still in their primes, rather than risk losing them a year earlier.  It's not necessarily me siding with management on this either, I'd say it's more of me being selfish and wanting to have these players play on the Sox for as long as possible (if they truly develop into the impact players we think they will be).  I'd love to see them both up here and playing, because of course it would make the team more watchable and exciting, but I've been very patient thus far, what's a little more time when you think of the bigger picture?

Just my 2 cents, enjoyed reading the convo, it was very entertaining! 

Edited August 3, 2018 by Sleepy Harold

[kevo880]

Lol is Owen really Patrick Nolan?

[The Sir]

"So if 2020-2024 is a time they intend to win, then why is it not valuable to have Eloy/Kopech work through growing pains at the MLB level when they're reasonably ready. Why do they give a **** whether they control Eloy in 2025."

This line from Owen really sums up where I stand. Not so clear with Kopech, but it is definitely time for Eloy to face MLB pitchers and, if there are growing pains, go through them up here. He's got nothing left to prove down here. Challenge him.

And IMO, being good in 2025 depends not on whether we control Eloy, but on whether we are able to draft well and develop talent in our farm system (and do some effective FA shopping). To use the Royals as a recent analogy, we could truly go to the moon and be stuck right back here in the doldrums by 2023. Eloy and Kopech can make us legit contenders in 2020, but they're not going to keep us up there forever. Forget about 2025- we'll cross that bridge later.

Edited August 3, 2018 by The Sir

[SonofaRoache]

1 hour ago, Sleepy Harold said:

One common argument that I've seen for calling them up now is that if the Sox waited until April '19 (to have control until 2025) that it would leave a bad taste in their mouths and they would walk once free agency hit after 2025.  The "call them up now crowd" say promoting them now puts the org in good graces with the players (which I could buy, it makes sense to a point).  To play devil's advocate, there's a lot that could happen between now and then that could have them fall out of favor with the Sox brass (not saying it will happen, just playing devil's advocate for this exercise). What I find interesting is that nothing guarantees that if they're called up now, that they would be more willing to sign extensions with the club after/prior to the end of 2024 when they'd be able to walk, rather than guaranteeing yourself (from the club's perspective) the extra year of contract control and trying your hand at an extension.  Sure, they may in fact do so, but they could also both walk a year early, and then what?  I don't think anyone can say for certain that an extension would be more likely to happen because they were called up now unless you're Eloy or Kopech. 

Personally I thought that they would already both be up by now (I had predicted July to some friends before the season began), but since they aren't, I'd rather have the one extra year of control while they're still in their primes, rather than risk losing them a year earlier.  It's not necessarily me siding with management on this either, I'd say it's more of me being selfish and wanting to have these players play on the Sox for as long as possible (if they truly develop into the impact players we think they will be).  I'd love to see them both up here and playing, because of course it would make the team more watchable and exciting, but I've been very patient thus far, what's a little more time when you think of the bigger picture?

Just my 2 cents, enjoyed reading the convo, it was very entertaining! 

I think the point is you have to spend more time making them happy AND convincing them to stay. 1 extra year is nice but it would be nicer if we can get a second contract. We are a mid level organization so we have to play nice. If the player leaves anyway, then you tip your cap. At least you were fair and had integrity. 

[Y2Jimmy0]

52 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

I think the point is you have to spend more time making them happy AND convincing them to stay. 1 extra year is nice but it would be nicer if we can get a second contract. We are a mid level organization so we have to play nice. If the player leaves anyway, then you tip your cap. At least you were fair and had integrity. 

The Sox can't be a mid-level organization anymore. They don't receive the same perks in the draft, internationally and in free agency that mid-level organizations are afforded. The White Sox need to become the big market behemoth that major league baseball classifies them as. 

[Jake]

Tangentially related: Have there been proposals to reforming the system governing control of minor league players that could potentially alleviate this problem? I know you could have everything timed from draft/signing date, or maybe age, but I've always been interested in whether there's a good way to do it that rewards teams for developing players without either incentivizing early or delayed call-ups.

[southsider2k5]

This is a great discussion.  The fun part is, there is no right answer.  The answers are years down the road when we see if Eloy needed the extra development time, and if he decides to split town or extend to stay here for the long term.

For my two cents with the struggles that we have seen, I have no problem risking an extra year of control to get some of these kids here and exposed to the major league level so as to learn on the job.

[bmags]

I just can't get over how predictable this was. Eloy was doing very well in AA but not the screaming "promote now" stats that he has in AAA.

Sox could have easily avoided this by just waiting to promote him to AAA until aug 1. Then fans would only be waiting 2-3 weeks in april rather than 8 months for the inevitable.

[SonofaRoache]

5 minutes ago, Jake said:

Tangentially related: Have there been proposals to reforming the system governing control of minor league players that could potentially alleviate this problem? I know you could have everything timed from draft/signing date, or maybe age, but I've always been interested in whether there's a good way to do it that rewards teams for developing players without either incentivizing early or delayed call-ups.

They can do something where the first team to have the player play in 300 MLB games has their bird rights. This would mean the team could offer an extra year as a team option they can pick up. To make the player happy, this additional year option would pay a percentage more money than the previous year. If a player isn't worth it, the team can decline the option. 

[Dam8610]

I like the idea of buying out the next 7 years and bringing him up now. Solves the concerns of everyone.

[ptatc]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

This is a great discussion.  The fun part is, there is no right answer.  The answers are years down the road when we see if Eloy needed the extra development time, and if he decides to split town or extend to stay here for the long term.

For my two cents with the struggles that we have seen, I have no problem risking an extra year of control to get some of these kids here and exposed to the major league level so as to learn on the job.

The only right answer is that whichever opinion KW has is the wrong one.

[Balta1701]

A couple items I'm going to add to the list because why not. Back in 2015 and 2016 when we were rushing everyone up to the big leagues in order to save the seasons, there were 2 more arguments made for why it was ok to bring people up early that have yet to be noted in this case. I think they're poor reasons to rush a guy to the big leagues, but when a guy shows that he's ready I would consider them additional minor reasons for a callup.

1. When a guy gets called up to the big leagues, he gets to work with the best coaches and training staff in the organization. Previously this has been used mostly to say that pitchers get to work with Cooper, but throw in Herm as well here. The best facilities, the guys who have the best chance at teaching him how to hit big league pitching and helping him stay healthy are in the big leagues, not in Charlotte. 

2. Holding him down in the minors does not just have an effect on him, it has the potential to have an organizational effect. When a guy who has earned a callup gets one, that is a message to everyone else in the organization that if they focus and do their jobs, they will be treated fairly and get their shot. Conversely, all the 18-20 year olds in the minors in our organization right now are looking at Eloy Jiminez and thinking "S***, they're going to play this same game with me aren't they?". 

Again, they're minor things. I don't believe they're good reasons to call a guy up when his on the field performance does not support it, but as far as this discussion is concerned we have a guy who has done all he can to demonstrate he's ready for a callup based on his play and I don't remember seeing these noted, including in this article. 

[Dick Allen]

I don't think anyone questions whether he deserves a call up, but this is one time the White Sox can use the rules to their advantage. Not being in contention doesn't put any pressure on them to field the best team possible. In future years, other guys in Eloy's spot probably won't be held back because they will make the team better, and they will be trying to win. So get the extra year of control instead of watching him play meaningless games we have seen plenty of others look really good playing and then falling apart when they actually meant a little more. The delay isn't going to hurt him. Is Tatis Jr. going to be set back forever even if he makes a full recovery, by not playing these final months? Lebron James probably could have played in the NBA when he was a sophomore in HS. Did playing against HS guys a couple years kill him when he went to the NBA? Eloy will be fine either way. Do something for the team. He doesn't have a large body of work above A ball. It's not egregious if he doesn't get called up. 

With Kopech, I agree with Law as far as pitchers go. Trying to determine what they will be 7 or 8 years from now is pretty close to impossible. Call him up whenever, although we are getting to the point of innings limits, so you might as well wait until next year. If you want and need White Sox precedent, John Danks pretty much sat out September 2007, and was probably at his best in 2008.

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

With Kopech, I agree with Law as far as pitchers go. Trying to determine what they will be 7 or 8 years from now is pretty close to impossible. Call him up whenever, although we are getting to the point of innings limits, so you might as well wait until next year. If you want and need White Sox precedent, John Danks pretty much sat out September 2007, and was probably at his best in 2008.

Just to note, Kopech currently has pitched 106.1 innings this year. He pitched 134.1 last year. If he pitches out the month, then we can talk about him being at the point of innings limits, but I definitely want him throwing >40 more innings this year barring other issues.

[Dominikk85]

I think they need to keep him down longer. I think it won't be april but next super two.

Btw I don't think this will be a problem. Yeah he will hate that but those top10 overall prospects don't sign extension anyway, they wait for free agency and then take the best offer no matter what happened before.

The guys you can extend are the guys who are good out of nowhere like odubel Herrera, adam eaton or jose ramirez.

Edited August 4, 2018 by [email protected]

[Lillian]

What if he comes up and performs so well that the Sox drop from #3 in the Draft, to #5 or 6?

[Y2Jimmy0]

2 minutes ago, Lillian said:

What if he comes up and performs so well that the Sox drop from #3 in the Draft, to #5 or 6?

I don't see any way that they move the meter this much. I think the Sox are pretty locked in at #3 overall 

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, Lillian said:

What if he comes up and performs so well that the Sox drop from #3 in the Draft, to #5 or 6?

That would be great news, IMO.  Every single component that comes and plays like they belong is good for the rebuild.

[Dick Allen]

Just now, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I don't see any way that they move the meter this much. I think the Sox are pretty locked in at #3 overall 

I would think so, but you never know. The free fall Detroit put on last season was impressive. The Sox still have a lot of games left vs teams that have called it a season. It could get NBA bad.

[Lillian]

With Rodon and Avi back, Omar hitting and both Lopez & Giolito back on track, add Eloy to that team and who knows. Oh, and I forgot Palka.

And then there is always the chance that Moncada stops taking strike 3 and decides to get a hit, instead.

Edited August 5, 2018 by Lillian

[Y2Jimmy0]

3 minutes ago, Lillian said:

With Rodon an Avi back, Omar hitting and both Lopez & Giolito back on track, add Eloy to that team and who knows. Oh, and I forgot Palka.

Lets say they win today's game. They'd be 40-70. 52 games remaining. 26-26 would put them at 66-96. I think 66-96 gets them the #3 pick pretty easily. I also don't think this team with Kopech and Eloy on it can finish .500. They are really bad. I'm pretty confident that they'll pick 3rd. 

[flavum]

4 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Lets say they win today's game. They'd be 40-70. 52 games remaining. 26-26 would put them at 66-96. I think 66-96 gets them the #3 pick pretty easily. I also don't think this team with Kopech and Eloy on it can finish .500. They are really bad. I'm pretty confident that they'll pick 3rd. 

We could take this over to the other thread, but the Padres are under .400 now, with 50 games left. 20-30 finishes their season at 63-99. I would suggest the Sox lose 101 games to get the 3rd pick. Hopefully they land in MInneapolis with 100 losses already. 

[Y2Jimmy0]

8 minutes ago, flavum said:

We could take this over to the other thread, but the Padres are under .400 now, with 50 games left. 20-30 finishes their season at 63-99. I would suggest the Sox lose 101 games to get the 3rd pick. Hopefully they land in MInneapolis with 100 losses already. 

I think it's a stretch that Sox even go like 20-32 but lets say that happens. They'd be 60-102. That gets you the 3rd pick IMO. 

[Dominikk85]

17 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I don't see any way that they move the meter this much. I think the Sox are pretty locked in at #3 overall 

 

Not Sure about this, the Padres really sold a lot at the deadline, they are now a much worse team than in the first half. However I think draft position should be only a secondary consideration here, service time is the bigger reason.