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Offseason trade idea: Sox-Reds


Jack Parkman

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13 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Yes, Hahn definitely said this was something discussed, but what I am going at is two middle of the list guys aren't getting you a top of the list guy.  If you want a top 50 talent, you will have to trade a top 50 talent to get it.

Yeah, that I understand. Suarez would cost Robert and Cease +++, and Senzel would cost Madrigal and (SP)++, I'm assuming 

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1 minute ago, yesterday333 said:

What about Rutherford and an arm for India? Would we be willing to do that?

Depends on what you mean by an "arm".  If we are talking about Dunning/Cease/Hansen or something like that in our top 10, the Reds would listen.  If you are talking about the next tier of Stephens/Adams/Lambert, I can't see it happening.

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1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

Depends on what you mean by an "arm".  If we are talking about Dunning/Cease/Hansen or something like that in our top 10, the Reds would listen.  If you are talking about the next tier of Stephens/Adams/Lambert, I can't see it happening.

I think Cease or Dunning alone would get us India... They are ranked around the same area, why would India be worth more?

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2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

I don't think that they'll get an offer for Rodon this offseason, they might but I don't think any team will bite yet. But if he's still rolling next year at the AS break, with him only under team control through 2021, the fact that the "window has been pushed back by a year at least" as you say it is going to make moving Rodon awfully tempting. Long enough of a run of success + the White Sox's window...

Rodon is the ticket. He might bring two top 50 prospects NOW. Imagine if Oakland or Arizona or even Pittsburgh, Milwaukee or Philly had Rodon in rotation. It would definitely shift the power balance and conceivably put a team into the PO mix. Sox could fill a couple of needs if they wanted to dangle Rodon.

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5 minutes ago, Flash said:

Rodon is the ticket. He might bring two top 50 prospects NOW. Imagine if Oakland or Arizona or even Pittsburgh, Milwaukee or Philly had Rodon in rotation. It would definitely shift the power balance and conceivably put a team into the PO mix. Sox could fill a couple of needs if they wanted to dangle Rodon.

That is what the Sox would/should ask for, but there is zero chance he makes it through waivers to get a deal done.  I also don't see anyone offering that return based on the SSS we have seen so far this season.  Maybe if he he finishes out the year this way they get the offer in the off-season, but it doesn't seem reasonable for the August deadline.

 

The problem is if he is pitching like that, you push the rebuild back a season by giving away an ace and trying to find another one internally.

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24 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Yes, Hahn definitely said this was something discussed, but what I am going at is two middle of the list guys aren't getting you a top of the list guy.  If you want a top 50 talent, you will have to trade a top 50 talent to get it.

Or a major league talent with 5 years of team control like Lopez

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1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Or a major league talent with 5 years of team control like Lopez

Also valid.  Rodon is another guy who could bring back a guy like India/Senzel if he keeps pitching like this.  I doubt the Reds would have interest, but he is the type of player that would bring back that type of prospect.

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5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Also valid.  Rodon is another guy who could bring back a guy like India/Senzel if he keeps pitching like this.  I doubt the Reds would have interest, but he is the type of player that would bring back that type of prospect.

For sure. I just wonder if Lopez is a better fit for a team like the Reds since they are still rebuilding but getting close to competing and wouldn't have to unload their top young talent in a trade like they would with Rodon. I think Rodon is likely more appealing to a team like the Brewers or Pirates who appear to be in win-now mode. That's why I was thinking Hayes is another 3B prospect to target, particularly if they have any faith in the long term prospects of 25 year old Colin Moran.

Edited by JUSTgottaBELIEVE
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27 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

My point is I don't see Cincy doing this for Stephens (or someone from that level) and Rutherford.

I understand what you are saying but India is ranked 55 and Rutherford is 88. They are both 21 but Rutherford is playing  (and succeeding) at a higher level. I get why India is ranked higher but is he really that much higher? If I am in their position I would consider Rutherford and Stephens, but it really comes down to how highly you value Rutherford.

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2 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

Why can't the Reds transition India to a corner outfield spot if there is a logjam in the infield?

Reds need pitching bottom line. Why not trade from a position of strength? It makes sense from their perspective. They could transition India to the outfield perhaps but does he have the same value in LF as he does at 3B? Likely not.

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2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

The Sox aren't trading for a guy like Senzel or India.  Those guys would require so much capital as to be practically untouchable.  Think of a 3B more in the Ryan Cordell mold of impressive numbers, but less regarded.  Maybe someone blocked at the major league level.  We aren't dealing for a top 50 prospect without giving up a big time guy in return.

This is what I'm thinking of in a prospect for prospect for prospect type swap. We know teams called the Sox about Cordell as it has been reported. But the deals I am thinking are more of a guy maybe in a team's 10-20 range in his mid-20's getting to the point of no longer being called a prospect. No top prospects.

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If we’re doing a prospect for prospect trade, the OFs I imagine being on the table are Basabe, Rutherford, Adolfo, & Gonzalez.  So realistically you’re looking at a 3B prospect in the 80 to 150 range best case scenario.

The guys that make the most sense IMO are Colten Welker & Ke’Bryan Hayes.  Welker is blocked by Arenado now, but even if he leaves the Rockies will still have Story & Rodgers on the left side of their infield.  I could see them being very interested in one of four OFs.  As for Hayes, it depends on how they view Moran.  He hasn’t been great this year, but also hasn’t been terrible.  If they feel he can still be the answer, they may be interested in one of our OFs as a potential replacement for Dickerson when he hit free agency after the 2019 season.  Admittedly that seems like more of a long shot, but I think I’d like Hayes over Welker simply because he’s further along.

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1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

That is what the Sox would/should ask for, but there is zero chance he makes it through waivers to get a deal done.  I also don't see anyone offering that return based on the SSS we have seen so far this season.  Maybe if he he finishes out the year this way they get the offer in the off-season, but it doesn't seem reasonable for the August deadline.

 

The problem is if he is pitching like that, you push the rebuild back a season by giving away an ace and trying to find another one internally.

I spent last year saying that we were going to win the world series in 2020. I can't say that any more.

The rebuild has already been pushed back a season. Rodon can't be traded now...but this offseason we might have a shot at getting the right kind of return, and if he keeps this up, by next trade deadline he should be able to.

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1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

I spent last year saying that we were going to win the world series in 2020. I can't say that any more.

The rebuild has already been pushed back a season. Rodon can't be traded now...but this offseason we might have a shot at getting the right kind of return, and if he keeps this up, by next trade deadline he should be able to.

Regarding the opening of the contention window, I think the handling of Kopech and Eloy is very telling. They’d be up with the big club already if the front office had any intentions of competing in 2019. The optomistic opening of the contention window is 2020 but 2021 is more likely at this point. With this in mind, Rodon should absolutely be on the block over the next 12 months if a good opportunity presents itself especially since their control over his contract really doesn’t align with the anticipated contention window.

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5 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Regarding the opening of the contention window, I think the handling of Kopech and Eloy is very telling. They’d be up with the big club already if the front office had any intentions of competing in 2019. The optomistic opening of the contention window is 2020 but 2021 is more likely at this point. With this in mind, Rodon should absolutely be on the block over the next 12 months if a good opportunity presents itself especially since their control over his contract really doesn’t align with the anticipated contention window.

There are teams out there that could do it, the Braves and Astros come to mind as decent fits who are competitive right now and who could very well have a need this offseason for a starting pitcher with multiple years of control. Step 1 he has to dominate the last 2 months, like make people look constantly bad. 

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43 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

There are teams out there that could do it, the Braves and Astros come to mind as decent fits who are competitive right now and who could very well have a need this offseason for a starting pitcher with multiple years of control. Step 1 he has to dominate the last 2 months, like make people look constantly bad. 

A trade centered around a Rodon-Whitley swap would be very enticing...

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2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

I spent last year saying that we were going to win the world series in 2020. I can't say that any more.

The rebuild has already been pushed back a season. Rodon can't be traded now...but this offseason we might have a shot at getting the right kind of return, and if he keeps this up, by next trade deadline he should be able to.

I never thought that was realistic with the time lines of the players we got in our deals. 

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2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

I spent last year saying that we were going to win the world series in 2020. I can't say that any more.

The rebuild has already been pushed back a season. Rodon can't be traded now...but this offseason we might have a shot at getting the right kind of return, and if he keeps this up, by next trade deadline he should be able to.

No offense, but saying anyone is going to win the World Series three years out is pretty stupid.  Regardless, I’m not sure the timeline has really changed.  2019 was always going to be a development year.  Guys like Moncada, Anderson Giolito, & Lopez could take massive leaps and change the entire equation of the rebuild.  There’s a non-zero chance that guys like Jimenez, Kopech, Burdi, & Hamilton are impact players fairly quickly and speed things up.  Then there is the ultimate wild card that is free agency.  Point is we have no idea how things will look a year from now.  2020 can still be part of our contention window.

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I think if the Sox make a trade where they're moving young prospects it wouldn't be for a top top prospect. That's really hard to pull off. The cost for Senzel would be Kopech. Even then I doubt the Reds do it.

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42 minutes ago, raBBit said:

I think if the Sox make a trade where they're moving young prospects it wouldn't be for a top top prospect. That's really hard to pull off. The cost for Senzel would be Kopech. Even then I doubt the Reds do it.

True, but I would think a Rutherford for India swap may be a little easier to pull off.  These trades don't happen often, and the Hahn even noted as such in the Garfien podcast, but the Sox do have a glut of OF and it makes a ton of sense to try to flip one for a 3B.  Easier said than done though, no doubt. 

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1 hour ago, raBBit said:

I think if the Sox make a trade where they're moving young prospects it wouldn't be for a top top prospect. That's really hard to pull off. The cost for Senzel would be Kopech. Even then I doubt the Reds do it.

Looking at the MLB top 100 prospects, Senzel is ranked #4.  Eloy is ranked #3.  Anyone willing to make that trade?

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