Not even the FutureSox staff agree on Eloy promotion timing - a discussion

[wrathofhahn]

On 8/3/2018 at 10:13 AM, Sleepy Harold said:

One common argument that I've seen for calling them up now is that if the Sox waited until April '19 (to have control until 2025) that it would leave a bad taste in their mouths and they would walk once free agency hit after 2025.  The "call them up now crowd" say promoting them now puts the org in good graces with the players (which I could buy, it makes sense to a point).  There's a lot that could happen between now and then that could have them fall out of favor with the Sox brass (not saying it will happen, just playing devil's advocate for this exercise). What I find interesting is that nothing guarantees that if they're called up now, that they would be more willing to sign extensions with the club after/prior to the end of 2024 when they'd be able to walk, rather than guaranteeing yourself (from the club's perspective) the extra year of contract control and trying your hand at an extension.  Sure, they may in fact do so, but they could also both walk a year early, and then what?  I don't think anyone can say for certain that an extension would be more likely to happen because they were called up now unless you're Eloy or Kopech. 

Personally I thought that they would already both be up by now (I had predicted July to some friends before the season began), but since they aren't, I'd rather have the one extra year of control while they're still in their primes, rather than risk losing them a year earlier.  It's not necessarily me siding with management on this either, I'd say it's more of me being selfish and wanting to have these players play on the Sox for as long as possible (if they truly develop into the impact players we think they will be).  I'd love to see them both up here and playing, because of course it would make the team more watchable and exciting, but I've been very patient thus far, what's a little more time when you think of the bigger picture?

Just my 2 cents, enjoyed reading the convo, it was very entertaining! 

The argument of "oh no you've pissed off x" is completely without merit because the money is gone they aren't getting back regardless of what they do in FA.

In fact the later a player hits FA the more leverage you have to sign them to an extension and buyout their FA years. Take Machado for example. He was brought up at age 19 didn't really hit for 3 years until he got to age 22.

Looks like the classic case of a guy brought up early. I assume because of the Orioles magnanimous gesture he signed an extension that bought out his prime years 26 onwards. Oh wait he didn't. Strange. It's almost like bringing him up early makes him more of an attractive free agent and less willing/more expensive to negotiate an extension that buys out his prime years.

Would he have been more willing to sign an extension if instead of being brought up at age 19 was brought up at age 22? At that point he'd be what 29? I mean it's just math.

People are making emotional arguments and not looking at the facts.

[TheTruth05]

13 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

The argument of "oh no you've pissed off x" is completely without merit because the money is gone they aren't getting back regardless of what they do in FA.

In fact the later a player hits FA the more leverage you have to sign them to an extension and buyout their FA years. Take Machado for example. He was brought up at age 19 didn't really hit for 3 years until he got to age 22.

Looks like the classic case of a guy brought up early. I assume because of the Orioles magnanimous gesture he signed an extension that bought out his prime years 26 onwards. Oh wait he didn't. Strange. It's almost like bringing him up early makes him more of an attractive free agent and less willing/more expensive to negotiate an extension that buys out his prime years.

Would he have been more willing to sign an extension if instead of being brought up at age 19 was brought up at age 22? At that point he'd be what 29? I mean it's just math.

People are making emotional arguments and not looking at the facts.

If they’re studs Sox will have to pay to keep their own no matter what,it’s not like they will remember being brought up in late 2018 allowing them to FAs earlier will make them re-sign at a discount.