Delmonico or Palka?

[Jose Abreu]

I have a feeling Palka will win this but I wanted to know who was preferred to stay here when Eloy comes up. Since sending down Engel would mean that only Leury would be capable of playing CF, I don't see that one happening.

 

Last 28 days: 

Delmonico: .257/.333/.629 for a .962 OPS

Palka: .273/.298/.655 for a .953 OPS

 

If you had to pick one to keep, who do you take? 

[caulfield12]

I think Davidson also has to be considered, but get the logic of choosing between the two lefties with similar skill sets/deficiencies.

With Palka so hot again at the moment, he will win.

But there are arguments for both players.  All or nothing, exit velocity and terrible RF vs. a more consistent stroke, lots of doubles and a more competent fielder.

3 platoon guys who we can’t combine into just one, unfortunately.

Edited August 6, 2018 by caulfield12

[harkness99]

None of them really have enough AB's to know much - however Palka appears to have the greatest upside.

 

Davidson has had more AB's... not saying he has had enough to know. 

[Jose Abreu]

Davidson is probably worse than both, especially since the end of April, but for whatever reason I don't see the organization cutting ties with him.

[southsider2k5]

Actually one of the most interesting parts of this is how much Palka's defense has rebounded since he got up here.  The first time I looked at his defensive number, he had something like a -55 UZR.  He has cut his RF UZR to -25.6 in RF over 240 innings of work.  In LF he has played almost nuetral in the 101 innings he has been out there at -2.  His full season work is actually only -18.4, which means he is learning on the job.  He's still bad out there, but not historically bad anymore.  On the season, Palka is actually a + player at 0.2 fWAR, which honestly surprised me.

This year in terms of fWAR, Delmonico and Palka have been pretty identical players, with Palka taking a lead if his LF defensive numbers are accurate.

[Dick Allen]

Ultimately, it most likely won't matter. Nicky looked like a pretty good hitter last year, has kind of regressed. Palka is pretty much HR or bust, and Davidson is almost exactly what he always was, but he has added some walks. 

I would rank Nicky #1 on this list, probably Davidson #2 because he is righty, and Palka #3 as I think eventually they will figure out how to pitch to him where he doesn't hit so many HRs. But it's tight, and IMO doesn't really matter, although it will be an interesting decision if no one is traded  or injured and it comes to it.

 

I think from a sustainability perspective, Palka is probably lacking. 

Edited August 6, 2018 by Dick Allen

[SoxAce]

It's pretty much do you prefer OBP/a guy that can actually take a walk or the SLG/power hitter who has had timely homers.

[Superstar Lamar]

I hope this question has no relevance to the team by 2020

[he gone.]

Hopefully this is a roster question we look back at in 2020-2021 and can laugh at, but is a valid question right now. I think each has a skill that we could use and each obviously lacks in a category or two. Ask this question in April and people are  saying Davidson could be a real long term piece. Ask after Palka has been on his HR barrage (& at important times) and people are going love Palka. If we are looking at who fits in long term though? I think Nicky has the best chance of being your super-UTIL guy. At least he can slot in a few more places and seems to have a better eye. Palka's appeal is obviously his HR potential. Kind of reminds me of Jose Canseco (in Sox era, not A's). If forced to rank? I'd say Nicky, Palka, Davidson. There's going to be a heck of a lot of decisions like this to make in the next 12 months. A lot of fringe guys that need to prove themselves or find themselves in no mans land. I for one think Davidson should be the next gone. He's had the most chances/AB's to prove himself from Charlotte to the Sox and although he had a nice April, since then he's kinda proven he's not going to be apart of your long term plans.

[Jose Abreu]

35 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Actually one of the most interesting parts of this is how much Palka's defense has rebounded since he got up here.  The first time I looked at his defensive number, he had something like a -55 UZR.  He has cut his RF UZR to -25.6 in RF over 240 innings of work.  In LF he has played almost nuetral in the 101 innings he has been out there at -2.  His full season work is actually only -18.4, which means he is learning on the job.  He's still bad out there, but not historically bad anymore.  On the season, Palka is actually a + player at 0.2 fWAR, which honestly surprised me.

This year in terms of fWAR, Delmonico and Palka have been pretty identical players, with Palka taking a lead if his LF defensive numbers are accurate.

I'm glad to see some positive trend in Palka's defensive numbers but his statcast defensive metrics are still awful: 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catch_probability_leaderboard

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I'm glad to see some positive trend in Palka's defensive numbers but his statcast defensive metrics are still awful: 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catch_probability_leaderboard

Yeah, not saying he is great or anything, but it has gotten significantly better.

[Jake]

This is a pretty difficult question and will ultimately be decided by the scouting expertise of our management because the performance of the players involved won't settle it.

I will say that my feeling is you simply can't demote a guy in Palka who has hit so many homers, especially recently, and especially in such important situations.

Davidson, in my view, is not going to be seriously considered largely because he can play an adequate 3B and isn't in competition for reps in the OF — even if his presence at DH indirectly competes with the outfielders who are rotating through there.

Delmonico hasn't done anything to deserve a demotion, but if I just accept the premise of the post and say I have to pick one or the other, I have to pick Palka for the reasons stated. Part of this is based on my feeling that although Delmonico has surprised with his ability to play MLB-caliber defense (don't confuse this for a ringing endorsement), upon seeing him play in the majors for a while I'm not seeing the upside with his bat.

Delmonico's 2017 in MLB was much better than his 2017 in AAA, which always merits suspicion. Sometimes you see that because he started off slow and was called up once he hit his stride, but this was not the case for him last year — if you split his AAA season into two two-month parts, the first two months he had a .850 OPS and the second two he had a .675 OPS. That's after a .700 OPS run over 70 games the previous year in AAA. If you look at Statcast data, you would get the impression his 2017 in MLB was tremendously lucky. He had an anemic 82.5 mph average exit velocity, a .232 expected batting average (actual batting average was .262) and a .390 expected slugging (actual was .482).

Here's a chart of his homers last year:

Everything to the dead pull side and a number of them not very deep. Same story this year.

Nothing about his batted ball metrics stands out as impressive and they would suggest he just doesn't have anything better than an average power tool. He has some ability to get to that power tool, but wastes most of it on grounders and liners.

Which brings me to the next thing that concerns me about Nicky...

Last year, he was only shifted on 11% of the time. This year, 44%. His wOBA against the shift is .217 vs .387 w/o the shift. He's actually made better contact this season per Statcast, but his luc caught up with him and so did the scouting reports.

To Nicky's credit, he makes contact, takes walks, and is disciplined. He just doesn't produce and I'm not optimistic he will even if his good approach does make him destined for some hot streaks.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Palk Smash is one of Benetti's best calls. It highlights his flair for the dramatic. Having a guy on the bench that can hit one out is important as is the LH power bat in the lineup at DH. Might not matter in the future but for now it brings some excitement to the team sorely lacking in that category.

[Jake]

8 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Palk Smash is one of Benetti's best calls. It highlights his flair for the dramatic. Having a guy on the bench that can hit one out is important as is the LH power bat in the lineup at DH. Might not matter in the future but for now it brings some excitement to the team sorely lacking in that category.

Back before the expansion of bullpens, every NL team tried to keep a guy like Palka on their bench to match him up at some point late in the game as a pinch hitter.

[Greg Hibbard]

After 1000 MLB PAs, you know what you have with Davidson - a 30ish homer guy. You need to see if Palka actually could be a 40ish homer guy.

I'd jettison Davidson and keep both Palka and Delmonico for now. Delmonico is just finding his 2018 groove IMO.

[southsider2k5]

The realistic answer to this in three years should be D.) None of the above.

With the amount of OFs we have coming through the system, at best these guys are just future tradebait and PH's.

[The Sir]

14 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The realistic answer to this in three years should be D.) None of the above.

With the amount of OFs we have coming through the system, at best these guys are just future tradebait and PH's.

At what point can they prove that they're not just that?

Let's say Eloy comes up and does what we all expect him to do. LF of the future. Meanwhile, Palka hits 30 HRs next year, and because he cuts down on Ks a bit and learned to take a few more walks, his OPS goes up to .850. Does this again in 2020. Defense improves to passable in RF.

Robert takes over in CF and is as advertised. The remaining notable OFs are Basabe, Rutherford, Adolfo, Gonzalez and maybe a few others. They're doing good, but still mere prospects, while Palka is a 29 year old with three more years of control who has proven he can and will hit 30 bombs in a year from the left side. When do you flip the switch and recognize that your prospects are the actual trade chips?

Not saying it will happen, but I think as high as we get during the rebuild that certain prospects are the future, we ought to consider possible usurpers. It's a good problem to have.

[Dick Allen]

Leury should probably be playing CF most of the time these days, but he can't stay healthy, and they need him to fill in other spots.

Of most of these guys, he's the one who can survive the roster crunch when and if this team gets good.

[Dick Allen]

1 minute ago, The Sir said:

At what point can they prove that they're not just that?

Let's say Eloy comes up and does what we all expect him to do. LF of the future. Meanwhile, Palka hits 30 HRs next year, and because he cuts down on Ks a bit and learned to take a few more walks, his OPS goes up to .850. Does this again in 2020. Defense improves to passable in RF.

Robert takes over in CF and is as advertised. The remaining notable OFs are Basabe, Rutherford, Adolfo, Gonzalez and maybe a few others. They're doing good, but still mere prospects, while Palka is a 29 year old with three more years of control who has proven he can and will hit 30 bombs in a year from the left side. When do you flip the switch and recognize that your prospects are the actual trade chips?

Not saying it will happen, but I think as high as we get during the rebuild that certain prospects are the future, we ought to consider possible usurpers. It's a good problem to have.

If the White Sox ever have too many good players, I will do cartwheels around the entire concourse. Attrition will take care of a glut, if there ever is one, it always does. 

[The Sir]

4 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

If the White Sox ever have too many good players, I will do cartwheels around the entire concourse. Attrition will take care of a glut, if there ever is one, it always does. 

True. It might be that Rutherford is knocking on the door, and Adolfo is still shiny enough to trade for something proven, and the rest of the guys went the way of Jameson Fisher.

My point though was more of "a bird in the bush is worth two in the hand." If Robert and Eloy are budding superstars in two thirds of our OF, and Palka is a very solid player in the other third, do you want to give him less ABs just to see if Rutherford's nice AAA production translates to MLB production? Is he still the trading piece, or is Rutherford? What do you think?

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, The Sir said:

At what point can they prove that they're not just that?

Let's say Eloy comes up and does what we all expect him to do. LF of the future. Meanwhile, Palka hits 30 HRs next year, and because he cuts down on Ks a bit and learned to take a few more walks, his OPS goes up to .850. Does this again in 2020. Defense improves to passable in RF.

Robert takes over in CF and is as advertised. The remaining notable OFs are Basabe, Rutherford, Adolfo, Gonzalez and maybe a few others. They're doing good, but still mere prospects, while Palka is a 29 year old with three more years of control who has proven he can and will hit 30 bombs in a year from the left side. When do you flip the switch and recognize that your prospects are the actual trade chips?

Not saying it will happen, but I think as high as we get during the rebuild that certain prospects are the future, we ought to consider possible usurpers. It's a good problem to have.

Once they sustain success beyond what they were projected to do, we can talk about them being long term building blocks.  So far Palka/Davidson/Delmonico haven't been anything more than we thought possible... which isn't a whole lot.  If they cross over into an arena where they could be potential starters, and we still have the minor leaguers forcing the issue, you move those guys to fill other holes or replenish the minors  again.  If Palka/Davidson/Delmonico force themselves into the long term picture, that would be a great problem to have.

[Balta1701]

19 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

If the White Sox ever have too many good players, I will do cartwheels around the entire concourse. Attrition will take care of a glut, if there ever is one, it always does. 

I think it’s worth reminding that this franchise has signed players to nearly $80 million in contracts to try to find left handed hitters to fill their DH spot in the last decade alone, and that’s despite them not thinking they were competitive for 3 seasons in that time span. If either of these guys can hit decently, that’s another role it would be really nice to not spend a lot of money on.

[Jack Parkman]

Launch Davidson to the moon. Get him out of here. Keep both of these guys. You can never have enough left handed sticks. 

[Dam8610]

5 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

I have a feeling Palka will win this but I wanted to know who was preferred to stay here when Eloy comes up. Since sending down Engel would mean that only Leury would be capable of playing CF, I don't see that one happening.

 

Last 28 days: 

Delmonico: .257/.333/.629 for a .962 OPS

Palka: .273/.298/.655 for a .953 OPS

 

If you had to pick one to keep, who do you take? 

Looking at those slashlines, it looks like Delmonico can take a walk and provide similar power, so I'd pick him based on that.

[he gone.]

I wonder what this conversation would have looked like 3 weeks ago before Palka started launching timely home runs.

I think his ceiling is mediocre Adam Dunn without the walks. To say 35HR's is a real possibility, but .220 batting average is likely with not drawing enough walks.

As a poster pointed out above Nicky had a nice rookie season but then the league caught up. Once the book is out there are shifts and they manipulate where to pitch you. The real talent shines through to who can REadjust the adjustments from the opposite side. Thus far Nicky is struggling to do so, but may in due time. Davidson proved he could take a small step forward and take walks, but hasn't done much else to be relevant as a part of the future. Palka is likely to fall victim to pitching and team adjustments to his game soon too. Once teams realize that the man can launch HR's all day they'll find his weakness (plenty to pick from when you're batting .220 and no walks) and they'll exploit that along with shifts or whatever as well. I think a regression is in the works for Palka as well, but in this day and age of launch angles and exit velocity I think he has the best chance to be SOMETHING but probably a 2 year Band-Aid at best.

 

Other band-aids (guys who can start now, are decent, but not world beaters include Yolmer, Leury, Nicky barely) The key is to go from Band-Aid to possible solution (Avi, Anderson, etc.)